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Jake

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Everything posted by Jake

  1. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    yes but I mean 4 for cash, no mortgage leverage. And you mentioned a few nights poor sleep along the way-I think. Jags are fast but shermans are safe®. Anyrate, I am in a clapped out old mini. But it is a car I was always fond of.
  2. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    BAB, I think you talk a lot of 'common sense', which is... utterly useless. You remind me of my uncle, (RIP). The average person would do very well to look into the relationship between the price of gold and houses. Where you buy on the cycle can seriously damage your wealth prospects. What would you advise your own children? Not to bother looking? Surely not. Living in a tent? WTH are you on? You only had to str and buy gold and be 4 times up. You could have bought 4 houses with your str fund. (please, check the numbers).
  3. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I think the great downsizing has already started, (even in Japan). I was reading that by 2030-50 there will be more single dwelling households than family dwelling here. Go figure But bigger houses don't 'have to' mean married to consumer junk. You could have a larger family (against the trend) or you could be an extended family (on the increase)/community of like minds etc etc. Or you might have a buisness going, or be a smallholding/farm. I am sure the smaller walkable homes thing will gain traction (esp with YOUR oil forecasts), in fact it already is/aspirations are. But life may get difficult in (parts of) the cities. Knowing what you want. This is a tricky one and a difficult act to balance. BTW can you start a thread tracking US walkable community house prices. Are they buccking the trend? I expect so. I'd also be interested in seeing some of these 100 oz US homes. Where and what are they like? I found an interesting Japan foreclosed/real estate link btw...but I wouldn't even go to Tokyo at the moment, let alone buy. But that's just me. They just felt the 6.4 quake yesterday. And I don't think that is near over. Plus radiation/contamination, food sources all from Tohoku, all contaminated. But you may see that as a buying opportunity, blood on the streets kind of thing. All the best! J. Very good info here and links. Chris Dillon is mentioned. How is he? http://www.facebook.com/RealEstateJapan
  4. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    All told, swapping gold bars for bricks, whether as investment or a place to live, hasn’t looked this attractive since the inflationary depression of 1981. US housing’s previous low came during the deflation of the Great Depression. Never mind that the average US home doubled in size inbetween, or swelled another 40% since. Because whichever flavor of depression we’ve got today, the immutable object of unchanging, unencumbered gold has once more whipped back to its pre-20th century value against the ever-changing, credit-reliant market of residential housing. It’s almost as if the “long boom” of easy credit never happened. At bottom, the average US home cost the equivalent of some 71.5 ounces of gold in 1934. Forty-six years later, it fell below 77 ounces of gold. Today’s 103-ounce price tag isn’t rock-bottom yet. But compared to the top of a decade ago, it’s getting there. There's a few points of thinking house prices in gold, dispassionate or not, I guess?
  5. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I suppose we are now just under 100oz for the US and 168oz for the UK. Cheaper than yesterday's chips. I wonder how much they'll be by Christmas?
  6. Jake

    SILVER

    Try and order! Ask them why stuff can't be delivered and they'll explain.
  7. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    'cheap as chips' This sticks in my head, Van. Do you think so? I see the graph and if I was in the US I may start viewing properties. But equally likely is 2000 USD gold. Thus houses for around 80-85 ounces. I suppose once there at 2000 you'd be persuaded to move the goalposts again and listen to 5000USD (Schiffy) or 8500USD (Robin Griffiths). So av houses around 20 ounces. Cheap as chips? Now or then? Of course gold at 8000 USD doesnt mean your dollars will still be the same value as today...but maybe they would still buy you the same house. (ie no nominal change from today). Any rate I am not in the US and wont be buying US property...but this is a useful exercise nevertheless.
  8. Jake

    SILVER

    Anybody trying to uy from CID will have run into this. Capital controls. For all other European countries, the EC has implemented limits for the sale of silver. Unless you are trying to send to the UK or Germany, each country has 'limits'. Sorry if this has been covered before.
  9. Jake

