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drbubb

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  1. Equinox Gold / EQX ... update: $5.95 / GDX: $32.51 = Ratio; 18.3% EQX $5.95 / GDX: $32.51 = Ratio; 18.3%
  2. RELIEF RALLY? Inflation, & Higher Rates have been hitting stock prices ... YTD: Uso: Commodity price inflation is Hanging on so far. But we have come to an important pitch point... Chart update. This week's stock rally was Predictable, In fact I did predict it... a few days ago on a Viber chat, wave4 implies rally. Old 5yr chart above. / UPDATE: Friday's closes were: SPY: 415.26, +2.45%, IWM: 187.64, +2.69%. TNA: 45.53, +8.10% May 13th, I posted the chart above, with the comment: SPY: Last, 5.12: $392.53. DayL: $385 "Blast away, Guys! Please tell me why this count is wrong. I actually welcome a debate on this" ( Ultimate Low for SPY was just a little lower at $380- ish, on May 20th. IWM low was May12th. ) We still do not know if the wave count will prove itself. The big drop might have started already, and wave 5 might be in place. Looks like it can test likely resistance at $425-430. Only if it easily blasts thru there might we expect to revisit or beat the old highs/ A viber person seeing the SPY chart commented; " ... isn’t any reason for the bullish case." To answer, look at the chart for TYX - interest rates, as updated 5.31.2022, Last: 30.57 +0.85 = 3.057% DISAGREEING there is NO Reason for a Bull case, I noted that: TYX, 30 year rates are down from 3.28% > 2.97%. But USO/Oil ETF continues higher with fresh highs yesterday at $85.52 (=wti crude: $115+.) I don't see how Rates can keep coming down, and the stock rally gather momentum unless we see lower oil. The Bulls will want that, and maybe we will hear some good news from Ukraine on peace talks... which seem overdue. USO / Oil etc... since Dec'21: XLE-etc: USO-only: yrH: 88.32/ XLE-only: yrH: 90.46 = wti:$120 -- UPDATED! 5.31.22 USO/ Oil etf: 85.46,+0.87, +1.03% = WTI $115 10 yr, chart: IWM: 187.64, +2.69%. TNA: 45.53, +8.10%, IWM Low of 2022 was 168.90 (TNA:xx), on May12th: XSU : NOTE: that the IWM low came the day of my "prediction", ie a week earlier than SPY
  3. Wow. Over 6 Million Views ... Just eating noodles on line BEST & WORST INSTANT NOODLES! Trying EVERY Instant Noodle Quest (Part 1) Rex Celsior 1 year ago He has a ramen corner... In his bedroom... HE HAS A RAMEN CORNER...
  4. jk / just kitchens = ghost kitchens JK / v All . 10d/ last: C$1.64 +0.05 10d/ last: C$1.73 +0.13 "Just Kitchen Holdings Corp. has opened its 14th satellite spoke kitchen today, which is located in the Wenshen district of Taipei. The 14th spoke unlocks access to over 275,000 new customers in a dense urban area and further enhances Just Kitchen's capacity utilization of its infrastructure. Further, a second hub kitchen has recently commenced operations in Tainan City and consists of 15,000 square feet of commercial kitchen space. The second hub was built by Chi Mei Frozen Foods Co., which is a large Taiwanese food manufacturer and partner of the company. It is located within Chi Mei's processing plant and has the capacity to support Just Kitchen's next 20 to 25 spoke kitchens." About Just Kitchen Holdings Corp. Just Kitchen is primarily an operator of ghost kitchens specializing in the development and marketing of proprietary and franchised delivery-only food brands for customers across Taiwan. Just Kitchen uniquely utilizes a hub-and-spoke operating model, which features advanced food preparation taking place at larger hub kitchens and final meal preparation taking place at smaller spoke