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drbubb

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  1. CHASING A HOT MARKET ====== Marathon Oil, Andersons Plan to Build Ethanol Plants (Update3) July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Marathon Oil Corp. announced the first ethanol investment by a major U.S. oil company in 26 years, saying it plans to build plants with grains marketer Andersons Inc. to meet rising demand for the fuel additive. The joint venture's first ethanol plant, to be run by Andersons, would have annual production capacity of 110 million gallons, the companies said today in a statement. Ethanol plants of that size can cost as much as $195 million to build, said Linda Casey, a spokeswoman for Houston-based Marathon. Demand for ethanol, distilled mostly from corn in the U.S., is rising as refiners replace methyl tertiary butyl ether, the additive known as MTBE. U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in May said oil producers should invest more in renewable fuels such as ethanol, use of which will almost double by 2012 under legislation signed into law by President George W. Bush. ``We're going to see all the big refiners'' getting into ethanol production, said Gene Gillespie, an analyst at Howard Weil Inc. in New Orleans who rates Marathon shares at ``buy'' and doesn't own any. ``From both an opportunistic and a defensive point of view, it's almost a requirement.'' Marathon and Maumee, Ohio-based Andersons haven't decided on a site or target completion date for their first plant, the companies said. Formation of their 50-50 joint venture is pending approvals by the boards of both companies. Shares of Marathon rose 10 cents to $85.83 at 12:47 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Andersons jumped $4.25, or 10 percent, to $44.85 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. First Since 1980 Casey declined to comment on how many plants the venture may build. Marathon sees the venture as a means of ``ensuring reliability of supply,'' she said. The last ethanol investment by a U.S. oil company was the former Texaco Inc.'s partnership in 1980 with CPC International. Texaco, now part of Chevron Corp., abandoned the project in 1995, when it sold the business to Williams Cos. of Tulsa, Oklahoma. San Ramon, California-based Chevron is considering investing in ethanol plants, Chief Technology Officer Donald Paul said in May. Like Marathon, Chevron cited the need to ensure its own supplies of the additive, which reduces tailpipe emissions and improves engine performance. U.S. Senators Tom Harkin and Evan Bayh last year urged the Energy Department to investigate why refiners weren't using more ethanol. The Consumers Federation of America accused oil companies of boycotting ethanol to keep fuel prices high. Largest in the Midwest The largest ethanol-producing region in the U.S. is the Midwest, where Marathon is the biggest refiner. Marathon has been blending ethanol into gasoline for more than 15 years, Gary Heminger, president of the company's refining and marketing arm, said in today's statement. Marathon can refine 974,000 barrels of crude oil a day at its plants in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Minnesota, Texas and Louisiana. The company blended 550 million gallons of ethanol into gasoline last year and estimates it will need about 1 billion gallons a year as demand rises, Casey said. Andersons will procure corn for the joint venture's plants and will provide risk management and marketing, the companies said. U.S. ethanol makers Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc., VeraSun Energy Corp. and Hawkeye Holdings Inc. have sold or plan to sell shares this year at least partly to pay for expanding production. Hawkeye, the third-largest U.S. ethanol producer, is controlled by Boston buyout firm Thomas H. Lee Partners LP. Plant Conversion Buyout firms Riverstone Holdings LLC and Carlyle Group plan to join with Canada's Blackstone Energy Inc. in converting a Collingwood, Ontario, starch plant to ethanol production. The Carlyle/Riverstone Renewable Energy Infrastructure Fund I will buy a 77 percent stake in Collingwood Ethanol GP, which plans to start producing ethanol in mid-2007, Riverstone said today in a statement. The plant will have annual production capacity of 15 million gallons. Archer Daniels Midland Co., the largest U.S. ethanol producer, has seven plants with combined annual capacity of 1.07 billion gallons. @: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
  2. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The chart for GLD, gold etd... Also suggests that Gold may have reached the top of its trading range. A fall from here would not be surprising. I have puts on XAU, NEM, GG.
  3. the thread will create pages as needed - go ahead
  4. "How much would it cost? How would an investor make a profit?" THESE are important questions. If there is no clear return for "investors", you are not seeking investment, you are seeking charity
  5. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The upthrust seems to waning. Let's see if if will get back on track in US trading. As some here know, I have shorted US stocks in a big way on Monday- by purchasing stock index puts
  6. "Let me not explain more, but in the some next days my new reply to this forum would be good news about getting everything OK" THIS is very cryptic to me
  7. My view is that Time Travel is impossible, but traveling forward in time at different speeds is possible
  8. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Gold up to $319 ($619?) ... actually: $620.50 now I tend to disregard prices outside US hours, since any price action tends to get retraced during NY hours. But over the last 12 months, that has begun to change, with traders in theFar East and the Gulf taking a leading role in moving prices.
  9. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    i expect the august lows to be at least as low as the recent lows. and whatever happened alon the way,it is good to walk away from my first decent sized gold trade with a profit. but a $10k profit or loss is neither here or there in the context of my portfolio
  10. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    I sold over $250K of gold and silver today at modest profit ($10K?) on the theory that I will be able to buy it back cheaper in August. I originally bought the Gold at just over $600/oz., and felt a bit shellshocked on that $40 drop, so quick rally of the past few days brought meback into profit, after a few worried days. It may be that many others are selling here on "relief", and it will go much higher. If it does, I will benefit thru the Junior Miners and Explorers that i hold. But i definitely want to have some cash for possible August "bargain-hunting"
  11. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    SElling? Yes. And reasonably aggressively today during NY trading hours In my shortterm "aggressive" trading account, I have cleared out ALL the long positions. Now I have: record levels of cash, and some Puts on XAU, NEM which were bought today. I am still long Junior miners and explorers, but will be looking to clear some of those today, and early next week. I think $630-640 is possible on this rally, but the Good feelings may end by early next week, IF YOU LOOK at this Chart... It suggests that Gold may end here ($615) or rally to $640. I am clearing out plenty of my positions, but stay long many Juniors in case we get the rally to $640 or higher.
  12. Ok. What about the old paradox... You go back into time, and meet your own parents, and prevent them from having children. What then happens to this time traveller? Does he disappear, as soon as his involvement changes his own future? If this risk is real, is then the Time Traveller acting in an immoral way, since he may disrupt his own future and that of others
  13. drbubb

