TW11

USD dropped out of that triangle

Amalgamator is buying silver here.

<said in a Swiss accent>, "they (he) will print and print and print". I am thinking an Asian bolthole might be a good idea....

What do you reckon to this then, guys? JP Morgan admits defeat

Bit of a jump on UK 10 yr yield

Gotta laugh, there was an RB contra-indicator a few days ago on HPC. Never fails. We really ought to give him some sort of commission My copper short more than doing it's job. Was looking for a target for the dollar index but I think that's all out the window now.

Hehe, I dodged Oct '08 but only because the correction back in '06 taught me a very very painful lesson - in an astonishingly short space of time Back then you could read smug comments on various blogs about how it was a lesson that you had to pay for and that you would learn from it. It irritated the hell out of me at the time, but I have to admit that it is true. I am very philosophical about it now. I think that if you are going to buy gold stocks then I think you have to do some basic TA* - I don't want to admit that it works but...... well, it does. *and I admit that my TA is embarrassingly simple but it works.

I think the problem is that to buy/sell anything just now you have to take a view on the general equity market. Of all the market commentators and blogs I follow it is hard to find a bearish commentator - even the voiciferous bears from a few months back have gone quiet. This rally has been astonishing in its strength. When I look at the gold and USDX charts then I'd be happy long gold at this point. I think there's some resistance on USDX up around 83 ish (fib retrace) maybe the old support at 82.6 will become resistant. But all that goes out the window if equities head south again. Having said all that it maybe classic wall-of-worry stuff. I am pretty good at catching bottoms but I am absolutely hopeless at selling tops - I always sell too soon. And I am also hopeless with currencies... I'm less inclined now to try and get clever with all this. I wish I had GF's resolve and certainty, at some point the rule book will get torn up.

Yep, I think if equities go then gold stocks will go with them. Maybe one day they will de-couple, but for now I think the relationship will remain. I am reliant on my small short to protect from this. I have to admit that it's not my style and I don't like to change what has been a hugely successful strategy over the last five years. I'm not keen on bullion. I prefer the more turbo charged returns on the stocks plus I can use stops and be out quickly. It just works for me.

Gold is a bit difficult for me at the moment. I'm sitting on a good profit with my gold stocks - the sort of profit I always took in recent years. But for the first time in five years I'm not keen to sell. I'm worried I might not get back in again. I see the SPX 61.8% retrace for this rally is bang ahead (@ around 1228 I think) and with all the sovereign debt crises I think that that if it goes then everything will get clobbered again. I stuck a small copper short on last week and took profit from almost all my oils. I'm happy to gain on the swings and lose on the roundabouts for a while in order to protect the gold position. Not really comfortable with any of this at the moment.

Don't want to sidetrack the gold thread, but does anyone know if Prechter fully discounted money printing in his work?

Some of the scenarios people are preparing themselves for aren't once in a hundred year events, they are The Big One - and I mean beyond the Great Depression. Statistically it is possible, but given the chances...well it's not a trade I'd be interested in. You might as well position yourself to profit from the arrival of ET. Great if ET does show up, but given the chances of it, I wouldn't be holding my breath... Gold right now is just protection from the devaluation of cash. Nothing more.

Faber's latest media appearance... We have a new gold standard Ok, an emotive link title, it was only a soundbite. But it is his clarity of thought that I like. He keeps it simple and I think the simple answers are usually the best. All currencies are crap. <link doesn't work for me in Firefox, but is ok in IE>

This is great from Faber, not just on gold. I find his media appearances can be too brief, it's good when he gets longer to discuss things. Faber March 10th