kitchens located in areas with higher population densities. The company combines this operating model with on-line and mobile application-based food ordering fulfilled by third party delivery companies, to minimize capital investments and operating expenses and reach more customers in underserved markets. The company's other business, JustMarket, is an e-commerce grocery delivery platform that allows customers to purchase groceries for delivery or add select grocery items to meals ordered through Just Kitchen. > source: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!JK-3063701/C/JK > website: www.investors.justkitchen.com
  5. JK at $0,54 / source. / 1,88= bv : $0,287 Total Shares Outstanding (MRQ) 75.144M Number of Employees — Number of Shareholders — Price to Earnings Ratio (TTM) — Price to Revenue Ratio (TTM) 2.8613 Price to Book (FY) 1.8799 Price to Sales (FY) 3.4024
  6. JK / Just Kitchens... All: Last: $0.54 Just Kitchen rolls out Mr. Chili menu in Taiwan 2022-05-12 09:27 ET - News Release Mr. Jason Chen reports JUSTKITCHEN LAUNCHES EXCLUSIVE NEW MR. CHILI MENU IN TAIWAN WITH MR. HOT INSTANT NOODLE BRAND AND CELEBRITY SINGER HSIAO CHING-TENG Just Kitchen Holdings Corp. has launched Mr. Chili, which is an exclusive delivery-only spicy noodle menu created in association with the Mr. Hot instant noodle brand in Taiwan. To date, Just Kitchen is the first and only ghost kitchen affiliate of Mr. Hot and its celebrity endorser, Jam Hsiao Ching-Teng -- the famous Taiwanese singer and actor. Additionally, the company has launched a new curry and don brand, Kitsutaya Curry Donburi, to appeal to families with children as the menu adds a sweet taste to more traditional curry and don meals at an affordable price point. Just Kitchen has created and recently launched Mr. Chili food items based on the ingredients and recipes of Mr. Hot products, to provide quality meals to convenience-seeking consumers who are also fans of Mr. Ching-Teng.... Management commentary "We are excited to launch Mr. Chili in collaboration with Mr. Hot and the one and only Jam Hsiao Ching-Teng. This is an amazing opportunity for Just Kitchen to launch our proprietary celebrity endorsed brand and making the instant connection to his fans worldwide," said Jason Chen, co-founder and chief executive officer of Just Kitchen. "Adding Kitsutaya as a Japanese brand from Just Kitchen and having it available for delivery to consumers throughout Taiwan is also very important to the company. Kitsutaya was originated by our data science team in identifying a cuisine gap that fulfils the family friendly and accessible categories," added Mr. Chen. About Just Kitchen Holdings Corp. Just Kitchen is primarily a technology-focused-and-enabled operator of ghost kitchens specializing in the development and marketing of proprietary and franchised delivery-only food brands for customers. The company currently operates in Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, with plans to expand operations to other Asian countries. Just Kitchen uniquely utilizes a hub-and-spoke operating model, which features advanced food preparation taking place at larger hub kitchens and final meal preparation taking place at smaller spoke kitchens located in areas with higher population densities. The company combines this operating model with on-line and mobile application-based food ordering fulfilled by third party delivery companies, to minimize capital investments and operating expenses and reach more customers in underserved markets. The company's other business, JustMarket, is an e-commerce grocery delivery platform that allows customers to purchase groceries for delivery or add select grocery items to meals ordered through Just Kitchen.
