hector

Sad to see this basically go back to my buy in price. It seems to be going through a period of 'adjustment' and is not a real threat to long term holder positions. Will probably add some if it goes to £6.xx.

I'm interested in knowing where you think the top of the move will happen?

And yes let's celebrate and dance for now. For what was anticipated all along.

Thanks for the reassurance DrB. One of the reasons I still hold is due to your holding and continued enthusiasm. I think the best strategy is to hold on until end of the year when gold should be definitely higher and McEwen has reported better full year on year production and further drill results. I believe 1.8 is currently the fair value so doesn't make sense to sell now. And that fair value is rising all the time.

There's no follow through here. Every time I post here with excitement is the top of the move. It really sucks. Shoulda bought First Majestic.

Mux 1.97

Resistance smashed

Expecting 2.2 to hit. Can't stop now.

Feel like an idiot after all the yo-yoing, but I hope this time it will finally break 1.85, and then we will aim for DrB's target of 2.2.

Not a smooth ride this week but we have this:

McEwen Mining Exploration Drives a Potential New Source of Production

Indeed. Gold has gone through its correction when the Fed tightened last year. The Fed cannot tighten anymore and gold has broken out. As I said just before the breakout, that was the last we've seen of $1290 gold forever. It will never again go below that price.

Agree with the analysis DrB. Here's to a smooth ride to 2.2.

What do we think about MUX today?

Currently trading back at 1.85. It's been a good boy.

There is talk on Stockhouse that traders are gunning for a short squeeze. And that could send prices to $3.

Also could be down to low liquidity before July 4 perhaps?

In mid February I wrote this:

No reason why stocks should end up lower over the year if USD depreciates relative to assets. In fact all fiat currencies are depreciating rapidly and that is why stock markets the world over are rising despite the fundamentals being crappy. I'd say we will probably be still around these levels (after a lot of ranging/whipsawing) at the end of the year.

Possibly in the UK stocks at least we will continue a general rise into July to reach the top of the monthly range and then come back down the rest of the year to either the middle or bottom of the range. (FTSE 6580 - 7770)

I am using the month of July as a mental milestone, particularly for the UK markets.

BTC has topped for now. Was a combination of altcoin capitulation back into BTC and new capital coming into BTC off the back of Libra.

Now I expect the easy gains to be made by investing in the depressed altcoins. ETH/BTC ratio has strong support at 0.025 and with the sell pressure taken off it is expected to bounce back to range resistance at 0.035.

I see a small bounce at least for HK10. But silver is now falling again, and the extradition protests are not over.

Still rising:

BTC 12k

ETH 340

I don't want to be harsh but a trader musn't deny reality.

Crypto will have its place in the capital structure.

He who has the dollar, makes the rules...?

Bit of a long winded video, only watched the first 10 minutes.

Generally it's on the right side (my side haha).

They assert that the market settled on gold as sound money. As far as I'm aware of history there was a competition between silver and gold, but since gold was rarer it was easier to concentrate in fewer hands becoming the ultimate store of value.

On the topic of rates, I think the US economy would be able to tolerate current levels and survive after the inevitable recession and bankruptcies. What I'm conjecturing is that they are going to loosen the dollar in order to cushion the debt problem in Europe, as the bankers have interests on both sides of the pond. In other words the American people get to shoulder some of the burden.

Euro rates are surely stuck in the gutter. However, the BoE MPC has made noises about raising rates two times over the next two years, so I don't expect rate cutting from them. Hence I see a more buoyant sterling to support the currency in the event of a No deal Brexit shock. This is where to look for opportunities when the inevitable recession and market crashes hit as people default.

On 2/24/2019 at 3:36 AM, hector said:

Gentlemen I can confidently confirm the bull market in crypto has begun anew - I hope you all have accumulated at least some percentage of your net worth in crypto otherwise be prepared to pay rapidly rising prices.

Looks like this is now happening as was forecast back then.

BTC >= 10,000

ETH >= 300

Zuckcoin was the catalyst, Carney lit the fuse...

Quote

In wholesale markets, consortia of broker dealers are working to develop settlement systems using distributed ledger technology that could overhaul how markets operate. These consortia, such as USC, propose to issue digital tokens that are fully backed by central bank money, allowing instant settlement. This could also plug into ‘tokenised assets’ – conventional securities also represented on blockchain—and smart contracts. This can drive efficiency and resilience in operational processes and reduce counterparty risks in the system, unlocking billions of pounds in capital and liquidity that can be put to more productive uses.

The potential transformation in retail payments is even more fundamental.

Earlier this week, a cooperative of technology companies proposed a new payments infrastructure based on an international stablecoin – Libra. Libra would be backed by reserve assets in a basket of currencies including sterling. It could be exchanged between users on messaging platforms and with participating retailers. As designed, Libra may substantially improve financial inclusion and dramatically lower the costs of domestic and cross border payments.

The Bank of England approaches Libra with an open mind but not an open door. Unlike social media for which standards and regulations are being debated well after they have been adopted by billions of users, the terms of engagement for innovations such as Libra must be adopted in advance of any launch.

Libra, if it achieves its ambitions, would be systemically important. As such it would have to meet the highest standards of prudential regulation and consumer protection. It must address issues ranging from anti-money laundering to data protection to operational resilience. Libra must also be a pro-competitive, open platform that new users can join on equal terms. In addition, authorities will need to consider carefully the implications of Libra for monetary and financial stability. Our citizens deserve no less.

Leveraging our position at the heart of the international financial system and one of the world’s largest fintech hubs, the Bank of England will help lead the way on these issues at the G7, G20, the FSB, BIS and IMF.

