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jsr

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Everything posted by jsr

  1. jsr

    Gold One / Goliath Gold

    Email response from their IR manager- Ilja Graulich Jas We have not made full announcements on the debt, this will come in time Below responses to some of the major questions, we have had, including your questions Also, we are looking at some 500 retrenchments @ RU as we speak to bring costs down, and optimisation of treatment of ore. IDG Are the assets BEE compliant post GDO’s acquisition and what is GDO’s effective level of ownership? No the assets as they are currently contemplated in the sale are not BEE compliant. To achieve approval of the transaction from the Department of mineral Resources (DMR) BEE compliancy will need to be put into place prior to the transaction being finalized. This will be done using a similar model to that applied at the other Gold One assets, e.g. Modder East and Goliath. Effectively this is done at an asset level where 26% of the asset is sold to the BEE partners funded by vendor financing and repaid over time at market related prices. As such Gold One will effectively hold 100% of the assets for now. What levels of CAPEX do you envisage for the Cooke Gold Plant reconfiguration to treat underground ores? Less than R20 million ($3 million). The Cooke plant has over the past few years been significantly upgraded By Rand Uranium to treat the surface sand material. It has also recently been “re-commissioned” on underground ore in limited volumes that have been batch treated during times when the Doornkop plant has been temporarily unavailable. The proposed Capex expenditure largely relates to upgrading the existing tanks within the plant and minor work on the mills. Once uranium production starts, an additional R25 million capital expenditure is envisaged to split the gold only and gold and uranium bearing ore into separate streams. What improvement on current operating costs (ZAR1,000/t) are you targeting at Cooke underground? Over the next 12 to 24 months we are looking at reducing the underground operating costs by at least 20%. Given the depth and volumes planned, opex costs for this operation should be approximately R750 – R800/ton. Additional cost savings will also be made on the processing side once all ore is treated at the Cooke Plant as opposed to the toll treating at Doornkop. This change over is anticipated to take between 6 and 12 months and processing costs could be reduced by as much as 30%. What levels of CAPEX are being scoped for the new uranium processing facility? A total CAPEX of R2.8 bn (~$410 million) of which R0.3 bn is directly related to the tailings depositional facility and the remainder to the U Plant. Gold One will review in detail the existing feasibility study to determine whether any cost savings in this regard are prudent (initial indications are that some savings are likely). What sort of operating costs are targeted in the uranium study? It is important to recognise that Gold One does not view the uranium project as a “standalone” project but rather as a co-product that facilitates a reduction in gold operating costs. This is probably the single biggest difference between Gold One’s view and that of the current owners which makes this acquisition so exciting in the medium term. However to try and split out uranium costs alone would suggest that operating costs for the surface resource only are about 45$/lb (in addition gold would be recovered from this dump which when taken as a credit to U opex, would result in a net OPEX cost of 40$/lb). If underground ore is included (i.e. mining costs carried by Gold production and only processing costs carried by Uranium) then total operating costs for U production is about 40$/lb. When considering the co-product model, our modelling suggests that at steady state, gold cash costs (including uranium credits) will be below US$400/oz. When is GDO hoping to make an investment decision on the uranium project? In 2012. This will follow a detailed review of the existing feasibility study as well as an optimised co-product mining plan being developed.
  2. jsr

    Gold One / Goliath Gold

    http://www.gold1.co.za/index.php?option=com_docman&Itemid=79&task=doc_download&gid=686 Wow. That's a lot of leverage now. $270m debt total now, slightly concerning. However, if we see $2000 gold ... 5 bagger? 10 bagger?!
  3. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Take NNVC on a 5 year weekly log chart, and it all becomes apparant what is going on
  4. Sorry, I was referring to the time of the year. Think in terms of astrology.
  5. Charlie I don't suppose you learnt when each investor was born? I do think this has a huge impact on ones personality traits. As for making them a successful investor, I don't know.
  6. They do not appear to have ever been cash flow positive. Why restart the mine if it's not making money at today's prices? What am I missing here?
  7. I have been working on an advanced Excel mining valuation model. I have an odd interest in these quantitative financial things, probably because I am not particularly fond of the TV. Anyhow, I wanted to refine it, and was hoping for some guidance from those who really know how to put a financial statement together, and know what can be offset against what. I find a a company may sound like it's a great story, and give all the 'IR talk', but it's not until you work with the numbers (capex, cashflow, costs, debt, warrants, reserves etc...) and project the future growth does it really become apparent what you are buying. This can be very time consuming, especially if you want to throw in a load of different variables. More often than not, it's the boring stuff which I find really takes off, where I suspect many investors have overlooked as it failed to excite. Nonetheless, the numbers work very well. The end result should give us a model which will separate the wheat from the chaff ... the one which will turn into a cash machine, verses the one which will turn into a cash furnace.
  8. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    I don't know DS, sounds like a gamble to me On a serious note, it has rallied into resistance this time, rather than pop like the last two. So maybe this time it will be different?
  9. Hi Charlie I look forward to reading the book. 1. When interviewing the investors, did you notice a single personality trait which was common to all? 2. Did you get a sense that the investors seemed less attached to material items than your average joe?
  10. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    The SP has been quite active last few days. Has that Patrick opened his mouth again?
  11. jsr

