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drbubb

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  1. First HALF Results, 2023. Net up +83%; Maximizing Land Vista Land & Lifescapes, Inc., one of the country’s leading integrated property developers and the largest homebuilder posted a net income of ₱5.8 billion for the 1st semester of 2023, up 83% from same period last year. The Company launched a total of ₱24.3 billion worth of projects across the country. Vista Land Chairman Manuel B. Villar Jr. said, “We are pleased with our performance for the 1st semester of 2023 as we have sustained our growth trajectory for the year. We have been launching more projects this year compared to last year. These launches will form part of our huge project pipeline, he added. It’s also a big factor in our reservation sales performance which generated a total of ₱35.6 billion for the 1st semester which is 12% higher from same period last year.” Our overall strategy for the group remains to be maximizing our land to its best use. The Company reported a consolidated revenue of ₱18.3 billion for the period which is up 8%. Real estate revenue registered at ₱8.0 billion while rental income amounted to ₱7.9 billion for the six-months ended June 30, 2023. Gross profit was at ₱4.7 billion while EBITDA amounted to ₱10.0 billion. Vista Land improved its gross margin by over 300 basis points to 59%. The Company also recognized a gain from the proceeds of insurance amounting to ₱1.8 billion. Core net income (excluding the gain from insurance proceeds) is at ₱4.2 billion for the period. “We continue to deliver improvements in our residential business while our leasing business sustained its growth momentum for the period, said Manuel Paolo A. Villar, President & CEO of Vista Land. We have seen strong and sustained demand in our residential developments both horizontal and vertical segments especially from our Overseas Filipino buyers which comprise about 60% of our total sales. In terms of our leasing portfolio, of over 1.6 million square meters of gross floor area of commercial assets consisting of 45 malls, 56 commercial centers and 7 office buildings, we are reaping the benefits from the increased foot traffic and return to normalcy. Our strategy of maximizing our prime land is ongoing implementation, as we have been launching more Vista Estates across the country. These developments are mostly vertical and commercial projects which are geared towards the higher end of the income spectrum demand. Currently our land bank has a total of 3,085 hectares and is spread across the country. Total assets stood at ₱335.4 billion as of end June 2023 while equity was at ₱129.3 billion. Net debt to equity at the end of the 1st semester is at 84%. Capital expenditure amounted to ₱12.2 billion mainly for construction and land development. Land acquisitions remained muted as the Company disclosed that they are looking at maximizing its existing land bank. > https://www.vistaland.com.ph/news/vista-land-registered-83-growth-in-bottomline-for-1st-semester-of-2023-launched-24b-worth-of-projects/
  2. Sy-blings bolster Premium Leisure subsidiary with P3 ... Bilyonaryo. 7 days ago — Premium Leisure Corp. (PLC), a company affiliated with the Sy family, is set to infuse up to P3 billion into the operations of its subsidiary, Sinophil Leisure and Resorts Corporation (SLRC). In a regulatory disclosure, PLC announced its plan to expand its investment through the subscription of additional common shares from the existing unissued capital stock and the authorized capital stock increment of SLRC. SLRC, a non-operating entity specializing in amusement, entertainment, and recreation, primarily holds an investment in Black Spade Acquisition Inc. This investment is notable for Black Spade Acquisition’s focused pursuit of identifying potential business combinations within the entertainment industry.
