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John Doe

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About John Doe

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    Tri-Millennium Guru

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  1. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    There's an interesting response to that article on HPC. Reply No.11 (Drewster) http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/newsblog/2013/04/blog-not-sustainable-39211.php
  2. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Might actually happen, if pensioners ever stop voting
  3. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Hi Bab, After you have made a post, then there is an edit button that appears on the bottom right of the post (next to the report, multiquote and quote buttons) which you can use for an hour or so. (PS, the edit and the report links both look greyed out until you put the mouse over them)
  4. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Calm down Dr B, no-one can be right all the time
  5. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I guess I've always worried that because it's such a small market (relatively) that it's potentially open to manipulation by bigger forces/powers. But as you imply, there is more to it than that and in many parts it's seen as the safest hedge of all (and will remain that way). If you ever find that crystal ball, please let me have a gander
  6. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Sorry zoomraker, but I really don't know much about gold or PMs (apart from it being an historical store of wealth etc) and I've never really followed the gold threads etc. That said, it looked like a good deal back in 2003/4 (Credit where it's due to Dr B and others for getting in early on that one), but I was always happier with stocks and the housing market as I knew a little about them and practically nothing really about Gold etc (hence I've never commented on any of the gold threads). I bought a few sov's etc back in 2005, but for fun really, nothing serious. Got some silver last xmas, and have been looking at possibly getting some more sovs & silver soon (but again, no great amount). I still can't believe that they printed money! And everyone just accepted it, as if it were the most normal thing !
  7. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Oh come on, really. You were constantly going on about crash cruise speed etc for years, and all the time BDEV, your Bellwether, continued to rise (try overlaying BDEV with Land reg figures). Only recently have you suggested a bottom might be in (for now). As for my “system”, it’s based on watching the market over decades, living in many parts of the UK and knowing people from all walks of life (with whom I still have regular contact), reading books from authors like Pretcher, Boner and Harrison etc, and then, when they began to appear about 2004, taking in all the views on sites like this and HPC, learning how the PTB work to keep the system going at any cost (and the lengths they go to), and I also watch how most of the country are doing, and don't just concentrate on the poor sods who are being hammered by this crisis (as the perma-bears always do), and then I make up my own mind from the information I’ve assembled from all these sources. TBH, it’s served me very well thank you, as my historical posts here clearly show. From my concerns it was all a big ponzy from way back before HPC (my posts started here from ~2006 and explained, long before the 2007 downturn, how I'd been thinking it had all been crazy since 2002-3) to my STR’ing in late 2007, and buying back in the dip of 2009 when it was clear that QE, here and abroad, along with other government interventions, was going to stabilise things and the financial collapse we were concerned about was averted and unlikely to happen for at least another 20 years or more (when they forget how close they came this time). They printed money FFS! (I still can't believe they did this) Since then, I’ve put the more balanced case here, and been slated for it many times. However, here we are. Anyway, the past is gone and it's the future that matters. So, if rates rise significantly in the next couple years (unlikely) then that could conceivably result in a new correction. If not, and we don’t have another boom in the meantime, then the excesses could well be worked off by the time rates start to go up.
  8. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    It’s not really a matter of who was right, although you were certainly wrong on this one . Not really. We were all talking about the UK as a whole (as the indices pointed out). Everyone knew that certain parts of London were different and these had seen their nominal low in 2009 (perhaps except for a few diehards that repeatedly kept trying to say London was falling and it would all collapse). Indeed, going further, we, (the one or two less bearish), often pointed out that good houses in good areas were easily outperforming not-so-nice properties in less affluent areas, and regularly pointed out that there isn’t single market in the country, just many smaller ones. However, taking the country as a whole, it is no surprise at all to see nominal prices essentially flat over the last year or two, and unlikely to fall much further, if at all in the coming few years.
  9. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Some of us aren't suprised at all. For the last couple of years, you all were bangining on about crash cruise speed etc, while one or two of us predicted the nominal low would be in 2012, and that was nearly two years back, when it was clear that the peculiarities of the UK and their affair with housing, and the PTB requirement to stop them falling to far, became obvious. We were slammed (often very rudely) for having such outrageous views. Yet, here we are. As we said many times, never underestimate the lengths the PTB will go to keep house prices high. The banks would collapse otherwise. (They think that would be bad).
  10. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    ^ Hmmmmm. Do I detect a bear turning bullish? No more crash cruise speed? (Then again, it is April 1st )
  11. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Not exactly a fair comparison. Asking prices in London, Vs approved mortgages for whole UK
  12. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Interesting read... http://www.telegraph...ing-market.html Are the mainstreram press finally catching up?
  13. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    If, for example, they were about to announce a massive home building program, then they'd need to stimulate to stop the inevitable falls of existing stock. The bank system can't afford a further drop of more than 5 or maybe 10% (assuming they'll have to mark to market again one day ) In my happy little dream, this is what they will do. More houses, more affordable, more people being able to spend their money in the real economy, instead of via interest to the banks. Ah happy thoughts
  14. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    House builders love this budget. Calling it a game changer.
  15. John Doe

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Yep. Another budget to help the house builders.
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