    Gold One / Goliath Gold

    I'm 100% happy with my Gold One purchase so far. Thanks for bringing this one to our attention!
  12. Questions - 1. Option and warrants as a sum of Enterprise Value Method one - Black Scholes value deducted from EV? Or Method two - Value(s) if exercised deducted from EV? There's no standard, either seems acceptable, depending on what literature you read. What rationale is there to choose one over the other? 2. In the case of miners, what can be offset against profit before tax? I assume this may vary from one country to another. The mines themselves are generally created as subsidaries in the country of operations, of a parent company where its shares are traded. Double taxation? Capital expenditures to build a new mine? Can exploration expenditure really be offset? (I struggle with this one, must be so much room for abuse)! Debt - paying down the principle of debt, can this be offset against profit? Profit before Tax is generally summarised as Changes to working capital + operating profit - interest - other expenses - Depreciation & Amortization. Correct? P.s - I don't intend to get into the real nitty gritty of the financial statements of this model, as that would undermine the whole point of creating it. But a better understanding of putting financial statements together is crucial. 3. Taxation If anyone can provide or point me to where I can find the country specific rates and bands I would be most grateful!
  13. 300k a year? You gotta be f***ing kiddin me! 300k a year just to host a site for members to whinge? What is your source? Cheers
  14. jsr

    GOLD

    Two likely scenerios ... What do the Gold Bulls think? Notice the large gap up on the 18th.
  15. You could just take a week out and paper trade both strategies, or paper trade one strategy and the other real and vice versa. As for creating a good trading system in a month, I wouldn't underestimate yourself. The problem with investing and trading, there is too much noise and opinions out there which not only drowns your own thinking, but complicates the process. I find physical fitness most benificial. It stops you overthinking. BTW, what is BMT?
  16. jsr

    GOLD

    Nice chart Pix. Would you be able to reporduce that with some moving averages? Say 50, 76, 144, 200, and 252?
  17. jsr

    SILVER

    Although my silver timing has been absolutely terrible, I would tend to agree with you. Look at the price action on SLV on friday to see what I mean. Pix, what's your 2011 target for silver?
  18. jsr

    GOLD

    GF, any time I begin to question if gold is overheated, I can always rely on your comments to put me back on the right track.
  19. jsr

    GOLD

    De ja vu ... Again!
  20. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Grr!! Thanks for that, but not what I wanted to hear. BTW, what's Patrick's track record like?
  21. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Up 10 percent today! New rally? I do think so ...
  22. The crash which everyone appears to be waiting for, may not happen. It may just be the case that rents will continue to rise to the point where it is cheper to buy than rent. While house prices remain weak in nominal terms, and falling in real terms.
  23. They should hire Investors to write the press releases. After all, only an investor truly knows what another investor wants to hear! P.s - I've replied to your comments on my blog.
  24. jsr