Whatever the fate of Libra, its creation underscores the imperative of transforming payments. The Bank’s strategy to open access to a wide range of payment solutions combined with appropriate regulatory oversight of them maximises the likelihood that the payments revolution will meet the demands of the new economy and the needs of all our citizens.

Hypothesis: US Dollar (and maybe EUR) will commence inflation (faster than usual) to bail out the Eurozone debt. Perhaps lasting for around a year, maybe 2.

But I think the Fed will be able to avoid hyperinflation. The US economy is fundamentally stronger and sounder than the majority of the rest of the world. The banking cartel will sacrifice dollar strength in order to keep their other major currency, the Euro, from being destroyed by a catastrophic debt collapse coming later this year.

Anecdotal evidence for this, are the long-term downtrends in the banking stocks of England. We also have known for some time that Deutsche Bank is insolvent. Draghi's statements this week supports this theory. The Eurozone has clearly failed in its recovery from the 2008-2009 crises despite very accommodative monetary policy. This in contrast to the resurgent and resilient US economy.

It may be unwise to short the US stocks, if the inflation will run for some time. But it will probably be safer to short UK/Euro stocks, tempered by the fact that ECB may also commence inflation.

Needless to say it will be safe to hold onto precious metals and perhaps increasingly, cryptos. A rising gold price may be one mechanism the ECB uses to purchase debt given its large gold holdings.

Another play would be to short the Dollar index. It seems to be just beginning to tip over on the monthly. But if Draghi is signalling that he will simultaneously inflate the Euro, then that may be a limited play. Maybe long Cable only - people have been overly bearish on Sterling due to the Brexit fiasco but it will turn out to have been a storm in a teacup (we hope, haha). I do not believe that Sterling will be at all-time lows around the 31 October when we are due to leave the EU.

Thoughts? opinions? Is this a sound, plausible analysis? I'm aware of the perils of being an armchair economist and pontificating, but it's important to conjecture what may be a major macro factor coming into play.

1.79. Moving into the zone where we're looking for major shorts to cover.

Spy set to open all time high 296... Slack IPO today.

Iran ready for war with US.

Nearing the time again to buy puts? Maybe tomorrow or next week.

Of course there is a risk it runs on higher for a little while... in that case 320-30 could be a suitable resistance.

Interesting. We've reached 1.69 and gold just broke 1360 for the first time since April 2018.

I only sold off 35% of my stack during this rise so bring it on!

Haha - is that faint praise for MUX? It seems destined to range between 1.5 and 1.7 for now, unless gold breaks 1370, which would be a major event. Also perhaps the selling was overdone previously vs gdxj.

Crappy stock really. I added some at 1.3 but not hoping for much, unless gold really gets going.

The first Fed cut this year should trigger the huge breakout. Should arrive in July or latest September.

===== (following added in edit by Dr.B):

TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2 : Acore : Fringe :

 :  :  :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d:  10d 5d / SLV-lv

=====

This stock should blast beyond 6 in this cycle.

=====

Why not!  / following added by DrB. in edit:

pg13 / Yr.End 12/31: C$2.82: US$2.055 -was 0.16% of $1281 Gold // TPRFF is $2.42, 0.19% of $1277.6 Gold at 22-Apr.19

GCM (in US$) found support at the old high of 7.8% of GDXJ, has rally to virtually 10%, near High of 10.5%

pg13 / Yr.End 12/31: C$2.82, $2.055 - & $1281 Gold price (0.16%), C$Gold was C$1715 (0.164%)

Update: 4/22/19:  C$3.23 v.$2.82 +14.5% in 2019 / 2-yr : 1-yr. Vs 200d : 377d.ma : 610d : 987d. : Mkt.Depth : SH-gcm :

Vs. GDXJ: $29.55 vs. $30.22 : - 2.22%

Date------- : GCM.t: CAD$: $Price: ShOS MktVal : 8%-Debs: Date: Cash: EntValue / $Gold : OZ's/ Prd. years.: 221wt x12.2M
08/10/18: $2.44 x.761= $1.857 48.2M $89.5M: $98.0M: Est.: $28.0: $159.5M /$1219: 131k/200: 0.660: $0.23=$2.81M
10/02/18: $2.40 x.780= $1.872 48.2M $90.2M: $93.1M: Est.: $28.0: $155.3M /$1204: 129k/212: 0.609: $0.19=$2.31M
12/31/18: $2.82 x.733= $2.067 48.2M $99.6M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $154.0M /$1281: 120k/217: 0.554: $0.61=$7.44M
01/03/19: $3.18 x.741= $2.356 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1295: 129k/217: 0.594: $0.97=$11.8M
01/04/19: $3.15 x.747= $2.353 48.2M $113.M: $83.4M: 12/31 $29? $167.0M /$1284: 130k/217: 0.599: $0.94=$11.5M
02/19/19: $4.42 x.757= $3.340 48.2M $161.M: $80.0 E : 02/?? $30? $211.0M /$1350: 156K/217: 0.720: $1.82=$22.2M
03/15/19: $3.71 x.750= $2.782 48.2M $134.M: $100.E*: 03/?? $50? $184.0M /$1296: 142k/223: 0.637: $1.41=$17.2M
04/22/19: $3.23 x.749= $2.420 48.2M $117.M: $98.5M : 04/30 $50? $165.5M/$1278: 129k/226: 0.573: $1.41=$9.32M

Something to bear in mind.

The Bond Market Rubicon Has Been Crossed

Yield curve inversion will probably lead to cut in Fed rates very soon.

Traders in the foreign-exchange market have suffered an epic slump, losing money in each of the past four years, and seven out of the past eight, as measured by the Citi Parker Global Currency Index.

Haha. FX is hard.