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whoops_apocalypse

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Posts posted by whoops_apocalypse


  1. Actually, I completely agree that the price could be at $10 within six months.

     

    However, we were trying to predict how high this present peak will climb [before it rolls over].

     

    Care to have another go? :rolleyes:

     

    OK, though how high it goes on this occasion doesn't concern me much apart from in deducing how much it will fall once it rolls over.

     

    At a guess, I'd say anywhere between where we are now and $16/oz...

     

    PS. It's not wise to put a timescale on targets, so I won't... :D

     

    It’s more fair to say, “I got it completely wrong”.

     

    I thought they would focus on commercial paper. This would not have pumped the stock markets.

     

    Instead it looks like they have gone for more of the same (Gilts). This will keep pumping the stock markets.

     

    Silver will not go down significantly (in GBP) for the next three month. Trust me on this one, I am never wrong :rolleyes:

     

    Reports seem to vary, some I have read indicate that the additional vapour money will be directed at commercial toxicity as banks are still unwilling to lend to medium to small businesses. Others suggest further bond/gilt purchases.

     

    FWIW, I'm not too concerned with the price in Sterling tbh as I have very little Sterling left at this point, only enough to get by so to speak.

     

    Should be interesting either way...


  2. These are my best guesses.

     

    Stock Markets – Depends on QE. The stock markets will keep going up for as long as QE lasts. Institutional investors are selling their Gilts/Bonds to Central Banks leaving them with cash to buy stocks, commodities and more Gilts/Bonds. I don’t expect the BofE to extend their gilt purchases this week; instead I think they will focus the next £25bn entirely on commercial paper/bonds. This could lead to a short sharp correction in the markets and allow a nice entry point for some extra silver. GBP could also strengthen a touch at the same time maybe 1.75 vs USD.

     

    ................................................................................

    ......

     

    Looks as if you're on the right lines there ziknk, another £75bln for purchasing commercial debt and that's just for starters I reckon. So much for green shoots and stability... ;)

     

    Ok so we have:

     

    Me, $18

    Pixel8r, $30

    And goldfinger, presumably at $100 plus.

     

    Any other predictions?

     

    Can I play?

     

    <$10/oz within six months...


  3. These are my best guesses.

     

    Stock Markets – Depends on QE. The stock markets will keep going up for as long as QE lasts. Institutional investors are selling their Gilts/Bonds to Central Banks leaving them with cash to buy stocks, commodities and more Gilts/Bonds. I don’t expect the BofE to extend their gilt purchases this week; instead I think they will focus the next £25bn entirely on commercial paper/bonds. This could lead to a short sharp correction in the markets and allow a nice entry point for some extra silver. GBP could also strengthen a touch at the same time maybe 1.75 vs USD.

     

    Euro – No idea. I’m not watching Euro very closely at the moment.

     

    US Bonds – Prices will be down a bit at the end of the year. We might get to the stage where banks provide the most of the motive force for QE

     

    Bank borrows currency from central bank using crappy collateral and lends money to a new investment vehicle. Investment vehicle buys Bonds and rakes in the coupon payments. Everyone involved is delighted and gets a huge bonus. Taxpayer pays.

     

    Thanks ziknik, insightful analysis, much appreciated...


  4. Around 1.25 - 1.35

     

    Um, that's interesting as your target for Cable concurs exactly with mine, although we obviously differ on whether silver will hold up this time against the USD...

     

    Out of further curiosity, do you envisage equities and the Euro following the same direction as Sterling? Also, how d'you see the US yield curve developing i.e. steepening or flattening in this instance?

     

    Don't worry, I'm not trying to trip you up or anything sinister, it's just nice to be able to compare notes with someone that has thought things through thoroughly... :)


  5. Silver is hardly looking over extended against gold. Check these one year charts;

     

    May be silver has the potential to go slightly higher. $16? $18.50 even? Who knows for sure?

     

    However, looking at it from an intermediate term perspective, the downside to me at least, easily outweighs the potential upside at this stage.

