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Riser

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Everything posted by Riser

  1. Riser

    The Oil and Energy Price Thread

    Seriously considering buying OILB the Brent Crude ETF http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=9520234 I feel confident Oil could be back up past $60 later this year and will see $100 at some time in the next 2-3 Years. Thinking of trying the ETF as have become fed up with the time erosion of Warrants. Have heard some reports that the Saudi's have threatened to flood the market if the US pull out of Iraq early although I believe they are running near capacity already. Anyone think Oil will go down further or are aware of any other oil ETFs.
  2. Interesting post on Kitco. The Silver ETF is unable to buy anymore Silver ------------------------------------- Got Gold? 05-18-2006 07:29 PM The Silver ETF is unable to buy anymore Silver NYMEX Total Registered 72,432,321 http://www.nymex.com/sil_fut_wareho.aspx iShares Ounces of Silver in Trust 69,992,918 http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/de...equestid=118245 Its over folks. No more Silver is left at Comex. Unless we see higher prices. And we're talking only 3 million more. ----------------------------------------------------- THE MYSTERY OF THE SILVER ETF We have seen the SLV ETF increase their silver holdings by 50 million Oz since their launch a couple of weeks age. My understanding is that before the ETF the total amount on COMEX was around 130 million Oz and Warren Buffet held around 130 million Oz which he has since disposed of (possibly under duress). I suspect Buffet actually agreed to sell his silver to the Barclays ETF for a fixed price on a draw down basis as the ETF grew ensuring the ETF could function with some independance from COMEX manipulation. The main point is that if the ETF continues to buy ata rate of 50 - 100 million Oz per month it would eat up the words entire supply ofavailable silverwithin the next couple of months !! Date Total Ounces of Silver in the Trust 04/28/2006 20999768.8 05/01/2006 20999768.8 05/02/2006 31998959.2 05/03/2006 38498421 05/04/2006 41998082.9 05/05/2006 43997857.7 05/08/2006 48497173.7 05/09/2006 53996254.1 05/10/2006 58495445 05/11/2006 61994777.9 05/12/2006 64994165.9 05/15/2006 68993200.3 05/16/2006 68993200.3 05/17/2006 69992917.7 I plan on buying some SD35 Silver calls in the next few days. Any corrections to my assumptions or comments welcome.
  3. http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27509
  4. Caledon is Back - Trading up 28% 7.6p
  5. Spotted this on Kitco - COMEX increased holdings from 104 million to 160 million Oz overnight - Anyone know what happened ?? Silver Warehouse Stocks
  6. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Shirley Williams said on Question Time last night that during a visit to America last week she became aware of a large element in congress who thought an attack on Iran was inevitable. One expert she spoke to said the chances of there NOT being and attack on Iran to destroy their nuclear capability was 3:1. Despite a body advising that it would take at least five years for Iran to pose a realistic threat she formed the opinion that things were moving much faster than that and if there was no dialogue directly between Iran and the States things could move very quickly. She said that comments by Condelisa Rice a couple of months ago where she defended the right of Bush to authorise an attack on another country without consulting Congress were deeply concerning. The prospect of an attack on Iran chilled her to the bone as it presented the biggest risk to world stability and could easily result in a route of UK and US forces in Iraq should they be targeted directly by Iranian military. Shirley Williams must be really concerned about developments in the US for her to divulge such sensitive information on a popular show such as Question Time. The US and UK spin machines must be blowing a gasket trying to paint a rosy picture of current events, when the truth comes out it could be explosive for gold.
  7. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    I read a pdf report recently that argued central banks were not concerned about the actual price at which they sell gold due to the way it is managed by their accountants. Now that investors own more gold than the central banks does this mean the balance of power has changed and we may start to see increased volatility in the gold market as price sensitive investors trade more frequently than the banks. Another key point is that the central banks have traditionally been bearish on gold possibly timing their sell offs to contain the gold price whenever possible, investors will have taken active steps to buy into gold so by default will tend to have a more optimistic outlook which should help push prices higher.
