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About drbubb

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    Tri-Millennium Guru

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    Hong Kong & London
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    Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

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  1. In the future... "when something comes by, you can chase it" The story of 'Oumuamua, the first visitor from another star system | Karen J. Meech / 2 / Why Oumuamua May Have Been The First Sign of Intelligent Life with Dr. Avi Loeb
  2. UK Perspective -posted last week Where are we in the 18 Year Property Cycle? | The Property Podcast #415 I am not sure if I agree with their Timing. But I have been away from the UK for too many years to have a strong opinion The main takeaway this the "approximate two years WINNERS CURSE period that comes at the end of the Up-phase. We saw that in PHL into the end of 2019
  3. CASH BUYER’S BOMBSHELL Comments #2 : In 18 Year Cycle, the downturn is 3-5 years, not 1-2 years TOUGH LOVE is still Love, even if you don't want to hear it. Sometimes only genuinely good friends can deliver bad news and have it heard. If you can accept the news, and tackle the problem, then you can act before it gets worse, and you will greatly improve your chances of thriving in the future. Being in denial and staying there may get you to a situation which progresses towards something worse and evetually becomes hopeless. Then, you may have no more good choices, only truly painful ones. Right now, you can see so many Condo property ads headlined with words like "Bargain," "Sacrifice," and "Firesale." When you look closer, you see a property priced at maybe 5-15% off the pre-covid highs. That's not a true bargain, when rents are down 30% or more - if you are lucky to find a good tenant at all. Some even talk of "blood in the streets" pricing. But that is not what we are seeing. Most reductions are just very minor cuts, like paper cuts that might not even need a bandage. Real blood, means losses for the seller, not just a reduced profits. Those are coming. If 2020 was the year of falling rents. Then, 2021 is likely to be the year of falling prices - big reductions. I mean drops of 20%, 30%, 40%, and more, off the top. Why do I say this? Because, owners with reduced cash flow are bleeding, and struggling to cover their bank loans. The banking sector has held off on foreclosures so far, but they will not hold off forever. In fact, the B-wave relief rally that we are seeing now - that's how I see the current market - may be providing last good chance for some lucky sellers to escape with minor losses. The current off-covid-lows-Rallly may not last many more weeks or months. Those with debts to pay, will start hitting bids. and prices will fall. Buyers will catch on, and realise they can just sit and wait for lower prices. Sellers will be forced to lower their prices to get any buying interest at all. Waiting will cost the sellers money, and bring more negative cash flow. Moreover, the buyers who are easy prey are already being harvested. The cash buyers that have used their funds already will have less cash to buy the flood of Condos coming onto the market in the fearful months to come. Buyers will get more cautious as they find that Condos are harder to rent. There are hundreds of vacant condos, in individual buildings, and more new condo buildings are being completed within each new quarter. Post covid, visitors and workers will return, but this is more likely to be a trickle rather than a flood. And they will have to absorb the growing excess of supply, before rents will stabilize, firm up and head higher. I reckon peak rents will not be exceeded for another 3-5 years, I have studied property markets over decades. There is a repeating pattern. Books have been written about it. Youtube videos made too. And I will share one with you below. Fred Harrison has described what he calls a "LONG CYCLE in Property", lasting about 18 years. The natural pattern tends to be: 14 years up, followed by 3-5 years down. And we entered the "3-5 years down:" phase just over one year ago - so by that reckoning there are still 2-4 years to go. My own best guess right now, is the ultimate low may be around the end of 2024. I might change my view on that someday. But for now, I see no reason to adjust. The worst, and nastiest part of the decline may be dead ahead, within 2021, as banks push defaulting owners towards foreclosure. On top of that, Buyers of pre-selling properties may halt their payments, and claim MACEDA remedies, asking for half their payments back. This will force more supply into the market, and could put severe stress on most property developers too. They won't be able to deny that they will have big trouble sticking to their present skyhigh, delusional prices. If developers start selling price 10% or more below prior levels, what will that do to the secondary market, that relies heavily on cash buyers? Price cuts of new condos will shatter confidence for years to come, not just a few months. LEARN MORE about the 18 year property cycle here: pay particular attention to the "winners' curse period, those 2-3 years at the end of the upcycle, where buyers think they are lucky, but after the peak and downturn, they find they may be lumbered with an unprofitable property for years to come. The "Winner" who bought wasn't lucky, he/she was cursed with bad fortune in buying. Property Crash Cycle - Introduction to Fred Harrison's 18 Years > (Let me know if you want to see more comments like this or not, I have several more comments queued up.) #1 : We are in A Buyers Market #2: In the 18 Year Cycle, the downturn is 3-5 years, not 1-2 #3 : I won’t Sacrifice my cash unless it is a genuine bargain #4 : What “professional” Cash buyers want: High Rental yields #5 : The problem with Bank loans #6 : Sellers can finance too #7 : Yeah, Own Use buyers are different, but they may buy just 1 #8 : Yes, Virginia, we have a BUYER’s chat XX : Foreclosures?