    Thor Mining

    This one (Thor) is not an overnight deal. It will take some time for the story to play out
  14. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    busy day- distracted elsewhere. missed a good opportunity earlier today to take profits on my gold share callls- for instance, ASA at $61 was a strong resistance. Fingers crossed that i will have another chance within as few days. i am hoping for another rally into the july 4th holiday for stocks and for gold shares
  15. Interesting to see Endeavour's involvement here. They have been a key force behind a number of companies which experienced rapid growth such as Wheaton River (which later merged with Goldcorp.)
  16. Iranian Einstein uses the word "dude"? I think not, Dudes and Dudettes
  17. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Not in a day, But such movements are possible. I will be selling into the action above $600 and $620, if/when we see it
  18. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Good question. Here are the reasons that I expect an August retest, or even a lower low in Gold and gold shares: + There is a strong seasonal tendency for August lows, especially in Gold stocks, + There was very heavy volume on the recent low, and markets like to retest areas of heavy volume, + A rally to $630 or even $650 would be nothing more than a normal correction of the sharp drop + We have broken an important upchannel, and after such break, i would expect a clear correction, and an a-b-c correction would be normal. so far, i see a complete a. we are in a b-wave, and are "owed" a c-wave + I think we will see a sharp drop in markets in August, and that may spread across the markets as Hedge Funds get caught with mass redemptions again. The hot money aspect of HF investors, and the redemption structurehas becomean important driver in a market environment where HFs have become such a big factor HAVING SAID THIS, there are no guarantees. ALSO, I am playing from the LONG side now, and betting that I will be clever enouugh to ride the market higher, and spot a sell window, before the slide into an August low starts. A dangerous game, that has worked for me in the past, but is impossible to play perfectly. So stay tuned.
  19. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    nice write-up with history of their comments on Zeal: Both gold and silver were also stretched to their most extreme technical levels in a quarter century, a warning sign that the probabilities favored a sharp temporary reversal to relieve these extremes. The odds were way out of favor for being long by early May. And from a game-theory standpoint, euphoria ran rampant. Most traders were wildly bullish right near the latest interim tops, as the majority always is, so there were few short-term buyers left. Thus trading probabilities based on historical gold and silver precedent and game-theory psychological considerations were screaming six weeks ago that a major precious metals correction was almost certainly imminent. To paraphrase a Bible verse out of Proverbs, the prudent saw the coming short-term metals danger and took refuge, but the simple kept right on buying and suffered for it. Markets take no prisoners. Now you are probably wondering what good it does to meditate on this ex post facto. To become a more successful speculator and investor, it is crucial to learn lessons from market pain. If you didn’t see this coming and prepare your portfolio accordingly, this event is a great impetus to deepen your own studies of the markets so you aren’t caught off guard next time. And if you are paying someone to help you navigate through this powerful commodities bull, and your advisor didn’t warn you beforehand in April and May about the ballooning odds and looming danger for a major interim correction in gold, silver, and the HUI, then you ought to fire him. There is no excuse, absolutely zero, for a professional to miss the ubiquitous warning signs before this recent selloff. At Zeal we and our clients were long these latest awesome gold, silver, and HUI uplegs early and were blessed with fantastic realized profits even before the euphoria set in by April. Yet as we were stopped out or sold our PM trades, we remained in cash since the odds of a serious correction were getting so large. Since then we have been building up cash war chests to buy the feast to come of amazing PM bargains at the next major interim bottom. link: http://www.zealllc.com/2006/pmcorrect.htm
  20. drbubb

    Columbia Metals - TSX-V: COL

    Up 7.5cents to 49cents yesterday: chart Rising volume too, but still in the moderate range
  21. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    "I think there's a good chance that the bottom already IS in for both gold and silver, based on 200dma support and hugely oversold RSI." ACTUALLY, It would not be surprising to me if: + Gold ralied form here for several days or even weeks, and + Then fell in August to retest the recnet lows are even slip below the lows. If that happened, and RSI was higher on the retest, then THAT would be more bullish than the present pattern
  22. If you are the real mammad, then tell us more. Otherwise, nice try
  23. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    As I have posted elsewhere, I reckon we will see a bounce now in Gold and Gold shares. probably to something near $650, and then a retest of the recent lows. I would not be surprised if we saw the retest in August, the usual time for seasonal lwos in Gold.
  24. More Copperfield Illusions Was he running the markets last week?
  25. I see it moving to 6-7 p, and maybe higher
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