John Doe

Ah but don't these levels include bank bailouts etc as well (which is a much greater percentage of UK GDP than in the US etc and as they are generally considered to be safe (i.e. the money will be recovered in the future) they are not included in the “official” debt figures. Looking for example at UK debt measured in the traditional sense (public sector net debt), it is ~62% of GDP. (Yes I know that doesn’t include pension liabilities and PFI etc, but all the countries do this) So comparing like with like, the UK doesn't seem in such a bad situation at all. Although the deficit is larger than many at present and this is what is being addressed. http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/uk-economy/uk-national-debt/ I think overall the bottom line is that we are all essentially bankrupt, so only inflation, default or debt jubilees will sort out the mess one day.

Actually the process has started here. Haven't you seen the 80% funding cut for students (as just 1 example), or the local councils budgets that have been cut, or the services being cut, or the councils that are sacking all their staff and taking them back on again with a pay cut, or the army loosing 18,000 soldiers? I would say we were actually far further along the road than the US. Far from cutting their debt, they are about to raise their "ceiling" again. It's also very different from the US as their debt has an average renewal time of 4 years. In the UK, it's 14 years. Big difference.

Don't write them off just yet, they seem to be (slowly) learning from their past mistakes (well some of them) and are now looking to shoulder less risk. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Barratt-Developments-agrees-tele-3399071442.html?x=0

There is a fair bit on this Radio 4 Money Box about the new schemes from house builders and government which will mean FTB's will only need 5% deposit. Like many of these, they will probably only help a limited number of potential buyers. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b012jbpd Ray Bulger (mortgage broker) seems to think mortgage lending is loosening up and that the 95% LTV offered by a couple of minnow lenders might actually cause some of the bigger players to loosen a bit in order to meet targets this year. (Although, that sort of smacks of limited demand if they have to do that to attract customers?) More interestingly though, is HPC's & GEI's very own Financial Planner frothing at the mouth again, even though what he says makes sense. He really doesn't help the case by sounding like he is going to explode, then again, you don't forget him and if it gets the message across.

Your reasoning is sound and I’m sure some of the numbers are down to this, but I personally know of several people that used to put their house up now and again to see if they got a "tempting offer". I have even done it once myself in the past (and sold that time actually ). However, this practice stopped dead once hips came in, and since its gone, it would be reasonable to assume that it has made a comeback. As for your ex's sellers puling out, it is just as likely that they didn't want to say that they were just testing the market and that really they had been wasting her time (and possibly messing with her emotions). One of the reasons I sold mine was that the buyer had fell in love with the place. The other reason was that they offered way more than I had expected :lol: This is happening in some places, but overall time on market has been reducing (i.e. the Home.co.uk report)

You might be surprised to find that not everyone agrees. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/8638604/Questor-share-tip-Barratts-margin-plan-is-built-on-strong-foundations.html Questor is tipping them as a buy! (Although, to be fair that’s no great endorsement )

A mortgage broker friend says they are still using all sorts of tricks. Yes, the decent family homes are still far cheaper to rent than buy. I guess that's more to do with desirability and flight to quality. Weird really. The best yields still seem to be relatively cheap terraced/semi 2 beds. Still playing devil's advocate here, but a new boiler is less than £1k and these things can all be insured now. New builds even have a 10 year warrantee in the UK (NHBC). However, as rents rise (while the mortgage stays fixed) yields increase with time. If it's a repayment mortgage, who cares about the house price? At the end of the mortgage, you have a fully paid for house. You can then rent that out, or move in, or sell it. Not sure what you mean by this, but if related to a possible financial collapse, it's just as likely to end with a debt jubilee as compulsory acquisitions. That's right, and again, I'm not condoning BTL or advising people to do it, just trying to get across this mentality in the UK which I believe will continue to give support to prices (and that's not saying they will not fall further, just not as far and fast as some expect).

