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Jake

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Everything posted by Jake

  1. Looks like a bit of a dump. How much are places? Anything 'sustainable' about the area (excluding crime)? Think I'd rather stay in Kowloon. At least you can go out at night without fear. Church is a monstrosity, too. But what do I know?
  2. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Well how about this everyone? Japan residential and commercial down for the 20th year running. Depopulation and no immigration policies signal this beast will fall and fall. Enjoy! http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nb20110921a1.html
  3. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I'd push the boat out to 120oz and a few pieces of eight for that one.
  4. Jake

    GOLD

    So did Errol and a few others, I imagine . But there are some of us who are still earning fiat to convert into money. Others are sipping pina coladas. Or reading.
  5. It is not going to be convertible. What does this mean (for physical holders)?
  6. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    How low will the house price / gold ratio go? The cost in gold of the average house over the past 40 years is 275 ounces. We're already below that. But that doesn't mean we can't go any lower. At the peak of the market in 2005, the average UK house cost an unprecedented 700 ounces. In London it was almost 1,100 ounces. At the bottom of the market in 1980, when gold spiked to $850 an ounce, the average UK home cost just 50 ounces. It also spent several years around the 50 ounce mark during the 1930s. Fischer is convinced we're going back to 50 ounces for the average UK home. I have a slightly more sober, long-term target of 100 ounces, although I wouldn't rule out 50. Once the ratio hits 100, I'll look at rolling my portfolio out of gold and back into housing. I'm confident we'll get there within the next three years. Gold need only rise by a third from here (from £825 to £1,100 an ounce), and house prices fall by a third (£168,000 to £110,000), to give you a 100:1 ratio. Both look very possible given the underlying fundamentals. Or, as is more likely in my view, gold could double from here to £1,650 per ounce, while nominal house prices stay the same. I'm sure those up top would rather see this latter scenario, with nominal house prices remaining unchanged. People will believe that the so-called value of their houses is unaffected, so they won't be too upset. All the while the value of their money is destroyed. But we have so few savers, who cares about that? As one of my correspondents puts it, "nominal house prices remain unchanged, so the muppets are happy". Now at midway point between your target when you penned this and todays 150oz tag, Dominic. What do you think now? London seems to be in a world of its own, for the time being perhaps.
  7. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    But are you happy in it? (sorry)
  8. Jake

    GOLD

    I have no idea. Probably. But he is the representative. And I want to hear the views, regardless. BTW when does the show start? Getting late here. Wait, did I miss it? Shucks! Must have been brill,zzzz.
  9. Jake

    GOLD

    What/How on earth a 5000 to 2500 correction would come about is beyond (my) comprehension. What would the recipe be for that in the climate we are going into? This little blip is causing enough consternation as it is, it would seem. I took Robin Griffiths for his buy 'around 1700' yesterday (1710) and picked up some silver, too. Also in the back of my mind is Venezuala's little move. Hear Jim Rickards on KWN of what that could mean if other countries join in. I don't suspect the West and the BIS will enjoy the prospect of releasing their gold to Russian, Chinese and Brazilizn banks. I dont really understand these margin call things but I do understand a good discount. ... so I'd be happy if they did a few more. I think a lot of time can be wasted fretting about a few quid and whilst it is still on the shelf, I'll be buying. I'm looking forward to hearing Bernanke's thoughts and actions. One day he might even decide to say 'oh and btw we are revaluing gold to 7000/oz. Whatever. It doesn't really alter the big picture one iota as far as I am concerned. As you say, its going to be interesting to watch this pan out over the next few months/years.
  10. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    You're starting to sound like an estate agent in disguise again, Mr Doe...or Cassius.
  11. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Lovely views. But Renzo Piano has played an unfortunate role in designing projects just at the end of the economic cycle which inspired them. Kansai Intl Airport for one. A stunning work of art and a beautiful floating white elephant of a project. What a legacy! He's like the kiss of death. Kunstler has a lot to say about these high rises. Shame about the name, too. The Shard. Surely there's enough time to plaster the thing in solar panel glass micro?
  12. Jake

