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shawth

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Everything posted by shawth

  1. This is an interesting topic. One that I looked at a few years ago. I'll start a new thread.
  2. I consider myself to be 100% in pm's and I own a house. I took out a 95% mortgage in 2005 and rode the prices up to 2007 and then I think they have come off by about 10%. However, since buying the house I have moved onto a tracker which runs at 0.5% above base rates. I pay £200 in interest per month, yet if I wnted to rent my house it would cost me nearly £1000. My argument is that you need to put a roof over your head, and so far, buying has been much much cheaper than renting. With rents going up and no signs of interest hikes I know I am much better off. The money I have saved in rent has more than offset the lost opportunity of investing my original 5% + stamp dury and fees in pm's!
  3. I recently ordered some physical silver coins from coininvest. There was a lag. They confirmed receipt of my payment on the 29th September and only confirmed shipment on the 4th October. It arrived yesterday. But given some of the news of silver shortages on some of the blogs, I thought this was a reasonable time.
  4. Sell your gold! At least $'s are backed by the Fed!
  5. Double-agent. I think you have nailed it. I reckon that call will be spot on. Silver has just hit 200dma in dollars. I am reversing back the truck.
  6. Agreed. Gold is rocketing in developing countries currenies and also in swiss franc due to recent devaluation. Gold rocketing in developing currencies.
  7. How can it go below $0? I take your point, but I think these estimates based on gold as a % of total wealth and also total outstanding debt / the amount of above ground gold is a credible way to value gold at the present time given what we know of best estimates of above ground gold and best estimates of total outstanding liabilities, both on and off book. Therefore saying it could go below 0 and to 1,000,000 is theorectically true but doesn't add anything to an investor trying to work out potential tops and if we are anywhere near them.
  8. Agreed. For what its worth, here is the article for the $20k forecast which is to date the highest. I think it is credible, but as pix pointed out, it depends entirely on how much currency needs to be created to pay down the total liabilities of the US. $20k gold forecast
  9. Goldfinger, Will you be posting on any other boards in future? It would be good to continue to get your views, even if it is not aon GEI. ...............oh for gawd's sake, come on man, spill the beans. tell us why you won't be posting on here any more? Did you and Bubb have a bust up? Can't take any more of AAK posts? Do spill the beans! everyone wants to know the gossip!! sorry for the poor taste post but this is the best bit of soap drama we have ever had on this board!
  10. Are these figures £'s or THB? I assume THB as internet can't cost £700 per month. If THB this is unbeiveably cheap as £'s would be (assuming £1000 = 50,000thb:- Electric - £10 Water - £2 Gas - £5 (est) Sewerage (a vacuum tanker turns up - £2 Council tax - 0 Rent - 0 (self-build) Internet - £12 Surely these costs aren't correct. Is the 50,000thb = £1000 incorrect? edit: just checked exchange rate and £1000 is 48k thb so close enough!
  11. Well it looks like I didn't nail the peak! - Dam it! The question is where to now? I still have half my silver bullion and bought in heavily in to gold near the recent low. The silver chart looks like it is developing up like the 2006 peak where there was an initial spike up which then temporarily broke down at around 1.5 200dma and then flared up to 1.7 x 200dma. If we get a repeat, this wll take silver to around $40. This is likely to happen at break neck speed and then correct down just as fast. If we get to 1.7 x 200dma, I will sell another 50% of my silver stash to leave me with 25% of my original base. If silver goes to the moon I will have still done very nicely and it will correct down to 200dma levels again, probably in the summer, although I accept that could be at a higher price than I am selling at. Bring it on!
