God Bear

Hello Peak Debt

I understand now. I thought you meant something different when you wrote I thought ' fall out' would mean 'removed'. i.e. we are looking at Feb 2010 Anyway, I think it’s fair to say the Halifax figures at the backend of 2009 were surprisingly high. This was possibly caused by the Stamp Duty holiday, but at the same time it could also have been caused by the mix adjustment method used by Halifax. Given that we don’t actually see the ‘mix’ we can’t verify that the method is being applied properly. This means that Halifax could* adjust the mix to give them the best Christmas bonuses. Don’t be surprised to see some shockingly high figures again. * In theory only. I’d never accuse them of actually tweaking the figures to suit their bonus requirements.

I believe you have misunderstood by 180 degrees. In Feb 2011, the three bigger numbers fall out as you have pointed out. However, this give us the smaller Feb 2010 figure for our new YoY calculation. This plays in to the hands of the housing bulls. Apologies in advance if it is ME who has misunderstood by a number of degrees and I will be grateful if you could point this out to me.

I believe you have made an error. The 2 quotes I have picked out below are not consistent. How can a higher MoM make the YoY smaller? Apologies in advance if it is ME who has made the error and I will be grateful if you could point this out to me. i.e. If MoM = 0%, YoY will be below 1% i.e if Mom = 0.5%, YoY will be below 0%