peach

Yes, without over 50% drop, unlikely to call a bottom - unless high or hyper-inflation, then the % must be inflation adjusted. Personally, am looking at c. 70% drop in 2012-2014. Know for a fact of a small local area in Manchester, 3 miles from city centre - properties there went from the 10K range to the 100K range within 5-7 years, its unbelievable return. When I first visted in 2002, I could not believe there was a proper 2 bed terraced house in UK worth under 15K, let alone in Manchester, while my friend was thinking of buying a similar house in London for 150K. These type of properties then increased to over 90K in the peak of 2007. The % return is unbelievable and far more than the average house price. The bubble is just way too big and it will collapse big time. I know there are BTL investors, one owns 60 of those in just that area and another 30. The one who owns 30 properties only started in 04/05. The area is one of the poorest in the country and surely demand was artificially generated given the number of properties these investors hold. I think this area will fall back to near the 15K range and might never rise to the levels seen in this cycle again until the memory is erased with generations passed - comparison to Kingswood Villas in Tin Shui Wai, Hong Kong - for those who know about Hong Kong!