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Jake

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Everything posted by Jake

  1. Planned Nuclear Power Stations for Asia by 2020. Better give James Dines a call. (I'd rather drive cars than have nuclear power like this) (but I see the problems with that statement)
  2. Did you miss the low in US property? I would say 'No', not the low. Property has much further to fall...but when? Not till we see the markets all crashing again. How dense is 'dense'? I think only the larger metropolises are dense enough to keep their shops. Do any of these places you are considering have subways or good overland light rail with a large enough population to be supported by agriculture nearby? This is a problem, it seems to me. Investment in both areas? Yes, very nice. I think there is a strong argument to support local business-whether they make it or not is their (and everyone elses) business. Community support is important if there is to be a community... Smaller population trendings are prevalent in many countries now. Just not enough to offset the rise in other countries...a bit like Japan's recent export/import figures. Smaller population countries are leading the way, if you ask me. Less mouths to feed, homes to heat etc... China is planning 50 Nuclear power stations. God help us!
  3. BTW I just worked out I run my 2 cars on 6500 USD per year total which includes everything-gas-oil-tax-insurance-capital costs (old cars bought 2nd hand)-tyres-oil. That is low figure because I get a gas subsidy for some of my jobs. On another front 2 cellphone/2 internet/other phone lines costs total 3000 USD per year. I'd sure like to lose the cellphone out of my life. I am aware that my costs are far less than most families who have one phone/member. Horror stories of bills of 700 USD/month for those with large families all with cellphone.
  4. Lots of interesting themes in your thoughtful response. Do you really think a bottom is in for US property? I would say a temporary bottom was in last year and you have missed that. Seems there is a lot of talk about a bottom. A lot of wishful thinking at the moment. Whether that is the end of property falls, I don't know. Same goes for he stock maket. Gold has been on the back foot and property/gold, dow/gold has been affected a little. So sentiment plays a pa in all of that. However the wishful thinking is based on what? Money printing. I dont see the economy really getting better yet. In fact I can see it getting a lot worse first, before it gets better. 'Temporary respite' would be where I pigeon hole it. Of course walkable urban areas will hold up bettter than suburbs. That is and will be an ongoing theme. (I am no defender of the suburbs). Japan has seen this ongoing movement to the cities for employment and the countryside has died. Unfortunately the people, or many of them are amassed in the japanese suburbs-their sole grace being good transport links into the centers of employment and entertainment. The big cities are well too expensive for families/family style living arrangement (houses) for all those who have not inherited a family plot etc. Many have been bought out handsomely. So you move to the US, buy a few BTL's in walkable urbanhoods, hope they appreciate in a property bull market? Is that how you live 'rent free'? Shopping will die in all but the larger walkable neighborhoods, like HK or parts of London, NY, or wherever. I think the small walkable neighborhoods will have a few specialist gift shop type places, maybe a community deli and nice coffee shop and veg shop a local butcher who prides on selling local organic type fare and can guarantee support form the locals. In the UK this is getting harder and harder. But I note here in Japan there are quite a few start up bakeries. Many are switching off from the supermarkets as they understand more about where the food comes from/where it is processed. But rents are still too high for many to make a go of it. Who wants to become a butcher and take on the supermarkets? Not many. But maybe those skills will be useful in the future. '' My fear is that not enough food will get into the city at times, or what shows up at the walkable stores will become very limited and expensive. This risk deserves more discussion, if you want to "go there" and talk more about it.'' This is key, IMHO. I'm interested to hear how you square that with the walkable/urban thing. As I see it the time for walkable/urban communities was from the 1970's on...when everyone was leaving for the suburbs. Now is not the time for that living arrangement as it could be dangerous. Coming back to the cities because there isn't enough cheap oil is a mistake to my mind. Safety in numbers? I don't think so. Better, like Kunstler, is be within reach of the market, yet still tend a few acres outside of the madding crowd. I do like your idea about rising oil being the saviour of the locale but I think that will be after any collapse rather than before. The supermarkets will take it to the end, and without competition the consumers will be forced to eat it...just as they are now. I personally go out of my way to support small shopkeepers (and pay for the privilege) but it is worth it in humane/community terms. Yes my 'tax the childless' was part tongue in cheek. World population could be smaller! However there is great unbalance. Japan, again, is at the forefront of that. Maybe that is good in the long run, a smaller population in a time of dwindling resources.
