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Euro Chocozone Buyer

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  1. there are 2 recent videos about the secondary by Peter from the Property Club Peter is a cheapskate... and he says BGC flat prices are coming down because of oversupply. 2/ Manila Flood of Condos for Sale (in BGC?)
  2. https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/04/22/1911383/positive-carry-steadies-philippine-peso Based on the chart below, technical analysis points to the peso ranging between 51.50 and 53.50. A break below 51.50, however, would lead to a possible move towards the 50-level. Read more at https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/04/22/1911383/positive-carry-steadies-philippine-peso#i1UpUhj1aSy25bpg.99
  3. https://www.bworldonline.com/managing-solvency-risk-from-boom-of-phl-real-estate-sector/ More warnings: "POGO, relying on overseas demand for online gaming, may be subject to disruption if foreign governments begin regulating the players and facilities or even restricting capital flows into this business. More directly, if the large number of foreign workers in POGO and other sectors are prohibited from working in the Philippines, then the residential property market would lose a significant pool of clients. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1105494/new-policy-on-foreign-workers-out-by-may-1?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1Kz-sCOs2ZLwRXQ-RmrhHFpYjj7BiUDhF-rCgZSlcHM5QSBX582LRw1cs#Echobox=1554932003
  4. This guy seems to confirm. Owning Real Estate in the Philippines is not necessarily profitable.
  5. Minute 4.55 Excerpt: - As far as appreciation, don't expect it to appreciate. Do not do it as an investment thinking, thinking... this is not California. If you're lucky, if you're extremely lucky, and you decide to sell it within 5 years, you'll either break even OR only lose maybe 20pct of what you bought it for. So that's if you are lucky. And what I see, and I was a licensed realtor and real estate agent in California, ... it is still a renters market. THERE ARE MORE UNITS AVAILABLE THAN THERE ARE RENTERS. ... i see rents getting cheaper in the metropolian areas. End of Excerpt. He was based in Cebu, -- Cebu has always been weaker because there is less inflow of foreign investment IMO. Manila is the gorilla. Because what I see and have seen in the Bay Area is the exact opposite of late. Rents have been getting very expensive in that area, despite the supply. (ECB's comment) Rents in Monarch Parksuites, a condo with marble flooring are fetching PHP1400 per square meter. That's what I see on rentpad. Not a guarantee that it will go on but the last years rents have increased significantly over there. There were numerous comments on this video. Many people have seen this video and this is a very popular vlogger. Most people who commented - at least 90pct - agreed with the author, even though there are some who have made significant investments in PH real estate. So most ordinary people prefer to rent. But I agree with him that if you buy from developers today, you're going to lose big time, because secondary market prices is way cheaper now.
  6. https://www.facebook.com/Lauren-Property-Listings-for-Sale-970276926511231/?__tn__=kC-R&eid=ARDaScVNqXnpWRL1OPVJVBOEkfJCiMArxn135hfuy-N-AGw-x1hCvTCBj4hCyAd9i_Sn1J5lGBJ8w574&hc_ref=ARRivMsONEuMvLjO6bGCzJh1rslW4ahO0sfLNyOkMK2HtfPJ_QJTBGVN8c-0CmUD8yc&fref=nf&__xts__[0]=68.ARCbn9cy-UG3-Xf8N6XiApWtqsFXpH59_lJ6f1gLd41xfDYncCNln_WrDYpk5oqbN7hhJJ8Wrk9GtyZVeAMmle3uNjk-TZwUz18FtUeWIhftXhaXDe2Gd_i-2KNUt_qDYYITPXugrM3Vke-M7WLoK_6iJYe0hmcZbUyu1DnBd7GeTz9KJITtZ8_GEkJaOEe2zcEObFNzDkOLyNBlVkIiHRq2jxJUHFBsD9-F-Au1o1gGXtQhinFIqeMu5xWqyOCMVHLgvQSspZARDV3efckbA8SsSdGIdAbxisnz4kEjN6TBdOuwpoIdCvne_Ru4PC4USYWFIsE45a9884hC7vXfVzA It seems PH property is becoming more difficult to acquire for foreigners from PH developers as the above link seems to indicate that all foreign slots for all Megaworld buildings (except Madison) are occupied now so nothing available from the Megaworld. It is the same thing that I read about Avida Southpoint. I believe all foreign slots also gone. So PH property is getting more attractive for foreign buyers. SMDC Sail residences. Just launched. We can just bet on it that within 20-30 days all foreign slots will be gone as well. Just my two cents.
