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Jake

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Everything posted by Jake

  1. Jake

    GOLD

    How do you know 'it ain't gonna happen'? ''When they fail because they are essentially credit money systems then credit must fail too. It almost did in 2008. When credit fails the economy ceases to function. What that means is that food doesn’t get delivered to grocery stores; petrol isn’t transported to the gas stations; even water and natural gas are cut off by the companies responsible for their delivery; the banking system collapses; governments cease to function and anarchy prevails.'' Sound like fun? Ian Gordon-Longwave. I understand with your feelings towards VAT and CGT on silver though. However if you foresee, for eg, Alf Fields' target of 158 (USD) for silver, then what's a little tax now on a bit of silver?
  2. Jake

    GOLD

    Thats only 27k or so.
  3. Jake

    GOLD

    ..and no counter party risk, either No yield or income flow...far lower long term return than equities. But since 2000 gold has gone from 250 odd to 1750 odd. I wish to have a few other investments like that. And equities since 2000 have done fairly [.....]
  4. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I'd be inclined to give it one more rental contract chance. Gold has come off her highs and London property has gone ape. Is this an early April fools from Dom? And does it mean there'll be no more 'Houses in gold' articles? If Dom really believes that average house prices will fall to 50-100oz/house, I have trouble seeing the logic of the sums. Mind you I dont suppose he is going to use too much gold as a deposit.
  5. Jake

    GOLD

    Some good comments by 'swampfox' there. The writer coming late to the party 'at the end of 2010' will have run into loads of people devoted to the 'cult' but not half as so many that are unaware they are living in the cult of another sort: fiat money. Maybe 'ignorance is bliss', for a long while, at least. Look how gold was treated on HPC (banned) and to a lesser extent on GEI recently (B&H are losers compared to my strategy etc). Any polarising group will attract the extremes but the original message remains the same and reflects best the situation we are in.
  6. Jake

    GOLD

    This happens with me now and again but only when I am using wifi ipod in the garden. After 2 or 3 re-starts the show runs ok. It is very annoying when a show cuts out and the paranoia kicks in but I think it is just a technical glitch. nb this only happens on recently added interviews-maybe it takes a bit of time to get through the 'airwaves'? ps. Like to put a rough guesstimate date on the G:S ratio forecast? 1yr/3yr/5yr?? Thanks GF.
  7. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2012/01/january-16-2012-quo-vadis-britannia.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FlRTBR+%28The+Automatic+Earth%29 ''Still, what makes it striking is the sheer number of people affected. One million people need emergency loans to keep their families in their homes, while six million households have nothing whatsoever saved for a rainy day. If we put the average household size at 2.5 people, that means that, out of 60 million living in Britain, 2.5 million are on the verge of losing their homes, and 15 million, or 25% of the population, risk having to cut on their basic needs, food and heating, if they hit even the slightest speedbump. And what are the chances this situation will improve any time soon? It doesn't look good; in fact it looks set to worsen. While there's no lack of denial, an increasing number of voices admit that the British economy has already slipped back into recession.''
  8. Jake

    GOLD

    Sorry, I had no idea you were in the process of building community-in HK or elsewhere. I agree with you re better investments than B&H btw. Believe me I have spent much of the NY doing just that in many practical ways and it takes time and perserverance. I wasn't looking for a fight.
  9. Jake

    GOLD

    Being a successful investor/speculator by trade gives you an edge, doesn't it? Most people are something other than that. I suspect you would make a very poor farmer, doctor or teacher/social worker. 'Haves' cannot stand the 'have nots'-yet fail to realize how much they need each other/are dependant on one another. B&H also implies that you have bought and are holding (yes!) If anything happens so that it is no longer lawfully possible to B&H, you will have nothing more than a fistful of paper promises, and the simple B&Her will have a pocket full of coins to pass on to his family? Or you think you'll be able to time the event to wrap up there in HK, board a plane to take you to the -as yet-undecided-Shangri La where you can cash in your chips and live happily ever after in some market town above 700m awaiting a tsunami to wipe out the less fortunate... I mean no ill feelings but have you ever read the one about the Hare and the Tortoise?
  10. Jake

    SILVER

    I think Bix Weir always sounded a bit of a lunatic, still I dont think we will have to wait another 30 years for silver to 50 dollars either. Is this the double top? http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Silver_USD.html or this, http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/freelongtermCPIAG1700log.php or this one which needs updating by the looks of things, http://bp2.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RpPk53Zy8lI/AAAAAAAAA7U/Lat33OsaPWA/s1600-h/ss-cpi-silver.png The DJIA:silver looks ok, http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Silver-Ratio.html ''if we take another excursion to the downside how long are the "Silver Liberation Army" going to wait for $50 again? Have we seen a 31 year double top in Silver?'' What do you think PD? How long will we have to wait for 50 dollar silver again?
  11. Jake