  4. Easy come, easy go. His buying of BTC looked like pure desperation... to maintain TSLA's overvalued stock price. TSLA-etc ... from 1/2018, 1/2019, 1.1.2020: 10d/
  5. CORE-4 PHL Property Developers - Chart Update: ===
  6. CASH BUYER’S BOMBSHELL Comments #1 : We are in A Buyers Market Hey folks, let’s embrace some reality. We are now in a correction, and it is a Buyers market. And that requires some new ways of thinking and doing business if you want to be successful as an agent. I have been investing in property markets for more than four decades all around the world. And what I am seeing in the Philippines now is my 5th or 6th Bear market for property. Many agents may be too young to have been professionals in the last one in Manila, from 1999 to 2004. And this one may be worse than that was, especially for Condos. I see too many Listings repeated on various platforms, with the same prices again and again. Pre-Covid prices are not going to fly for condos now. Buyers are smart, and they know it is a bear market. And Cash buyers are scarce, so if you want to close a deal with one, you had better make some efforts to understand their requirements and goals. If you are going to wait for the Sellers market to return, you may have a long wait… until 2023-24. Or even longer. Why do I say this? Just look around at how empty Condos are now, and consider how many are under construction all around, Makati, BGC, Ortigas, and all around Greater Manila. 100,000 mainland Chinese came to live and work in Greater Manila when there were just 125,000 condos. And now over half have gone home, and the number of completed condos continues to grow, by more than 10,000 a year on average. What new group will replace the “now missing” Chinese tenants? (Let me know if you want to see more comments like this or not, I have several comments queued up now #1 : We are in A Buyers Market #2: In the 18 Year Cycle, the downturn is 3-5 years, not 1-2 #3 : I won’t Sacrifice my cash unless it is a genuine bargain #4 : What “professional” Cash buyers want: High Rental yields #5 : The problem with Bank loans #6 : Sellers can finance too #7 : Yeah, Own Use buyers are different, but they may buy just 1 #8 : Yes, Virginia, we have a BUYER’s chat XX : Foreclosures? (These are just some headings, and I will add the full comments later)
  7. Partial conversation with agent who listed units for sale at The RISE Makati The funny thing was… how she could not understand my objective: Ag.: Hi Sir do you like I will help you find units to your requirements? What properties do you need? Me: I am looking only for True bargains, where I can expect to earn 8-10% Gross rent. I also want them to be in or near Makati CBD. Same with my group of buyers, who has a similar YIELD objective Ag.: How many units do you need? Me: NEED? I need a high yield, that's my objective Are agents so unaccustomed to dealing with professional property investors? (Like I said, in a longer discussion, I decided she was okay and doing her genuine best, But these sorts of questions I found to be hilarious. What types of buyers does she deal with? Maybe she see investors who have tenants they are looking to move into units. The questions seem strange cuz I think there must be some other BARGAIN Hunting investors in PHL. Ag.: Do you need studio, 1BR or 2BR? What location do you like? Me : I think we mostly target 10 Million and under (but I cannot rule out paying more than that eventually). And I is hard to go over P 150k per square meter, if the yield target is to be met. Some of our time is spent in trying to work out what rents can be achieved. And that determining Rents can be a bit tough to do right now Ag.: I will help you look for properties. Is P190,000 per sqm okay for your group? Me: At that price... P 190k x 8%, P15.2k / 12 = p1266 per sqm rent. Is there anywhere getting such a high rent? I really doubt that. Most are at 800-1000 OR LESS these days, We are seeing rents of under P 700 per sqm now at serendra 2/ Me : What is the highest yield you are seeing now for sale?/ Ag.: (NO ANSWER to my question. On Best Yield… and she moves to another question.) Ag.: What locations of properties do you prefer? ME: Makati CBD, or the immediate area. Some of the group also like BGC... and a few the area in Mandayulong, near Boni/Shaw stations. There are bargains elsewhere maybe. But i and others may not have a sense of Rentals we can achieve, and that is essential knolwedge for our target returns (At that point I could see I was probably wasting my time. The conversation continued a while longer, but I asked my self, does this agent even know how to calculate Yield?, and why it is important.)
