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drbubb

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  1. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The divergence between Gold and gold shares... underscored the vulnerability of teh recent Gold rally EWI's comment: August Gold] pushed to an intraday high of $669 today, slightly past the top end of the $658.50-$665.60 resistance area in what is likely a “flight-to-quality” bid based on the current geo-political tensions. It is uncertain if prices are at their final countertrend rally peak right now, but there are some subtle signs of an impending reversal in bullion prices. One is the significant divergence that has developed between the XAU/Gold bullion ratio and gold bullion prices, as seen in the above chart. Oftentimes, diverging behavior in this ratio will precede gold declines, which is what occurred in February-March 2006 (first divergence at left on chart) and April-May 2006, prior to gold’s May 12 peak ($739.20). The current divergence started on June 29 and is becoming acute. Another subtle clue that the rally is approaching an end is the inter-market divergence between gold and silver, the latter being the higher-beta metal. This non-confirmation is akin to the higher-beta NASDAQ failing to confirm a rally leg in the blue-chip Dow or S&P. It doesn’t guarantee a trend change, but when traders refuse to accept risk (by failing to push the riskier asset relative to the more “conservative”), it suggests more often than not that a reversal is nigh. Right now, filling the open chart gap at $616 (June 30) would be a strong indicating that wave 2 or B up was complete ...MORE on the "free week"
  2. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Tom Obrien had targetted $676-677 as a peaking area. Seems that it has worked like a dream. Gold is tumbling MORE than the shares now, but both are under pressure
  3. "electric car (generated from coal fired power station) $60" Hmm./.. Put in the cost of making that electricity generation from "clean coal", and then what??
  4. How far can you drive on a bushel of corn? Crunching the numbers on alternative fuels. Ethanol/E85 Ethanol is ethyl alcohol, often referred to as grain alcohol; E85 is a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline. Most ethanol is made from grain, just as moonshine is, though there is also research into making ethanol in commercial quantities from cellulosic plants--a complex process that uses plant matter such as switch grass as a base feedstock. A gallon of E85 has an energy content of about 80,000 BTU, compared to gasoline's 124,800 BTU. So about 1.56 gal. of E85 takes you as far as 1 gal. of gas. BY MIKE ALLEN ... Popular Mechanics Ethanol, king of the challengers to petroleum, is already found blended with gasoline at pumps across the country, and production is continuing to ramp up. Ethanol is probably the main fuel President Bush had in mind both in February, when he announced the Advanced Energy Initiative, and last summer, when he signed new energy rules into law. That legislation established a renewable-fuels standard that will require the use of 7.5 billion gal. of ethanol and biodiesel annually by 2012--a nearly 90 percent increase over today's usage--and extended tax benefits that favor both fuels. In the lab, many gasoline alternatives look good. Out on the road, automotive engineers have a lot of work to do, and energy companies have new infrastructure to build, before very many people can drive off into a petroleum-free future. And, there's the issue of money. Too often, discussions of alternative energy take place in an alternative universe where prices do not matter. For this special report, PM crunched the numbers on the actual costs and performance of each major alternative fuel. Before we can debate national energy policy--or even decide which petroleum substitutes might make sense for our personal vehicles--we need to know how these things stack up in the real world. The Great Alt-Fuel Debate: It takes five barrels of crude oil to produce enough gasoline (nearly 97 gal.) to power a Honda Civic from New York to California. So how do the alternative fuels that may gradually reduce America's dependence on foreign oil stack up against the mileage and convenience of the filling-station stalwart? Download our comparison chart and find out. ...MORE: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/2690341.html
  5. drbubb

    The Oil and Energy Price Thread

    Possibly, YES. See the thread about the coming BUY on Alt-E stocks in the Main Forum
  6. M, I am interested in your reaction to this... The World will be a better place If and When the USA discovers a new mission... As a Country to be the Leader of Innovation in Alternative Energy. To get there, we may need to see: + $200 Oil, + More failures in US political leadership, + A clear peak in Oil resources vs. Production, + A more widespread realisation that the current mission as "the world's policeman and consumer of last resort" is thankless, and will eventually bankrupt the USA
  7. drbubb