    GOLD

    Ian Gordon is a deflationist and a gold bull. I don't think it is one or the other. You can be a gold bull and or deflationist/hyperinflationist. He sees global fiat going to zero.
  12. Jake

    SILVER

    Didn't it recently correct to 26, very briefly? I would relish the 20 figure...and wouldn't you relish the 17.90 or so figure? Larry Edelson thinks it might... ''Gold has plunged through many of the support levels I’ve previously provided you. It’s dropped through the $1,730 level … the $1,610 level … and has thus far reached as low as $1,564. Once it closes below $1,610 on a Friday, which it will likely have done before you even read this column — the stage will be set for gold to collapse to at least $1,435 and, very possibly, as low as the $1,100 mark. And silver, precisely as I’ve been warning you, has started to crash again — losing more than $4 last week and shattering support at the $30 level … then the $29.16 level — and is now ready to make a beeline down to $25 and, very possibly, much lower to $22 to $23 an ounce.'' http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/important-update-on-gold-and-silver-13437?FIELD9=2
  13. Jake

    GOLD

    That article was from 2009, wasn't it?
  14. Jake

    GOLD

    Been re-reading my Alf Fields.. Projected Future Price for Gold If gold retraces the exact gain achieved during the explosive advance from $1478 to $1913, which occurred in just seven weeks, it will represent a decline of 22.8%. That is nicely within the above anticipated range of 21% to 26% for the current decline in gold. There is a possibility that the spike drop to $1531 on 26 September marked the low point of the correction in gold. The midpoint of the correction from $1576 to $1478 is $1527, close to $1531. If $1531 was the low, it was a decline of 20%. This is slightly below expectations, but it still qualifies as one degree larger than 13%. At the date of writing (7 Nov 2011), gold has recovered to $1767, which is a 61.8% retracement of the loss from $1913 to $1531 (-$382), a typical size for this type of recovery. That leaves open the possibility (40% probability?) that gold will have another dip to test the target areas mentioned. The higher the price goes above $1767, the greater the probability that the low was in at $1531.Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for the Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way.
  15. Jake

    GOLD

    Couldn't they simply change the CGT rules when it suits them though? I always consider the cheapest, in best quality, coins as well as the sov/brits. You will always find a buyer who wont charge you CGT, imho...should you want to trade them.
  16. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Is this the UK these days? Has it come to this? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/8784306/Cardiff-after-dark-Maciej-Dakowicz-photographs-the-nightlife-of-the-Welsh-capital.html Perhaps not such a good destination anymore.
  17. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    When? And what will be the 'price' in pounds I wonder. 50-100K/oz, /Av house. I' be happy with that scenario in theory. But the UK might not be worth a punt at that price. ?. What sort of world is GBP 50K gold? First of all I'd like to see USD 5 or 10k/oz. Then we might know more of where we are going.
  18. Jake

    GOLD

    Bubb, Where do you suspect gold and silver will fall to?
  19. Jake

    SILVER

    Romans, Do you have a link for NZ Land/Gold, also property in NZ general. Where are the 'good' places/land. Can foreigners buy NZ property/land? Thanks, j
  20. Jake

    SILVER

    Isn't it time for another red line on that chart, almost verticle, taking the ratio down to 20 or below??
  21. Jake

    GOLD

    This is the bone of contention really, isn't it? Will cash rush to the dollar and the gold 'crash' a la 2008-or far worse- before those dollars run to gold, the ultimate 'safe haven'? Its like playing stepping stones as the stones behind you submerge beneath the water. My goal has always been to get to the other side. But it might be right for some to play it their way. The only trouble with this is that the rules may change along the way. Gold may well one day not be for sale, leaving you with a wad of useless paper. Or physical gold may not go down so much (premiums)/(scarcity)/(supply)/(refiners doing overtime), but paper gold get crushed sending physical even higher as the risk averse scrabble for a place on the liferaft. It looks bullish for physical any which way you look as the end of the day the dollar is as done for as any other fiat. Prechter wants to move to gold when it hits bottom. I wonder about the liklihood of that scenario re physical. Maybe it is possible, I don't think I know...or want to take the risk.
  22. Jake

    GOLD

    Thanks d2. PM'd you.
  23. ''I started forecasting the gold price using the Elliott Wave system. Here too I had to proceed slowly. I felt that I could not reveal my longer term forecast for the gold price because it was so bullish that I would be branded as a nut case.''
  24. Jake

    GOLD

    Marvellous to read Alf Fields again after so long! One wonders how Elliot Waves could be so different...Prechter/Fields...chalk and cheese? Anyway a great read there.
  25. Hi rh,

    Friend of mine moving down to NZ from Japan (he's US) and thinking of buying land, building a house etc...Just wondered if you have any decent links re property/opinion, general NZ pitfalls etc I could pass on to him.

    How is your lot going down there, btw? I remember you were talking of a coffee van at one point and productive land. I note you are in the southern alps. How...

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