  7. ""However, Lobien cited key risks that may hamper demand. These include higher borrowing rates following the 175-basis point hike in interest rates last year, out of sync supply and demand, and the lack of infrastructure to support property developments"" https://www.manilatimes.net/property-firm-bullish-on-domestic-market/522134/?fbclid=IwAR2wiMDi9j1oPrxrQ9AUj5wW5xWjxQeURTPGdACDTNp_fjiHeRMaInIar3w And another warning. "Out of sync supply and demand" How you can you have a deficit in residential units when you increase its supply 100pct in 2 years??? When you increase the supply this much, there's a bigger risk for "abundance" and "too much supply". A surplus of units and a deficit in buyers/tenants.
  8. https://www.bworldonline.com/why-luxury-condo-prices-continue-to-soar-in-phl/?fbclid=IwAR1dUpQv3tsh0kNvDl1CRYyrr6wsYB1MyJs_0RDLSud2PczaBy7dfA82Ewg “Yes, we look at how expensive it is now but remember how many millionaires, billionaires are being created because of China investing here. I know so many people who have been trying to sell their property for year they couldn’t sell, then all of a sudden the Chinese nationals come here, increase the value of the property and all of a sudden they went from very poor to being millionaires overnight,” Mr. Leechiu told BusinessWorld. (comment: must be PHP billionaires, since we have yet to see the first USD billionaire from this speculation) https://www.manilatimes.net/rising-pogo-demand-to-hike-property-prices/527587/?fbclid=IwAR2PtH0cZ1_UF11sESMts3JpJMLUDMugdk-aDkSJHm-FygTtu1avuSQlrGQ ""LPC President David Leechiu told a news briefing in Makati City on Monday that he was expecting a deficit in condominium units beginning the second semester of the year amid strong demand from property buyers, particularly from mainland Chinese employed by the local POGO business.."" Dr Bubb, how can you have a deficit in condominium units when the supply will almost double in the Bay Area in a few years time, and it is happening now, with approx. 3K to 4K units turned over every quarter since the end of last year and continuing into early 2020??? I thought there would be a deficit in BUYERS, as the few who couldn't get loans would be forced to sell their units at cost or even lower, and drive the overall price lower, but it is not happening. If the deficit will be severe the 2H of 2019, how bad will it be in 2-3 years when the supply increase will be over? And how is SMDC able to sell its SAIL residences at such lofty prices? The supply increase is BRUTAL now. The first prices I have seen are for approximately 10M for a 33sqm unit (SAIL residences), that's close to PHP300K per square meter. They must be targeting "drunken" sailors. When will the madness stop? When will the market run out of "greater fools"???
  9. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-03/peso-beats-asian-peers-in-surprise-win-as-philippine-cpi-eases The new safe haven currency??
  10. https://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/colliers quarterly manila q4 2018 residential.pdf?la=en-gb "" Colliers is revising its forecast of condominium price increase from 2019 to 2021 upward to 5pct yearly from the previous 3pct. "" WOW. There you have it. PHILIPPINE REAL ESTATE WILL NEVER GO DOWN IN VALUE.
  11. The entire developed world is now actively "taxing to death" Chinese flight capital. Australia is the latest. Peter from the Property Club has several videos about the dramatic tax increases occurring in AUS/QsLand. For non resident owners 3pct of the value of the homes will be taxed. This is the highest in the world. This will cause a fall in prices, just as the S&L crisis in the early 80s was also partially caused by government policies. 3pct is a lot. You can basically say that the government is nationalizing the rental income. So there you have it. All the - especially English speaking - developed countries have made property ownership a big hassle now. But maybe all the these policies might cause more investment in Philippine real estate.
  12. https://www.olx.ph/item/rush-sale-most-affordable-unit-in-avida-cityflex-bgc-ID8zs4M.html?h=a214f5332c https://www.olx.ph/item/studio-for-sale-in-makati-ID8xKhJ.html Surprise. Surprise. I think both sales are what I call "below the market value". Megaworld one central MAKATI for php125K psm and Avida Cityflex BGC for 130K psm and suddenly -- the ads are gone -- the links no longer work. There is a secondary market in PH real estate. If you drop the asking price below a certain level, buyers will step in, and this proves it. My idea of a normal market price for Megaworld second hand in Makati is around PHP140K to PHP145K psm, that is based on other ads that i have seen posted. For BGC the price is around PHP135K for Avida style buildings. That is my market price. Filipinos will not pay more. But Chinese pay more, far more. Real estate is an "imperfect" market, -- it takes longer for "abnormal" low offers to be absorbed by the market. There are no "market makers" in this market like in the stock markets. So it appears as if there is liquidity in this market.