  3. GLD vs. UGL : from Nv.2019: UGL: 59.84 /GLD: 183.51= 32.6%; AGQ: 25.78 /SLV: 20.97= 122.9%. SIL: 23.95 SLV vs. AGQ : from Nv.2019: AGQ: 25.78 /SLV: 20.97= 122.9%. SIL: 23.95 update / GLD: top $2,089 / $194.45= r10.74 = ===== Date = : GLD : Gold : Ratio: XLE : TLT : LTPZ : TIP : TYX : 8.07.20 : 190.81: 2,060: 10.80: 37.18 : 169.9 : 88.55: 126.2: 1.23% 5.04.23 : 190.77: 2,039: 10.69: 78.11 : 105.2 : 60.90: 110.0: 3.72% 10.30.23: 185.10: 1,998 : 10.79: 84.91: 83.99: 50.43: 103.1: 5.04% 11.01.23 : 183.51: 1,986 : 10.82: 84.99: 85.10: 51.08: 103.2: 4.98% LTPZ: 51.08 + 1.30, +2.6% Gold Gbs / Usd
  4. BTC: $37.56k. HIVE ($3.13, 8.33%), RIOT ($10.36, 27.6%) are Lagging. 10d: was: $36.00k. HIVE ($3.09, 8.58%), RIOT ($10.21, 28.4%), w/IREN ($2.96, 8.22%) 10d: ===
  5. END OCT. RCR vs.TLT: F,V: Jul'22: YTD: 10d /TLT: Y.Curve -> S-Ltr: 10d: BL: M-Sh: US.Yield.Curve: 2yr: 5.08%, 10yr: 4.88%, 30yr: 5.02% at 10.31 REIT Dashboard, 10.31 4stk Areit: Mreit: RCR: Filrt: Last 32.80: 12.18: 4.74: 3.00: Div. P2.06: .982 : .391: .301: Old P2.06: .982 : .391: .301: Yld: 6.28%:8.06%: 8.25%:10.0% Rpt 6.46%:8.07%: 8.24%:10.0% 4Ave.= 8.15%, 6Ave=8.29% Ph10yr. 7.11%, 5yr: 6.69% +VREIT: 1.66, .1535, 9.25% (N/A +Ddmpr 1.28, .101, 7.89% (N/A RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 5,974: 1.5?% TLT, : TYX = US,LT: Prem. $83.58, 50.22=-5.02: 3.13% prev.3.33% === REIT Dashboard, 9.29 4stk Areit: Mreit: RCR: Filrt: Last 32.80: 12.30: 4.90: 3.04: Div. P2.06: .982 : .391: .301: Yld: 6.28%:7.98%: 7.98%:9.90% Rpt: 6.35%:7.97%: 7.98%:9.90% 4Ave.= 8.04%, 6Ave=8.18% Ph10yr 6.66%, 5yr: 6.38% +VREIT : 1.69, .153, 9.05% (N/A +Ddmpr: 1.30, .103, 7.92% (N/A RXI 9?.??/ PSEI: 6,175: 1.56% TLT, : TYX = US,LT: Prem. $88.69, 47.11=-4.71: 3.33% prev.3.42%
  6. MEG/ Megaworld since 2018, Last: P1.98 MEG sank, with rising rates, falling Bonds to a huge discount (-70%) below Book Value. Meanwhile, developers kept pushing New Property prices higher. Developer earnings are growing again, after Covid disruptions, and the capacity to pay higher dividends is growing too. Rising dividends are a likely pathway to higher stock prices, for most of the developers MEG vs.TLT: 1.98/83.58= 2.37% (Oct'23). : w/Mreit: The importance of TLT / Bond prices in driving developer prices cannot be under-estimated. Look at the STABILITY in the Historic Ratio between MEG and Bond prices... Time: MEG / TLT : Ratio Ye’18: 4.75 /121.1 =3.92% ye’19: 4.01 /137.3 =2.92% ye’20: 4.08 /157.2 =2.60% ye’21: 3.33 /146.7 =2.27% ye’22: 2.00 /100.7 =1.99% 2019-'22 Average: 2.45% 10/23: 1.98 /83.58 =2.37% Interest rate levels predicted MEG prices much better than rising NAV has.
  7. MEG since 2018, Last: P1.98 MEG sank, with rising rates, falling Bonds to a huge discount (-70%) below Book Value. Meanwhile, developers kept pushing New Property prices higher. Developer earnings are growing again, after Covid disruptions, and the capacity to pay higher dividends is growing too. Rising dividends are a likely pathway to higher stock prices, for most of the developers MEG vs.TLT: 1.98/83.58= 2.37% (Oct'23) The importance of TLT / Bond prices in driving developer prices cannot be under-estimated. Look at the STABILITY in the Historic Ratio between MEG and Bond prices... Time : MEG / TLT : Ratio Ye’18: 4.75 /121.1 =3.92% ye’19: 4.01 /137.3 =2.92% ye’20: 4.08 /157.2 =2.60% ye’21: 3.33 /146.7 =2.27% ye’22: 2.00 /100.7 =1.99% ’19-22. Average =2.45% 10/23: 1.98 /83.58 =2.37% Interest rate levels predicted MEG prices much better than rising NAV has.
