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50sQuiff

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About 50sQuiff

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  1. 50sQuiff

    GOLD

    The sterling price of gold sovereigns at CoinInvest is down 4.1% peak-to-trough in this latest correction. Forgive me for not panicking.
  2. The funny thing is I listened to that same podcast. Eric King asked Sinclair "what price would put gold on a bullish stance," or something along those lines. Sinclair replied "$1735, and if it could manage it by the end of the week..." I'm not sure how that tallies with your comments. I can't possibly comment on your Super Stardom. I'm too lost for words. Your argument is basically "as long as the banks who underwrite derivatives continue to remain solvent, everything is fine with the derivatives system." This coming from a guy who created a forum dedicated to the unsustainable nature of the global economy! $16 trillion says your derivatives system is built on quicksand. Obviously oil would never go to $200 in your scenario, just like US house prices never fall on a national scale But let's say oil does go to $200 and our derivative contracts pay out a flat $1 million for each $1 on a barrel of oil. Let's say Bank A goes bankrupt due to losses on its mortgage portfolio. With oil at $200, Bank B had expected to receive $100m from Bank A, to net off the $90m it now owes to Bank C. But it doesn't receive anything, so all of a sudden Bank B has a net liability of $90m. Now let's say we mark Bank B's balance sheet to market and it's struggling to liquidate assets in extreme market conditions. It can't make the payment on time without admitting it's insolvent. So Bank C - which was relying on the $90m from Bank B to pay Bank D on its mortgage derivative contracts - itself now has a net liability of $90m as other banks pull collateral. Bank A needs $100m, Bank B needs $90m and Bank C needs $90m. Bank D, which hates the other three banks so it deliberately marks down certain assets to harm the balance sheets of its opponents. They all panic and liquidate assets at firesale prices, further destroying their own balance sheets. Trust starts to break down and the Saudis and Co start pulling dollar deposits. Liabilities are now off the scale and panic sets in. Now we have two choices. The system implodes, almost every bank in the world goes bankrupt and DrBubb starts wondering why his brokerage account won't load or why HSBC aren't answering his calls. 50sQuiff triumphantly calls his father to say "See! That's why I told you to hoard cans of tuna and Lloyd Grossman pasta sauce!" OR The Fairy Godmother guarantees the purchase of Bank A by Bank B, explicitly prints $90m and gives it to Bank B to give to Bank C, which then gives $90m to Goldma... I mean Bank D. It then buys all the worthless assets from Bank AB, C and D at par and doles out billions of dollars to all of them. FASB abolishes mark-to-market accounting. Warren Buffets steps in to invest in Bank D. This stems the international run on the banks and some semblance of calm is restored. Oil drops to $100 and thanks to the support of the Fairy Godmother, the banks increase their oil derivatives by 30% because nothing can possibly go wrong. DrBubb thinks his system worked beautifully and retires to a sustainable paddy field community bordering the Korean Demilitarized Zone. However trust in debt assets, debt-based currency and the system itself are irrevocably damaged. Gold's ascent resumes, characterised by a growing preference for physical outright ownership. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxz6gYIiFHc
  3. This isn't the first time I've pulled you up on this, but it will probably be the last. You're just deceiving people - willfully I think. The only reason why derivatives haven't blown up is because the Fed created and distributed $16 trillion in 2008. That's not conjecture. That is a fact that you're still in denial about. It's the only reason any of the major counterparties remained solvent and the whole system didn't unravel. I know you helped to create this system but by what objective standard could this be considered a success? A sane person might call it the most disastrous abject failure in the history of finance. But fortunately for you Alan Greespan pledged that the Fed stands ready to create money "without limit" to backstop such foolish attempts to 'eliminate' risk. And create money "without limit" they will. All the holders of this virtual debt-wealth will be made whole in nominal terms. Perhaps that will be considered a success too.
  4. 50sQuiff

    GOLD

    GBP Gold down 1.68%. Premiums on sovereigns up 1.79%.
  5. 50sQuiff

    GOLD

    I may have been exaggerating a wee bit to wind up the dollar bugs But I feel that when this paper system - the system that enables flow of physical at such low prices - eventually breaks, it's going to break in truly spectacular fashion.
  6. 50sQuiff