  7. PSEI ... ALLdata : 10yr: 5yr 1yr / Last: 6,620. PE MoEnd: PSEI: PEratio : Earns. : GNI$: $Php =GNI: G/P Ye’95 : 2,594 : 18.860 : P137.5 : ===========: 5.30%: Ye’00 : 1,495 : 14.160 : P105.6 : -23.2/ -4%pa : 7.06%: Ye’05 : 2,096 : 15.050 : P139.3 : +31.9/ 5.55% : 6.64%: Ye’06 : 2,983 : 14.570 : P204.7 : +46.9% p.a. : 6.86%: -7.0% E: Ye’07 : 3,622 : 15.490 : P233.8 : +14.2% p.a. : 6.46%: -6.70%:= (0.24%): Sell Ye’08 : 1,873 : 9.420 : P198.8 : -15.0% p.a. : 10.62% -7.25%:= 3.37% : BUY !! Ye’09 : 3,053 : 12.589 : P242.5 : +22.0% p.a. : 7.94%: -7.88%:= 0.06% : Ye’10 : 4,201 : 14.031 : P299.4 : +23.5% p.a. : 7.13%: -5.89%:= 1.24%. : Ye’11 : 4,372 : 15.636 : P279,6 : - 6.61% p.a. : 6.40%: -5.08%:= 1.32% : Ye’12 : 5,813 : 17.967 : P323.5 : +15.70% p.a. : 5.57%: -4.15%:= 1.42% : Ye’13 : 5,890 : 17.516 : P336.3 : + 3.96% p.a. : 5.71%: -3.60%:= 2.11%. : BUY ! Ye’14 : 7,231 : 19.980 : P361.9 : + 7.61% p.a. : 5.01%: -3.86%:= 1.15% : Ye’15 : 6,952 : 19.552 : P355.6 : - 1.74% p.a. : 5.11%: -3.86%:= 1.25%. : Ye’16 : 6,841 : 17.371 : P393.8 : +10.7% p.a. : 5.76%: -4.10%:= 1.66% : Near Buy? Ye’17 : 8,558 : 21.228 : P403.1 : + 2.36% p.a. : 4.71%: -4.63%:= (0.08%): Sell Ye’18 : 7,486 : 17.887 : P418.5 : + 3.82% p.a : 5.59%: -5.70%:= (0.11%): Ye’19 : 7,815 : 16.062 : P486.6 : +16.3% p.a. : 6.23%:. ?? Ye’20 : 7,140 : 00.000 : P000.0 : + 0.00% p.a : Ye’21 : 7,355 : 00.000 : P000.0 : + 0.00% p.a : Aver.: 0,000 : 00000 : ======
  8. PSEI Valuation, PE Ratios / & the "2020 Starter Portfolio" "The 2020 Starter Portfolio" combined chart PSEI-etc ... fr. 2015: 2017: 2018 / 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / 7,370 + GLO:1,889 / BPI-etc: 10d : 6mo: 5yr / Components - he mentioned these specific stocks to me, but this is not really "his" portfolio. I will call it this the "2020 Starter Portfolio": Sym. : Company-: 02/21: -High (xx’20): vs.High shsOS: MktCap: Pr/Bk: BkVal: PER : Yield : Div. : PSEI : PSEI Index: 7,370 : 9059: (01’18) : -18.7% : 000.M: P00.0B : ===== ==== : 15.0: 1.94% : p143. GLO. : Globe Tel. : 1,889 : 2702: (06’15) : -30.3% :133.M: P252.B : 317.% 0,596 : 11.5: 5.04%: p95.2 MBT : MetroBank 60.85 : 90.53 (01’18) : -32.8% : 4.50B: P274.B : 88.4% 68.83 : 10.2: 1.64%: p99.8 TEL. : PLDT Inc. : 1,025 : 3,422 (09’14) : -70.0% : 216.M: P221.B : 202.% 0,508 : 11.9: 7.02%: p72.0 SHLph P.Shell Pet: 28.95 : 79.35 (02’17) : -63.5% : 1.61B: P46.7B : 121.% 23.90 : 20.7: 10.4%: p3.00 Four Stocks ============================= : Aver. : P794.B : 182.% ==== : 13.6 : 6.03% ===== ====== Fritz Ocampo, Chief Investment Officer, Bdo Unibank Inc Last night, I heard a very interesting Talk by Fritz Ocampo. (Chief Investment Officer, BDO) Fritz is bullish on the PH economy, and on PH stocks for this year and beyond. He expects lower rates and more spending to push up growth in 2020, & bring PHP lower. In his view, Right now is the time for bargain hunting in Stock Market because of... two discounts: The "Duterte discount", and some global weakness from CoVid-19. Du-30’s term will not last much longer, and people with start to look past that soon. He also thinks the Virus with depress China’s growth rate, not eliminate growth completely. He expects China's growth rate for 2020 to be cut by roughly half, growing again in 2nd Half. PH will stand out as the fastest growing economy in the fastest growing part of the World. At some point, probably soon, international investors will rediscover PH, and the capital outflows from global investors will