  8. VLL-etc: Ytd: 1.60, ALI:32.20, MEG: 1.98, FLI: 0.61 update: 11.17 10.31: 1.60, ALI:32.20, MEG: 1.98, FLI: 0.61
  9. MODEL Portfolio, 10.31.23, OCT. APX. 2.58. 86,957: 224,349 200.0k 2.30 MEG. 1.98. 99,502: 197,014 200.0k 2.01 RCR. 4.74. 42,373: 200,848 200.0k 4.72 ==== ====: 622,211 600.0k Cash ==== ==== 400.0K 400.0k ===: Profits. +40,954: 40.9K. <gain Model ==== ==== 1063.1K 1000.k +6.31% WATCH Portfolio, 10.31.23 APX. 2.58 40,816: 105,305 100.0k 2.45 BEL. 1.18 86,957: 102,609 100.0k 1.15 FILRT 3.00 33,557: 100,671 100.0k 2.98 LTG 8.85 11,123: 98,439 100.0k 8.99 MAXS 4.00 25,062: 100,248 100.0k 3.99 RCI .460 196.08k 90,197 100.0k 0.51 ROCK 1.32 71,429: 94,286 100.0k 1.40 VLL. 1.60 59,880: 95,808 100.0k 1.67 Mreit 12.18 8,210: 99,998 100.0k 12.18 ====. ====. 887.6K 900.0k Cash* ==== ==== 100.0K 100.0k ===: Watch ==== ==== 987.6K 1000.k -1.24% + Model ======= 1,063.1 1000.k +6.31% Combined, M+W: 2050.7k 2000.k +2.53% Vs. PSEI. 5,974. 6,321 : -5.49% Outperformance : +8.02% *Profits: +sold half BTC at Php 166.5m, +10,889 (M) +sold half BTC at Php 195.0m, +30,065 (M) MY GOAL is to beat the Index by 1% per month. At +8% after one month, we are 7 months ahead
  10. VIRTUAL CONDO: Active management Helps! Some may say, how can you know how to avoid the "bad" stock? In reality, I did that, I under-invested in FILRT. I did not like the way that the FILRT dividend was shrinking quarter by quarter, so I down sized my investment in that REIT. Selling some. Taking some profits and losses on FILRT during the year. I accepted some small losses on shares sold. I was able to cut my average cost from P5.70 to just P3.73 now. That's P3.80 a share, adding back the small losses. Using my average cost of P3.80, I can recalculate the Updated portfolio, as follows: One year later, "with management": Update 10.23.23,. P 52,300 /Mo. Mon.: Areit: Mreit : RCR : Filrt : Cost: P2.25 P2.25: P2.25 P2.25: Nv22 31.50: 12.16: P5.06: P3.80: Oc23.33.20:.12.20: P4.72: P3.00 shsK: 71.50: 185.0: 445.0: 592.1: Value P2.37 P2.26: P2.10 P1.78: Total P8.51 >dv. : 6.39%:8.03%: 8.28%: 10.0% Ave.= 8.18% (Div.) P2.12: P0.98: 0.391: 0.300: Divs : 151.6: 181.3: 174.0: 177.6: === P685.k =P57.0k/ mo. 8.51M ====
  11. EXAMPLE: "KROMA 1BR CONDO" Portfolio from Nov. 2022 Example: Replicating Cash Flow For a 1 BR Reference Condo with a 9M REIT Portfolio. Orig., 11.07.22,. P 55,100 /Mo. Mon.: Areit: Mreit : RCR : Filrt : Cost: P2.25 P2.25: P2.25 P2.25: Nv22 31.50: 12.16: P5.06: P5.62: shsK: 71.50: 185.0: 445.0: 400.0: Value P2.25 P2.25: P2.25 P2.25: >dv. : 6.13%:8.06%: 7.63%: 7.39% Ave.= 7.34% (Div.) P1.93: P0.98: 0.386: 0.425: Divs : 138.0: 181.3: 171.8: 170.0: === P661.k = P55.1k/ mo. 9.00M One year later: Update 10.23.23,. P 52,300 /Mo. Mon.: Areit: Mreit : RCR : Filrt : Cost: P2.25 P2.25: P2.25 P2.25: Nv22 31.50: 12.16: P5.06: P5.62: Oc23.33.20:.12.20: P4.72: P3.00 shsK: 71.50: 185.0: 445.0: 400.0: Value P2.37 P2.26: P2.10 P1.20: Total P7.93 >dv. : 6.39%:8.03%: 8.28%: 10.0% Ave.= 7.90% (Div.) P2.12: P0.98: 0.391: 0.300: Divs : 151.6: 181.3: 174.0: 120.0: === P627.k =P52.3k/ mo. 7.93M PAPER TRADE: Tested over 1 year... + I identified a Balanced portfolio of 4 REIT stocks. + Included; AREIT, MREIT, RCR, and FILRT. + NOV’22 Portfolio cost 9m, Yield 7.34% + That is a monthly Aver. Of 55,100 divs./Rent ( Almost a year later, here’s what we have): + OCT’23 Portfolio value 7.93M, Yield 7.91% + That is a monthly Aver. Of 52,300 Divs/Rent = Return was -12%, and Divs are down -5.1% ACTUAL CONDO: + A year ago was about P13-14M Ask + Current value, maybe P14-15M Ask + Rental value might be 55k > 60K now ( But occupancy rate is only 60%, weak?) = So Bids might be 2-3M less than ASK COMPARISON comments. Drop in Virtual Condo; bad performer, FILRT Which lost over P1M, and div, dropped -29% Had the Virtual Portfolio, been only 3 stocks: Value would have been down just 3k, -0.03%; Despite benchmark TLT bonds being 11% down: Divs rose= 54,500/mo ave. to 56,600, +3.9%
