lyb

Very bullish view. However, the rally we have seen reminds me of the rally of 2005. It is clear now that inflation is not under control, and we will have to live with negative real interest rates. Here at GEI there has been much talk about the prospect of runaway inflation in the past, and now this is real. This will alleviate the world debt problem at the expense of the creditors. Platinum may be a good investment now, given the real possibility of substituting for palladium (most palladium comes from Russia) and its use in hydrogen fuel cells. Any thoughts on this? https://platinuminvestment.com/files/541296/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q4_2021.pdf

Once again, wrong !

Another drop for the gold silver ratio appears to be imminent

I expect the silver induced rally in precious metals to continue (similar to April-May 2006) with break of resistances at 1280, 17.70 . Gold/silver ratio below 72 but too early for upward correction in my opinion.

Very interesting model. You have certainly put a lot of thought and effort.

Gold has exceeded the 1980 high (800) long time ago. But silver is 1/3 of the 1980 high (50). Silver is at a bargain price. If one looks at the 10 year chart, although there will be opportunities to swap silver for gold, the strategy is risky, while the gold/silver ratio is still high. How would someone know when to swap ?

I expected this break out since gold exceeded the 1180$ October high some time ago, while silver was still lagging behind its own 16.40 high. This 4 year decline has been brutal for investors.

Gold/silver ratio currently down to 77.25 The 10 year chart appears to indicate an excellent opportunity to buy silver. Silver was 20 when the gold stocks were in current level.

XLE or OIH ? and at what price would you start investing ? With Iranian crude to be released soon, there is talk about 20 $ oil.

The swiss franc acts as competition to gold as safe heaven. After the revaluation of the franc, gold should become more attractive, no ?

'Heavy discount from spot on bullionvault, which is sort of a closed garden. I think the ferocity of this move on no real news has spooked a lot of joe public.' True. I bought as low as 30200 Euros/kilo few hours ago about 11% less than current price. How is this possible?

It is not a 'tax' , it is confiscation of property. Back in 1929, following the crash, there were bank failures and many people lost all their money. We thought we had a 'new' system. For instance, there was a guarantee by the Cyprus government that all deposits below 100000 Euros were safe. That's gone, trust is gone with the blessings of the E.U. Commission that proposed and accepted the decision that all deposits would be affected. One by one, the countries in South Europe are forced to accept the terms imposed on them to save their economy. There is no unity between south European nations. Reminds me the way Austria and Chechoslovakia were picked one by one, bullied and forced to surrender without the loss of a single life. And the world believed then that each was a unique case and it would not affect them (analogy stops there). It was military affair then, now it is a financial war, a war between creditors and debtors. What is next? Greek banks are in trouble due to the decline in the property market and bad debts. Shall we confiscate people's savings to save them? When the time comes, yes, it could happen, given the Cypriot precedent. Same with Spain. Greece owes 300 billion Euros, same as before the last bailout, interest rates should be reduced to 1% to allow Greece, Spain to have some hope to repay their debts. And debts elsewhere, as you all know continue to grow. There are more sophisticated techniques of confiscation. Let the tax authority ask for taxpayers to record all their property in the tax form, real estate, cash, bonds shares etc, then let's impose a 'solidarity levy' (read confiscation) of 1-2% per year, on a progressive scale. This is in the process of happening where I live. In this war, the most effective resistance of common people, to protect their savings, is physical gold in their own possession, nothing else.

People in the south of Europe are selling their jewellry. Scrap worldwide has increased from a normal 15% of gold supply to the current 40%. This increase keeps gold prices at bay. I was told that all the thousands of pawnshops buying gold for cash will close down next year, as people's gold jewellry is exhausted.

Platinum dragging gold along.

Gold at 1323 Euro/ounch very strong approaching old highs. Gold over 200$ more expensive than Platinum, its strength relies on Euro crisis.

Gold is under a lot of pressure again from the rising dollar. Frankly, I am surprised it does not act as a safe heaven at the moment. Spaniards have an excellent opportunity to protect their savings from the collapsing banks, by converting to gold. However, cash appears to be king at the moment and the turn for gold will only come as a result of new measures from the ECB/Fed.

There are different stages in gold investment. 1) People have committed small fractions of their net investment funds. These are Buy and holders and may look at good BUY points to commit more funds. 2) Next step, is those that have committed a substantial percentage to precious metals. Adding more is not desirable. These people (including myself) may be looking for SELL points with the aim to buy back at lower price. Hence both (1) and (2) may be interested in trading analysis which aims to identify good BUY and SELL points. I take it for granted that we all have jobs to attend. If we spend some time following these threads is because we ARE interested in adding to our position or sell to buy back at a profit. In conclusion, no need for separate B+H and trade threads. However, most are only interested in major BUY/SELL points which are less infrequent and would not be interested in daily fluctuations.

On every consolidation so far as RH's figure clearly shows, the size of the drops gradually diminishes until a new upwards move is established. As RH and myself have already pointed out, the present consolidation since September is already 6 months long, I do not expect a significant drop below 1650$ at this stage, I believe the chances are we will revisit the region 1800-1850 sometime in the next 3 months. That's my guess anyway. It is time to establish a long position. Physical demand has recently been strong at the level 1670$.

I made a 6 figure profit last May selling silver and gold stocks. But I bought back early and missed the December lows. That was my first big commitment, since I have not much experience in trading. My logical conclusion from following the market since 2005, is that it is best to trade only when there is a clear spike of the price well above the 200DMA.

Small drops part of the consolidation process. I wouldn't bother commenting on small fluctuations. Fireworks (upwards) are due in few months. Watch the steady progress of the 200DMA instead.

http://www.rense.com/general13/treasure.htm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamashita's_gold Yamashita's treasure existence appears credible. Especially given Rogelio Roxas lawsuit. Its size remains unknown (perhaps about 10000 tons), perhaps some of it is accounted in official gold reserves.

Secret store of wealth. Robberies have increased 700% in the place where I live, since many people have chosen to store their cash at home. I should therefore also add DIVERSIFICATION is also important. I have some physical and use Kitco pool , Bullionvault and PM shares with 3 banks in 2 countries. Still this may not be enough. The problem with GDXJ is that it has the habbit to drop below lowest levels that you consider possible and always after you have bought. What is 'fair' value?

In Greece, tax authorities started investigating purchases by gold. A list of 600 people are reported to have bought gold since 2009. In a country of 10000000 , given the peril of the banking system,this does not appear to be a big number. The country if full of pawnbrokers and other shops offering to buy your old jewellry for cash.In my opinion all this is evidence of 1) gold is increasingly treated as a currency not an investment. 2) still a long way from strong public interest, especially given the 170 billion Euros sitting idly on bank accounts or the 65 billion sent to other countries. 3) exploitation of the desperate state of many families that have seen wages cut or eliminated and taxes increase.

From past experience, it appears that gold is in a consolidation period at the moment. The long term trend is still upwards. It does not depend on the imposition of a gold standard. It only depends on China's will to increase its reserves in its effort to internationalize its currency and protects its 3 trillion $ reserves from the possibility of further QE.Recently China is suspected to have bought heavily on the drop around 1550$. The chances are it will continue doing so on every significant drop, until the percentage of its gold reserves rise substantially above the pathetic 1.5% which is the present level. Buy and hold is fine. Trading is fine for those experienced to take advantage of the volatility. However, silver and gold stocks are more suitable for trading purposes due to their higher volatility.

Iran to accept payments in gold. Potentially very significant. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/29/us-iran-oil-payment-idUSTRE81S0GU20120229