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confounded

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Everything posted by confounded

  1. Thanks Goldfinger, some way to run yet just to hit the 70's first peak.
  2. I like this graph and is one of the reasons why I was wondering if they could be allowing it to run a bit before hammering it down again, similar to the 1970's, before the real action comes as all fiat unravels in 10 years time? What price level would gold need to hit in $ terms before we reach the 1975's first peak?
  3. I am a follower and believer in gold as real money but also fall into the camp that believes every part of our capital markets are being manipulated. Where have the smack downs gone? I am a believer that the USD is staring into the abyss but also believe it has some life in it yet. In 08 I felt we should have exceeded the current price but because of continued intervention they kept a lid on it. Why have the stepped back now? Could they be trying to create a blow out top or is there some other motive?
  4. Is this the reason for the counter trend 5% rise on Friday? http://www.zerohedge.com/article/civil-and...et-manipulation Civil And Criminal Probes Launched Against JP Morgan For Silver Market Manipulation Yes, it is really happening. After years and years and years of market manipulation, JPMorgan is about to realize there is only so far you can push your luck against the criminal envelope. In other news, when silver doubles shortly, Andrew Maguire is about to become a patron saint to generations of long-suffering gold and silver "bugs" the world throughout. From Michael Gray of the NY Post. Federal agents have launched parallel criminal and civil probes of JPMorgan Chase and its trading activity in the precious metals market, The Post has learned. The probes are centering on whether or not JPMorgan, a top derivatives holder in precious metals, acted improperly to depress the price of silver, sources said. The Commodities Futures Trade Commission is looking into civil charges, and the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division is handling the criminal probe, according to sources, who did not wish to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information. The probes are far-ranging, with federal officials looking into JPMorgan's precious metals trades on the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) exchange, which is a physical delivery market, and the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) for future paper derivative trades. JPMorgan increased its silver derivative holdings by $6.76 billion, or about 220 million ounces, during the last three months of 2009, according to the Office of Comptroller of the Currency. Regulators are pulling trading tickets on JPMorgan's precious metals moves on all the exchanges as part of the probe, sources tell The Post. JPMorgan has not been charged with any wrongdoing. The DOJ and CFTC each declined to comment, as did JPMorgan.
  5. Not had a chance to read this but I am sure it will be of interest. At the same time the corruption is common knowledge now. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/project-m...ted-silver-etfs During our research into the inventory lists of the iShares SLV and London-based ETFS physical silver funds, we discovered multiple anomalies which cannot be easily dismissed. These included the presence of internal duplicates, rough internal duplicates, weight duplicates, statistical clustering, and cross-reference duplicates. Taken together, these anomalies are cause for concern, and we suggest that more capable teams conduct further research into these issues, as they effect price discovery within the precious metals market, as these ETF shares are being used for settlement and possibly pricesuppression on the COMEX. If these problems are caused by accounting errors, they are disturbing and perhaps profoundly incompetent, and we suggest both these funds should have their senior management replaced. In our opinions, the only way for all of these anomalies to occur together as noted in this paper, is via systemic fraud or gross accounting error bordering on jaw-dropping incompetence.
  6. 1KG below £18K! I sold out at £21,625 (not saying this in an antagonistic way), where is this heading, I have a bad feeling they can't combat the deflation.
  7. Thanks I'll check it out. The manipulation has really spooked me in the past and I guess once bitten twice shy. As stated I am completely in the gold camp as being the only real currency but we are in uncharted territory and the spike in the 80's was clearly a learning point for those in charge. I am still of the view they will have one more attempt to knock it down, well I was today and when it fell below 900 I thought it was happening then bam. Now looks like it could go either way, and if it was not for the threat of a smack down (A lot less evident since the Election passed!) my bet of course would be up. Edited Anyone know the best place to buy this, I usually use the book depository and they don't stock it.
  8. I guess that's what happens when you print lots of money. Fed pumps $1.2tn into US economy http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7951493.stm Will any of this limitless printing be used to suppress gold? That is what is always nagging at the back of my mind, I have never disputed the role gold should play and bought into that a while ago (although not earlier enough to accumulate at the lows).