  5. Have you, in your 8000 equation, considered that such savings 'paying off the mortgage' or 'saving a lumpsum' or 'paying the extra for more expensive accommodation' etc, can only be realized if you don't need travel to any place that requires coughing up for travel? You also assume that one could earn ones income by being 'self employed' by not using a vehicle. You also limit yourself to a small radius, which may well be possible, but in your own case is not. Singapore, USA, East Europe, London, South Africa etc...I dare say your jet fuel + metro/subway/overland/underground/bus pass is a tad over 8000, no? Maybe it is. I dont know. But wouldnt be the same for everyone's circumstances. We can't all be self employed traders. I will presume that you would be infinitely bored to death in a walkable community in North Carolina or somewhere provincial-accustomed as you are to living in some of the greatest cities of the world. When you need a fix of New York or SF or London, HK or Capetown you'd be running down that saving 8000 dollars line rather quickly. I'm all for a live and let live approach. I have no doubts that gasoline will become more expensive and we will see the demise of the suburbs, US style. I'm sure we will see less driving too. I think that has already started. But I also fear for walkable, urban environments. Just out of town supermarkets have murdered walkable communities. Tseco in the UK has destroyed the deli, the off license, the butcher etc etc. Towns and the retail which makes them are dying. We are held ransom to modernity. We are forced to make savings as 'every fucking little counts'. If you really explore those streets in walkable neighborhoods you will smell the decay. But you dont because it is all academic to you and the urban planners. Yes it SHOULD be like Busytown or Trumpton, but it ain't. As your own folk will tell you 'Main Street is dying and Wall street is winning'. Now how does one's 'self employed' status fit into to that paradigm? Are you adding any value to the community? Or just doing as you please? You want to play in Wall Street and live on the remains of Main Street? Maybe a better idea of taxing the drivers (even more) would be to tax people without children? Or rather give generous tax benefits to those who have more children (those not on benefits).
  6. It seems I hit a nerve and apologize for that. I have no knowledge of what you did in your former job. I had to re read my own post to see what I had said to get such a response, and on re-reading it did look like a personal attack, which it was not meant to be-not at you in particular at any rate. (It is good to hear an American use the word 'shite' with conviction though ). I think to castigate all car users as people wo don't 'get it' as rather short sighted however. Kunstler himself uses the header 'The Tragic Comedy of...' and I think that is about right. Cheap oil is responsible for a great many things we all take for granted. I think simply moving into an urban walkable neighborhood will not solve all of these problems...in fact those neighborhoods may have some trouble of their own. Kunstler often mentions the city as a place not to be. You both have no children and thus are spared the hassle of decent surroundings and schools/education...a factor which keeps many out of urban neighborhoods...in fact one of the reasons which drove them out. I abhor the idea of ONLY thinking about areas near mass transit stations fit for apartment dwellers, yet see it's a good idea for developers to make another quick buck at the expense of those further afield. Lots more to say but am pushed for time so leave it there. I think we need a more comprehensive solution which thinks about all parties rather than those fortunate enough to do as they please before moving onto the next moneymaking wheeze.
  7. But it's ok to trade Oil, yes? Or how much of your money/life have you made at the expense of drivers? Maybe it is ok to get rich on the back of 'dumb' drivers/society at large, yet you don't want to 'subsidize' the roads (that carry your food). And yet... you jet around the world in planes. Do they not run on oil, too? I find it all rather hypocritical, I have to say. What about a massive tax on speculators who garner vast profits at others' expense? Sure, I see your point re cars. We can't just get rid of them immediately and neither can the whole world live in a walkable/urban fantasy with cafes/delis and theatres for entertainment. How about resusicating the societal collapse thread? I'd say Kunstler has it DEAD right. Tell others to live in the walkable community bit, and build oneself a sustainable, semi self sufficient place in the country-far from the madding crowd.
  8. Jake

