Everything posted by FWIW
Please can someone explain in plain english what all those lines mean from Ker's post? I am not a chartist...the only waves I know about are surfing ones.... Will the dollar collapse? Because at the moment it is putting up a strong fight....I expected to be back at £1=$2 by now...
FWIW replied to drbubb's topic in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etcYes, that's the problem - Dubai has only recently opened up to foreigners. Therefore, I don't think there are sufficient property records in place. For example, the Dubai Land Registry and the Real Estate Regulation Authority (RERA) were only setup last year. From my own experiences I can generalise that property prices trippled from 2003 to 2007. 2008 is still rising as far as I understand it. There are some nice tools to be found here for recent sales transactions: http://www.alineah.com/market_analysis.asp Will be an interesting experiment to see if Dubai fits into the Fred's general theory.
FWIW replied to drbubb's topic in Main: Property in UK, US, Oz, HK, etcHello Dr.Bubb, My first post here - was lurking here and on HPC for a long time. Saw your videos and wanted to say well done and hi! I have also read Fred's BoomBust Edition 2 book and found it fascinating. One of the areas I would like to discuss with you is the application of the 18 year rule (to greatly over-simplify his whole book!) to other countries. Fred mentions that the rule holds true no matter if a land starved island(UK) or massive expansive (Oz). As I am invested in property in Dubai, I am intersted in hearing your views on wether this rule will apply in Dubai. Of particular note is that in the Year 2002 - Foreign ownership allowed in limited freezone areas. Using Fred's generalised 18 year rule, I have come up with the following: 2002 Boom 2003 Boom 2004 Boom 2005 Boom 2006 Boom 2007 Boom 2008 Boom / mini-recession 2009 Boom / mini-recession 2010 Boom 2011 Boom 2012 Boom 2013 Boom / Winner's Curse 2014 Boom / Winner's Curse 2015 Boom / Peaking 2016 Bust 2017 Bust 2018 Bust 2019 Bust Of course the global gredit crunch could disrupt the cycle, but I expect Dubai to folow these rules. What do you think? In 2014 I would probably get out off Dubai and back into the UK. Regards, FWIW