reverse to inflows. PE ratios will rise, and probably earnings too. Meantime the Historical support level for PE's just below 15:1 may hold. If these views are accurate, then the 7,000-7,200 level may be strong support for PSEI. CHART - PSEI is now near 15X EPS> "An area very likely to generate a bounce... Or a strong rally." Let’s see which. The PH market fell despite growth, because foreign money moved out. That may reverse soon. THIS PSEI Chart / All Data - highlights how important is the 7000-7200 Support level UPDATES DATABANK - PSEI - PE RATIO The index has a base value of 1022.045 as of February 28, 1990. PSEI ... ALLdata : 10yr: 5yr 1yr / Last: 6,620. PE MoEnd: PSEI: PEratio : Earns. : GNI$: $Php =GNI: G/P Ye’95 : 2,594 : 18.860 : P137.5 : ===========: 5.30%: Ye’00 : 1,495 : 14.160 : P105.6 : -23.2/ -4%pa : 7.06%: Ye’05 : 2,096 : 15.050 : P139.3 : +31.9/ 5.55% : 6.64%: Ye’06 : 2,983 : 14.570 : P204.7 : +46.9% p.a. : 6.86%: -7.0% E: Ye’07 : 3,622 : 15.490 : P233.8 : +14.2% p.a. : 6.46%: -6.70%:= (0.24%): Sell Ye’08 : 1,873 : 9.420 : P198.8 : -15.0% p.a. : 10.62% -7.25%:= 3.37% : BUY !! Ye’09 : 3,053 : 12.589 : P242.5 : +22.0% p.a. : 7.94%: -7.88%:= 0.06% : Ye’10 : 4,201 : 14.031 : P299.4 : +23.5% p.a. : 7.13%: -5.89%:= 1.24%. : Ye’11 : 4,372 : 15.636 : P279,6 : - 6.61% p.a. : 6.40%: -5.08%:= 1.32% : Ye’12 : 5,813 : 17.967 : P323.5 : +15.70% p.a. : 5.57%: -4.15%:= 1.42% : Ye’13 : 5,890 : 17.516 : P336.3 : + 3.96% p.a. : 5.71%: -3.60%:= 2.11%. : BUY ! Ye’14 : 7,231 : 19.980 : P361.9 : + 7.61% p.a. : 5.01%: -3.86%:= 1.15% : Ye’15 : 6,952 : 19.552 : P355.6 : - 1.74% p.a. : 5.11%: -3.86%:= 1.25%. : Ye’16 : 6,841 : 17.371 : P393.8 : +10.7% p.a. : 5.76%: -4.10%:= 1.66% : Near Buy? Ye’17 : 8,558 : 21.228 : P403.1 : + 2.36% p.a. : 4.71%: -4.63%:= (0.08%): Sell Ye’18 : 7,486 : 17.887 : P418.5 : + 3.82% p.a : 5.59%: -5.70%:= (0.11%): Ye’19 : 7,815 : 16.062 : P486.6 : +16.3% p.a. : 6.23%:. ?? Ye’20 : 7,140 : 00.000 : P000.0 : + 0.00% p.a : Ye’21 : 7,355 : 00.000 : P000.0 : + 0.00% p.a : Aver.: 0,000 : 00000 : ======
  9. PSEI ... ALLdata : 10yr: 5yr 1yr / Last: 6,620. PE ===== usdphp Wow! Buy : cheap: norm.: high : Sell! : GNIest X52.0 : X 25 : X 30. : X 35. : X 40. : X 45 : X 50. : $3,400: 176.8k: 4,420: 5,304: 6,174: 7,072: 7,956: 8,840: $3,500: 182.0k: 4,550: 5,460: 6,370: 7,280: 8,190: 9,100: $3,600: 187.2k: 4,680: 5,616: 6,552: 7,488: 8,424: 9,360: $3,700: 192.4k: 4,810: 5,772: 6,732: 7,697: 8,658: 9,620: $3,800: 197.6k: 4,940: 5,928: 6,916: 7,904: 8,892: 9,880: $3,900: 202.8k: 5,070: 6,084: 7,098: 8,104: 9,126: 10.14k $4,000: 208.0k: 5,200: 6,240: 7,280: 8,320: 9,360: 10.40k MoEnd: PSEI: PEratio : Earns. : GNI$ x $Php =GNIphp G/P/1k Ye’90 : 0,651 : ====== : P === : $ 720.: 28.00: P20.16k: 32.29 Ye’95 : 2,594 : 18.860 : P137.5 : $1,020: 26.21: P26.73k: 97.04 Ye’00 : 1,495 : 14.160 : P105.6 : $1,150: 49.90: P57.39k: 26.04 Ye’05 : 2,096 : 15.050 : P139.3 : $1,380: 53.61: P73.98k: 28.33 Ye’06 : 2,983 : 14.570 : P204.7 : $1,490: 49.21: P73.32k: 40.68 Ye’07 : 3,622 : 15.490 : P233.8 : $1,720: 41.32: P71.07k: 50.96 Ye’08 : 1,873 : 9.420 : P198.8 : $2,000: 47.51: P95.02k: 19.71 Ye’09 : 3,053 : 12.589 : P242.5 : $2,170: 46.23: P100.3k: 30.44 Ye’10 : 4,201 : 14.031 : P299.4 : $2,370: 43.80: P103.8k: 40.47 Ye’11 : 4,372 : 15.636 : P279,6 : $2,520: 43.85: P110.5k: 39.57 Ye’12 : 5,813 : 17.967 : P323.5 : $2,860: 41.06: P117.4k: 49.51 Ye’13 : 5,890 : 17.516 : P336.3 : $3,160: 44.38: P140.2k: 42.01 Ye’14 : 7,231 : 19.980 : P361.9 : $3,330: 44.73: P148.9k: 48.56 Ye’15 : 6,952 : 19.552 : P355.6 : $3,380: 46.86: P158.4k: 43.89 Ye’16 : 6,841 : 17.371 : P393.8 : $3,450: 49.61: P171.2k: 37.68 Ye’17 : 8,558 : 21.228 : P403.1 : $3,530: 49.96: P176.4k: 48.51 Ye’18 : 7,486 : 17.887 : P418.5 : $3,710: 52.50: P194.8k: 38.43 Ye’19 : 7,815 : 16.062 : P486.6 : $3,850: 50.71: P195.2k: 40.04 Ye’20 : 7,140 : 00.000 : P400.? : $3,430: 48.01: P164.7k: 43.35 Ye’21 : 7,355 : 22.079 : P333.1 : $3, ???: 51.00: Aver.: 0,000 : 00000 : ====== > GNI / Gross National Income / person, see: Macrotrends > PE Ratios:
