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lyb

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About lyb

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    Centurion
  1. lyb

    SILVER

    Once again, wrong !
  2. lyb

    SILVER

    Another drop for the gold silver ratio appears to be imminent
  3. lyb

    SILVER

    I expect the silver induced rally in precious metals to continue (similar to April-May 2006) with break of resistances at 1280, 17.70 . Gold/silver ratio below 72 but too early for upward correction in my opinion.
  4. lyb

    SILVER

    Very interesting model. You have certainly put a lot of thought and effort.
  5. lyb

    SILVER

    Gold has exceeded the 1980 high (800) long time ago. But silver is 1/3 of the 1980 high (50). Silver is at a bargain price. If one looks at the 10 year chart, although there will be opportunities to swap silver for gold, the strategy is risky, while the gold/silver ratio is still high. How would someone know when to swap ?
  6. lyb

    SILVER

    I expected this break out since gold exceeded the 1180$ October high some time ago, while silver was still lagging behind its own 16.40 high. This 4 year decline has been brutal for investors.
  7. lyb

    SILVER

    Gold/silver ratio currently down to 77.25 The 10 year chart appears to indicate an excellent opportunity to buy silver. Silver was 20 when the gold stocks were in current level.
  8. XLE or OIH ? and at what price would you start investing ? With Iranian crude to be released soon, there is talk about 20 $ oil.
  9. Harry Dent studies demographic influences in the economy. But his recent predictions are way off the mark, according to wikipedia. His comments should be considered with some scepticism.
  10. lyb

    GOLD

    The swiss franc acts as competition to gold as safe heaven. After the revaluation of the franc, gold should become more attractive, no ?
  11. lyb

    Valuing Gold

    I believe the best way to value gold is cost of production. Investment demand, as we have seen is fickle affected by psychology. All in average costs for the industry appears to be about 1100-1200$/ounch (including costs for exploration to replace reserves). http://goldnews.bull...ining-062820123 http://beta.fool.com...-on-gold/29786/ These costs appear to rise fast about 10%/year. These figures provide the only solid basis for gold as investment. As far as QE is concerned, it seems that as long as inflation fails to materialize (in the official figures), QE is disregarded as a reason for investment. True, some central banks are buying but the amounts so far are too small to make a difference. The Chinese central bank which might be expected to be interested in diversifying some of its enormous reserves, has declared that it it happy with more or less the gold reserves its already got. (at least this is what they say). Other methods of evaluation of gold involving debt and predicting high prices may be reasonable, but it appears with hindsight that they should be regarded as a POSSIBILITY not EXPECTATION.
  12. lyb

    GOLD

    'Heavy discount from spot on bullionvault, which is sort of a closed garden. I think the ferocity of this move on no real news has spooked a lot of joe public.' True. I bought as low as 30200 Euros/kilo few hours ago about 11% less than current price. How is this possible?
  13. It is not a 'tax' , it is confiscation of property. Back in 1929, following the crash, there were bank failures and many people lost all their money. We thought we had a 'new' system. For instance, there was a guarantee by the Cyprus government that all deposits below 100000 Euros were safe. That's gone, trust is gone with the blessings of the E.U. Commission that proposed and accepted the decision that all deposits would be affected. One by one, the countries in South Europe are forced to accept the terms imposed on them to save their economy. There is no unity between south European nations. Reminds me the way Austria and Chechoslovakia were picked one by one, bullied and forced to surrender without the loss of a single life. And the world believed then that each was a unique case and it would not affect them (analogy stops there). It was military affair then, now it is a financial war, a war between creditors and debtors. What is next? Greek banks are in trouble due to the decline in the property market and bad debts. Shall we confiscate people's savings to save them? When the time comes, yes, it could happen, given the Cypriot precedent. Same with Spain. Greece owes 300 billion Euros, same as before the last bailout, interest rates should be reduced to 1% to allow Greece, Spain to have some hope to repay their debts. And debts elsewhere, as you all know continue to grow. There are more sophisticated techniques of confiscation. Let the tax authority ask for taxpayers to record all their property in the tax form, real estate, cash, bonds shares etc, then let's impose a 'solidarity levy' (read confiscation) of 1-2% per year, on a progressive scale. This is in the process of happening where I live. In this war, the most effective resistance of common people, to protect their savings, is physical gold in their own possession, nothing else.
  14. lyb

    GOLD

    People in the south of Europe are selling their jewellry. Scrap worldwide has increased from a normal 15% of gold supply to the current 40%. This increase keeps gold prices at bay. I was told that all the thousands of pawnshops buying gold for cash will close down next year, as people's gold jewellry is exhausted.
  15. lyb

    GOLD

    Platinum dragging gold along.
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