on your chart, you've drawn the linear regression line and the stdev lines above and below. i get that. i see that on this chart in the august of 2011 the price touches the stdev above the mean. my problem in understanding your point is that the regression line (and the stdev lines) are derived from data spanning 3 years to the present day ie, includes a great deal of data that did not exist in the august of 2011.
what i am trying to ask is whether or not you are talking about the price in august 2011 being 1 std dev above the regression line on a chart comprised from data three years up to august 2011, rather than to the present day.