    GOLD

    http://gold.approximity.com/since1930/UK_House_Prices_in_Gold_LOG_GUESS.png I think I'm going to stick with GF's pretty picture. BTW comparing AV.US Houses/gold and AV. UK houses/gold is a real pisser. Also the 'average' UK house @168k is basically crap, probably not where you want it, blah blah blah..
  10. Jake

    GOLD

    ''Since the housing bust began, the average U.S. home has lost better than 70% of its value in gold. It’s dropped nearly 80% since the gold-market found its own floor back in the early spring of 2001.'' But not at 'rock bottom prices just yet'. This despite house sizes doubling. 71oz in 1934, 77 in 1980, and in 2011, 103oz. Definately viewing time and low offers for the US. Wish it was so for the UK. Will it ever be...? I suppose we are 73% off in gold in the UK and bugger all nominal discount. Does it look good to be buying a house now though? Mybe gold has a while to run.
  11. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Looks like BB has been right all along. Gold, trade of the decade and all that. Surely if you had lisened to him you would have quadrupled your funds, at least. 2003 gold was about 200/oz. Ok so house prices continued for a while. I still wonder if BB is right on the next trade of the decade-Japan? I suppose he is betting that Japan comes out of her K winter. Still a ways to go yet. But the lows were Nikkei 7-8000 odd. So far...I wonder if Bonner moved out of gold or is just having a punt with his profits? Somehow I doubt he has gone cold on gold.
  12. Jake

    SILVER

    I would take them back to the dealer where you bought them, if possible. You'll skip out on having to have them assayed that way. Did you keep the receipt? Good Luck! Failing that I would just keep them as paper weights/flower presses. I have a couple like that and I heard the shop where I got them has been 'washed away' in the tsunami Oh dear!
  13. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    If I was in the US I think I would be looking at one of those nice walkable community houses, maybe.
  14. Jake

    GOLD

    http://gold.approximity.com/since1971/Gold_JPY.html Why is JPY the odd currency out? Every currency I know is at all time highs but the Yen. Guess I just keep on keeping on. GF do you have a inflation adjusted chart for Gold in Yen?
  15. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    GF's graph lines... If houseprices in gold go the way of your GS ratio lines all it would take is a doubling of gold here, regardless of nominal prices. My own feeling is for a slight move down-at least-in nominal and continued move up with gold. Target of 80-120 oz for the average UK house. With gold at about GBP 1000/per oz, at least the calculation is easy!
  16. Jake

    GOLD

    ’’It could go up it could go down. It's a coin toss' The profundity of the heavenly bodies and the full moon, which is, at least, very beautiful tonight. I have listened long and hard to Larry but I have to say that, on balance, I think he talks a load of crock. But very nicely..and hedging his bets. Verdict: bit of a shill.
  17. Jake

    SILVER

    Yep, who knows? Just keep on keeping on. Nice Jim Dines interview on KWN. With targets like 200-300 for silver, surely the best policy is to just try and stay at the crease picking up the runs? Ditto gold. They seem to be taking it in turns like cyclists at the tour de france. At these prices platinum even looks interesting. Bloody distractions...
  18. Jake