  12. VIRTUAL CONDO Bulletpoints ( A stock investment plan with some real property references built in. Dividends are to replicate the RENTAL income of a Condo. Not necessarily replicate the precise Market Value of the Referenced condo.) + I have a new concept. The Virtual Condo Portfolio. + I want to show you. A way to start in property with less money & higher returns. + You can also start with small money. Like P100k or less. Stocks are more liquid and now offer higher returns than properties + I started a paper portfolio one year ago, to match a 1BR unit I own. I can show you the results as an example of how it works; + If you want to LIve in your target building, you can take the dividends from the Condo Fund RENT there; + When you build your Virtual Condo Fund to sufficient size and/or you finally find the Condo or house that is right for you, then you may have sufficient investment savings to make a purchase. You can buy your target property by liquidating the Virtual Condo. (ie. You sell your fund, to gain the cash to buy the property.) If you are a little short, you might top up, with some bank borrowing; so long as your credit rating permits it. IDEA's ORIGIN in late 2022: A ) What I discovered a year ago was... I could buy a 1BR Condo where I live for maybe 13M, and generate 55,000 GROSS RENT. Or spend just P9M and generate the same average monthly income from dividends. I was thinking, "I can Buy the Virtual Condo for about a 30% Savings, and hold it until the price gap gets smaller, or disappears." How do you think I did over 12 months? B ) I have the details. And will share. But I need people to understand that the notion of the Virtual Condo Portfolio is to produce AN INCOME, and not necessarily replicate a Valuation. If effectively replicated THE VALUE of the referenced Condo, then it never would not have been available at an approx. 30% discount about one year ago. EXAMPLE: My "KROMA CONDO" Portfolio from Nov. 2022 xxx One year later: xx + x + Can be COMBINED with Deferred Purchase. The virtual condo might be combined with a off plan buy. The idea being, you will using the Virtual Condo Funds to cover part, or all, of the balloon payment after several years This is an expensive time to buy condos and a relatively cheap time to buy stocks. So if you do both thru deferred payments you just might get the best of both worlds. If Rents and the VCP grow in value prior to the final payment being required. Some Cyclical Considerations Valuations NOW at this point in the Cycle favour REITS and Property stocks over physical property. When the GAP narrows, assuming it does, then other strategies might work better. In fact, one reason I developed this idea, was so I could MEASURE THE YIELD GAP with precision, and see how overvalued (vs. REIT stocks) that physical properties were. By calculating the COST of the Reit portfolio and comparing it with the property price, you can see clearly and dramatically how much extra you are paying to own a place to live. While waiting for the right moment to buy a physical property investment, you can avoid all its encumbent risks and headaches associated with owning a physical property.. ==== WHY SHARE this Idea? I haven't thought about making money on it. More of a pay forward charity concept. Free education. But someone could monetize it maybe. Wrap it somehow... perhaps with a Condo on deferred purchae EXAMPLE
  13. Finally, we have THIS Set-up... HK10 - All: 2010: Ytd: 10d/ Last: $10.44. (Range: $9.90 to 15.34 ). updated: 10.27 Vs. Etc: Jan'06: 2016: $10.44/ $17.38K = 60.1%, TLT: $85.0= 12.0% Since 2016: All: Ytd: $10.44/ Hsi: $17.38K = 60.1%, TLT: $84.37= 12.4% ===
  14. HIVE produced 1% of Bitcoin Production Hive Digital produces 269.5 bitcoin in September / 30d= 8.98 btc/ d. 2023-10-06 09:20 ET - News Release Mr. Aydin Kilic reports HIVE DIGITAL PROVIDES SEPTEMBER 2023 PRODUCTION UPDATE AND PURCHASE OF 1,000 S19K PRO ASICS Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. has released the unaudited production figures from the company's global bitcoin operations for the month of September, 2023, with 269.5 bitcoin produced in September. The company has maintained over 3.83 exahashes of bitcoin mining capacity on average for September, 2023, including ASIC and GPU BTC hash rate (all amounts in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated). Summary overview: Hive produced 269.5 bitcoin in the month of September, from ASIC and GPU mining operations, representing an average of 70 bitcoin per exahash, with an average hash rate of 3.83 EH/second for the month of September, 2023. Hive produced an average of nine BTC per day in September, 2023. Hive ended the month with 3.98 EH/s of mining