  10. Greater Manila : Richest City in Asia a Century ago - and Again someday? : source Manila was once the richest city in Asia - perhaps 100 years ago. Can it happen again? / Makati City is now #1, the Richest City in PH, & I consider it part of Greater Manila on this thread / (in doing research for this thread, I came across some bizarre videos, like this one): The Philippine History Revisited The Wealthiest Nation on earth Published on 11 May 2016
  11. GNI DATA - from Official sources, see: Macrotrends Year GNI,USD %Growth 2020 $3,430 -10.91% 2019 $3,850 3.77% 2018 $3,710 5.10% 2017 $3,530 2.32% 2016 $3,450 2.07% 2015 $3,380 1.50% 2014 $3,330 5.38% 2013 $3,160 10.49% 2012 $2,860 13.49% 2011 $2,520 6.33% 2010 $2,370 9.22% 2009 $2,170 8.50% 2008 $2,000 16.28% 2007 $1,720 15.44% 2006 $1,490 7.97% 2005 $1,380 6.98% 2004 $1,290 10.26% 2003 $1,170 3.54% 2002 $1,130 -2.59% 2001 $1,160 0.87% 2000 $1,150 -2.54%
  12. From oldest recorded Filipino poem Ancient Prophecy Philippines: MARCOS Prophesied! The Life of Lam-Ang. Solomon's Gold Series 15B 30,975 views May 22, 2022
  13. Ancient Prophecy Philippines: MARCOS Prophesied! The Life of Lam-Ang. Solomon's Gold Series 15B 30,975 views May 22, 2022
  14. Are the Philippine Islands = The mountains of Lemuria ? Lemuria & the Philippines connection - Ancient Mysteries ... Apr 3, 2005 - 10 posts - ‎5 authors Lemuria & the Philippines connection - posted in Ancient Mysteries & Alternative History: The diplomat who remembers his past lives, Carlos... Carlos asked me if I knew that the Philippines was part of Lemuria. I said yes, and told him I even saw a map of Lemuria, and the Philippines was in it. And this could explain why in the Philippines there are so many healers, psychics, clairvoyants, mediums and spirits. Lemuria was known for two things, high telepathic powers and high spirituality, which present-day Filipinos are known for. "Don't you find your belief in reincarnation to be in conflict with your profession and your Catholic religion?" I asked Carlos. "Not at all," he replied instantly. "I've always been very discreet about my personal beliefs. And as far as religion is concerned, you yourself pointed out in a recent newspaper column that the Catholic Church has not formally condemned belief in reincarnation." : ... The Theory of Lemurian Origin The Philippines and other countries of Southeast Asia were once part of a bigger land mass called Lemuria or Mu. Because of earthquakes and geological activities, most of the land mass sank and only parts remained including the Philippine archipelago. == > http://www.slideshare.net/nonelee/civics-5-class
  15. AyalaLand Update ALI ... update: All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: P28.10 ALI / AyalaLand : 28.10 -0.40, -1.4% - No signs of a cyclical recovery yet in the stock chart. But BPItrade still puts out a BUY. Worryingly, the report talks about Residential project bookings falling 5%, and Cancellations at ALP. Plus some bullish points Compare w/ Long term cycle in ALI-CHI ... All Data: w/MEG : ALI: 28.10, CHI: 6.12, Ratio at: r-4.59 w/MEG : ALI: 28.10, CHI: 6.12, MEG: 2.78 // All time Lows: xx, xx, xx ALI Book Value is