     

    Perhaps it might be wiser to keep an eye on the equities markets rather than the price of gold when it comes to trading silver atm? Seems to have been an even stronger correlation between the two than anywhere else of late.

     

    Anyway, as I said above, the best of success to you all. I love silver, she's been very kind to me and I hope she does the same for all those that take an interest in her...


  6. By my calculation, silver's up 8.5% in just three trading days. Gold has not made a similar percentage gain - only 3 and a bit percent.

     

    So perhaps that is how silver makes a bigger move than gold?

     

    Whoa there!

     

    I've been in and out of silver for a number of years now and one pattern I've learnt to recognise more than any other probably is the blow off phase in PMs. Don't forget, silver makes most of it's gains right at the end of a trend, once gold runs out of steam i.e. when it is deemed too expensive so they opt for silver instead...

     

    Could always be different this time, but I doubt it though. Still, good luck to all those that are brave enough to go long at this stage...


  7. +1 The ratio is under 66 on its way to 50 B)

     

    I will bail out at 50 as am concerned about a deflation scare in the wings. Long term for silver... who knows.

     

    Wow, that's one hell of a call...

     

    Assuming that the price of both gold and silver will rise as the gsr drops, silver would be trading at $20/oz if gold only rose to $1,000/oz. Should gold break through the thousand mark and spike to $1,250/oz say, silver would have to be trading at $25/oz for a gsr of 50. Sorry to wee on anyone's parade here, but how likely is that?

     

    Would have to be one hell of an inflation scare for that to happen. Can't see it myself barring any black swans of course...

     

    If anything, the Japanese Yen is starting to look promising, only question is, what's a good entry point in terms of USD/JPY? Suggestions kindly received...


  8. The ultimate goldbug phone?

     

    Solid-Rose-Gold-iPhone-3GS-Diamond.jpg

     

    UK : 4 designers, including Stuart Hughes, have designed the worlds first 18 carrot gold iPhone 3GS, called the 18ct Solid Rose Gold iPhone 3GS Diamond. The designers of the mobile have outstanding credentials having been part of the Goldstriker team for many years.

     

    The project has taken massive amounts of intricate work to create a solid gold version of the iPhone body. The whole project was started and finished by hand and contains 150gramms of 18ct rose gold, 53 pink diamonds and an 18ct rose gold logo.

     

     

    Specification

     

    Apple iPhone 3G Black (16 GB) Smart phone Unlocked for

    All networks worldwide.

     

    Key Features

     

    Display Size 320 x 480

    Installed Memory 16 GB

    Wireless Capabilities Bluetooth, WLAN 802.11b, WLAN 802.11g

    Built-in Digital Camera Built-in Digital Camera

    Input Method Microphone, Touch Screen

    Talk Time 10 Hours

    Standby Time 300 Hours

    Digital Camera Resolution 2 Mega pixels

     

    Price - £21,995.00

     

    LINK >>>

     

    Solid-Rose-Gold-iPhone-3GS-Diamond2.jpg

     

    Never knew gold came in that colour...


  9. it's because I hadn't planned this french house sale tbh......& we have just done a full house move in the UK as well.

     

    Pourquoi? :D

     

    Please don't respond in French 'cos that's as far as my Franglaise extends to...

     

    yes fair point re the silver's volatility, especially for someone like me with limited experience. h'mmm.......this is exactly what I need, lot's of opinions & chat to help me decide.

     

    one minute I am thinking about getting 40% silver, next I am thinking just all gold.....

     

    it's because I hadn't planned this french house sale tbh......& we have just done a full house move in the UK as well.

     

    I am mentally knackered......seriously. 1500 mile round trip drive & emptied my loft in france & back to UK on me tod.........3 days after the UK house move. This makes 4 house moves since returning from france in 2006 ffs :o :o

     

    never, ever again.............seriously, well until next year when we relocate to Devon. :blink:

     

    anyway, back to silver talks.......

