Jump to content

drbubb

Super Admins
  • Content Count

    110,859
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

0 Neutral

About drbubb

  • Rank
    Tri-Millennium Guru

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://www.globaledgeinvestors.com
  • ICQ
    0

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Hong Kong & London
  • Interests
    Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Recent Profile Visitors

17,032 profile views
  1. You are gonna get wipe out, Bobby!
  2. "Gold outperforms CRB inflation in the Long term" - this chart from 2006 demonstrates that... CRB -vs. GLD/Gold, DBA, and XLE ... from 2006: 2010: 2015: 2020 / 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: xx /xx (down from xx) from 2015: 2019: 2020: Mar.2020: 10d / CRB: 28.10 (xx) , XLE: 81.77, DBA: 22.24, GLD: 172.03 ($1830) From Mar.2020: 10d /. CRB Index (and Oil?) have been the top performers since the start of the Covid shock. ==== Feb’20: Jul’20: 5.20.22: 2/20>5/22 CRB.it $00.00 : $00.00 : $28.10 : + xxx% $CRB: 100.00e 100.00e 100.00 : +xxx%? XLE : $10.00 : $10.00: $81.77 : DBA : $10.00 : $10.00: $22.24 : GLD : 148.38: 100.00: 172.03 : +15.9% Gold: $1000.: $1000.: $1,830 :: From end Feb'20, GLD/ Gold has been the weakest of these four. Oil stocks (XLE) have also outperformed CRB for most of the years since 2000 Ratio - down 63.6% from the Peak Ratio (16.16x) of Gold-to-CRB
  3. GOLD versus Housing - Look for Home prices to fall I like to look at the Ratio between Gold and PHM, one of the largest Homebuilder - now less than Half the peak ratio (91x) My opinion is that rising rates will hit Homebuilders more than it will Gold, or Gold shares The Fed caused 'housing inflation,' this is when home prices will drop - Danielle DiMartino Booth "the bidding wars have ended... the few honest realtors will tell you"
  4. Mega-Bullish on Gold (and Gold shares) Gold is now very cheap vs. CRB too - see above: down -63.6% from 16.16x to 5.89x CRB (as Oil etc, rose) Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2 ( Here's a big bull, who cite the Cup and Handle formation ) : Peter Grandich: The Most Bullish Precious Metals Setup in my 38-Year Career "People who put their money in Bitcoin may find they have lost so much, they don't have enough left to come back to Gold." "The Cup-and-Handle chart is the most bullish Gold chart I have seen in my 38 years" - at 18 minutes in. He is also a big fan of Uranium, and more specifically on Cameco
  5. INFLATION, CRB and Oil Prices $CRB Index ... 5years GOLD to CRB : R- 5.89x Some might use that chart to say: "GOLD doesn't protect you against inflation" (though very long term charts suggest otherwise.) Others will say: "This just shows how cheap Gold is now." USO etc - from 2009: mid-2015: Oct.2018-W: Jan'2020-D: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% USO etc - from mid-2015: 2yr: 1yr :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% USO etc - from 2009: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% Ratio: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% 5yr fixed: 3yr Below :: WTI Crude to Gold : $00. / $00: Ratio: 5.97% US DOLLAR could be peaking here at/near 105-110. DXY: All: 10yrW: 5yrD: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 102.93, YrH: 105.01
  6. HOW DO I STOP a parasite like Bobbyinvok? You Owe me big time, Azhat, for all the time, I have wasted deleting your unwanted posts. If I find a way to get even, I will
  7. ANOTHER QUESTION on Tandem buying "Interesting and great to see that this idea has pushed through..." Q: What is the embedded financing cost for the tenant? It has to be rent + financing in order to make sense for the seller because otherwise he has an opportunity cost of not getting the money right away. Financing the unit is also an additional incentive to buy after 2y because otherwise the money is gone. A: There are some difficulties in answering that question: 1. How do you value the extra discount obtained, because the purchase was originally negotiated as a cash purchase? (My view is that it bring enough savings to pay for ALL of the extra cost to buyer#2. If not, maybe seek another property where the discount is larger.) 2. How do you value the option? Surely it is not correct to value it at Zero. (If you value it fairly, then there might be no extra finance cost. Option values depend on strike and implied volatility. If the 2nd Buyer has to wait. The same price may not be there, in fact the option strike price might not even be obtainable. Addition advantage for TOB is: If the market slides, the 2nd Buyer can seek a different property to buy. That flexibility has real value in a highly volatile market.) 3. Renting a property where you have an option to buy encourages different behaviour. So if you compare this situation to a straight tenancy, you are ignoring the "positive feedback loop" which might benefit both parties - when it comes to buying furniture, and taking care of the unit, upgrading it, etc 4. After one year, the option might be extended, even if this flexibility is not written into the contract. The deal cut to extend then will probably look different than if the first year had not happened. If the TOB insists, some form of agreed extension might be written into the original contract. == In short. If you try to work out an "imbedded finance cost", You will likely have to make some assumptions that ignore or undervalue some of the advantages implicit in the deal. Okay to do that, but you need to understand it is a narrow way of looking at the deal. BTW, the initial questioner has come back with further questions about how the Option/Rental period might be extended. Under a 1 year deal, the upside for Buyer#1 is capped for 1 year, at maybe 20%*. What would the want in return for capping it a second year? Above market rent? Increased strike price? Maybe a little of both. / in my example, the purchase price is 27% below zonal valuation. So capping the 1 year return at 20% would be a meaningful curtailment of the return. The main advantage to Buyer#1 - OCB is having a committed tenant from day1. /