    The Oil and Energy Price Thread

    As I have said before... The World will be a better place If and When the USA discovers a new mission... As a Country to be the Leader of Innovation in Alternative Energy. To get there, we may need to see: + $200 Oil, + More failures in US political leadership, + A clear peak in Oil resources vs. Production, + A more widespread realisation that the current mission as "the world's policeman and consumer of last resort" is thankless, and will eventually bankrupt the USA
  8. Mammad, Why not come up with a commercial invention, make some good money on it, and then try to raise money for the grander schemes? Once you ahve establish credibility as a money-maker, it will be far easier to get people to look at your more "advanced" ideas. How about Alternative Energy? Have any ideas that will work in that sector? Do take this the wrong way, I am really trying to be constructive. I have seen this approach work for people like Sir Clive Sinclair. For that matter, you might even try approaching him, to see if he can help you find backers. You are not a Mensa member by any chance, are you? That might give you some easy access to Sir Clive. Also, as a long-shot, you could approach the Gates Foundation. There are some links in the Off Topic forum
  9. drbubb

    The Oil and Energy Price Thread

    "how can you function in a world with $100+ barrel oil.?" I think it is going to $200. But not by going straight up, and not immediately. The BIG RISE in the dollar price, may well come within a few months if-and-when the Dollar goes into freefall. So that chart on the Dollar thread, showing a seasonal tendency for the dollar br weak after August is very interesting SOME CHARTS for the Header maybe: Dec.2006 WTI, last Two Years ... update : Shows BREAKOUT above $76 Closer-up: Crude Oil etf (USO) ... update : 10.day
  10. M., I would say you need a business partner who can help you realise the economic potential of your investments, or a billionaire backer, who will invest on faith. Until you find one of these, I reckon you will be stuck in an academic environment. The Google guys were lucky. They came around with their idea, when big fortunbes had been made on internet businesses, and so they had an easy time finding Venture Capitalists willing to back their idea. No one has made any money on time travel, apart from some science fiction writers
  11. The drought in the US corn and wheat growing states will not help either
  12. NO CLEAR prospective RETURN, means no investment in our capitalist system, I am afraid. But you may be able to find a University willing to back research, if you are good at writing grant proposals
  13. CHASING A HOT MARKET ====== Marathon Oil, Andersons Plan to Build Ethanol Plants (Update3) July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Marathon Oil Corp. announced the first ethanol investment by a major U.S. oil company in 26 years, saying it plans to build plants with grains marketer Andersons Inc. to meet rising demand for the fuel additive. The joint venture's first ethanol plant, to be run by Andersons, would have annual production capacity of 110 million gallons, the companies said today in a statement. Ethanol plants of that size can cost as much as $195 million to build, said Linda Casey, a spokeswoman for Houston-based Marathon. Demand for ethanol, distilled mostly from corn in the U.S., is rising as refiners replace methyl tertiary butyl ether, the additive known as MTBE. U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in May said oil producers should invest more in renewable fuels such as ethanol, use of which will almost double by 2012 under legislation signed into law by President George W. Bush. ``We're going to see all the big refiners'' getting into ethanol production, said Gene Gillespie, an analyst at Howard Weil Inc. in New Orleans who rates Marathon shares at ``buy'' and doesn't own any. ``From both an opportunistic and a defensive point of view, it's almost a requirement.'' Marathon and Maumee, Ohio-based Andersons haven't decided on a site or target completion date for their first plant, the companies said. Formation of their 50-50 joint venture is pending approvals by the boards of both companies. Shares of Marathon rose 10 cents to $85.83 at 12:47 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Andersons jumped $4.25, or 10 percent, to $44.85 on the Nasdaq Stock Market. First Since 1980 Casey declined to comment on how many plants the venture may build. Marathon sees the venture as a means of ``ensuring reliability of supply,'' she said. The last ethanol investment by a U.S. oil company was the former Texaco Inc.'s partnership in 1980 with CPC International. Texaco, now part of Chevron Corp., abandoned the project in 1995, when it sold the business to Williams Cos. of Tulsa, Oklahoma. San Ramon, California-based Chevron is considering investing in ethanol plants, Chief Technology Officer Donald Paul said in May. Like Marathon, Chevron cited the need to ensure its own supplies of the additive, which reduces tailpipe emissions and improves engine performance. U.S. Senators Tom Harkin and Evan Bayh last year urged the Energy Department to investigate why refiners weren't using more ethanol. The Consumers Federation of America accused oil companies of boycotting