  12. Agreed, now inflation is in, we are not likely to see falls. See data from the 70's. S2Ring is high risk. All Houses (UK) 1952 Q4 = 100 Index Price Annual Change Q4 1969 228.1 4,312 5.5 Q1 1970 231.5 4,378 5.6 Q2 1970 235.5 4,452 6.0 Q3 1970 238.4 4,508 6.6 Q4 1970 242.4 4,582 6.3 Q1 1971 250.7 4,741 8.3 Q2 1971 259.6 4,908 10.3 Q3 1971 277.3 5,244 16.3 Q4 1971 292.6 5,533 20.7 Q1 1972 317.7 6,008 26.7 Q2 1972 346.8 6,557 33.6 Q3 1972 391.1 7,395 41.0 Q4 1972 416.7 7,880 42.4 Q1 1973 444.0 8,396 39.8 Q2 1973 467.1 8,832 34.7 Q3 1973 485.7 9,183 24.2 Q4 1973 516.6 9,767 24.0 Q1 1974 525.1 9,928 18.2 Q2 1974 530.3 10,027 13.5 Q3 1974 536.7 10,148 10.5 Q4 1974 539.9 10,208 4.5 Q1 1975 549.4 10,388 4.6 Q2 1975 567.4 10,728 7.0 Q3 1975 580.6 10,978 8.2 Q4 1975 597.0 11,288 10.6 Q1 1976 609.2 11,519 10.9 Q2 1976 620.9 11,739 9.4 Q3 1976 634.6 11,999 9.3 Q4 1976 645.7 12,209 8.2 Q1 1977 656.3 12,409 7.7 Q2 1977 671.1 12,689 8.1 Q3 1977 686.0 12,970 8.1 Q4 1977 695.5 13,150 7.7 Q1 1978 730.9 13,820 11.4 Q2 1978 766.4 14,491 14.2 Q3 1978 841.6 15,912 22.7 Q4 1978 889.7 16,823 27.9 Q1 1979 941.1 17,793 28.7 Q2 1979 1008.9 19,075 31.6 Q3 1979 1083.5 20,485 28.7 Q4 1979 1161.8 21,966 30.6 Q1 1980 1199.4 22,677 27.4 Q2 1980 1234.8 23,348 22.4 Q3 1980 1249.7 23,628 15.3 Q4 1980 1242.8 23,497 7.0 Q1 1981 1255.1 23,730 4.6 Q2 1981 1274.5 24,098 3.2 Q3 1981 1279.3 24,188 2.4 Q4 1981 1258.7 23,798 1.3 Q1 1982 1278.7 24,177 1.9 Q2 1982 1305.2 24,679 2.4 Q3 1982 1320.6 24,969 3.2 Q4 1982 1352.9 25,580 7.5 Q1 1983 1391.4 26,307 8.8 Q2 1983 1448.4 27,386 11.0 Q3 1983 1490.2 28,175 12.8 Q4 1983 1513.9 28,623 11.9 Q1 1984 1569.5 29,675 12.8 Q2 1984 1630.7 30,833 12.6 Q3 1984 1653.0 31,254 10.9 Q4 1984 1721.2 32,543 13.7 Q1 1985 1755.9 33,200 11.9 Q2 1985 1807.4 34,174 10.8 Q3 1985 1835.3 34,700 11.0 Q4 1985 1874.2 35,436 8.9 Q1 1986 1885.3 35,647 7.4 Q2 1986 1957.7 37,015 8.3 Q3 1986 2023.1 38,251 10.2 Q4 1986 2094.1 39,593 11.7 Q1 1987 2162.2 40,882 14.7 Q2 1987 2273.5 42,987 16.1 Q3 1987 2350.1 44,434 16.2 Q4 1987 2345.9 44,355 12.0 Q1 1988 2384.8 45,091 10.3 Q2 1988 2588.0 48,932 13.8 Q3 1988 2874.6 54,352 22.3 Q4 1988 3027.7 57,245 29.1 Q1 1989 3148.7 59,534 32.0 Q2 1989 3292.0 62,244 27.2 Q3 1989 3320.5 62,782 15.5 Q4 1989 3252.4 61,495 7.4 Q1 1990 3151.5 59,587 0.1 Q2 1990 3119.5 58,982 -5.2 Q3 1990 3027.7 57,245 -8.8 Q4 1990 2904.6 54,919 -10.7 Q1 1991 2885.0 54,547 -8.5 Q2 1991 2931.0 55,418 -6.0 Q3 1991 2903.8 54,903 -4.1 Q4 1991 2836.7 53,635 -2.3 Q1 1992 2760.1 52,187 -4.3 Q2 1992 2785.3 52,663 -5.0 Q3 1992 2763.1 52,243 -4.8 Q4 1992 2653.4 50,168 -6.5 Q1 1993 2651.3 50,128 -3.9 Q2 1993 2745.9 51,918 -1.4 Q3 1993 2736.8 51,746 -1.0 Q4 1993 2700.0 51,050 1.8 Q1 1994 2714.6 51,327 2.4 Q2 1994 2716.5 51,362 -1.1 Q3 1994 2736.0 51,731 0.0 Q4 1994 2756.3 52,114 2.1 Q1 1995 2701.8 51,084 -0.5 Q2 1995 2730.8 51,633 0.5 Q3 1995 2715.0 51,334 -0.8 Q4 1995 2693.7 50,930 -2.3
  13. I was very tempted to do what you have done back in 2009. The only reason I didn't was because I didn't want the upheaval and so decided that my home was a home and not an investment. It looks like that the FED are going to print, rint and print, so we are looking at inflation. Therefore I think it is likely that we we will see a sideways move in house prices and possibly rises in desireabale areas, ie in North London that you have already high-lighted. Once inflation starts to grip the economy, the government will have run out of options and at some point rates will have to go up and go up big. At that point, people will be screaming to get off the property ladder as they won't be able to afford their repayments, but won't be able to sell as the property market will be in free fall. It will be a blood bath. 30-50% drop in 3 years. You will then be sitting pretty with bucket loads of cash and you willl be able to pick up a property at bargain basement values with probably minimum mortgage. The problem is, if the fed and bank of england may print to infinity and if we get hyper inflation, bricks and mortar will be a great way to protect your wealth, but at some point rates will have to go up to choke off inflation. My view is that if you have your s2r stash in precious metals, you will grow that quicker than house prices will grow, albeit property is generally leveraged so the affects of the rises are multiplied on an ROI basis. You may have to put up with being the laughing stock for a few years, but I think you will eventually look very smart. I can't see any end to this financial mess other than high inflation, low growth for the next few years followed by very high interest rates. My colleague told me that in the early 90's he lost his job and mortgage rates went up to 15%. He was within an inch of losing his house and finally found a job in the nick of time. Hold on in there, but for heavens sake, make sure you invest your s2r fund in gold / commodities not cash. You have been bold enough to sell a real asset, albeit an over valued one, but to make this work you have to invest the cash in an undervalued asset, ie silver or gold or other commodities, otherwise, even if you are only half invested, you will get slaughtered by inflation. I think in time, you'll be sitting pretty, but I dare say you will have a few years of snide remarks from friends who are seeing the value of their houses edge up. Once IR's go north, the shoe will firmly be on the other foot.
