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Icarus

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About Icarus

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    Tri-Centurion
  1. Icarus

    GOLD

    Gold futures are now being traded on HKMEX. Good news for competition and free markets. Bad news for the CME and the dollar. When commodity futures are traded in RMB the dollar's reserve currency status is gone. A gift to the east from the CME. http://www.hkmerc.com/en/index.html
  2. Icarus

    SILVER

    Suggesting that margin requirements do not affect price reveals gross incompetence. It is a well understood that raising margins decreases price and lower margins increases price. See, for example, the paper 'The role of margin requirements and haircuts in procyclicality' by David Longworth of the Bank of Canada. 'In the upswing, a reduction in haircuts or initial margins increases the maximum leverage available to a borrower even if other credit terms remain unchanged. As the leverage that can be effectively employed increases, additional purchases of collateral assets can be financed.... ...In a downturn, actions taken by individual market participants to protect themselves, such as calling for additional collateral, reducing the amount of credit extended to specific classes of counterparties or ceasing to accept certain types of collateral, can induce further contraction of the supply of credit through collateralised lending. This may lead leveraged investors to liquidate assets, which in turn may lower collateral values and intensify deleveraging pressure through further margin and collateral calls, or other responses by credit providers. In extremis, where calls for additional collateral cannot be met, forced liquidations or seizure of collateral by lenders can result, reinforcing and accelerating the adverse asset price dynamics.' http://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs36.pdf To even suggest that raising margin requirements does not affect price suggests gross incompetence at best. People who do not understand the relationship between margins and prices should not be setting margins at the CME. In which case they should step down. If they do understand the relationship between prices and margins they have knowingly commited fraud.
  3. Personally, I care what you do. Other than possibly keeping some cash away from the real commodity silver OTC derivatives should have no major impact on the silver market. No silver is bought or sold. It is pure gambling. I have no interest, other than having my money taken through taxes and given to insolvent banks to allow you to gamble at low cost. It is not investors calling traders a mafia, is it? The price of silver going up and down in the short term is not what annoys me. Price fixing by the CME is what I am complaining about. How can anyone invest with the price fixing and market distortion that exist in the silver market? There can be no doubt that prices are being fixed. What other results could five margin hikes per week bring but lower prices? There is no doubt. It is fraud.
  4. Yes, buying highly leveraged over the counter derivatives from insolvent banks does seem to be a good idea. The risk of banks going bust and you losing all your money is negligable, as all loses are bailed out by the taxpayer. If you ask me you should do what is best for yourself. If there is a way to screw some cash out of the system, may as well do it. Don't pretend this is somehow an ethical investment, though. It is not. Bailing out banks is costing ordinary people huge amounts of money. A lot of people are seeing their standard of living smashed to pieces to bail out banks and keep your 'investment' safe. At first glance trading appears to be quite technical and scientific. It is not. The jargon used by traders can take a while to learn. The modus operandi of a specific market or exchange may take a little research. Perhaps you would need to read a book. But once these basics are understood and you come to the real nitty gritty of trading. And it is all nonsense. Superstition, numerology, astrology, chartism, pi cycles, fibonacci numbers and other suck mumbo jumbo. Complete foolishness. Ask a trader when was the last time they read a companies anual report. They will likely never have read one, ever. Fundamentals are irrelevant to trading. They just like to gamble on market movements. It is gambling and nothing more. As with all gamblers, they feel very clever when the gamble pays off and silly when it does not. In general, though, traders only really gain by following market trends.
  5. Icarus

    SILVER

    Over the years I've come to trust my own judgement over the advice of most so-called experts.But there are rare exceptions to this rule. Ted Butler's advice on silver is one such exception. His review of last weeks mess is here http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1304873055.php
  6. Icarus

    GOLD

    That is a restricted, local metal exchange. I could not buy and sell gold there. 'At present the Chinese regulations stipulate that only the companies or organizations that are organized and registered on Mainland China or Mainland citizens are allowed to participate in the trading of local futures markets.' http://www.shfe.com.cn/docview/docview_410172833.htm The Hong Kong based exchange is aiming to provide a regional benchmark price. I will be able to buy and take delivery of metal. 'While gold futures trading on Asian exchanges has demonstrated significant growth, there is currently no contract that is or will likely become a regional benchmark contract for gold pricing. Without a regional benchmark, true price discovery for gold is either confined to the local in-country market or must depend on the European or North American markets. In-country markets generally restrict foreign participation and often subject it to adverse currency restrictions or tax treatment. Meanwhile, global benchmark pricing from the western hemisphere provides imperfect hedging for Asia’s trading community. HKMEx is well positioned to address the demand of Asia’s trading community for the establishment of a gold futures contract as the regional benchmark.' http://www.hkmerc.com/en/products/products_information/index.html
  7. Icarus