  9. Great post, and is how I have been reading it recently, but in a much less informed way.
  10. Not dismissing this as a possible outcome, hyperinflation through currency collapse, I just don't think we are at that stage now, but given the speed things can happen I may regret taking my current stance. My View on the 1970-80's spike is it got away from them, it is not possible to beat the market they can only chose the best possible times to have maximum effect and the cause the appearance they want. Also they would have learnt from it and probably know now more than ever the effect high gold price has on a the confidence in a fiat system. If I was them I would be striking on gold soon. I actually think the run up in 2007 was manipulated I think it would have been a lot higher than the $1000 it got to. Banking institution that had been around for 130 years collapsing and gold did not even reach an inflation adjusted high from a relatively minor in comparison crisis. I remember the regular 1:30 and 3:30 smack downs which we have not seen for a while now and which is making me feel uneasy currently. Many of you guys were informed enough to buy physical at the right time, If I owned physical gold at £350/oz or less then there is no way I would be selling it. I absolutely do not feel this is the end of the bull market for gold, however I believe this is the picture they will try and paint. There is still a chance the market could get away from them and we see the highs you quote, I don't see those figures as crazy but I stand by my view this may not be the time for that rally. Circumstance change rapidly and I reserve the right to change my mind again
  11. Hi hotairmail, Why? Well a number of reasons including current gut feel. Instinct told me this would be a deflationary bust before I understood (as best I can ) our financial system. Then with education from the likes of CGNAO etc I could see the main way the governments would try and tackle this mess was through increasing money supply, which was the view I stuck with until recently. Now having seen data coming out of the East the collapse is breathtaking and although I did not ever buy into the East carrying the West through this crisis I did think there would be enough activity to keep the inflationary pressure on. Also observation about watching what the governments do not what they say. In the UK for example no one has yet received a mortgage bailout, NR is still repossessing and reducing it's loan book. In the US the bailouts disappointed the equity markets for the lack of free inflationary money and the timescale the money being rolled out. So I am currently getting the feeling they want to destroy the boom money that causes the imbalances in our economy before they can confidently try to stimulate when they can get some sort of stability again without the hyper inflation feared. After all hyper inflation is not the solution it will still end in a depression and crash the bond markets. As stated earlier I think they may try to and give gold a hammering this time round to reinforce the deflationary side to the true smart money in the bonds (this is not to say I think gold story is over and people in it are wrong it is just I am being cautious purely because of the manipulation). The manipulation of gold on this recent uptrend has been ominously absent, almost as if they wanted it to rise to double top territory while holding their powder dry. This approach would Keep rates low reducing the debt burden while encouraging the "savvy investors" with boom proceeds into deflating assets to assist with a more gradual fall in them through the threat of quantitative easing and low saving rates. These are my current views/ramblings based on my approach of trying to think how the leaders might think when trying to solve these problems. I am primed for inflation if I am wrong but being in cash I can move quickly to respond to this. The response to FWIW is now up, just took a while to find the time.
  12. Thanks for your post, for fear of derailing an important thread I will respond to it on my PPT thread started a while ago.
  13. Some people are more receptive to the idea than others
  14. I am prepaired to be wrong but everything is managed (to the best of their abilities) these days and if you try and think from the point of view of those in charge it seems to be pretty much what happens. See my post on the other dark side yesterday Link By thinking as if I were someone who wanted to protect the markets/system it is remarkably easy to call the intervention. This is not based on chartism/support levels, just my view of the charts at the time and when they seem to be getting out of control.
  15. There are people expecting a pull back, forced sales are coming into the market due to latest leg down on the markets (look at GSK for a stock that exhibits these deleveraging phases) and the $ chart would form a nice double top, this is the perfect time to strike and I think they will be successful in their attempt, as you say they will ultimately fail. I will be going substantially stronger into Silver and Gold if they do beat it down again. I think wee could see lower lows in both Silver and Gold. As someone pointed out on anther thread I read this could be a deflationary tactic to force people into bonds and keep rates down to help manage the debt burden. I think a lot of the quantitative easy talk is a bluff to draw in "smart (read easy come easy go)" money from the sidelines into stock and houses so it can be properly destroyed in the bubble deflation and the remainder of the gap left after this will possible come from quantitative easing. Central banks do not have control of things atm and they are likely very weary of causing runaway inflation, once they gain control of the situation to the downside they are likely to try and re inflate then but I do think we are in for a period of deflation (I have been firmly in the inflation camp for 2 years) but have recently re-evaluated things.
  16. This is what I have been anticipating, I think they will try and for a double top for gold so it is the technically most damaging set up. We are going to have some very interesting charts by the time we a done with this bull market.
  17. Surely the silver deal is the best one!
  18. DOW plunge being used as pressure to get people to change their vote! DOW recovered 300 points but I doubt they will be telling the delegates that!
  19. What for gold in the short term (today). I am forming the view that the bailout will crumble as people discuss moral hazard, I think they will allow the stock markets to crash for the first time in this crisis, over 1000 points in the next 3 trading days. Possibly 600 points plus today so they have the weekend to ram home the importance. This will help people make up their minds about the bail out and will probably panic the bill through. So if this scenario comes off what will happen to gold. Will it fall as people sell good assets to cover bad with also with the bail out not happening people take a less inflationary view increasing a precipitous sell off of PM's. Or will the panic of a proper crash in the SM's cause panic into safety of the yellow stuff? Either way there will be fireworks in PM's today
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