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About Riser

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  1. Riser

    The Oil and Energy Price Thread

    Seriously considering buying OILB the Brent Crude ETF http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=9520234 I feel confident Oil could be back up past $60 later this year and will see $100 at some time in the next 2-3 Years. Thinking of trying the ETF as have become fed up with the time erosion of Warrants. Have heard some reports that the Saudi's have threatened to flood the market if the US pull out of Iraq early although I believe they are running near capacity already. Anyone think Oil will go down further or are aware of any other oil ETFs.
  2. http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27509
  3. Caledon is Back - Trading up 28% 7.6p
  4. Spotted this on Kitco - COMEX increased holdings from 104 million to 160 million Oz overnight - Anyone know what happened ?? Silver Warehouse Stocks
  5. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Shirley Williams said on Question Time last night that during a visit to America last week she became aware of a large element in congress who thought an attack on Iran was inevitable. One expert she spoke to said the chances of there NOT being and attack on Iran to destroy their nuclear capability was 3:1. Despite a body advising that it would take at least five years for Iran to pose a realistic threat she formed the opinion that things were moving much faster than that and if there was no dialogue directly between Iran and the States things could move very quickly. She said that comments by Condelisa Rice a couple of months ago where she defended the right of Bush to authorise an attack on another country without consulting Congress were deeply concerning. The prospect of an attack on Iran chilled her to the bone as it presented the biggest risk to world stability and could easily result in a route of UK and US forces in Iraq should they be targeted directly by Iranian military. Shirley Williams must be really concerned about developments in the US for her to divulge such sensitive information on a popular show such as Question Time. The US and UK spin machines must be blowing a gasket trying to paint a rosy picture of current events, when the truth comes out it could be explosive for gold.
  6. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    I read a pdf report recently that argued central banks were not concerned about the actual price at which they sell gold due to the way it is managed by their accountants. Now that investors own more gold than the central banks does this mean the balance of power has changed and we may start to see increased volatility in the gold market as price sensitive investors trade more frequently than the banks. Another key point is that the central banks have traditionally been bearish on gold possibly timing their sell offs to contain the gold price whenever possible, investors will have taken active steps to buy into gold so by default will tend to have a more optimistic outlook which should help push prices higher.
  7. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Is that you as a guest again Frizzers? Gold certainly got hit Yesterday but there still appeared to be some support from Asia last night which should build in the next couple of months. Fundermentals for the gold bull are still in place mid to long term nothing has changed: 1. Oil was at $80 only a couple of months ago it was around $60 this time last year as the bull was raging as we have seen before oil can add $20 over just a couple of weeks and at $60 downside is minimal as OPEC members get twitchy and threaten to cut supplies. 2. The Dollar still has to carry a massive defecit with the risk of a possible default its only a matter of time before it has a crisis 3. Inflation has not gone away Money supply here in the UK is running over 13% while in the States its so high that they have stopped publishing the M3 figures. 4. Gold and Silver ETFs are starting to reach critical mass putting power into the hands of the people and away from the market manipulators 5. Central banks fell 20% short of selling their quota under the Washington agreement before September 27 2006 despite sales of three times average in September which saw prices pulled back below $600 6. Barclays SLV ETF have asked for permission to double their holdings to around $300 million Oz of real (allocated) silver which is more than would appear to be available Today on the worlds markets. Note: real not paper silver which has been leased over and over again to manipulate the markets in the past. 7. Commentators talk of the gold bubble bursting but that wasn't a bubble, that was only the first stirrings of the gold bull, at least I hope so
  8. Looks like the silver ETF has now almost sold all of Buffets silver and is asking for permission to start chomping a further 152 million Oz directly from the Silver market. Problem is there are only 105 million Oz remaining in the COMEX Warehouse ( http://www.nymex.com/sil_fut_wareho.aspx )will the shareholders of the SLV ETF end up holding all the available bullion silver ? and if so what price silver then ? http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....0&hl=silver Thanks to mab (ADVFN)for the link: http://www.jsmineset.com/ Posted On: Monday, October 02, 2006, 2:08:00 PM EST In The News Today Author: Jim Sinclair Jim Sinclair’s Commentary A gift for the silver gang. Barclays files to add shares to silver ETF NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Barclays Global Investors on Monday said it had filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to register 15.2 million new shares of the iShares Silver Trust , which has proven popular with investors as a silver play this year. "It provides us with flexibility," said Barclays spokeswoman Christine Hudacko. The registration would almost double the amount that could potentially be invested in the trust to 32 million shares. iShares Silver Trust is traded on the American Stock Exchange. Barclays launched the exchange traded fund in April with a cap of about 16.8 million iShares available for investors. "We are registering additional shares. That does not mean the trust is automatically going to buy additional metal," Hudacko said, adding that the SEC requires that a ceiling be established for the size of the fund. The ETF is backed by silver bullion stored in vaults in allocated accounts. Each share is worth 10 ounces of silver, meaning that, fully subscribed, it could now hold 320 million ounces, an increase of 152 million. Investors must buy the shares before the trust administrators will buy the bullion to back it. ---------------------------------------------------------
  9. It looks as though massive uplegs only occur every two years so the next rally is due to be a consolidation rally which may see gold drop back around current levels $600 next Summer before a big rally late next Year. This suggest that this consolidation rally may be better traded looking to buy gold stocks when the HUI hits 255 in the next few weeks then attempting to sell at the peak around April.
  10. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Looking at the GCZ06 Gold chart it looks as though $560 has provided key support three times since Feb and this time may be critical as it will coincide with the 300 day MA.
  11. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The fall stinks of central bank selling, back in August they still has around 100 tons sitting in their vaults which they could sell before reaching the limits of the Washington agreement, their gentlemans agreement not to sell more than 500 tons of gold per year. The bosses of the Central banks are having their annual conference next week and gold was always going to be on the agenda, the two european central banks who sold to drive the price down this week have ensured that any bosses considering increasing rather than decreasing their gold holdings will need to think again. The current falls are due to a combination of central bank selling combined with falling energy prices thanks to the US holding back on attacking Iran until the current run of elections are out of the way. Short term gold will now have to contend with investors looking to drive it further below the 200 day moving average but the longer term fundamentals which drove the recent gold bull are still there. Guess its all eyes on NY this afternoon I suspect the support mentioned by Barclays will prove just too tempting and we may see $550 for a while before a rally after the central banks meeting which may pick up pace after the US elections are out of the way and Bush feels able to let his Rottweilers out again. Buy now for gold relief rally next week
  12. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The triangular or pennant fomation is a consolidation pattern the potential upside target is usually equivelent to the height of the first leg of the pattern which shoudl see gold well above $700 although we are currenlty testing support at the lower side of the patten. Gold weakness temporary
  13. Todays response from iShares suggests to me that the limit is not fixed in stone it only represents the limit of silver thay are able to draw down via the agreement I suspect they have had with Buffet. Once that limit is reached they will start buying from COMEX, providing a mechanism for the big players to feed on the small silver market and acheive something that Buffet could not acheive on his own. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommel032106.html
  14. Have now received reply from iShares, in response to my question about what iShares are planning to do once the remains SLV shares are sold. It sounds to me that once the remaining 10 million Oz left for sale in the silver ETF have been sold, probably in the next three weeks, the ETF will start purchasing silver on the COMEX to meet the demand it has generated from large players such as pension funds and the like. If we assume a continuing demand of around 5 million Oz per week we could see the 110 million Oz of silver available for sale on the COMEX eaten up in around 6 months !!!
  15. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    From Todays MoneyMorning www.moneyweek.com - Sept 26 could be an interesting day for gold