  14. Fair enough. I was just making the point that on balance of probabilities, with the spx levitating, we could easily see further weakness which is slightly more bearish stance than the more bullish assesment that the bottom might have already been in. But I am probably splitting hairs as it seems we are all in violent agreement!
  15. I won't call the bottom until the SPX has corrected. However, I have been buying gold recently as you never know the future with certainty. There is a possibility the spx could grind sideways to burn off excessive complacency, but I think it is far more likely it will correct and bring gold down with it. As Gold is at its 200 dma, then I would only expect a max 5% drop in gold. Silver could easily correct another 10-20% from these levels. The bottom isn't necessrily in yet!
  16. I bought some gold etf's today, but didn't load up. The overbought spx is likely to weigh on gold even down at the 200dma and we may see gold temporarily fall below the 200dma during the pull back of the spx. I think silver could get hammered.
  17. 5 year gold 200 dma bounces Gold has just hit the 200dma in sterling. Time to pile in.
  18. Warpig, This is a normal seasonal correction. The price of silver had risen too far, too quickly and from a short term perspective the price was too over bought and in need of a correction to burn off some of the complacency in the market. From my earlier posts from a multiple of the 200dma, silver climbed to a point that it has rarely breached in the bull to date, ie 1.5x 200dma. This was a key sell signal. But look at the SPX. My fear is that the SPX is also heading for a correction, which will have a big affect on silver stocks, ie when there is a sell off in the spx, the sell off in pm stocks is usually 2 to 3 times greater. Currently, all contrarian sell indicators are at their extremes, ie VXO not been this low since Apr 2010 (16%SPX correction), simililarly with SPX bullish percent indicator (BPI) is 87.4 which is the same peak it was in Apr 2010. The put call ratio is also at correction highs. There is just far too much complacency in the market and this needs to burn off. A healthy dose of fear needs to be injected in to the market. This is just how markets work. Last week I bought some Feb 19 puts on SSRI silver miner which so far have done outstandingly well. A short term put is normally very risky, but at these over bought levels it is definately worth a punt as the probability of success is high.
  19. Because all silver peaks in the bull to date have co-incided with gold peaking and this is why I think, following the early Feb bottom, there is a good chance we will see a strong rally in gold and silver, so the interim top may not yet be in. This is especially true as the seasonals into spring tend to be good and there is a lot of evidence of silver shortages in the comex, which hedge funds could use to force the price of silver up. I can see $40 being taken out. If this happens and we go above 1.5 x 200dma again, this will be a very definate sell signal to position for the summer duldrums and the autum rally. Therefore if all goes to plan I will then be buying back in late July / early August when it sinks to 1.0 x 200dma.
  20. So far, this trade (fingers crossed) has gone well, so it is good to look back at the thinking and the sentiment at the time. My approach to trading relative to the 200dma is standing up very well.
  21. Although I did miss the absolute peak as the UK market was closed on the 4th Jan, I did sell 50% of my silver in mid December (despite alot of people on here indicatig I was bonkers) so I am now cash rich for when silver bottoms out in 2-3 weeks time. It is like taking a silver holiday and then getting free silver as a present for your return back to market.
  22. its already dropped nearly 13% from the peak of just over $31. I see it dropping to between $22-$25 (ie a 20-30% peak to trough)
  23. It is likely to follow seasonal trends and rise in to march early April and then grind sideways in to the summer where it will hit its 200dma. That will be the buying signal for the 2011 Autumn rally. Your chart RH is not sensible. You have extrapolated the trend into the 2008 low. This was caused by a genuine once in a hundred year market panic and won't be repeated for a long time. It is far more likely that this year we will see institutional investors fleeing sovereign debt and most of the cash will get piled in to the stock markets, so I expect 2011 to be a very good year for stocks. If you are waiting for silver to hit $15 I think it is highly likely you will miss the boat. $15 silver is now consigned firmly in the history books.
  24. Silver climbed to $31.19 on Monday and has now retreated below its 22 day moving average for the first time since late August. I now think it is highly probable that we will see a sell off between 20% and could be as much as 30% in line with an SPX sell off. This normally takes around 3 weeks, although the SPX has held firm this week. I therefore expect a low by the end of Jan / 1st week in Feb of around $22-$25. I will then be reversing up the truck to load up heavily for what may be a large spring rally.
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