  8. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Is that you as a guest again Frizzers? Gold certainly got hit Yesterday but there still appeared to be some support from Asia last night which should build in the next couple of months. Fundermentals for the gold bull are still in place mid to long term nothing has changed: 1. Oil was at $80 only a couple of months ago it was around $60 this time last year as the bull was raging as we have seen before oil can add $20 over just a couple of weeks and at $60 downside is minimal as OPEC members get twitchy and threaten to cut supplies. 2. The Dollar still has to carry a massive defecit with the risk of a possible default its only a matter of time before it has a crisis 3. Inflation has not gone away Money supply here in the UK is running over 13% while in the States its so high that they have stopped publishing the M3 figures. 4. Gold and Silver ETFs are starting to reach critical mass putting power into the hands of the people and away from the market manipulators 5. Central banks fell 20% short of selling their quota under the Washington agreement before September 27 2006 despite sales of three times average in September which saw prices pulled back below $600 6. Barclays SLV ETF have asked for permission to double their holdings to around $300 million Oz of real (allocated) silver which is more than would appear to be available Today on the worlds markets. Note: real not paper silver which has been leased over and over again to manipulate the markets in the past. 7. Commentators talk of the gold bubble bursting but that wasn't a bubble, that was only the first stirrings of the gold bull, at least I hope so
  9. Looks like the silver ETF has now almost sold all of Buffets silver and is asking for permission to start chomping a further 152 million Oz directly from the Silver market. Problem is there are only 105 million Oz remaining in the COMEX Warehouse ( http://www.nymex.com/sil_fut_wareho.aspx )will the shareholders of the SLV ETF end up holding all the available bullion silver ? and if so what price silver then ? http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....0&hl=silver Thanks to mab (ADVFN)for the link: http://www.jsmineset.com/ Posted On: Monday, October 02, 2006, 2:08:00 PM EST In The News Today Author: Jim Sinclair Jim Sinclair’s Commentary A gift for the silver gang. Barclays files to add shares to silver ETF NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Barclays Global Investors on Monday said it had filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to register 15.2 million new shares of the iShares Silver Trust , which has proven popular with investors as a silver play this year. "It provides us with flexibility," said Barclays spokeswoman Christine Hudacko. The registration would almost double the amount that could potentially be invested in the trust to 32 million shares. iShares Silver Trust is traded on the American Stock Exchange. Barclays launched the exchange traded fund in April with a cap of about 16.8 million iShares available for investors. "We are registering additional shares. That does not mean the trust is automatically going to buy additional metal," Hudacko said, adding that the SEC requires that a ceiling be established for the size of the fund. The ETF is backed by silver bullion stored in vaults in allocated accounts. Each share is worth 10 ounces of silver, meaning that, fully subscribed, it could now hold 320 million ounces, an increase of 152 million. Investors must buy the shares before the trust administrators will buy the bullion to back it. ---------------------------------------------------------
  10. It looks as though massive uplegs only occur every two years so the next rally is due to be a consolidation rally which may see gold drop back around current levels $600 next Summer before a big rally late next Year. This suggest that this consolidation rally may be better traded looking to buy gold stocks when the HUI hits 255 in the next few weeks then attempting to sell at the peak around April.
  11. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Looking at the GCZ06 Gold chart it looks as though $560 has provided key support three times since Feb and this time may be critical as it will coincide with the 300 day MA.
  12. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The fall stinks of central bank selling, back in August they still has around 100 tons sitting in their vaults which they could sell before reaching the limits of the Washington agreement, their gentlemans agreement not to sell more than 500 tons of gold per year. The bosses of the Central banks are having their annual conference next week and gold was always going to be on the agenda, the two european central banks who sold to drive the price down this week have ensured that any bosses considering increasing rather than decreasing their gold holdings will need to think again. The current falls are due to a combination of central bank selling combined with falling energy prices thanks to the US holding back on attacking Iran until the current run of elections are out of the way. Short term gold will now have to contend with investors looking to drive it further below the 200 day moving average but the longer term fundamentals which drove the recent gold bull are still there. Guess its all eyes on NY this afternoon I suspect the support mentioned by Barclays will prove just too tempting and we may see $550 for a while before a rally after the central banks meeting which may pick up pace after the US elections are out of the way and Bush feels able to let his Rottweilers out again. Buy now for gold relief rally next week
  13. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    The triangular or pennant fomation is a consolidation pattern the potential upside target is usually equivelent to the height of the first leg of the pattern which shoudl see gold well above $700 although we are currenlty testing support at the lower side of the patten. Gold weakness temporary
  14. Todays response from iShares suggests to me that the limit is not fixed in stone it only represents the limit of silver thay are able to draw down via the agreement I suspect they have had with Buffet. Once that limit is reached they will start buying from COMEX, providing a mechanism for the big players to feed on the small silver market and acheive something that Buffet could not acheive on his own. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommel032106.html
