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Everything posted by hector

  1. Offloaded another tranche at 656. Will like to run the rest if possible as those were acquired quite cheaply.
  2. Sold off 25% at 643. Had quite a big position so not quite bearish on it yet.
  3. Sold off half at 1.05, squaring the trade made at 0.95. Will leave rest from 0.82 to ride.
  4. It was looking bearish until, naturally, Trump announced the trade deal and gave the bulls a second wind. Closed my shorts on Tuesday and will watch for a week or two.
  5. FRES pays a dividend and they are constructing a new mine at Juanicipio with MAG. So a safe play here, already in slight profit.
  6. 10 out of the last 11 weeks of the SPX have been green. Don't you think it's time for a little correction?
  7. May have stayed down while FRES officially falls out of FTSE100 today. Looking for UK miners to outperform US miners over next few weeks.
  8. Think impeachment means this is a short-term top, at least. Also there are some articles saying go 100% into equities, nothing in bonds. Maybe an important indicator. ‘I’m 100% in equities…You’re never going to make enough money if you have 40% of your money in bonds’ says CNBC’s Becky Quick
  9. Another day where HSBA is matching FRES. I wonder what the connection could be? 🤔
  10. Fully loaded in UK silver miner Fresnillo. After falling out of FTSE100 it's definitely bottomed. Still down about 5% 😢 but not for much longer.
  11. hector


    Fully loaded in UK silver miner Fresnillo. After falling out of FTSE100 it's definitely bottomed.
  12. Result was down, with the decisive break on UK Election result. Seems like GO for bearish USD bets, with no rate rises on horizon.
  13. Hypothesis: US Dollar (and maybe EUR) will commence inflation (faster than usual) to bail out the Eurozone debt. Perhaps lasting for around a year, maybe 2. But I think the Fed will be able to avoid hyperinflation. The US economy is fundamentally stronger and sounder than the majority of the rest of the world. The banking cartel will sacrifice dollar strength in order to keep their other major currency, the Euro, from being destroyed by a catastrophic debt collapse coming later this year. Anecdotal evidence for this, are the long-term downtrends in the banking stocks of England. We also have known for some time that Deutsche Bank is insolvent. Draghi's statements this week supports this theory. The Eurozone has clearly failed in its recovery from the 2008-2009 crises despite very accommodative monetary policy. This in contrast to the resurgent and resilient US economy. It may be unwise to short the US stocks, if the inflation will run for some time. But it will probably be safer to short UK/Euro stocks, tempered by the fact that ECB may also commence inflation. Needless to say it will be safe to hold onto precious metals and perhaps increasingly, cryptos. A rising gold price may be one mechanism the ECB uses to purchase debt given its large gold holdings. Another play would be to short the Dollar index. It seems to be just beginning to tip over on the monthly. But if Draghi is signalling that he will simultaneously inflate the Euro, then that may be a limited play. Maybe long Cable only - people have been overly bearish on Sterling due to the Brexit fiasco but it will turn out to have been a storm in a teacup (we hope, haha). I do not believe that Sterling will be at all-time lows around the 31 October when we are due to leave the EU. Thoughts? opinions? Is this a sound, plausible analysis? I'm aware of the perils of being an armchair economist and pontificating, but it's important to conjecture what may be a major macro factor coming into play.
  14. Seems to be having trouble breaking $11 decisively. Jumped out at $10.74. US silver miners may have topped for now, or at the very least congested.
  15. MUX reaching the bottom of the weekly trend channel... but supply above may be too great to bounce off significantly. DrB is it doomed to sub $1?
  16. I was not brave enough to follow my own advice to long Cable. Nevertheless I have sterling deposits.
  17. Dollar getting real close to falling out of the channel. All hell might be breaking loose imminently. I wonder if the FOMC will knock this out? EUR rate and UK election also this week.
  18. I think ultimately stocks will go higher. We are assuming dollar weakness and people staying in cash like Buffett because they can't see any bargains. Also the index bubble means more retirement funds into stocks, while unemployment is low. Meanwhile hedgies who are short are getting burned. In the short term, maybe a lot of choppiness, so could be some opportunistic shorts here and there like over this year.
  19. Hmm, what's your take? Safe to be bearish on semiconductors?
  20. Bottom fell out without silver even capitulating. Really hope I've not been had here.
  21. Lib dem leader looks game for it.
  22. Thanks DrB and Jerpy. I was doubly lucky because I don't have realtime quotes so stabbing a bit in the dark really! Let's hope that is close to bottom and these junior miners as a whole move on up with a vengeance.
  23. Feels like commodities have finished their corrections and are ready to start the next leg higher. Metals and crude are what I'm looking at. Not sure about cryptos but they are also a type of commodity. At least expecting DXY to touch 97 first.
  24. Woww looks like I caught pretty much the bottom of that drop. $6.11 was bottom, I got fills at 6.15, 6.20 and 6.27.