  13. Hi There is more news about Avida Verge. https://www.facebook.com/AyalaLandInternationalHongKong/ It seems that Avida has developed a new business strategy now that most of its land in BGC has been developed. They are "pumping" this project as a way to get into BGC at a lower cost than the official preselling prices of their existing projects in BGC. Verge is quite expensive, it seems. It looks as if they are charging PHP180K psm. For Boni Shaw area - this price is very high. 4.2M for a 22.80sqm Junior 1 bedroom and 7M for 35sqm 1 bedroom. according to comments posted on SSC - the Verge thread. not cheap. ECB comment. It is quite IRONIC as BGC is on the "verge" of COLLAPSE. Rents have collapsed already but it is capital values which are at risk now due to rising supply, falling rents and rising interest rates. "Rents collapse first", capital values are next. IMO.
  14. 3 property research companies - Colliers, JLL and Knight Santos Frank - and three completely different reports. As usual, KSF is the most bullish amongst all 3. And JLL sees a huge supply increase in Makati in 2020 which Colliers doesn't report. What I find strange in Colliers report is that they don't add the new AIR RES + RISE MAK units in the 2020 new units list for Makati (Maybe because they're not located in Salceldo or Legaspi village). (and thus not in Makati CBD) (Or maybe they have then been given money by their developers friends not report it to not cause a panic amongst property investors???) (Maybe not reporting future events can be profitable?) And then the real shocker: BGC vacancy rate going from 15pct to 16pct. The lower band of rental rates in BGC dropped sharply. From PHP620 per square meter to PHP530 per square meter. That is down 15pct. And a 1pct decline in rental rates for Makati. In terms of rental income, BGC is the first train wreck. Avida is the lower band supplier of buildings in BGC and investors see their projected income decline. It is the same what I see based on data from rentpad from Avida 34th street and Avida Verte. Rental rates are plainly awful. Horrific. I will try to highlight that in the data section at a later point in time but it doesn't look good. http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/philippines/about/media/3q2017_philippine_property_market_reports
  15. Makati is really a "bloodbath" and that will become very clear once you look at the following website https://81property.com/properties/?id=buy It is unclear whether the previously mentioned unit has been sold or not, as yesterdays ad URL is no longer functional, - maybe there is some "negotiation" going on behind the curtain, - but looking at that website you can see that a unit in the Beacon was sold for a mere PHP110,000 per square meter. That happened probably in the secondary market and should further serve as a severe warning that all the hype about rising prices is nothing but "smoke and mirrors" and "hot air". https://81property.com/properties/?id=buy-details&uID=Beacon-4215.16 And that probably indicates that the smart money is leaving and more money is "exiting" Makati. Because no matter how you look at it. The Beacon is a high quality building, yet it cannot fetch even a decent sales price. These examples confirm my thesis that MAKATI is spiraling down and that is even before the huge supply increase starting at the end of next year. Again these prices are UNIMAGINABLE in PASAY. Yet in Makati it is the order of the day. "the mighty MAKATI" has fallen. (out of favor) There is no liquidity left in Makati. There are insufficient "new entrants" who can provide a floor under the secondary market and so investors will be at the mercy of the "unknown". Combine a huge supply increase in 2020 with a - who knows - dramatic decline in the local and international share markets, and you have the recipe for a total collapse. Rents, capital values might decline by 30pct or more in a couple of years from now when "the dust finally settles". I don't believe any of the reports coming out from Colliers. They're all in bed with the major developers. There is no honest system of tracking prices but these little "anecdotal" stories tell the real story and it doesn't look "fine". There are going to be major disappointments and it won't be "pretty".
  16. Hi Your reasoning looks faulty to me. BGC has also welcomed many multinationals and large corporations setting up their new HQ in BGC. The likes of GOOGLE, You tube, Megaworld, DB, Citibank, HSBC and so many others. However, the expected "uptick" in rental prices did not materialize as of today. Why would there be an "uptick" in prices when AFT is completed? It is exactly the same thing that will happen in the "HOT AIR" district of Makati. Why would the outcome be different this time??? Most of the tenants in those buildings will pay the locals just a very small salary. It won't be enough to break the downward spiral in rental prices. The reality is that it is the Chinese who pay and sometimes over pay, and their favorite spot remains the Bay Area. Some of them are now even contemplating setting up factories in PH to avoid the US-China trade sanctions/tariffs. In other words, Makati can become another "pearl harbour". When all these flats will be completed in 2020, it will be a total devastation for existing landlords. Better sell now while the market still "appears to be " reasonably strong.