capacity, including ASIC and GPU BTC hash rate, an 8.3-per-cent month-over-month increase. Bitcoin halving strategy Frank Holmes, executive chairman of the company, stated: "Hive was the first publicly listed crypto miner, listing on the TSX-V in 2017, and since then we skillfully and successfully navigated the last halving event in 2020, and additionally the bear markets of 2019, 2020 and 2022. Our team's track record, couple with our fiscal prudence, puts us in a strong position to weather the halving event next April. Our focus is to maximize ROI on bitcoin mining ASICs we purchase now, by making strategic acquisitions of only the very best offers in the market." Mr. Holmes continued: "For example, we made a series of Bitmain S19 jPro purchases in Q4 2022, and thus far they have already made an ROI of between approximately 80 and 105 per cent after accounting for electrical costs. Thus some of these investments are already free cash flowing, and the remainder soon will be as well." The company notes this variance in return on investment is accounted for by purchase price and delivery date. Mr. Holmes added: "We're laser-focused on acquiring high-efficiency bitcoin mining rigs at the best possible price. Hive produced an average of nine bitcoin per day in September, which is exactly 1 per cent of total bitcoin network block reward average of 900 bitcoin per day. We're doing this as a clean, green-energy-focused bitcoin miner. > https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!HIVE-3463971/C/HIVE
  15. ARIS.t .. 3yr: w/GOLD: Ytd: 10d. Last: C$3.53 (Range: C$2.69 to 4.92 ) Barrick Gold-etc: ARIS.t: C$3.53 / $16.33= 21.6% Globe & Mail says Aris Mining kept at "outperform". 2023-10-24 The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, Oct. 24, edition that National Bank Financial Markets analysts have reaffirmed their "outperform" recommendation for Aris Mining. The Globe's David Leeder writes that the National Bank stockpickers shaved their share target by a loonie to $5.25. Analysts on average target the shares at $8.04. Ahead of third quarter earnings season in the precious metals sector, the National Bank analysts say they remain constructive on spot gold prices over the next year. They warn, however, of near-term volatility. The analysts say in a note: "For concentrate producers, provisional pricing adjustments are generally expected to be modestly net negative for 3Q23 earnings with gold, silver, copper finishing lower quarter-over-quarter while lead was higher. A number of producers have guided to a back-half-weighted production year, and thus, we expect several companies to have increased production quarter-over-quarter. Several currencies including the BRL and MXN gained strength against the [U.S. dollar] and could prove to be headwinds for cost guidance." The Globe reported on Sept. 5, 2022, that Canaccord had reaffirmed its "buy" recommendation for Aris Mining when it was worth $3.64. Aris Mining produces 60,193 oz Au in Q3 2023 Aris Mining Corp. had third quarter 2023 gold production of 60,193 ounces, with 53,826 ounces from the Segovia operations and 6,367 ounces from the Marmato Upper mine. The Segovia operations maintained strong performance throughout September, building on the impressive record monthly production achieved in August. In the future, Aris Mining plans to provide quarterly gold production updates preceding the release of its quarterly financial statements. About Aris Mining Corp. Aris Mining is a gold producer in the Americas with a growth-oriented strategy. In Colombia, Aris Mining operates several high-grade underground mines at its Segovia operations and the Marmato mine, which together produced 235,000 ounces of gold in 2022. Aris Mining is currently advancing construction of the Marmato Lower mine expansion project, which will provide access to wider porphyry mineralization below the current Upper mine. Aris Mining also operates the Soto Norte project joint venture, where environmental licensing is advancing to develop a new underground gold, silver and copper mine. In Guyana, Aris Mining is advancing the Toroparu project, a gold/copper project. Aris Mining plans to pursue acquisitions and other growth opportunities to unlock value creation from scale and diversification.
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