    GOLD

    The 18th should be a big day for gold. The opening of the HKMEx allows gold price discovery to take place in Asia. It will be interesting to see how the comex enjoys a little competition. If they are less corrupt than comex, which means anything less than outright price fixing, they are likely to become the world's preferred trading venue. After recent events in the silver market I think most people would rather trade somewhere where they are less likely to see 5 margin hikes in two weeks. The PBOC might turn out to be less accomodating to JP Morgan than the fed. I shall be looking to the far east for price discovery from the 18th. Hopefully more commodities, such as silver, oil and wheat will be joining gold soon. http://www.hkmerc.com/en/index.html
  8. Anyone who claims to have predicted this 'pullback' based on charts, fundamentals, a feeling in their bones got it dead wrong. They were very lucky not to have lost their position, as well as some dollars if they went short. To knock the dollar price down this time took blatent and open fraud on the part of the CME. Without fraudulent price fixing the price would still be rising. Nobody predicted four or five huge margin increases in a week. Nobody. That was what it took to fix the price this time. Thia is not a natural correction. This is not a pullback. This is open fraud. It is as simple as that. This time we came close. It took a massive effort on the part of the comex to suppress prices. There is now no doubt at all that the price is being fixed. There will come a time when the CME raises margins and it wont work. Try to trade these markets if you like. But be aware that you may end up holding a pile of paper.
  9. Icarus

    UK House prices: News & Views

    The sooner the better. My living standards were cut to bits by the boom. I wasn't stupid enough to allow myself to take out loans I could never hope to repay. But those who were bid up prices with money they didn't have, preventing me from buying a nice home. Idiots were calculating the maximum monthly payment they could possibly make after they bought food and petrol and taking out the largest possible mortgage. Prices became ridiculous. The entire got economy turned into a house flipping ponzi scheme. And all though it I was forced out of the market. I kept my cash and waited for the inevitable crash. But no! Instead of a crash I got zero percent interest rates. My savings were and are being eroded, so that the foolish could keep their houses at my expense. Idiots get a free house, and I get to pay for it!
  10. Icarus

    SILVER

    His misconception is here. 'here is no reason for investors to expect anything more from silver: Why would a metal -- a commodity with no yield -- accrete value?' Silver is a commodity, not a company. Its price responds to supply and demand. Increased demand from China, India et al industrialising pushes up the price of all industrial commodities, like silver and oil. Do you see the price of oil falling anytime soon? But silver is better than oil. Why? Because silver is a store of value. As money is printed increased investment demand pushes up the silver price.
  11. Icarus

    SILVER

    If this were a top I'm pretty sure the CME wouldn't need to raise margin requirements twice per week.
  12. Icarus

    SILVER

    Seeking Alpha's article 'Short Sellers Now Screaming About a Buy Side Silver Conspiracy' is one of the best articles on silver I've read in a long time. 'It was only a matter of time. Now the talk of silver price conspiracies has shifted from long buyers to those on the other side of the fence. On April 21st, the historically anti-precious metals editorial staff of the London Financial Times ran an article titled "Silver Surge Prompts Conspiracy Theorists". Meanwhile, order was reestablished among the short side conspirators once the COMEX trading floor opened on Monday morning.' http://seekingalpha.com/article/265381-short-sellers-now-screaming-about-a-buy-side-silver-conspiracy?v=1303940178
  13. Icarus

    SILVER

    Jim Turk gave a really good explaination of backwardation here. When silver can't be borrowed traders cant fill contracts with borrowed silver and repay with cheaper future contracts. It's very bullish for silver.
  14. Icarus

    GOLD

    The 'experts' have been calling a bubble since gold hit 400 dollars per ounce. Strange that they never noticed the biggest house price bubble in history. Taking into account risk and inflation I don't see anything I'd like to invest in. Take a look at the divident on stocks With inflation, measured using fiddled CPI stats, is four percent. Do I really want to risk my wealth investing in stocks during an inflationary depression? Gilt yields are also about four percent. So if inflation increases I would lose money by buying gilts. European govt bonds yields look good, but I doubt they can afford to pay. Where should I put my wealth to escape the gold bubble? Any suggestions?
  15. Icarus

    SILVER

    Here's an article discussing the length of commodity bull markets by a GEIer - http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/money-monring-commodities-bull-market-10605 And a video by krassimir petrov - http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-4020393826410739752#
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