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Jake

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Everything posted by Jake

  1. Jake

    GOLD

    Nice to compare and contrast to Alf Fields numbers from 2003 originally, here updated: update my original "back of the envelope" template to much higher levels, as follows: Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low); Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%); Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low); Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline); Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE) Once again, you can pick your number for the gain in FIVE and multiply it by $2,500. The numbers become astronomical and can really only be possible in a runaway inflationary environment, something which many thinking people are suggesting has become a possibility as a result of the actions taken during the current crisis. I recommended reading Alf Fields a long time ago. Just google and enjoy his writings.
  2. Jake

    GOLD

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Banister/Aug112011.html ''Wave 1- 300 to 1030 Wave 2- 1030 to 681 (October 2008 lows) Wave 3- 618- 1805 currently, 34 Fibonacci month cycle. *Likely high is 1862-1900* Wave 4- Due up next… a multi month consolidation It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold. Sound familiar? --------------------------------------------- Thoughts?
  3. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-moves-to-sell-rent-92000-foreclosed-homes-2011-08-10?Link=obinsite
  4. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    What? Like 'out at 17.90' or banning Fitkid for mocking you wanting the argument in log?
  5. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Fair points and I'll take it on the chin. So, apologies. I agree that TPTB will stop at nothing to protect what is 'sacred' and we will see how it pans out for them-esp on housing and the pound. Indeed it has been proved wise to play ball with the system, especially over the last few years. I see it as being suckered into buying/speculating stocks and overpriced property with low rate teasers, affordability. Gold tells the story (reads the market) better than I though. But I will give you I feel a level of frustration of late hearing the serpent sirens wax lyrical on property. Best wishes and apologies, jake
  6. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I think you box your corner very well but 'doth protest too much' your 'open mind' and BaB, honest hodman or not, 'is wise enough to play the fool'. But I am well versed in literature rather than finance and my intuition gets me in hot water from time to time. So I may be wrong on both counts. With a sig like yours though... I am more inclined to think the the system is beat rather than you can't beat it. I have shared my anger with the looters on another thread. But they are merely picking up crumbs of what they are locked out of compared to the real looters. And when the middle classes join in the chorus of disenchantment, we will see some real anger perhaps and the 'system' will be laid bare for what it is. Your opinions btw are welcome here, I am sure, and well founded in one version of reality. But you could be right, so..an awkward bow. Dont let me stop you posting, John Doe.
  7. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Sometimes BAB...I do wonder if you are a troll. I've never really accused anyone of that before. But you and JD alight my suspicions. If you are, you are very good. Sorry if I offend.
  8. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    This isn't how it played out/is still playing out in Japan. What's this about 'improving job market'-are you talking the UK? I see more unemployment, less and less growth, inflation in food and energy, deflation or flatlining of nominal house prices, continued falls if measured in gold, etc etc. The US in particular gave Japan a lot of stick over the years in managing the 'recession' here. Actually the Japs have managed it remarkably well, so far, so much so that the Yanks and the Brits and all and sundry want to follow the ZIRP and walk the problem down over the next decade or so. That may or may not be possible. I don't know. But I think unlikely with the DEBTS on the table and being beholden to the bond vigilantes. At least the Japs owe their countrymen-and they are getting less and less thanks to Fukushima and years of deflation taking its toll on the population (lack of new members-no marriages-no real jobs). They also had loads of lolly in the kitty which has been a soft cushion. US/UK/ EU has sweet FA. I imagine the UK property scene going into a long slide anytime now. Stagflation then.
  9. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Well it started to fall off in 96, which was the signal for buying property, I guess. 2000-01 was the low.
  10. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Think I might be tempted to buy a home today with gold if I was in the US and it suited my timeline. Unfortunately I am not and it doews not. So i have to sit on my hands and see what happens.
  11. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I think if you had been paying attention in the 90's-to gold as well as property-you would be singing from a different hymnbook now. Sure we all must live somewhere but even so...have a look at the chart '95-'11. http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx'>http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx Moreover property may be soon to fall but I don't think that is on the cards for gold in the same way. The best strategy would be to have chopped and changed along the way. You'd be mortgage free now, probably.
  12. Jake

    GOLD

    Bit of a yo-yo out there!
  13. Jake

    SILVER

    Considering the last 24 hrs and silvers stubborn unwillingness to move may this be a buy? All eyes on gold it would seem. Or will both plunge? WTH. Just bought a bit more... 30 something is ok.
  14. Jake

    GOLD

    I have to say rh, that this is rather unfair on fitkid. It's like sending off one of your centre forwards when they have hit a patch of form. Fitkid is a rooney, a tevez but has a heart of gold (ho ho). it was wrong of the other guy to wind him up about the bilberries (a great thread in itself) and at least Fitkid speaks passionately about what he believes in...he may well be right about the paper profits too. A good manager/moderator would be wise to his antics/personality. Bring him back on please. Gei needs his commentry, esp over the next few days IMHO.
  15. Jake

    GOLD

    GS at 45. Silver isn't moving. Plat 1722! So far this is a gold only story. Safe haven/ panic.
  16. Jake

    GOLD

    Oh dear, there she goes...merry Christmas 1768
  17. Jake

    GOLD

    Well probably 1764 at this rate. Imagine waking up in the UK today!
  18. Jake

    GOLD

    That VAT malarkey is a bit of a bitch. Still, I tested the metal for sale in London today and got some no problem. I just hope my VAT is used for some good, free school luches or something.
  19. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Maybe you should send your lad over to GF's to read a few charts...or else he may be repeating the mistakes of his father in the future. I'm not having a dig at you here BAB, but I think you need to read the signs a bit better and ditch the 'common sense'. It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair. It was average house prices in ounces of gold, it was 2004- it was 724, it was 2011- it was 162, it was knowing when to sell, it was knowing when to buy, it was a dead simple chart as simple as a traffic light, it was red, amber, green, not even fancy trading, it was buy and hold and rent, it was a....no brainer. It was posted 2 posts above this as if by magic. It was downloaded and printed off and stuck on the bathroom wall. 'If you get this one right laddie, you'll be a man my son' Don't follow leaders, watch the parking meters.
  20. Jake

    GOLD

    "Chinese boogie woogie adjustment" ?
  21. Jake

    GOLD

    Cross that bridge when it comes, I guess.
  22. Jake

    GOLD

    Meaning nominal prices have bottomed but against a possible doubling of gold, real estate may well yet halve? This is much as I am expecting for the UK, though I'd like to see nominal prices down 15-20% too. Gold in yen is still a way off her old highs. So plenty of room for gold to rise here. Good luck!
  23. Jake

    GOLD

    Great stuff pixel. Apleasure to have those two on gei. Roll on next week.
  24. Jake

    GOLD

    Carlton, are you not tempted to trade gold for property there in the US? If not, then when ie ratio wise what are you gunning for? 50oz/home? Cheers, jake
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