just P16.50. And ALI trades at 170% of that. Still BPI calls Sum-of-Parts NAV circa.P 58, and calls it near 50% NAV. Point is: there is a lot of room for getting some assumptions wrong. BULL CASE: wide discount to NAV of c.51% following a sharp 22% YTD correction. This provides acompelling entry point to a prime cyclical recovery play, in our view. We believe that ALI’s deep pipelineof mixed-use developments and strategic landbank should enable the company to capture post-pandemic recovery trends. In particular, we expect: 1) revenue recovery in the residential segment inthe coming quarters as construction activities continue to normalize, 2) rebounding mall revenues asfoot traffic accelerates and rental concessions ease, 3) a resilient office segment underpinned by stableBPO and HQ operations, and 4) a sharp recovery in hotels and resorts as domestic revenge travelpicks up and relaxed flight restriction eventually attract foreign tourists. Moreover, we do not expectto see large cancellations recurring in the following quarters as the one-off cancellation in 1Q22 wasnot due to a change in the financial capacity of customers but arose from an adjustment in the unit’sfeatures. We believe that these units can be sold at higher selling prices in the coming quarters. Weforecast ALI to post EPS growth of 39.1%/51.5% in FY22/23F and rising ROE of 7.1%/10.2% ( per BPI Trade report, May 2022 )
  16. AyalaLand : Long Cycles and Buying windows Philippines PROPERTY CYCLE: (Original posted in 2016, and then updated from time-to-time) On another chat I posted this in JULY 2020: I said: "I think I know where we are (in the 18 YEAR LONG PROPERTY CYCLE), and here you go, a chart that is labeled with the TURN points. Do remember that a bellwether share like ALI might turn 6-12 months ahead of the physical market. And ALI peaked in mid-2019. The physical market peak should have been right around the beginning of 2020: ... Update ALI & CHI data Assuming a peak in the Beginning of 2020, The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year. (updated 2022) : As discussed at the May 1, 2022 Property Meet-up: Update ALI & CHI data  The end 2019 Peak was forecast before it happened! The next major low should be in 3 - 5 years, or the end of 2024 +/- 1 year.
  17. AyalaLand Update ALI ... update: 5yr: / Last: P28.10 ALI / AyalaLand : 28.10 -0.40, -1.4% - No signs of a cyclical recovery yet in the stock chart. But BPItrade still puts out a BUY. Worryingly, the report talks about Residential project bookings falling 5%, and Cancellations at ALP. Plus some bullish points ALI Book Value is just P16.50. And ALI trades at 170% of that. Still BPI calls Sum-of-Parts NAV circa.P 58, and calls it near 50% NAV. Point is: there is a lot of room for getting some assumptions wrong. BULL CASE: wide discount to NAV of c.51% following a sharp 22% YTD correction. This provides acompelling entry point to a prime cyclical recovery play, in our view. We believe that ALI’s deep pipelineof mixed-use developments and strategic landbank should enable the company to capture post-pandemic recovery trends. In particular, we expect: 1) revenue recovery in the residential segment inthe coming quarters as construction activities continue to normalize, 2) rebounding mall revenues asfoot traffic accelerates and rental concessions ease, 3) a resilient office segment underpinned by stableBPO and HQ operations, and 4) a sharp recovery in hotels and resorts as domestic revenge travelpicks up and relaxed flight restriction eventually attract foreign tourists. Moreover, we do not expectto see large cancellations recurring in the following quarters as the one-off cancellation in 1Q22 wasnot due to a change in the financial capacity of customers but arose from an adjustment in the unit’sfeatures. We believe that these units can be sold at higher selling prices in the coming quarters. Weforecast ALI to post EPS growth of 39.1%/51.5% in FY22/23F and rising ROE of 7.1%/10.2% ( per BPI Trade report, May 2022 )