  8. RISK ON again? BONDS (tlt) may have bottomed, & we are set for Hunter's "melt-up" Chart. update: SPY: $383.63 +$6.93, +1.84% IWM: xx, Nasdaq: xx TLT: xx (n/t: x.) Ratio: SPY-to-TLT: $383.60 / $140 = r 3.50 xx
  9. GOLD: closed well above the early lows - is it fully washed out now... Ready to rise? / "Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for February from the U.S. Labor Department showed the key non-farm payrolls number up 379,000 compared to forecasts for up 210,000 in February. The unemployment rate was 6.2%. The better-than-expected jobs report is putting moderate downside price pressure on gold and silver futures this morning.... The precious metal has become oversold and generally despised recently, as sentiment has reached levels of previous bottoms. I also expect the latest Gold Commitments of Traders (CoT) report, issued later today, will show spec long liquidation from last week down to levels not seen since before the breakout of a 6-year base below $1400." ( Gold chart ) Gold got pushed down on the jobs figures and slide after the opening (GLD’s Low was 158.55, down 0.31%, Gold hit $1691), but Gold recovered later to over $1700. GDX/ Gold stocks were actually UP 1.3% on the day... Sym.: Close : + chg. , +% Chg., High. : Low : GLD : $159.14 +$0.10, +0.06%, 159.82, 158.55 GDX : $31.78 + $0.41, +1.31%, $31.88, $30.90 GDXJ: $45.61 + $0.54, +1.20%, $45.69, $44.00 Nugt : $52.45 + $1.42, +2.78%, $52.71, $49.60 TLT. : $138.91 + $0.27, +0.19%, 139.34, 137.99 ==== When we look back. we may find that the LOW for Gold stocks was Wed's opening. I bought NUGT $40 calls at around $14.50 = breakeven of $54.50. Take a look at the NUGT High of the Year ($171) That is something to dream about! ====
  10. Haha, Musk/. PS Rock Hunter: Perseverance moves arm and looks at rocks in latest pics from Mars
  11. Aris Gold Virtually Opens The Market ARIS-etc... update: 10d/ Last $2.31 / GCM: $5.68 = r-40.7% Objective: "to build the next globally relevant gold producer" TORONTO, March 4, 2021 /CNW/ - Neil Woodyer, Chief Executive Officer, Aris Gold Corporation. ("Aris Gold" or "the Company") (TSX: ARIS), and his team joined Arne Gulstene, Head, Company Services, TMX Group, to celebrate the Company's graduation from TSX Venture Exchange to Toronto Stock Exchange and open the market. About Aris Gold is a Canadian mining company listed on the TSX under the symbol "ARIS". The Company is led by an executive team with a demonstrated track record of creating value through building globally relevant gold mining companies. Aris Gold operates the Marmato mine in Colombia, where a modernization and major expansion program is underway, and the Juby project, an advanced exploration stage gold project in the Abitibi Greenstone belt of Ontario, Canada. Aris Gold's objective is to build the next globally relevant gold producer, with management having successfully created Endeavour Mining and Leagold, and members of the Board having successfully created Wheaton River Minerals, Goldcorp, and Yamana Gold. Aris Gold will continue to pursue a strategy of acquiring operating gold mines and projects nearing construction with the aim of creating value through diversification, mine and corporate-level optimizations, investing in expansions and near-mine exploration, and active portfolio management. https://arisgold.com/home/default.aspx
  12. TLT / Bonds Bottoming? (gold to rally soon?) Charts: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $138.90 ? Weak bonds (rising rates), may have stretched Stocks to the breaking point?... Chart. update: SPY: $376.70, IWM: xx, Nasdaq: xx TLT: xx (n/t: x.) I think Hunter might have it right. and I see a possible bounce level on my charts (about $135) at the top David Hunter: Stock Market Is NOT Crashing Yet.. Major Melt-Up Underway: Gold & Silver to Explode Hunter's Tweets: David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian· Mar 5 I think T-bonds are in the process of a successful retest. Could see a 15 point rally in TLT over the next couple of months. Remember when the 10yr was at .60 six months ago, I forecast a rate rise to 1.40-1.50% when no one else was even contemplating it. It pays to be contrary. Mar 5 I continue to expect a significant rally in T-bonds in coming weeks. That in turn should prove supportive for gold & silver. I remain bullish of both. My targets remain unchanged, gold $2500 & silver $45-$50.Sentiment has gotten quite negative,particularly on gold. That's bullish. Mar 4 Commodities have had quite a run in recent months & look like they may correct for a bit here.Everything from oil to copper to the grains look like they may need a bit of a breather before heading higher.If so,this would fit with my call for a bond rally before rates move higher. ===
  13. “One million humans on Mars… in 10 years time” What does Elon Musk know? Linda Moulton Howe on Donald Trump & Elon Musk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9xTxrGTlXs
  14. And MORE too... Great cameras... and a Listening device are now there ! Amazing Video: See Mars Like Never Before! NASA's Perseverance Rover Sends New Video and Images of the Red Planet NASA’s Perseverance Mars Rover safely touched down on the Red Planet on Feb. 18. So what will the robotic scientist "see" on her descent and what will she do next? Join mission experts for update about the rover – the biggest, heaviest, cleanest, and most sophisticated six-wheeled robot ever launched into space – including imagery it captured and its mission to explore Mars. / 2 / Landing spot: "On the bank of an ancient river" NASA Perseverance Update: New Images, Sounds and What We Know So Far =
  15. Weird POP & DROP in ROX price... on 5.58 million shares Chart: 6 mos / ROX : 1.62 -0.13, -7.43% / O: 1.74, H: 2.25, L: 1.59 The Roxas Group underwent a corporate reorganization in 2008 to separate its sugar and real estate businesses into two listed firms. RCI — the mother firm — focused on real estate, while Roxas Holdings, Inc. (RHI / ROX) focused on sugar. RCI eventually sold 31% of its stake in RHI to Manny Pangilinan’s First Pacific Co. Ltd. First Pacific currently controls RHI/ ROX with 62.89% ownership, followed by RCI with 20.56% ownership.