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Posts posted by Jake

  1. Van- I like you A LOT. But I would implore you to read around Gails site some. The cure for low price HAS BEEN low prices. Basic economics 101. But the future may not look like the past for reasons she well expounds.

    I haven't heard any $10 oil analysts. But I am neither an expert. You may be right re the next bull market. You have been right so many other occaisions. I read your posts with great interest and hope. Dr Bubbs, too. But I do think you both need a wider reading. Not just the short term. Tverberg is a good place to start, IMHO. There are some very thought provoking posts there. Plus she doesn't have an agenda to push or pay for. I would relish a rebuttal but so far there is little of substance. Only rear view mirror stuff.

  2. Commodities-food based-must be good, if/when we catch inflation...or even if we don't, perhaps. I'm a bit reluctant to see other commodities doing well if the premise is "because they have done before". I'm also reluctant to say "it's different this time", but it sure as hell doesn't feel like 1990 or 2002 or even 2009. What could change that?


    War could change that feeling towards commodities however. Another couple of years perhaps. China with their islands, ME, Russia and her gas to Europe, N Korea going apeshit. Japan changing her constitution.

    In the meantime it seems everyone's wages are going down. Good jobs are harder to find. Many many unemployed. Oil/energy is too cheap for producers to stay in business. Banks have big money with them. It goes on. World pop is going up, but demand is down. Maybe there are limits to growth you aren't seeing. There's a lot of uncertainty, for sure.

  3. So the interviewer should ask him what he left out of his perfect biblical cycles in 2014 and'15 before salivating over the "dates" for the next big kahuna. That's the kind if info which would be useful. Don't get me wrong though, I like the basic thesis, just not the zeal.

    Jeff Christian, much hated by the gold community, has a better record and no subscription. Not that he goes in for cycles prediction or, if he does, he doesn't harp on about them.

  4. So. The bible got it wrong in 2014, 2015. Will it be third time lucky in 2016. Or a case of "thrice thy denied me". I dunno. He doesn't really explain anything and the exuberance of the interviewer doesn't exactly fit in with Jesus' teachings.

    Also how can uk housing crash, bottom and then be a buying opportunity between now and June/July? Uk housing is like a HGV to slow down and reverse.

    The guy reminds me of Dent in that they are married to their theories. But their game is all about subscriptions. A guy like Van is a far safer pair of hands if you ask me.


    I like what Boloney has to say but I think he needs to chalk up a few points on the old IQ unless he is talking to the converted religios out there.

  5. Dr Bubb, what do you make of Kunstlers comments re skyscrapers in the other podcast you posted? Do you think they will be uninhabitable in the future? His argument seems to be that the future economic environment will render it impossible to renovate skyscrapers let alone be able to service them with air conditioners and elevators. My own thinking is that if the future is not like the present or recent past, then they will slip into tenements like we had/ have in London. Of course this is one for the future- and there is no telling what the rest of the immediate geography will be like on the ground- but I think that a plot of land away from the cities and as kunstler suggests has a meaningful relationship to near by agricultural food productive centers would be a wise hedge.

    Now might be a very unwise time to buy into the myth that living in skyscrapers is the way to go. Having said that, while Japan's population shrinks, Tokyo is slightly growing because the economies in cities are still working and providing employment, automobile less, semi walkable environments and entertainment-While this may continue. I feel we are like moths, being drawn blindly to the brightness of the lights and modern conveniences, which are simply modern myths and traps laid thus to ensnare us.

    You're always welcome here if you fancy helping with the rice harvest and cooking on the charcoal brazier, fishing and taking a dip in the rivers...