     

    Again, please don't let I or any other poster disuade you from acting in your own best interests. Having said that, I would summise that you'd probably be better off taking some more time in coming to a conclusion given your endeavours of late. Also, it's far better to get it right with the longer term trend in your case judging by what you've divulged rather than to speculate on short-term volatility.

     

    Yes, you could enjoy huge profits in a very short time, but the facts tend to suggest most get more than they bargained for playing that game and you've been around long enough to appreciate that more than most I suspect, so I'll stop teaching you how to suck eggs now...

     

    Just be careful that's all, I personally don't believe this to be the time for putting your nads on the line, that's all. What you invest in and how much is purely a decision for you alone. Well, may be you should consult with your better arf as well... :)


  10. it's worth remembering that last fall the premium on coins went through the roof, so when the comex price dipped, the small retail silver held it's value.

     

    admittedly, this was not the case for 1000oz bars, but if you wanted eagles, maples etc., you paid 50-80% premium for them (ebay / dealers etc) when comex silver troughed.

     

    if anyone wants to check this, read through the silver gei threads from start to finish it's all there.

     

    Whether, the mints are prepared this year is open to debate. personally, i don't think we will see $10 silver again, but I, like everyone else do not have a crystal ball.

     

    imho, I think we will see the bottom in aug/sept followed by a big rally coinciding with bailout 2 / qe II

     

    it will be interesting to see who's right. good luck

     

    An excellent observation DA...

     

    I would go further and add that coin investors needn't concern themselves too much with the spot price on the COMEX these days. However, bullion investors should always seek to take advantage of the Cartel's offerings whenever they're likely to present themselves especially in the manner prescribed above by RH...


  11. Whoops - if you don't mind me asking - what's your general investment strategy/plan? Are you a trader or?

     

    Long-term investor, medium-term trader. I don't bother day-trading silver if that's what you're getting at...

     

    My investment strategy is broad and wide ranging. I always strife to avoid falling in love with any one particular investment and history proves that this has always been the best policy when it comes to PMs, silver especially given its volatility.

     

    Question: When has silver ever held on to it's significant price gains over the long run without correcting big time?

     

    Answer: Never.

     

    History suggests that buying and holding silver hardly ever works (in real terms) as a long-term investment strategy. Shame really, as life would be a lot less bothersome and stressful if it did.

     

    Still, it could be different this time even though we're all well aware how dangerous such sentiment can be when it comes to investing...


  12. Would be interested if you could expand on why you think this.

     

    Thanks

     

    1) The big manipulators have been caught short and will only default after trashing the price. Refer to the nickel default for further details.

     

    2) Near term global economic circumstances (up to 1 year say) tend to indicate lower prices are more likely than higher ones going forward.

     

    3) Despite all that's being reported by the silver pundits, there's a large overhang of commercial supply at present. Thorough objective due diligence will testify to this fact regardless of recent investment demand.

     

    Of course, I'm only human and could be wrong, but if I had to bet the ranch on it, I will always favour playing the percentages as it's generally more profitable that way in the long run. Needless to say, I could miss the boat entirely with my bleak outlook, a risk that I'm more than happy to take given the present set up however...


  13. If tempted to buy silver.... go quickly to deflationist forums and read how all commodities will collapse in a deflation. This should deflate the desire to buy silver. :lol:

     

    Seriously though, it is likely to be very volatile for a longish time so what's the hurry. Then if you get it for bargain prices, the volatlity will be a lot less worrisome.

     

    Deflation or no deflation, we'll still see sub $10 prices before we'll see +$20 again imho...


  14. whoops_apocalypse... your speculation intelligence amuses me!

     

    I await the fundamentals behind your speculation.

     

    ;)

     

    Fundamentals are all well and good. I say that as someone who likes the longer term fundamentals of silver. Nevertheless, it is worth bearing in mind that the fundamentals of silver did not prevent the price from falling >70% within eight months last year.