    GOLD

    1615! Buying opportunity coming up?
  9. The Year of the Snake is forecast to be challenging for Hong Kong after the city drew number 95, one of the most inauspicious fortune-telling sticks, at a temple ceremony on Monday. The stick warns Hong Kong residents to beware of siu yan - a Confucian term for inferior or bad people - during the Year of the Snake, Oriental Daily News says. According to South China Morning Post, Hong Kong last drew unlucky sticks in 2009, year of the global financial crisis, and in 2003, when severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) killed hundreds in the city.
  10. Thanks for the interview with Ian Gordon. Would be nice to catch up with Prechter's thoughts and also Nick Laird of Sharelynx again, too. Dominic, could you post a chart of the Hui from 1999 together with the Homestake. It was interesting you said that 'we have already had the move up in goldstocks' and to hear IG's response; unrepentant bearish thoughts that this is the death of paper we are seeing. I would have liked to hear a response to the idea that we are now in the beginning stages of K Spring or at least the end of K winter- and a response on how that is or is not possible. I guess Gordon would advise not to be disorientated by signs of a false spring brought about by copious money printing GLOBALLY. Yet this winter is 13 years old not 3 years (like 1929-33) and stocks are moving to the old highs in some markets. To hear Nick Laird on this might be very interesting. He suggested last interview that you dont want the gold shares till the bottom, what you need now is the physical alone. It might be good to see Gordons circular chart of the 4 seasons too. Good interview as always though.
  11. Right. It's a very good line. But Kunstler now lives in deep country with a pickup truck and 5 acres, fruit trees and welly boots and the deeds to his house. Not for him the dreams of the new urbanists, or walkable communities etc...(depending on how far you are prepared walk). I like the way he is using gasoline to transform his home and garden into something for the future. But making cheap shots at the car owners is a bit lame when he himself is one..and maybe dependant upon one as he grows older and less mobile. I'll bet you he is the type to drive until he can no longer! It is also fine to suggest moving back into the cities and getting it all going, dewey eyed like, with mixed property/commercial la la land and then moving away into the countryside yourself! I bet JHK would laugh along with that in a self reflective way... full of Kunstler-esque wisdom and humor. In the meantime... cars are selling like hot cakes.
  12. That's a fine looking roof! And a witty article on the Leaf. I'm sure the solar and the Leaf/electric cars will play a part in the transition stage ( ie for 30-50 years or so).
  13. Well, they should sell the Nissan Leaf, for example, as a 'set' with enough solar panels for your garage/house to charge it. That way we save on using coal and its electric other than for the cost of the car and the panels plus installation.
  14. Jake

    GOLD

    (it's been a long day)
  15. Jake

    GOLD

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...d-asia-21055206 Funny old world. At first I thought this looked like a duck. But then I realized that if you lay it on its flat edge it looks just like the inflation adjusted gold chart from the late 70's to present day.
  16. Jake

    GOLD

    I think I did mean that. But it could also go 'Buy Calm and Keep Gold' or how about, Calmly Carry On Buying Gold or Keep Buying Gold and Calmly Carry On. The latter would be my favorite and closest to the original of 'Keep Calm and Carry On'. For international travellers you could have 'Dont Leave Gold in your Carry -On'. This could run and run.
  17. Jake

