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emel

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About emel

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  1. While the S&P is up 14% ytd, I've started to see larger intraday swings in volatility, especially over the last few weeks. I've continued trading UVXY to try and take advantage of this, with the last 2 weeks working out well for me. I closed out one large trade with a modest loss, but have since had better success by increasing trading frequency. I'm still looking for an entry point, where I feel totally comfortable lettings things ride. With the markets jumping on Friday, UVXY has now shifted lower still - 6.08. I still see a potential spike in UVXY and as we get further info May, the markets will top out and the VIX will shoot up again. Still, I understand this is contrarian, and the latest US jobs data did look improved, but I fail to see how current market levels can be sustained. Also, I'm looking at AGQ once more, and will start building a position in this again.
  2. I ended up buying at $8.81 on Friday, this was simply as I had to travel and didn't get round to it before. Today, there was another downward move, and it's trading close to $8 as a result of VIX being at a 5 year low. That's right everyone, the economy is stable, RISK IS OFF
  3. Very true. And if anything, I think UVXY is too exciting.
  4. I've traded in and out of UVXY a couple of times in the last two weeks. Once for a small gain, another time for a +15% gain in less than 24 hours! I'm not sure I have the stomach for a multi-week position, this thing makes AGQ look boring. However, I do believe VIX is too low at these levels. I'm buying again around $10 tomorrow, it looks like it will open below this.
  5. I was thinking of taking a position for around 4 - 12 weeks. I know that these tracking ETFs tend to have a tracking error associated with them, and this increases as time goes on, so I wouldn't want to hold long term. However, for short term trading, I think they are fit for purpose. With the trend in VIX being down over the last few months, this is definitely a contrarian play. And right on cue, I found this article today. http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-02-12/volatility-index-closing-out-february-whimper This details how VIX has broken support several times, and suggests the current upwards trend in stocks will continue to push VIX down until around May. The question is, will there be some sort of market shock soon which will cause VIX, and these ETFs to spike?
  6. It was mentioned earlier in this thread, but has anyone being tracking VIX and its associated ETFs? In recent months, stocks have been steadily climbing, and are now at similar levels to before the banking crisis. This is despite the fact that nothing has really been done to fix the underlying issues. As such, VXX and UVXY (2x leveraged) are at lows. Right now, I see a sharp spike in these more likely than in PMs, certainly in the short term. Not for the faint-hearted of course, and I wouldn't consider holding for anything more than a short period. 3 month UVXY chart
  7. emel

    SILVER

    Yeah, i will. My long term physical (Goldmoney) strategy is unchanged. It's just my shorter term AGQ plans which will need to evolve. Nice graph by the way, puts things into perspective well.
  8. emel

    SILVER

    I certainly hope so, the recent activity in AGQ has been brutal. It is certainly not for the faint-hearted. The only positive was that I was on vacation for a lot of it, so wasn't paying attention to the blood bath every day. Right now, my original plan to exit my position in mid-Feb is pretty much in tatters. I was expecting the well-established seasonality in the PM markets to be the main driver. This doesn't seem to be the case. However, this recent activity doesn't affect my belief in the long term fundamentals, and I will begin buying again this week. Longer term, my big worry is now that I will need these funds later this year as a down-payment for a house. I have a feeling I will miss out on the main action in the next couple of years.
  9. emel

    SILVER

    It was certainly an eventful today. So, with QE3 announced, how high is this going to go? I see this double-whammy of seemingly infinite QE and the traditional seasonality in PMs to be very, very exciting. I now see us entering a phase of steady appreciation until mid Feb, with the occasional mini-smackdown to keep us on our toes. I've said before I was targeting 70, but this ETF certainly moves quickly - I now think that will be reached within weeks. 80 by the end of year is possible, 90 by mid Feb (end of favourable PM seasonality). Longer term than that, I think the patient will be further rewarded. Eventually I expect some form of regional credit event or restructuring,to contribute to a spike. I don't know what form this will take, but they will be no doubt when it happens.
  10. emel

    SILVER

    Well, this AGQ trade didn't play out how I expected, but I think we are finally on track. I suppose I was silly to ignore silver's seasonality. However, when AGQ dipped, I was able to buy a lot more in the $35-$40 range, averaging down substantially. I'm now 20% up, and bullish. I'm still targeting 70, but we will see. I have quite a lot tied up with this trade, thankfully, I can't see anything that appeals to me more.
  11. emel

    SILVER

    I'm really not sure about your target of 600, but I agree that we've recently had a good entry point. I bought on Friday at a price of $52.86. I decided to buy based on a belief that QE3 will push the price of silver/gold up (I also hold physical), and various SMA charts suggested a low was approaching. I got a nice move up after purchase on Friday and on Monday, while it fell back a bit today. I'm happy with the timing, and my target is only around 70. I'm not expecting to hold for long, but as always, things can change. I'm playing with money inside my "trading account" here, it's a relatively small amount and I'm happy to take on more risk than my other portfolios.
  12. emel

    SILVER

    Well, the double-leverage ETF will make any retracement a bit more exciting for you, but so far so good. In fact, you may have demonstrated excellent timing with your ballsy move. I think 50 by the end of the year is perfectly possible, but I'm not sure if we'll see 100 for a very long time. I'm happy to be proven wrong, but feel if we see it in the next few years, it will be after some extreme volatility, by which time things will be too hot for me and I'll be in gold or even cash. My target for selling is 65 within 2 years, I'd also start swapping to gold if the g:s ratio looks favourable again (around 40).
  13. emel

    SILVER

    An excellent trade, congratulations.
  14. emel

    SILVER

    After playing the gold:silver ratio game earlier this year, I have been steadily accumulating silver again - since the crash at the start of May. I felt pretty happy about buying it at below $35, but stopped in the last couple of weeks as we closed in on $40. I expected silver to follow more gold closely, but they seem to have diverged more than I expected. Looking at the charts and current price, I think I would have been better off buying gold actually, although marginally so. And this could quickly change. The ratio has increased to around 46 now, so I'm happy to recommence buying silver. I don't know yet what my target ratio is for swapping to gold, or when this will happen, but I'm sure we'll get there eventually.
  15. emel

    SILVER

    Very nice indeed. I played the silver to gold game too. I swapped a total of 60% of my silver in three equal(ish) tranches at ratios of 40 (yeah, too early I know), 31 and 32. I would have liked to have swapped more, but things moved faster than I expected, I even missed my chance to swap at 30.5 as I was in a meeting at work and people kept expecting for me to contribute, rather than stare at my laptop - damn them! Anyway, I'm happy overall. I may follow your lead here, and swap some back at this ratio. I'm not as bullish as some here about PMs, but I worry about dollar devaluation and as i earn in $US, I like to spread my risk. Having said that, I do believe there is the potential for the emotional aspect of a bubble economy to send the price of PMs rocketing to very high, never-seen-before levels. We're just waiting for a large shock event - it may be the restructure of the euro, it may be another global recession when the printing presses stop. I don't know. I just know I'd rather be holding PMs if (*cough* when) it does happen. I will continue buying silver regularly, keeping my eye on favourable ratios (>35) to swap to gold. I still favour silver over gold right now.
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