  8. TANDEM BUYING : committed tenant gets option to buy The ideal situation might be one where one party has cash, and the second one lacks it at the inception, but can raise the funds needed to buy later, such as after one or two years. This helps the second buyer who does not want to miss out on bargains in a depressed market. Searching together, they gain control over a property where potential buyer#2, the TOB/ Tenant-Option-Buyer will live in the property until he/she finally decides whether to buy it or not. Controlling a property in this fashion may give the assisted buyer time they need to build savings and find a bank which will provide an attractive mortgage loan. It works off the very-real assumption that a Cash buyer who can move fast can sometimes get a substantially lower prices than one who needs to go through the slow process of getting a loan approved through a bank. ( And there may also be other reasons why buyer#2 needs more time.) This could work especially well in a market like that of 2022, where there are distressed sellers who might give as much as a 10-20% discount to a Full Cash buyer. That cash discount gives a higher return to the initial cash buyer - enough to pass on price advantage in great flexibility to the second who should still get a below market price. I have found several sellers like that recently. They wanted cash in a hurry, and will give a big discount. I bought one unit and referred another to a friend. I have not yet tried to approach these bargain purchases as tandem buys. But I think such an arrangement may work well in the future. ( Here's a Q & A about the idea ) : Let me try to explain it in a few words: Tandem buyers agree jointly what property to buy, and the final cash price to be paid. As well as the strike price on a possible resale, under an option granted to the tenant/ who may become buyer #2. If the original price is low enough, the rent may be around market levels, and the option price below market. Of the discount-for-cash is big enough, it can leave both parties in a favorable position. Buyer #1: OCB / Original Cash Buyer pays the cash to secure the property, at a discounted "Cash Buyer's" price Buyer #2: TOB / Tenant Option Buyer rents it, paying 12 months rent upfront. He gets a place to live, and in effect buys a purchase option on the property he rents. (Rental might be a little over market, unless they can secure a very low price.) At 12 months, TOB has an option to buy the property at a premium to original price, probably 10-15% higher than the original discounted cash price. Works best, if this original price was a big bargain and the Option price is still well below the Fair Market Value. This arrangement carries certain advantages for both tandem buyers. The main ones being these : Buyer#1 has a happy and committed tenant from day1, and the 2nd Buyer is actively involved, probably steering the search to find a property he/she wants. This is a CALL Option for TOB, so he/she is not committed to buy it. They will be living in it, and furnishing it, before agreeing to Buy. The decision to buy (or not) comes after a year. When they have settled in, and may have better access to cash or bank finance. If the parties agree, there might also be a second option to buy after the second year, if the two parties have agreed to extend. Albeit, the year two option price might be higher. ( Does this arrangement sound like it might work for you? I asked - I addressed this to a possible TOB, Tenant/ Option Buyer. Follow is an edited version of the conversation we had.) Q: #2, TOB will pay 12 months rent in advance like downpayment? A: Yes, you can think of it that way. But no more rent to pay after that payment, for first 12 months. That upfront payment might be very approx.10% of the property's discounted price. Going shopping as tandem buyers, allows the two to seek an excellent bargain in a depressed market like the current one. Finding a seller who needs cash. There are many like that in 2022. Q: Original Cash Buyer will have the rental property in his/her name? A: Actually , The OCB / buyer#1 will hold the physical Title with Seller's name on it, and the right to transfer in the title into his/her name once it is known if the option is not going to be exercised. If exercised, the title transfer will go to the TOB. It is anticipated that the CGT/DST will be paid then. If the option is not exercised, the original buyer will proceed to put it in his name. Q: It's also like a rent-to-own agreement with TOB? A: Basically, Yes. But it is an OPTION to Buy, not a contract to buy, though the wording and documentation must fit Philippines legal requirements. So we may need to discuss with lawyers how the documentation is crafted. BTW, OCB may want to make maybe a 20%+ return on exercise, but maybe half of that will be the upfront Rent payment. No exercise, means they will keep the property. TOB can stay on as a pure tenant. Or a new tenant might be found. Q: Ahh, so TOB needs to pay in full the amount with 10-15% higher than original price after 1 year? A: Yes, the strike price is subject to negotiable of course, but I would expect something like that, ie 10-15% higher. Remember the two parties go out together seeking an outstanding bargain price. They might only proceed if they can find a truly outstanding bargain. I expect some sellers will be so hungry for cash, they might give a 10-20% lower price than a buyer who needs a bank loan. (Bank loans can take months to process, and that may not be fast enough for the seller.) Q: So Both need to agree on which property to buy? A: Probably TOB will be the main one choosing the Property, but it must also be acceptable to OCS, since he/she will stick with it, if/when the option is not exercised. / Example: This makes sense because big bargains can be found now in the current market. We designed the idea around a studio that I found and a friend bought recently at just 2.9M, which is below the approx. 