  15. Have now received reply from iShares, in response to my question about what iShares are planning to do once the remains SLV shares are sold. It sounds to me that once the remaining 10 million Oz left for sale in the silver ETF have been sold, probably in the next three weeks, the ETF will start purchasing silver on the COMEX to meet the demand it has generated from large players such as pension funds and the like. If we assume a continuing demand of around 5 million Oz per week we could see the 110 million Oz of silver available for sale on the COMEX eaten up in around 6 months !!!
  16. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    From Todays MoneyMorning www.moneyweek.com - Sept 26 could be an interesting day for gold
  17. Maybe they could lease out some of the empty space in Fort Knox
  18. Profile as of 08/30/2006 (Most recent baskets) Total Net Assets $1,226,025,928 Ounces of Silver in Trust 100,368,644 Shares Outstanding 10,050,000 Tonnes of Silver in Trust 3,121.8 http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/detail.jh...equestid=157286 SLV now holds over 100 million Oz wite just 10 million Oz outstanding - what happens once they reach that limit ?
  19. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Many suspect that the FEDs plan is to fiddle the CPI data keeping it down so as not to spark wage claims while printing billions of Dollars to increase the money supply. Berenke has already let slip that he is prepared to drop money from helecopters rather than allow deflation of te US economy and the FEDs decision not to stop publishing the M3 money supplydata is further evidence of their intentions. Many investors may see last months low inflation data as confirmation that Helecopter Ben's plans are about to kick into action.
  20. Could the ETFs provide an explanation why the current gold rally has not been reflected in the price of mining stocks ? The Daily Resource 7/14/06: SLV holdings now 91,417,377 Oz
  21. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    BOJ have raised rates to 0.25% overnight will this signal a short term top for gold?. Speculation about a squeeze on global money supply sent gold and the markets into a tail spin a couple of months ago, this time it’s for real. http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...&ID=5866650 It oil weakens we may see gold fall for a while until hurricane season and market forces push oil above $80 which combined with a falling dollar should see gold retest $750 by September. Tempted to sell some of my oil gold and silver calls here but may just sit back and tough out any dip for a couple of months as there is always the chance that Iran will hit centre stage. There is a voice in my head that tells me Israel’s recent attacks are designed to provoke a reaction that will e used an excuse for an attack on Iran. [EDIT] The pieces continue to fall into place Iran warns Israel not to attack Syria
  22. IShares silver ETF (SLV) have now increased their holdings by another 15 million Oz to 87 million Oz since my first post last month. Silver Trust (SLV) Question is how much more do they need to buy before the market picks up on the fact that there is only a limited amount of silver left. What will be the tipping point signalling the start of a silver bubble where silver breaks its link with gold?
  23. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Opps - confusion watching price in both $ and £ currently £336 UAE Central Bank set to enter the gold market I wonder if the new UAE gold market will see a flow of Arab money after the recent falls in the arab stock markets. It has also long being rumoured that many of the US treasuries purchased through the UK are actually from Arab counteries, as confidence if the Dollar collapses could this money also start to find a home in gold ?
  24. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Gold up to $319 last night in Asia, the last rally was accompanied by strong overnight trading I remember waking up every morning to see the price up $5-10, great start to the day I know many ignore overnight prices and focus just on the NY market but I wonder if there is a rellationship between the strength of the over night price and next day NY prices. Does anyone have a link to historical asian gold prices most of the historic data I have is based on NY. TIA
  25. Riser

    Gold: the Bull's thread

    Dr Bubb, Are you selling into this rally or do you think we could see more upside from here? I think this rally is being driven by a number of factors Berenke suggesting future US IR increases may be delayed for a while while he ramps up the printing presses and starts living upto his name of Helicopter Ben. Rising oil prices on the back of tensions caused by Isreal invading Gaza Sentiment as investors looking to buy back into gold start to gain confidence that this is near the bottom of the current correction. None of these factors look like they are going to go away anytime soon. On the bearish side its still a long way to September and many expect one final correction which will offer a better buying opportunity The recent pull back showed that the central banks are still able to control the price of gold and silver in the short term, many investors may feel you can't win a rigged game. The 20% drop from the peak may have changed sentiment that the current gold bull is unstopable. Reports of iminent rate rises in Japan are still rumbling on which could reduce liquidity I am long with allocated gold and silver and Dec06 and June07 CFD calls and am happy to ride out any summmer dip before we move towards $800 gold by year end and hopefully $20 silver by next Summer.
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