Maybe, but then again, if you know how to play the game, then you can buy as if it is your main abode on a great rate (i.e. Nationwide 5 year fix ~3.89% with £500 fee), then rent out for >1% more, (which doesn't even kick in for 6 months), so still less than 5% for 5years with small fee. Any way you cut it, you can get good deals if you know how. Then if you research your target area well, you'll get a >6% yield without too much trouble. For those that rush in just anywhere, you are correct and they will loose, more fool them. For those that research well, there is a potential gain to be made.

Really? IF it comes (while possible, it is still unlikely) I would have thought, from many of the posts I’ve been reading recently, that we would be more concerned with eating than worrying about house prices?

Maybe not, but you do in a lot of places. As for the falls, most likely nominal won't fall much further and in 10 years prices are more than likely to be higher. (Baring total financial collapse, of course, in which case house prices will be the last of our problems) I’m not advocating it, but rather trying to point out that many will (and indeed do) think it’s not that bad a deal, especially with rents still rising, the lowest rates in history and inflation beckoning (no, not wage, but everything else, including rents).

Like it or not, (I don't) more people are renting and rents are still rising. That will only lead to more BTL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14135553 And it's not just the VI's I mean, seriously, with a yield of >6% and a fixed rate 10 year mortgage of less than 5% (with inflation expected over the period) it's not rocket science to think that BTL'ers will increase, is it?

Indeed, another factor I pointed out previously as part of my view, when others were saying rates were (and would) rise. I also see they are still falling. Might be able to get an even better 10 year fix soon (5 year fixes at 3.89% now).

But you did for many months before that, and it didn't happen did it (yet). We will see what happens from now.

Except in Scotland that is TBH, I think they are flat at best compared to this time last year up here. I like the Home reports, they are usually quite honest.

Nice call. BDEV down 5% as we speak!

Hmm, so I'm sure you have to agree now that it's not exactly "crash cruise speed" is it?

Sorry, I should have explained the agents/solicitors were the ones who invited several potential buyers around at the same (or very near same) time -without telling any of them it was a block viewing - so that the "competition" for the property would ensue, whereas it was the sellers that were also asking their friends around at the same time (and asking them to make positive comments) to increase the numbers. It was hilarious going to see “do-em-upers” with all the “wanabe pwoperdy-developers” tapping walls, measuring rooms and all getting in each others way This was the crazy time when they were going for 40-50 and even 60% over the offers-over. This is also happening in the major estate agents here. Cheaper properties in the agents window have a big "5% deposit paid" sticker on them.

Moi? I don't know what you mean But really, I think the housing issue is one reason they are not falling faster, nothing else. I am (and always have been) bearish, just not doomsday bearish and think we could see the nominal bottom this winter/ early spring. If you can get a place now with a good discount, then that might actually be near to where they nominally bottom out. That's nothing new, it's been going on for years. We know several people that were doing this back in 2003 in the W.End Glasgow, and it was a buying frenzy back then. They even got friends to all come around during the old "block viewings" when several potential buyers would be shown around at the same time! (Jees, I hated those type of group viewings and out of principle would - at the top of my voice - tut and complain and then tell the agent it was bad practice to treat potential buyers this way, then walk out. Even had a couple of other do the same and follow me out on one or two occasions). AFAIR, all I have ever said about cash buyers is that they account for about half the market now, and I asked if that was historically the case?

When the last bull.....

Looks like the bottom may be close

Unbelievable! Is he really serious?

Has it ever been fair? Really?

Why not hedge.... Rent the flat out and then rent a slightly bigger place using the rent from the flat, even if you have to add a little to get a bigger place. You will still have the safety net, and can live in a bigger place for a very small** (if any) outlay. You could even buy a place using the rent you get from the flat to pay (towards) you mortgage.. ** if your flat is in a fantastic area and you're happy to live in a cheaper area, the rent from the flat could cover all the cost of the new place.

Trouble in paradise Dr B? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14000584

BDEV back up there again.