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About Walktothewater

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  1. I sold all my position couple weeks ago too https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@walktothewater/bitcoin-where-to-from-here In hindsight, very 'predictable' looking patterns have emerged over the last 4 or so spikes ps: just noticed am using your avatar Dr B, not intentional Lol, just love the coin!
  2. V nice call Dr B. Congrats. I bought some junior shares in April (CNL.TO, MAD.V, PVG.TO, RMX.TO)... seemed like max pessimism.. but was hard to pull the trigger!!
  3. Walktothewater


    Disagree that the bull market"completely destroyed". How do you figure this? Top at 1912 in Sept 11 hasn't even had a 50% correction, so maybe that's what's happening now, we go sub 1000 and find a bottom. IMO either (1) this is a correction within a bull, perhaps 20yrs from 2000/01, or (2) PMs are telegraphing massive deflation across most assets dead ahead (fits in w what the Japanese did on Friday in seemingly panic), or (3) TPTB on cusp of finishing off a total alice in wonderful repression, no markets, complete central planning etc. in which case sell PMs and buy real estate Whilst Im not happy, nor I am impressed at ALL with the chartists and technicians who shit the bed on this (when will they accept the charts are not natural market forces at work?), nothing in the last couple months has shifted me from the (1) camp. I say lets visit 900 and be done with the correction.
  4. Walktothewater


    Likewise, I enjoy your posts GF.
  5. Interesting related story of a Californian couple who found a “buried treasure” of 1,400 or so gold coins on their property. http://www.sfgate.com/business/networth/article/Couple-s-gold-discovery-will-be-taxed-at-top-5271261.php Apparently, it’s an open and shut case for the IRS. The value of the find - conservatively estimated at $10m - is to be counted as taxable ordinary income for tax year 2013/14. So the poor buggers must pay almost 50% income tax! Not only that but they’ll face penalties, interest and perhaps legal action if they don’t settle up by end of tax year on April 15 I bet they wish they just shut the fck up! LOL Even if they argued that the find was a capital gain they'd still be stung for major taxes. This goes back to earlier points, keeping quiet about your physical gold is perhaps the best, and maybe only, way to avoid crucifying taxation. Sell a few ounces here and there to fund small purchases or on-going expenses This also reinforces my view that gold investors are on a collision course with tax authorities one way or another…
  6. Totally agree on Germany. One of the reasons I own a property there.
  7. yes I accept your point Jake. I have many coins myself bought for cash from different places. They have travelled with me all over. No one but me knows I have them. Ive no doubt many people feel "to hell with paying taxes", and plan to sell their physical bit by bit when, where and to whom and never declare it... BUt the problem arises when you have more than just a few ounces and plan to convert these into something substantial when the times comes, perhaps quickly and all at once. Outright purchase of a rental property, a business with premises, capital equipment etc. What then? How are you supposed to convert say 100oz into a property in London or wherever without getting whacked with a 90% "crisis" CGT rate ?? Unless you're willing to implement a total (and quasi legal) lifestyle change - changing tax residency or confusing the tax man with multiple residences all over the world, seeking out "under the radar" buyers of large quantities of physical i.e. effectively "laundering" your metals - I think many investors are gonna get stung at sell time….
  8. There's an 800lb elephant wrt. physical gold and silver ownership that doesn't get much attention, namely the risk of massive capital gains type taxes. It's all well and good gold prices going to the moon, but what if the hammer comes down? For example, a 90% "emergency" capital gains tax, reliefs or allowances that suddenly don't apply, or special transaction fees/taxes putting off potential buyers of your metals? I don't see much popular opposition to this, particularly during a crisis situation. Metals in bailment will be the softest of targets. With capital and currency controls at Customs anyone with coins and small bars trying to sell abroad will be stuffed too. Is this just the (de-bunked) confiscation argument but by different name? Thoughts anyone...
  9. Walktothewater

    James Turk and the Money Bubble

    Living in London and being short property, long gold must be an awful experience. The belly of the beast….
  10. Walktothewater


    Is my point really that hard to see? I am saying that if the TPTB manage to actually properly destroy this bull market -- as would be indicated by sustained lower prices like $11 for silver (as suggested not by me but the OP) -- then I'm suggesting we enter a full on alice-in-wonderland of financial repression. As in a full on police state of capital controls with every price rigged and zero free markets. It s a frightening prospect akin to entering some sort of Dark Ages, but it cant be ruled out IMO
  11. Walktothewater


    A grind down to $800/$11 or worse and staying there for few weeks would represent massive and IMO unrecoverable technical damage. It would be an utter disaster for goldbugs. It would represent destruction of the "fundamental" case for years to come. If it happened the banksters would have other "successes" such as US bonds suppressed below 3% as far as eye can see, capital controls, bail-ins, and complete financial repression - i.e. all the present problems "solved". I'm not sure holding PMs makes any practical sense in that sort of reality. Perhaps you can buy food or stuff locally. But you really would be going hard against the grain of mainstream society. Thus probably best to go with the flow and take on a BTL mortgage etc. I think its unlikely but who knows.
  12. Walktothewater


    $11 would be the end of this bull market. Gold would be what, $800? A few weeks at those sort of prices mean the debt and over-leverage problem is fixed, govts running sustainable budgets and new growth is providing employment and real wage growth. $11 silver would mean a definitive sell on pm's and buy the Dow, fund your pension, take out a big mortgage, etc. There wouldnt be a single mine left in operation anywhere.
  13. I look at this two ways. First, the 'total ounce' view. I want to have a certain quantity of physical for xyz purposes. Say e.g. you want to end up with a min two properties in UK, one to live in and one to rent. If you have zero properties now you'll need 120oz. My research suggests an average UK house will revert to 60oz at some point before the mania top in gold. Second, is the % of assets view. Mine would be considered 'high' for two reasons: One, i consider my base as current assets plus total remaining lifetime net earnings. I believe GF has made this point before. My career is like owning a bond with coupons til I retire, but those are paid out in fiat. Two, forget diversification. As of about 4 years ago my earnings started going exclusively into acquiring cash-flow property (no debt) and precious metals. Month in, month out. I have almost nothing in the stock market bar legacy stuff such as uranium shares etc. I have perhaps 5% in cash at any one time. I also invest heavily in my career and don't hold back owning valuable cashable possessions - vehicles, technical equipment, high end furniture - their lifetime depreciation is way lower than fiat. wttw
  14. Walktothewater

    UK House prices: News & Views

    I’m not sure what your point is. Do you disagree with the data? The facts, not opinions, but the facts are this: Pounds are the currency unit of the UK. A pound from last year buys less stuff today than it did last year and will buy even less next year. I.e. their value is being diminished. Ergo the effect of nominal price falls is magnified by the falling purchasing power of the currency unit. You may indeed be spot on in your analysis of what people think or what interests them or what XYZ means to the average person. But that doesn’t alter the fact that real house prices, that is prices measured in purchasing power adjusted pounds, have fallen more than nominal.
  15. Walktothewater

    UK House prices: News & Views

    Because it's correct, though the 'penny hasnt dropped' yet for the average person. And i doubt it ever will. Joe Soap gets to say yeah my property is still worth X, forgetting of course that X buys far less of everything else then it did before. In hard money terms (gold) property has well and truly crashed. But that's mumbo jumbo talk LOL...