     

    You remember how it tanked all the way from $21.50/oz in March down to $8.60/oz by October? Don't recall any of the fundamentals suggesting that that would happen either at the time. Still, it's all idle speculation, whether you pay to hear it or visit forums such as this makes no differnece to the fact that no one can truly predict the future.

     

    All the same, I sense better opportunities ahead to wade in, though just like all the pundits mentioned previously, I could be wrong of course...


  15. David Morgan. Be careful with Silver Wheaten which could be affected if base metals are caught up in a slump in commodity prices. Silver going lower though not to $9 before rallying of course.

     

    Um, the cuddly Mr Morgan, the same Mr Morgan that initially predicted silver bottoming out at $14.50/oz during the start of last year's correction, then only to revise his targets downwards once the correction accelerated and legions of hopefuls had been misled. More amusing was his sitting on the fence once the actual bottom had been reached.

     

    Still, a whole lot better than the likes of Jason Hommel with his infinite silver prices e.g. "$8,000/oz here we come" or Mr Turk's "+$30/oz by Q3 2008" or Ted Butler's usual mid-correction declarations of "there's never been a better time to buy!" or "this is the last chance you'll ever get before the concentrated silver shorts default."

     

    Of course he could be right on this occasion but so could a pinhead be when you blindly shove it into the silver chart. Due diligence as always especially given silver's propensity to disappoint both on the up and downsides...

     

    As they say, there's nothing more dangerous in the investment world than a silver bug. Ask Jim Sinclair if you don't believe me...

     

    EDIT: Nearly forgot the Jim Puplava one when he proceeded to rant on about how he was gonna buy a tonne of physical bullion silver for every dollar the spot price went down by starting at $12.50/oz. Geeze, no wonder the guy had to wait four months for delivery, he must have taken on half the world's annual production by the time the price had finally bottomed. :lol:


  16. What if other governments followed India's lead?

     

    Traders criticise gold tax increase

    By Joe Leahy in Mumbai and Chris Flood in London

    Published: July 6 2009 18:22 | Last updated: July 6 2009 18:22

     

    India, the world’s largest consumer of gold, could face a drop in precious metal imports after the government announced plans to double import taxes on gold and silver.

     

    Customs duty on gold bars and coins is set to double to Rs200 ($4.12) per 10 grammes as part of India’s interim budget.

     

    The move prompted an angry reaction from the Bombay Bullion Association, the traders’ body.

     

    “Imports were down 50 per cent in the first half, and now even the remaining demand will evaporate,” said Suresh Hundia, president of the BBA.

     

    CONTINUE >>>

     

    Wouldn't expect anything less from Obama and Brown should they fail in suppressing the price by other means, would you? Could also impose punitive taxes on any profits achieved no doubt... <_<


  17. Great sage or feeling the squeeze?

     

    Horrific gold 'dump': Is this guy for real? – ThomWatch

     

    ‘Interventional’ analyst expects price plunge this week

     

    Michael Bolser, a trained physicist who developed dollar value commodity indexes and 10 months ago correctly forecast the scope of the current recession, expects more than 3,000 tonnes of gold to flood the market this week.

     

    Bolser, based in Florida, says the International Monetary Fund will release the gold for sale on Wednesday, Dec. 10. The 64-year-old Bolser says the price of gold subsequently will slide as much as 40 percent – to $455 an ounce in coming weeks from its current $760 an ounce.

     

    CONTINUE >>>

     

    Meanwhile, silver in backwardization (1 month)?


  18. Um, given all the rumours of an imminent smack down, the contrarian in me expects a sharp price spike and time to take massive profits (in paper PMs) come Friday afternoon (UK)...

     

    Whatever you do, do not be tempted into chasing this market, not in this environment. Remember what happened to the oil price a few weeks ago when the price spiked from $100 to $130pb within half an hour only to tank subsequently to below $50...


  19. http://www.leighmulley.com/files/kerplunk2big.jpg

     

     

    Product Description

     

    Editorial Review

     

    The object: try not to lose your marbles!