    GOLD

    Indeed. Chanelling you-know-who for a second, TPTB can't afford paper gold to decouple so badly with physical otherwise real gold will 'go in to hiding'. This will drive the stock-to-flow ratio of gold to infinity, create dollar hyperinflation and destroy the USD Reserve system there and then. This is why we get the managed ascent of paper gold. I suspect the central banks are targeting the minimum paper POG possible to ensure the ongoing flow of physical. I think we're going to smash through the 1980-SGS CPI price in physical gold without breaking sweat. 1980 was just a dress-rehearsal for the end of the USD reserve system, with a superspike that I believe was caused by panic buying in size by the Middle East and some central banks (Iran, ironically enough) bidding for gold in the open market. Where is Volcker this time? Who is willing and able to impose mass poverty on the West with 20% interest rates? Let me give you some interesting reading Malvern Once you understand that hyperinflation is a demand side phenomenon and printing is the supply side response, it becomes somewhat clearer. The question of "how do you get the money into people's hands" is practically irrelevant and misleading. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-2.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/big-gap-in-understanding-weakens.html http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/04/deflation-or-hyperinflation.html And folks, please do drop by the golbu.gs chat room to share your forecasts, charts, pictures of rockets - whatever - as we watch this gold market unfold.
  7. This 'riskless/everything nets to zero/aren't we so damn clever' line is plainly banker claptrap. Everything is fine until one of the counterparties runs out of liquidity and starts having collateral plundered by the other vultures (AIG, Goldman). So then the whole clusterfuck can only be saved by unlimited money creation by the central bank to maintain nominal performance of these derivative contracts. Sinclair has always had this bang on and he will continue to be right in this regard. Derivatives = QE to infinity.
  8. 50sQuiff

    UK House prices: News & Views

    After being a city-dweller for 12 years now, if I was to have kids the idea of a nice suburb is appealing.
  9. 50sQuiff

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I don't think the lack of jobs is for want of cheaper gasoline. Some cars now do what, 6 times more mpg than they did during the 70s? The impoverishment of the US is a result of the US Dollar reserve system, socialism, militarism and international wage arbitrage. The suburbs are just a pleasant living arrangement that you seem to really hate.
  10. 50sQuiff

    GOLD

    If we start confiscating gold in Britain, we'll destroy the reputation earned over what - 400 years? - for respecting financial property rights in the City. That means no CNY trading hub for the Chinese, no more LCH.Clearnet, LIFFE, LME, LBMA, no more investment banking and no more scared billionaires seeking safe-haven. In the words we'll destroy the only remaining 'industry' in which we're a global powerhouse. Britain will never ever harm its banksters. There are places to store your private property that have survived two world wars without so much as a broken hinge, so I don't even think a 'Mad Max' scenario is a threat to your stash. I'd be more worried about corrupt or incapable police officers on fishing expeditions. After Operation Rize I wouldn't trust the Met police for example, so my gold is in the City of London.
  11. 50sQuiff

    The Best of Youtube - Music

    Something to wake you old folks up tomorrow morning http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4HfmVEdA_Q&hd=1
  12. 50sQuiff

    GOLD

    How very cute and smug to describe the PM blogosphere as a cult. I suppose if there actually was a homogeneous entity identifiable as the "PM blogosphere" and cults were founded on historical and monetary analysis then he might have a point. Has he ever met a football fan or been on a football forum? Football is a cult! Has he ever been on a music forum dedicated to a certain band or genre? Music is a cult! A forum dedicated to Macs and Ipods? Apple is a cult! What amazing insight... not. I wonder what this analysis makes mainstream financial media - CNBC, MoneyWeek and the like. Christianity perhaps? I think Christians are batshit insane to a varying degree, so I'm quite content in my gold cult-like surroundings
  13. 50sQuiff

    GOLD

    DrBubb, assuming you still have a medium/long-term bullish stance on gold, do you currently have any downside targets that would cause you to add to your position? I know quite a few people looking to make purchases, albeit with well-sized positions already, so they have the luxury of patience.
  14. 50sQuiff

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Do vendors say, "sorry mate you can't pay the market price, it's winter so we have to seasonally adjust" ? The model forecasts a spring bounce starting with the April figures (from memory). It could be March or May. I'll update the charts after Halifax releases their January numbers.
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