    Nanoviricides / NNVC

    Also, http://www.newhavenindependent.org/index.p...seases/id_33450 The warehouse hard by the railroad tracks isn’t the stereotypical headquarters for a cutting-edge company hatching big-time breakthrough medicines. There’s no fancy logo sign, no sweeping glass-and-metal entrance area, no headset-wearing assistants. But this biomedical outfit has millions in the bank. It’s just spending wisely as it develops the Venus Flytrap of antiviral drugs. The company, NanoViricides, Inc., raised $10 million last year, including a December infusion of $2.5 million. Its quest: develop a biodegradable setup based on polymers that takes advantage of the way viruses succeed, by binding to a healthy cell. The treatment poses as a regular cell, then wraps up the viral particle. By breaking up the virus, and preventing it from successfully binding to healthy cells, the therapy stops the disease in its tracks, just like a Venus Flytrap ensares a bug. “When the virus binds, it opens up and grabs it,” said founder Anil R. Diwan, who began developing the his idea at New Haven’s Science Park and moved it to West Haven to save money on overhead. Diwan and his 10-person staff made a point of pinching pennies on costs that don’t have to do directly with drug development. Its Wood Street building, for example, had pigeons—and their droppings—inside when Diwan first moved in about 10 years ago. “We’ve spent about $14 million,” Diwan said. “That contrasts with companies that are developing just one or two drugs, and they’re spending $25 million a quarter.” NanoViricides is one of countless companies betting on the promise of nanotechnology. That’s the science of making super-products—like medicines, bike frames and sunscreen—out of super-small particles. The pharmaceutical field regards nanotech as a huge opportunity to fight disease from the inside out. NanoViricides is working on therapies based on the new concept for several diseases, including HIV, influenza and Dengue viruses. The company’s flu drug has consistently outperformed the leading drug, called Tamiflu, according to Diwan. Animal testing on eye drops that treat a nasty form of pink eye has been successful, and the company is developing a skin cream to fight herpes. The company is close to starting the process—usually long and expensive, and occasionally difficult—of getting Food and Drug Administration approval for clinical testing in humans, the first step in bringing any drug to market. Diwan, currently the chairman and president of NanoViricides, may be headed for a big payday if and when his treatments come to the marketplace. But it’s been a long road already, and the journey is far from finished. “The initial discovery of what materials will actually work took a long, long time,” he said. For the first few years, money was a big problem. Federal grants, the backbone of academic research funding, are cyclical, never guaranteed. Investors promised big numbers, then disappeared. And nobody wants to lend laboratory time on credit, so progress was slow. Diwan likes to concentrate on studies outside the test tube, which are a better indicator of the effectiveness of a treatment—but also cost more. And some of the company’s initial projects focused on diseases, such as rabies and the Ebola and Marburg viruses, that generally don’t attract a lot of funding. “With small amounts of money, you are able to do only small amounts of work,” Diwan said. Last year, he said, was the first time the company raised what he considers a good amount of money: $10 million. This kind of cash flow is enabling NanoViricides’ leadership to start thinking about a production facility for the therapies, a key long-term part of the FDA approval process. The agency places a particular emphasis on the ability to make a consistent product. The company is probably going to look outside Connecticut for manufacturing, breaking a long streak of Diwan’s. He’s originally from India, but landed at Rice University to complete his Ph.D. in biochemical engineering. Diwan got a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Connecticut, then a job at Eastman Kodak Co. in New Haven. Then there was the move to Science Park, and finally West Haven. He started tinkering with the technology that later became the “nanoviricide” by working on gene therapies in the oncology field. But viruses seemed ripe for something that was “simpler and better” than the existing treatments, Diwan said. There was also the influence of Eugene Seymour, now the company’s CEO, who wanted to help bring in funding. Seymour was interested in viruses like HIV and influenza, so NanoViricides emerged with that focus. The 2005 bird flu epidemic gave influenza research a new urgency. NanoViricides was able to test its therapy in Vietnam, where Diwan could get access to the virus. It worked, boosting the company’s stock price and paving the way for the consistent push for innovation that has followed. The treatment differs for each targeted disease, Diwan said, but what came first was a focus on how virus particles always look for cells with which to bind, regardless of the virus’ makeup. “What is staying constant? The ability to bind to the cells,” he said. “That’s where we start from.” The delivery module, called a polymeric micelle, can fold at will. So the viral particle becomes encapsulated. In addition to breaking the virus apart, they will exit the body, taking the virus with them, Diwan said. These kinds of treatments—using engineered nanoparticles to either carry medicine right to diseased areas, as with some cancer treatments, or to destroy viruses—are the bulwark of nanomedicine. Diwan points out that in a sense, nanomedicine is nothing new, since vaccines work on the same super-small level, and a lifesaving synthetic drug such as insulin is similarly engineered. What’s different now, he said, is that scientists are creating machines out of these tiny materials, little engines that can search and destroy. There’s also still lots of what Diwan cals “low-lying fruit,” such as topical applications that use nanoparticles. “I should have thought about skin creams about five years ago,” he said, chuckling.
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