     

    A long-time favorite, Ker-Plunk! takes a steady hand, as you skillfully lead goldbugs astray at multiple gold frums. A clear plastic tube is filled with silver dollars, which are supported by crisscrossing sticks inserted through the tube. Each player takes a turn against The Cartel (Ker-Plunk!) removing a stick from the tube, trying to dislodge as few silver dollars as possible. As the game progresses and fewer sticks remain, it gets harder to keep the silver dollars from going ker-plunk! Play continues until all the silver dollars have fallen below $6.60. The player with the most silver dollars in his compartment wins! For unlimited players against The Cartel.

     

    Product Description

     

    Remember those games you loved as a kid? They're back and better than ever! There's a whole new look to Cartel Classic Games, but the fun hasn't changed a bit. Look for Cartel Classic Games and share the memories with a new generation. A classic skill and action game, Ker Plunk! is where you take your pick and pull a pump and dump. If all the silver dollars fall below $6.60, you get a margin call and lose it all! You're only sunk if they go...Ker Plunk! For unlimited players versus The Cartel. Game includes game base, tube, tube connector, sticks, silver dollars and daily instructions in the form of useless and misleading t/a charts posted direct to your PC. Tube measures 666.94"L x 12.25"H. Products and colors may vary.

     

    Funny, I thought his first name was Wan...


  20. In theory, those long on the COMEX are more likely to request delivery if the price is too low rather than the opposite. The old adage is, "there's only one cure for low prices and that's more low prices."

     

    Therefore, should the price rise from these lows, the less likely that they'll be a default on the COMEX or at least that's what I've been told. To be honest, these big daily rises make me somewhat nervous as it could be a prelude to further manipulation once the heat is off the Cartel for a while i.e. until March 2009.

     

    Or alternatively, we could be witnessing the collapse of the COMEX itself; though, at this stage, I very much doubt it, especially when you consider the identity of the bulls' adversaries which includes the major CBs of the developed nations right now.

     

    However, I think it fair to say, that the manipulators are having their work cut out in attempting to keep the prices as low as possible without inducing a deluge of delivery requests which could easily lead to a default and potentially the break up of the COMEX itself; thus, the likelihood of criminal charges being laid upon them in the aftermath.

     

    They're treading a fine line one could say. Which way it goes is anyone's guess as far as us mere mortals are concerned, as only the insiders will have a good grasp of the latest score as it were. Should the Cartel fail to hold current resistance levels, around $825/oz for gold and $10.40 to $10.80 for silver on a closing basis, then that could well mean that we've seen the bottom with the recent lows.

     

    On the flip side, should they succeed in defending the above resistance levels, then Ker could well be right (except for his timing) in that the bottom has not been reached and we could well see the longer term support levels being re-tested at some future date. These lows would lie in the vicinity of $480-540/oz for gold and $6.80-7.50/oz for silver including even more horrific intra day lows should you happen to be long at the time.

     

    That's what my research leads me to conclude anyway, and of course. I could be way off the mark. Nevertheless, I hope what I've written helps others to appreciate the current state of play more fully and to be aware that there's no one in this world who could honestly make the correct call at this point, either way. No matter how hard they try to convince you otherwise, and that applies to the long and shorts in equal measure.

     

    Of course, we can all take an informed guess and have a punt; though, that's all it'll be whether you're right or wrong in the end, just a stab in the dark at this stage...


  21. So what will be the effect on the December COMEX contracts at this new price? Does the higher price make it more likely there will be a default or does the higher price indicate that shorts were covering their positions?

     

    Or have I been caught with my shorts down 'cos I haven't a clue what I'm talking about?

     

    In theory, those long on the COMEX are more likely to request delivery if the price is too low rather than the opposite. The old adage is, "there's only one cure for low prices and that's more low prices."

     

    Therefore, should the price rise from these lows, the less likely that they'll be a default on the COMEX or at least that's what I've been told. To be honest, these big daily rises make me somewaht nervous as it could be a prelude to further manipulation once the heat is off the Cartel for a while i.e. until March 2009.

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