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Oil Man

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About Oil Man

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  1. The "error" which many countries in the "West" will make is to again tax (as they did during the 1970's) the hard working decent law abiding financial middle class. A country without a middle class is utterly doomed. Everything reverts to the lowest common denominator.
  2. The above story is simply reflective of the first phase of the forthcoming tax grab which will hit us all. Governments will instruct their revenue generation services to go for for the easy targets - those the voters will be jealous toward - during these difficult times. When exhausted taxes will rise to keep the ponzi going but all under the guise of "fairness" and "equality" For the property and land owners: Just wait for the "Land Value Tax". Local municipalities/authorities are running out of cash fast (mainly keeping their public sector pensions funded). Too bad if you are in a big/valuable property with little disposable income, you will be forced to sell. There really are tough times around the corner.
  3. (FROM THE UK): One day soon, the "financial middle class" will awake to realise that they have had their "wealth" "stolen", with little if any guarantee of a living allowance pension in old age, children who cannot afford to downpay the deposit for a mortgage, an uneducated workforce, a diminishing workforce with lower real take home pay, higher unemployment, less job security, higher tax on everything, less accountability from the politicians at all levels. Until that time we will have more of the same. The rich growing richer the poor remaining poor but growing in numbers sucked in by the vortex of theft via taxation and inflation. It is very gloomy. Option 1 - Emigrate with a skill set and languages Option 2 - Stay and fight but it is the Alamo here in the UK. The system is so broken it is hard to know where to begin. The electorate didn't fully believe Cameron and his Conservatives thus the Coalition They were proved correct.
  4. Dr B - Oh how I want to agree with your sentiment and yes I agree in principle to all your arguments. BUT the reality is that foreign buyers are buying everything in central London and - sight unseen! The pound is soooooo weak. Outside this niche area out in the 'burbs they are holding strong. Not necessarily going up. The smaller units in nicer areas are being lifted fast by BTL (amateurs). Good way to avoid inheritance tax - pay cash and put in childrens name. Take out a mortgage on the main parental dwelling and die with IHT below the threshold also avoiding means testing for old age care. Clever really as the tax is so skewered toward home ownership. Madness really. There are no shortage of tenants (not necessarily AAA rated) Further away from the areas of work a plenty I cannot comment on, but would tend to believe they will fall out of bed value wise. Here's a quick anecdotal story - today au pair's car had a flat tyre. Changed to find the spare as bald as a coot. Went ot local town to have a fix and a new. Out of 8 tyre centres , one was open.They had a 2 1/2 hr wait. Walked around prosperous market town I know well. 1/3 shops open and each one booming. 2/3rds closed for Sunday or permenantly out of business. What struck me was not the lack of potential shoppers but the sheer bloody idleness of the British. Noone could be bothered to work because their employers are in a comfort zone. The tyre guys and I laughed our heads off. They were happy and worked like hell. Good for them. You want to make money? Easy, provide a service. Be nice to the customer. You will not fail provided you open when the customer wants you to be. Back to houses. There is a shortage for those who don't have the money. There is no shortage of units for rent. Windows of estate agents full of for sale signs. Prices may be ambitious but they are there. Moral of anecdotal story - too many still in a comfort zone. Question is how much longer? But as much as I want to agree with you Dr B I still believe eeverything will tick over whilst interest rates stay low. However, perhaps when the last bear turns bull, then the market will dump!
  5. Personally been bearish since '05. Every indicator suggests residential property ought to fall out of bed. It isn't happening. Yes the market has flatl lined but still there are buyers out there in the UK. Vendors ask silly prices and there has been a pick up in transactions in the South East of the UK. Sure there are foreign buyers purchasing sight unseen in central London with rental demand and prices on the increase. We will need to wait and see what the increase in VAT to 20% does on Jan 1 2011. There are additional tax (direct and indirect) increases during 2011 formulated by the Coalition and previous Labour Govt. Until interest rates increase I would suggest we will see a longer flat line. Death and Divorce will see a trickle of property on the mkt. For those wanting to move the Stap Duty is onerous. Better to stay put, expand if possible and pull up the drawbridge and try and pay off debt. This is what I believe is happening. Everyone waiting for the rainy day to end. The demand of the future will be small flats or converted houses into flats. The UK is now so expensive and the aged now so poor the future will be to live near public transport, a shop, a safe area, a good hospital, parking place for visitor and/or owner, low council tax, well insulated, cheap to run etc etc. If you want to go long residential property in the UK use the above formula. Otherwise those earning sterling, paying tax, save your money for retirement. You're going to need it.