    GOLD

    I think you have that the wrong way around.
  18. Jake

    GOLD

    Good read. And you might like this. http://kingworldnews..._Explosion.html And also, (in Yen) It is one of the only currencies that has not yet seen gold overcome its highs of 1980. But not for much longer? http://gold.tanaka.co.jp/commodity/souba/english/index.php Price information(As of at 16:00 on 01/11/2013) GOLD PLATINUM SILVER Our retail selling price(tax included) 5,067 yen 4,999 yen 95.76 yen (Change from previous price) +109 yen +166 yen +2.52 yen Our retail buying price(tax included) 4,984 yen 4,874 yen 91.77 yen (Change from previous price) +109 yen +166 yen +2.52 yen Prices for gold and platinum above are per gram of a one-kilo bar. Prices for silver are per gram of a 30 kg-bar. Coin names Size Our retail selling price, tax included Our retail buying price, tax included (with a premium) Our retail buying price, tax included (without a premium) Vienna Philharmonic Gold Maple Leaf 1 OZ 1/2 OZ 1/4 OZ 1/10 OZ 170,609 yen 86,929 yen 44,972 yen 18,415 yen 156,287 yen 79,632 yen 39,933 yen 16,182 yen 148,865 yen 74,432 yen 36,640 yen 14,579 yen Nice to see gold punch through the 5000 yen/gram. With Yen weakening hereon, I wonder when gold will double in Yen?
  19. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I know. Houses and land there sooooooooo cheap. Wish it was the UK. WTF went wrong there?????
  20. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Oops! It looks like the listing "714 northeast dr davidson nc 28036" is no longer available! See what else is available or ask your friends and neighbors. Read more: http://realestate.oodle.com/charlotte-nc/#ixzz2H1dPm0g2 Looks like you missed it.
  21. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    SF-push up further north? Oregon? Then east, inland? I have no idea of what its like up there. What about Vancouver? Very popular with the Pacific Rim Asians, British and...Ian Gordon. I think Vancouver is your place, Dr. B. Hang the taxes
  22. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I think that neat formula will not last, either. But while it does, they are welcome to it. Maybe a crashing, rioting London will have them scurrying away again with losses. Some parts of the US will, I am sure, offer things the UK cannot. Warm weather, a bit of heating oil, plenty of gas, nice wines, plenty of land. But it will always be a long way from Europe for Europeans. Will not America simply be seen to be too dangerous?? Too many religious nutcases, too much racial hatred, too many hicks? I know...there are very good people too, and other countries have their share of troubles, but the US is in another league...at least it seems so from the outside.
  23. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    London may not look quite cheap (except in foreign currency it has become cheaper) but London is a whole load of things that other cities are not. It is the English capital of the world retaining all the cultural and historical nuances that make the world love it. Tradition, Pomp, Radicalism, Radio 4. It is in Europe, connected to Paris in 3 hours. Foreigners will feel more comfortable in London having studied and learned our language, compared to the few who can speak German or Spanish or Italian. Everyone learns English. It is the common denominator. Everyone has been there and enjoyed it. Australia is too far away from the rest of the world, too many snakes or spiders, cancerous sunshine. America too dangerous, too many guns and idiots. Canada too cold, too full of nothing. Singapore too hot and sweaty, Hong Kong too Chinese for comfort etcetc..London is beautiful, the music/arts scene are strong, ones kids can pick up the lingo quickly, even the food is getting better. It is still a prettygood financial centre as centers go. Fancy taking the fmily to Shanghai? Er..no ta. If I am super rich what do I care if house prices aren't 'cheap'. These things are irrelevant to the rich. Especially to wives of the rich. They want to be free-or at least have more freedom than they have anyplace else. I know London isnt perfect but its a damn sight better than Moscow or Lagos, Luala Lumpur or Athens, Delhi or Tokyo.
  24. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I said, though it wasn't clear, ''Japan has had'' not ''has''. This was 2 years ago and savings were just under 20% of income. The Japanese had a hardcore savings mentality. Nowadays the svaings rate has plummeted. The British had a spending mentality. Why bother 'save' when house price inflation did the job for you? Now the British are trying to pay down their debts like crazy. '3 years' any data?...no I'm afraid I haven't. Just my gut feeling. You might like to have a look at real prices rather than nominal. Shrelnyx has some great charts. http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/UKHousePrices01.php Click on an area an see the damage to UK house prices, including areas within London, in gold. I think gold could still be a very good place to wait for house prices to fall further, rather than nominal GBP.
  25. Jake

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I don't think the UK has the luxury, or cushion, Japan has had with all her savings. So I don't see the UK being able to " pull the same tricks for decades". How long can QE continue to make a difference? What happens when QE comes to a halt? This is when I expect London house prices to unwind, and with it the UK as a whole. When? Probably within 3 years. It's a timebomb.
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