3.8M zonal valuation. A second buyer who jumps in on a deal like that would still have a bargain, they had an option to buy at 3.2M or 3.3M, after one year. Zonal valuation on this property was increased just a few months ago, and so it is unlikely that such a low price will be available next year. It took a few months to get the property decorated and rented. And it was rented at about P20,000, near an 8% gross yield. The tenant has no right to buy. A tenant who helps choose the property and gets a rent to buy, might be expected to pay a higher rent, such as 1% a month, P29,000. Or somewhere in between 20,000 and 29,000. The rent would be agreed before the purchase, and the original buyer could use the upfront rent to reduce the amount of cash he needs to buy. / OCB will be equally eager to find a good property, because OCB may be left with the property, if the Option is not exercised. They have a mutual interest in getting the lowest possible price. Q: What are the main advantage for buyer#2- TOB? For TOB: 1. THEY choose the property, 2. Take advantage of the huge discount to cash buyers, without actually having the cash, at a time when prices are distressed, 3. Get a place that they are happy to live in, and a chance to live in for a year before deciding to buy or not. 4. Save on CGT, as compared with two separate transactions, fully completed You think you are better off to wait? I doubt that, since very possibly the cash bargains of today, may not be around in 12 months time. In fact, it totally depends on what you can see and find in the current market. It makes sense to pursue this, if there are truly outstanding bargains available. If you cannot find a good one, then wait. I think you will find bargains. I helped my friend find one, and she bought it, 27% under zonal. Another friend is in process of buying a unit with a near 11% gross yield. It is also under zonal by a meaningful amount. ... ( Still pondering other issues, like...) Future Rental increases What if I won't have the cash to buy in 1 year, would it still be enticing to become a TOB? I don't know what will happen in the future. The principle reason for me to change my living situation is if the location is better than mine and/or if my rent is lower. A. This needs some deep thinking: Right now most Renters are completely unhedged against rising rents, if they do not own. That was why I bought my first property, all those years ago. I wanted to protect myself from rent rises in the future. In the end, the cheap and tiny flat I bought proved to be an excellent investment, since rent were shooting up at 10-20% per annum. And NY Condo prices began to appreciate rapidly as rents rose.
  9. US DOLLAR could be peaking here at/near 105-110. DXY: All: 10yrW: 5yrD: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 102.93, YrH: 105.01 USO etc - from 2009: mid-2015: Oct.2018: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% USO etc - from mid-2015: 2yr: 1yr :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% USO etc - from 2009: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% Ratio: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9% 5yr fixed: 3yr Below :: WTI Crude to Gold : $00. / $00: Ratio: 5.97% ===
  10. NENNER's CYCLES of WAR and GOLD + Up to 1/3 of our population may die in the next war ! + Gold cycle is up until 2027. Resistance is $2500, and then as high as $40K! + "Gold's short term cycle turned up this week" (yesterday, from when he said it) Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2 Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com Published May 17, 2022 114,157 Views > https://rumble.com/v153vff-third-of-global-population-killed-in-next-war-cycle-charles-nenner.html
  11. BOND MARKET will Lead the STOCK MARKET, says David Hunter " the Bond market has done the tightening... and is setting the tone" David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian 11hr ago - May 19th We're at or near important inflection points in many markets.Rates have topped & bonds look ready to run.USD appears poised for a big reversal to the downside.Silver & gold & the miners are beginning big runs to the upside & the equity markets are bottoming & poised for a melt-up TLT / Long Term Treasury Bonds ... YTD: 3mo: 2mo / Last: 117.18 +0.28, +0.24% yrL: 112.62 DXY / Trade-weighted US Dollar ... YTD: 3mo: 2mo / Last: 389.46 - 2.40, - 0.61% yrL: 385.15 IWM / Russell 2000 small Caps... YTD: 3mo: 2mo / Last: 389.46 - 2.40, - 0.61% yrL: 385.15 David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian For those of you who haven't seen it yet, here is my latest interview that I did on May 10th with Tom Bodrovics on PalisadesGold Radio. It will provide you with my latest thinking on the markets & all things macro. Here's a better link: David Hunter: Bond Market is Going to Force the Fed to Pivot - May 12th
  12. drbubb