    GOLD

    This is quite worrying: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=133930&sn=Detail ''A sobering thought too for physical gold holders is that any government legislation aimed at protecting the central banks and their gold holdings from a growing move to take delivery of physical could also be extended to individuals' gold holdings. Could confiscation of gold be a step nearer again?'' if other countries also decide to have their gold repatriated. Nixon pt.2 with a twist. 'sorry, we don't have your gold but can pay with our dollar treasuries-which we have aplenty' dastardly snigger... Is it true the UK has 99 tonnes of Venezuela's gold? I wonder which other countries gold we have in 'storage'?
  13. Jake

    GOLD

    1908. People are going to have a shock in the morning.
  14. Jake

    GOLD

    1898 this morning, Oct 23. Where's my little correction? Still only Tuesday, I suppose...
  15. Jake

    GOLD

    Haha! Are you asking a self exiled Brit if he considers a home a castle or a prison? Right now, in the UK, I'd say a ball and chain. So like yourself I'm happy to wait and wait and if it never happens then I shan't be too bothered as a return (to the UK) is looking less and less likely. Still a cheap, well located property might be useful for a number of reasons in the future, bought for cash profits on gold. Beats having a mortgage! I like GF's target area.
  16. Jake

    GOLD

    Fingers crossed & Good luck! Up she goes for the time being...will it reach 1900? How's that US house price graph looking now? 90 odd? You 'lucky' buggers. I wonder when UK's time will come. Mind you now grinding under 150oz so we are there behind you if not 'shoulder to shoulder'. Lol. I keep having to pinch myself and remind self 'it's far worse this time, far, far worse, so sit back and let the metal do the running' Still it leaves the throat parched and wondering when people will consider piling in, cash buying with gold/silver profits. 80? 70? 50? 40? Much talk about gold 5000 out there now. At the moment, talk, but so it was back in 2005/6/7/8 etc. All the best!
  17. Jake

    GOLD

    I'm hoping this is top buyers and we'll have a pull back by Thursday. But I'm sure of nothing. Fiat is falling so fast! Puts a new spin on 'the markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent' cash buying less and less.
  18. I wonder what JHK thinks of the Edgar Cayce etc thread and any walkable communities remaining. I recall 'the great lakes will empty into the bay of Mexico, etc...' I suppose it is hard/worthless project to try to find the perfect place covering one's ass for the Long Emergency and the rather Sudden Emergency -one which could be coming in September 25/26 according to others.
  19. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    It didn't take long from 200 to 150 did it? If the lows are taken out or close, I wonder when that will be? This rate it could be sooner than I bargained for. Do you have a time forecast, GF? Also have you updated the US HP graph? Can't see it.
  20. Jake

    SILVER

    Thanks! Will check again. Last time I heard only UK and Germany had not yet reached their 'limits'.
  21. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Gosh! I'm going to agree with JD on this. Though I would say that I don't expect a Japanese style deflation in house prices over a decade or two. I'm sure the gov would go with that given the chance. Is there time? I don't think we've all got a decade or two of playing time. So..I expect a Japanese style grind until the system/currency collapses 2014-16 or debt kills us with inflation and deflation rocking our little boats. Is this out of the question? Are not the Euro, Dollar, Pound, Yen and a load more fiats on quiksand now? Crash may come in gold/silver as price rockets for another few years. 3000-5000 gold would be just fine, I guess, (ch)av houses at 80oz each or thereabouts.(presently 160 or so). I'm sticking with gold and silver, my woodburner and water purifier, bicycle, musical instruments and geiger counter for the duration, probably.
  22. Jake

    GOLD

    I note Bannister doesn't mention where he thinks it'll fall to either. I imagine they are both right within different time frames. Sort of fib. wheel within a wheel. Yes, I feel we are within 3 of 3 too. Alf has been right a LONG time and I like his thoughts and essays. It is hard to fathom how he made them when he did...serious respect. Take your point about people not really owning gold yet. At least the big buyers. And such a small market... When they do the price could really move.
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