  18. REAL PRICES: for PH Property & Stocks: Historical Timeline Looking Back... to 1950... and beyond? Imagine that! One Ounce of Gold was only PHP 70 ! (in the late 1950's) EXPECTATION that the data collected here will show: Gold in Pesos rose fast (as PHP lost value), but (some) LAND prices rose faster. (best rises: Lots near major CBD areas, where high paying jobs are clustered) : Peso dropped from 2.0 to the USD to over 50 PH Peso Gold prices are up >1,100x since the late 1950's ! YrEnd: PHP/$: Gold : PHgold: +5yrs% : Ov’all : 1945 : 2.000 : $34.71 : P69.42: ===== : 1950 : 2.000 : $34.72 : P69.44: +0.02%: 1955 : 2.000 : $35.03 : P70.06: +0.89%: Unch.: 1960 : 3.000 : $35.27 : P105.8: +51.0%: + 50% 1965 : 3.909 : $35.12 : P137.3: +29.8%: +100% 1970 : 6.435 : $37.44 : P240.9: +75.5%: +240% 1975 : 7.499 : $139.3 : P1045 : +338.%: 14.9 X 1980 : 7.594 : $594.9 : P4518 : +332.%: 64.5 X 1985 : 18.90 : $320.8 : P6063 : +34.2%: 86.6 X 1990 : 28.00 : $392.8 : 10.99k : +81.3%: 157 X 1995 : 26.21 : $387.0 : 10.14k : - 7.73%: 145 X 2000 : 49.90 : $272.7 : 13.61k : +34.1%: 194 X 2005 : 53.61 : $513.0 : 27.50k : +102.%: 393 X 2010 : 43.95 : 1405.5 : 61.77k : +125.%: 882 X 2015 : 47.23 : 1069.0 : 50.49k : - 18.3%: 721 X 2020 : 48.01 : 1891.1 : 90.79k : +79.8%: 721 X 2015-'21/ (see below):: PSEI is how many Gold Oz.? YrEnd: PHP/$: GLD : x ratio= Gold : PHgold : PerYr%: Ov’all : 2015 : 46.86: 101.46 x10.457 1061.0 : 49.72k: ===== : 6,952.: ==== : 0.140: 2016 : 49.61: 109.61 x10.500 1150.9 : 57.10k: +14.8%: 6,841.: - 1.60%: 0.150: 2017 : 49.96: 123.65 x10.534 1302.5 : 65.07k: +14.0%: 8,558.: +23.1%: 0.132: 2018 : 52.50: 121.25 x10.574 1282.1 : 67.31k: +3.44%: 7,466.: - 12.8%: 0.111: 2019 : 50.71: 142.90 x10.614 1516.8 : 76.92k: +14.3%: 7,815.: +4.67%: 0.102: 2020 : 48.01: 178.36 x10.641 1898.0 : 91.12k: +18.5%: 7,140.: - 8.62%: 0.078: 2021 : 51.00: 170.96 x10.703 1829.8 : 93.32k: +2.41%: 7,123.: - 0.24%: 0.076: ==== 5/’22 : 52.33: 174.13 x10.718 1866.4 : 97.67k: +4.66%: 6,577.: - 13.2%: 0.067: = 6.73% of an Gold Oz req'd to buy PSEI ===== Sources: PesoCross.XL > www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/excel/pesocross.xls Gold London pm, Kitco : https://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx TS's comment: "the peso fall from 2:1 to USD to weakest 56:1 was around a 98.3% collapse in value, if my math is accurate. So a peso now is the equivalent of 2 centavos of the 1950s. It may actually be much worse than that because one can recall the old folks saying a one-centavo coin could actually buy a number of things then. I don't think a peso can. So maybe my math is wrong or there is a quantitative aspect to this matter."
  19. INFLATION Drivers > Long term Rates TYX / 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield ... 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: YTD-w/Crb: 10d / 29.96 = 3.00%; 29.96/23.42= +27.9% 12 mo.chg: USO: 81.65/42.48= +92.2%., DBA: 22.24/18.38= +21.0%, DXY: 102.5/89.8= +14.1%, CRB: 28.04/15.59= +79.9% TYX / 30yr T-Bond Yield: YTD-w/Crb: 10d / 29.96 = 3.00%; 29.96/23.42= +27.9% UGL / 2x Gold etf: YTD-w/CRB: w/Gdxj . 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / 59.33/64.86= -8.53% up in 12 mos.