    GOLD

    NENNER's CYCLES of WAR and GOLD + Up to 1/3 of our population may die in the next war ! + Gold cycle is up until 2027. Resistance is $2500, and then as high as $40K! + "Gold's short term cycle turned up this week" (yesterday, from when he said it) Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2 Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com Published May 17, 2022 114,157 Views > https://rumble.com/v153vff-third-of-global-population-killed-in-next-war-cycle-charles-nenner.html
  13. NENNER's CYCLES of WAR and GOLD + Up to 1/3 of our population may die in the next war ! + Gold cycle is up until 2027. Resistance is $2500, and then as high as $40K! + "Gold's short term cycle turned up this week" (yesterday, from when he said it) Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2 Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com Published May 17, 2022 114,157 Views > https://rumble.com/v153vff-third-of-global-population-killed-in-next-war-cycle-charles-nenner.html
  14. Daneric: Bonds are due Bonds are due for a bid, the wave count supports it. > https://danericselliottwaves.org/
  15. Mood On Wall Street Has Never Been More Apocalyptic; Tech Short Is Biggest Since 2006 by Tyler Durden Wednesday, May 18, 2022 - 06:35 AM One month after the April Fund Manager Survey was downright "apocalyptic" with the majority seeing a bear market and stagflation - yet nobody rushing to sell - and with optimism plunging to levels right before Lehman, today Bank of America published the latest, May FMS (available to pro subscribers in the usual place) in which the bank's doom-and-gloomy Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett (who most recently warned that the bear market will end when the S&P hits 3,000 in October) found that his view is shared by a growing number of even more apocalyptic Wall Street professionals, because the survey which polled 331 panelists managing $986 billion in AUM, revealed global growth expectations plunged even more compared to last month, and dropped to fresh all-time lows (net -72%) ... The next part came as a surprise to us, because it confirms that peak inflation is now consensus: that's because 68% expect inflation rates to drop coming quarters... ... with fewer and fewer (net 34%, down from 53% in April) expect bond yields to rise from here (but big difference with prior “big lows” Is 78% expect short rates to rise)... ... as investors still expect a total of 7.9 Fed hikes this cycle (up from 7.4 in April). Ther... > https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-wall-street-has-never-been-more-apocalyptic-tech-short-biggest-2006
×