  17. """ Manila Bay has overtaken Ortigas Center starting 3Q2018 and we expect the reclaimed CBD to overtake other established business hubs such as Makati CBD by 2021. By then, Colliers sees the Bay Area having a total of 29,500 units, higher than Makati CBD’s 28,700. """ http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/philippines/about/media/manila-likely-to-outpace-2017-condominium-sales
  18. MAKATI. The rise and fall of Makati and a lot of "hot air". Voila, to prove my point here is a recent ad that i just saw in olx.ph https://www.olx.ph/item/studio-for-sale-in-makati-ID8xKhJ.html This is a MEGAWORLD studio unit, almost 41square meters that is being sold for PHP5Million. This breaks down to PHP121,000 per square meters. It is a MEGAWORLD condo, so no questions about quality here. Dressed up by OASIS interior design. Such a price is UNIMAGINABLE in PASAY CITY. The secondary market is very strong in PASAY and almost ABSENT in MAKATI. bgc = Better Go to the C(sea) I have heard stories of other people who couldn't resell their preselling condo's in Makati due to the lack of a resale market, and it goes on and on. Megaworld condo's that couldn't even get sold at PHP150K per square meter. In Pasay you get PHP180K per square meters easily. Makati is a lot of hot air and "past glory".
  19. JLL 3Q 2018 Property Market Overview is online. + On page 15 of the report I notice that there will be a huge increase in new supply in PASAY during 4Q2018 and the whole year of 2019, + Taguig city will see a moderate increase during 4Q2018 and a rather large increase in 2019. +BIG SURPRISE. MAKATI will have the biggest supply increase in 2020. That probably has something to do with the RISE and AIR residences In 2020 the supply increase in MAKATI will be twice that of PASAY+TAGUIG combined. Their forecast is for 76,800 new residential units to hit the market FROM 4Q2018 until the end of 2020, of which 23pct will be for MAKATI and 23pct for PASAY city so 17,600 new units will be added in each of both districts 4Q2018 until end of 2020. In terms of rents, surprise here, the median rent is already higher in PASAY city than in MAKATI city. The rent varies between PHP1,100 to PHP1,700 per square meter in PASAY, so the average is PHP1,400 while the rent varies between PHP510 and PHP1900 per square meter in MAKATI district, so the average is PHP1,200. For taguig city the average rent varies between PHP600 and PHP1500, so average PHP1,050. Yes that is what I noticed also. Taguig and BGC are not popular with the Chinese, Chinese like the sea and the area of Makati that borders PASAY, (chino roces). Even buildings like San Lorenzo Place on Chino Roces command higher rents than similar Avida style buildings in BGC. BGC is really having a hard time getting good rents. I see the same thing on rentpad. The asking rents for buildings in BGC are too low, compared to buildings in PASAY/MAKATI. For the moment, BGC is the trainwreck. And they're launching new towers costing PHP300K + per sq meters. ""IN 3Q2018 rental rates in PASAY CITY move up, ranking second to MAKATI city, primarily due to employees of Chinese online gaming companies. Landlords are asking higher rates due to the willingness of Chinese companies to pay at initial asking rates to house their employees" +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ It now remains to be seen how the big supply increase will be absorbed by the market. According to some commentators thousands of condos are needed in the bay area to satisfy the new demand. Everything will -primarily - depend on the growth of online gaming in China. And another warning for MAKATI. Big supply increase is coming in 2020. So the pain will be felt everywhere. BGC rental rates are low but except for a little spike in 2019 relatively little new supply is coming available. Pasay CITY will experience a massive supply increase starting now for 5 quarters, while MAKATI will be hit in 2020. http://www.jll.com.ph/philippines/en-gb/research/122/metro-manila-property-marke-overview-3q2018
  20. It seems to me that mr/dr Bubb has underestimated the potential of this area. """"" According to a report by property firm Santos Knight Frank, residential rental rates in the Bay Area surged by a whopping 62.2% during the 2nd quarter of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. This rate of increase is much faster compared to the other central business districts in Metro Manila. """" https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/212443-how-china-online-gambling-addiction-reshaping-manila
  21. One motivated seller "We are still paying the rest of the loan in the bank.Selling it for a lower price as we cannot manage it anymore" https://www.olx.ph/item/condo-in-breeze-residences-ID8yeIe.html?h=5a12353675
  22. https://philpropertyexpert.com/busting-myth-reselling-used-condo-properties-philippines/
  23. https://www.philstar.com/business/2018/09/30/1855832/property-prices-rise-q2-bsp Excerpts - added by DrB: The central bank’s residential real estate price index (RREPI) rose by 4.8 percent to 117.2 in the second quarter from 111.8 in the same quarter last year. The BSP said the average price of townhouses booked a double-digit increase of 13.3 percent, followed by condominium units with 9.1 percent and single-detached housing units with 0.6 percent. Costs to acquire homes grew faster at 5.1 percent in the National Capital Region (NCR) as higher growth in prices of condominium units and townhouses offset the decline in prices of single-detached houses and duplexes. . . . In the second quarter, the BSP said about seven in 10 or 77.1 percent residential real estate loans were intended for the purchase of new housing units. By type of housing unit, 46.1 percent of residential property loans were for the acquisition of condominium units, followed by single-detached units with 45.6 percent and townhouses with 7.8 percent.
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