ethanol to keep fuel prices high. Largest in the Midwest The largest ethanol-producing region in the U.S. is the Midwest, where Marathon is the biggest refiner. Marathon has been blending ethanol into gasoline for more than 15 years, Gary Heminger, president of the company's refining and marketing arm, said in today's statement. Marathon can refine 974,000 barrels of crude oil a day at its plants in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Minnesota, Texas and Louisiana. The company blended 550 million gallons of ethanol into gasoline last year and estimates it will need about 1 billion gallons a year as demand rises, Casey said. Andersons will procure corn for the joint venture's plants and will provide risk management and marketing, the companies said. U.S. ethanol makers Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc., VeraSun Energy Corp. and Hawkeye Holdings Inc. have sold or plan to sell shares this year at least partly to pay for expanding production. Hawkeye, the third-largest U.S. ethanol producer, is controlled by Boston buyout firm Thomas H. Lee Partners LP. Plant Conversion Buyout firms Riverstone Holdings LLC and Carlyle Group plan to join with Canada's Blackstone Energy Inc. in converting a Collingwood, Ontario, starch plant to ethanol production. The Carlyle/Riverstone Renewable Energy Infrastructure Fund I will buy a 77 percent stake in Collingwood Ethanol GP, which plans to start producing ethanol in mid-2007, Riverstone said today in a statement. The plant will have annual production capacity of 15 million gallons. Archer Daniels Midland Co., the largest U.S. ethanol producer, has seven plants with combined annual capacity of 1.07 billion gallons. @: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
  14. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The chart for GLD, gold etd... Also suggests that Gold may have reached the top of its trading range. A fall from here would not be surprising. I have puts on XAU, NEM, GG.
  15. the thread will create pages as needed - go ahead
  16. "How much would it cost? How would an investor make a profit?" THESE are important questions. If there is no clear return for "investors", you are not seeking investment, you are seeking charity
  17. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The upthrust seems to waning. Let's see if if will get back on track in US trading. As some here know, I have shorted US stocks in a big way on Monday- by purchasing stock index puts
  18. "Let me not explain more, but in the some next days my new reply to this forum would be good news about getting everything OK" THIS is very cryptic to me
  19. My view is that Time Travel is impossible, but traveling forward in time at different speeds is possible
  20. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Gold up to $319 ($619?) ... actually: $620.50 now I tend to disregard prices outside US hours, since any price action tends to get retraced during NY hours. But over the last 12 months, that has begun to change, with traders in theFar East and the Gulf taking a leading role in moving prices.
  21. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    i expect the august lows to be at least as low as the recent lows. and whatever happened alon the way,it is good to walk away from my first decent sized gold trade with a profit. but a $10k profit or loss is neither here or there in the context of my portfolio
  22. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    I sold over $250K of gold and silver today at modest profit ($10K?) on the theory that I will be able to buy it back cheaper in August. I originally bought the Gold at just over $600/oz., and felt a bit shellshocked on that $40 drop, so quick rally of the past few days brought meback into profit, after a few worried days. It may be that many others are selling here on "relief", and it will go much higher. If it does, I will benefit thru the Junior Miners and Explorers that i hold. But i definitely want to have some cash for possible August "bargain-hunting"
  23. drbubb

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    SElling? Yes. And reasonably aggressively today during NY trading hours In my shortterm "aggressive" trading account, I have cleared out ALL the long positions. Now I have: record levels of cash, and some Puts on XAU, NEM which were bought today. I am still long Junior miners and explorers, but will be looking to clear some of those today, and early next week. I think $630-640 is possible on this rally, but the Good feelings may end by early next week, IF YOU LOOK at this Chart... It suggests that Gold may end here ($615) or rally to $640. I am clearing out plenty of my positions, but stay long many Juniors in case we get the rally to $640 or higher.
  24. Ok. What about the old paradox... You go back into time, and meet your own parents, and prevent them from having children. What then happens to this time traveller? Does he disappear, as soon as his involvement changes his own future? If this risk is real, is then the Time Traveller acting in an immoral way, since he may disrupt his own future and that of others
  25. drbubb

    Thor Mining

    This one (Thor) is not an overnight deal. It will take some time for the story to play out
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