    GOLD

    Hey GF, Do you have an inflation adjusted chart for gold in JPY on approximity? Thanks! Jake. Just found this snippet Yen gold is likely to rise above its nominal high of 200,000 yen seen over 31 years ago on January 18th, 1980. In the longer term, the inflation adjusted high of over ¥500,000/oz is quite possible given Japan’s dreadful fiscal and monetary position. From here, http://www.resourceinvestor.com/news/2011/5/pages/japan-economy-contracts--gold-in-yen-consolidates-.aspx more tidbits here, Most Wall Street and City of London analysts have completely underestimated the risk posed by the Japanese natural disasters and deepening nuclear crisis. Thus, the risk of a return to recession and even depression in Japan is completely underestimated. Japan, like most of the western world, is massively indebted with Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio projected to top 200% this year, the heaviest in the industrialized world. Greek’s debt load is set to rise to 160% of GDP growth next year which is close to the levels seen in Zimbabwe which recently experienced hyperinflation. Complacent analysts reassure that unlike Greece and Zimbabwe, much of Japan’s debt is held by domestic savers and the belief is that they are unlikely to sell their yen paper assets. This assumption is highly questionable as in the event of inflation deepening and the yen continuing to fall on international markets, Japanese savers are likely to diversify out of yen denominated bonds and cash. Massive public debt in Japan, in conjunction with very poor demographics and a shrinking population mean that Japan is increasingly vulnerable to a sovereign debt and or currency crisis. The “past performance” of Japan’s deflation of recent years may not be indicative of future performance. The current and continuing response of the Japanese authorities is the printing of trillions and trillions of more yen and further fiscal and monetary profligacy. Thus, Japan looks likely to be entering a period of much higher inflation. This creates the real risk of virulent stagflation and even of hyperinflation in the coming years. Say a prayer for me!
  19. Jake

    GOLD

    Hey GF, Do you have an inflation adjusted chart for gold in JPY on approximity? Thanks! Jake.
  20. Jake

    GOLD

    Buggers used to be little over 200 a few years ago. Damn deflation! Or whatever you call it.
  21. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    It's a difference really in philosophy/culture/morality isn't it? Eastern cultures have Confucianism and the Tao as the 'way'. The West has Christian philosophy which is by and large dead or by now disbelieved in by the great many. Maybe the West has come to the end of the road not only financially but also morally and culturally. I can't see Britain doing a 'Hong Kong' or Japan/Korea. As JD said we tried it once in Dickens' day. Wouldn't you say it is a little short sighted to stereotype all behaviour or single parent's kids as potential scum and drug dealers? There are plenty of rich lawyers/bankers still enjoying after dinner cocaine, happy with the status quo. Less so in HK, I'd dare say. This is a reflection of the underlying morality/philosophy which keeps society on the straight and narrow...But straight and narrow it is and lacking in creativity or independence perhaps. HK shouldn't be compared to Kilmarnock IMHO. Let's see if you'd prefer to live in London or HK-more of a useful contrast. Better still ask a Hong Kong born Chinese. I am sure with a bit of digging you could find an underclass of sweatshop workers in HK with zero chance ever of owning their own place etc...in fact only forever will they be rental slaves locked into a society by a morality/philosophy which will keep them in their station for their whole lives, without much chance of upward social mobility. Is the goal of life simply financial rewards for being a hard working goody goody?
  22. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Thanks for that CS. So you would buy gold over the summer, averaging in, I suppose? Looking to hold until when? 2015? Then use gold to buy property? The property crash against gold prices must be around 70+% now. I'm wondering if it would not be opportune to buy property (for those in the UK) now with gold before prices retreat? But you think this will only be temporary. Ummm...Why do you think no NOMINAL crash?
  23. Jake

    SILVER

    There seems to be a lot of fuss about silvers fall of 30% wiping out a month or so of gains. Big deal. I missed the opportunity to play the G/S ratio after watching it like a hawk come to a kilo to an ounce and was too slow to respond. (well done GF btw-great guns). I didn't make the same mistake in helping myself to handfuls more though despite higher premiums for silver and gold (physical). But credit to people like Richard Russell/David Morgan and others on KWN/ZH for their knowledge from years past about this bull market. A learning experience. Is it over for silver? Who knows? I'd welcome some more downside tbh. Nothing has changed really except I've got a little more. Sure it could have been a lot more if I had played my cards right. But no worries. If it goes down again, I'll pick up some more till the game changes significantly. Hats off to you though, GF. You played a perfect hand. AND had a holiday. Bugger!
  24. Jake

    SILVER

    So you'll pass on the kimchee with becq sauce? Kim Yu Na.
  25. Jake

    SILVER

    'Out at 17.90' (just pulling your leg)No doubt mine will be pulled, too. Nice to see you back btw. Not missing your kimchee with becquerrels, then? I could send you some?
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