  20. "MARCH 2020 was a BOOKMARK EVENT ! An End to the Debt trend." And an End of the Bear Market in Oil and Interest Rates, and Bull Market in Bonds There are two ways to build wealth in these crazy times: Inflation trade (commodities), and FEAR trade (USD) Francis Hunt: The Dollar System is in its Death Throes Here's the Long term chart on TLT/ Bonds: All Data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yrD: 1yr: 10d / "The Breaking Event will be Dollar Strength, not Dollar weakness" Here's the Long term chart on DXY/ US Dollars: All Data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yrD: 1yr: 10d /
  21. "Gold outperforms CRB inflation in the Long term" - this chart from 2006 demonstrates that... CRB -vs. GLD/Gold, DBA, and XLE ... from 2006: 2010: 2015: 2020 / 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: xx /xx (down from xx) from 2015: 2019: 2020: Mar.2020: 10d / CRB: 28.10 (xx) , XLE: 81.77, DBA: 22.24, GLD: 172.03 ($1830) From Mar.2020: 10d /. CRB Index (and Oil?) have been the top performers since the start of the Covid shock. ==== Feb’20: Jul’20: 5.20.22: 2/20>5/22 CRB.it $13.72 : $11.53 : $28.10 : +104.8% $CRB: 160.0e : 140.0e : 312.72 : +95% E XLE : $45.27 : $36.03: $81.77 : + 80.6% DBA : $15.25 : $14.18: $22.24 : + 45.8% GLD : 148.38 : 185.43: 172.03 : + 15.9% Gold: $1,586.: $1,976: $1,847 : + 16.5% Au/G: r10.69.: r10.66 : r10.74 : ===== From end Feb'20, GLD/ Gold has been the weakest of these four. Oil stocks (XLE) have also outperformed CRB for most of the years since 2000 Ratio - down 63.6% from the Peak Ratio (16.16x) of Gold-to-CRB
  22. GOLD versus Housing - Look for Home prices to fall I like to look at the Ratio between Gold and PHM, one of the largest Homebuilder - now less than Half the peak ratio (91x) My opinion is that rising rates will hit Homebuilders more than it will Gold, or Gold shares The Fed caused 'housing inflation,' this is when home prices will drop - Danielle DiMartino Booth "the bidding wars have ended... the few honest realtors will tell you"
  23. Mega-Bullish on Gold (and Gold shares) UGL wCrb: YTD: w/GDX: GLD-1yr: UGL 10d: GLD: GDX 10d. Gold is now very cheap vs. CRB too - see above: down -63.6% from 16.16x to 5.89x CRB (as Oil etc, rose) Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2 ( Here's a big bull, who cite the Cup and Handle formation ) : Peter Grandich: The Most Bullish Precious Metals Setup in my 38-Year Career "People who put their money in Bitcoin may find they have lost so much, they don't have enough left to come back to Gold." "The Cup-and-Handle chart is the most bullish Gold chart I have seen in my 38 years" - at 18 minutes in. He is also a big fan of Uranium, and more specifically on Cameco
  24. HOW DO I STOP a parasite like Bobbyinvok? You Owe me big time, Azhat, for all the time, I have wasted deleting your unwanted posts. If I find a way to get even, I will
  25. ANOTHER QUESTION on Tandem buying "Interesting and great to see that this idea has pushed through..." Q: What is the embedded financing cost for the tenant? It has to be rent + financing in order to make sense for the seller because otherwise he has an opportunity cost of not getting the money right away. Financing the unit is also an additional incentive to buy after 2y because otherwise the money is gone. A: There are some difficulties in answering that question: 1. How do you value & take into consideration the "extra discount" that was likely obtained, because the purchase was originally negotiated as a cash purchase? (My view is that there may often be enough price savings to pay for ALL of the extra cost embedded in the Option Price to buyer#2. If not, maybe seek another property where the discount is larger.) 2. How do you value the option? Surely it is not correct to value it at Zero. (If you value it fairly at 10% plus, then there might be no extra finance cost. Option values depend on strike and implied volatility. If the 2nd Buyer has to wait. The same price may not be there, in fact the option strike price might not even be obtainable. Addition advantage for TOB is: If the market slides, the 2nd Buyer can seek a different property to buy. That flexibility has real value in a highly volatile market.) 3. Renting a property where you have an option to buy encourages different behaviour. So if you compare this situation to a straight tenancy, you are ignoring the "positive feedback loop" which might benefit both parties - when it comes to buying furniture, and taking care of the unit, upgrading it, etc 4. After one year, the option might be extended, even if this flexibility is not written into the contract. The deal cut to extend then will probably look different than if the first year had not happened. If the TOB insists, some form of agreed extension might be written into the original contract. == In short. If you try to work out an "imbedded finance cost", You will likely have to make some assumptions that ignore or undervalue some of the advantages implicit in the deal. Okay to do that, but you need to understand it is a narrow way of looking at the deal. BTW, the initial questioner has come back with further questions about how the Option/Rental period might be extended. Under a 1 year deal, the upside for Buyer#1 is capped for 1 year, at maybe 20%*. What would the want in return for capping it a second year? Above market rent? Increased strike price? Maybe a little of both. / in my example, the purchase price is 27% below zonal valuation. So capping the 1 year return at 20% would be a meaningful curtailment of the return. The main advantage to Buyer#1 - OCB is having a committed tenant from day1. /
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