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whoops_apocalypse

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Everything posted by whoops_apocalypse

  1. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    OK, though how high it goes on this occasion doesn't concern me much apart from in deducing how much it will fall once it rolls over. At a guess, I'd say anywhere between where we are now and $16/oz... PS. It's not wise to put a timescale on targets, so I won't... Reports seem to vary, some I have read indicate that the additional vapour money will be directed at commercial toxicity as banks are still unwilling to lend to medium to small businesses. Others suggest further bond/gilt purchases. FWIW, I'm not too concerned with the price in Sterling tbh as I have very little Sterling left at this point, only enough to get by so to speak. Should be interesting either way...
  2. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Looks as if you're on the right lines there ziknk, another £75bln for purchasing commercial debt and that's just for starters I reckon. So much for green shoots and stability... Can I play? <$10/oz within six months...
  3. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Thanks ziknik, insightful analysis, much appreciated...
  4. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Um, that's interesting as your target for Cable concurs exactly with mine, although we obviously differ on whether silver will hold up this time against the USD... Out of further curiosity, do you envisage equities and the Euro following the same direction as Sterling? Also, how d'you see the US yield curve developing i.e. steepening or flattening in this instance? Don't worry, I'm not trying to trip you up or anything sinister, it's just nice to be able to compare notes with someone that has thought things through thoroughly...
  5. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Where d'you see Cable when silver is @ £13.50/oz?
  6. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    ...or how high? Your guess is as good as mine... It's just not for me atm, so in the words of Theo Paphitis: I'm outta!
  7. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    May be silver has the potential to go slightly higher. $16? $18.50 even? Who knows for sure? However, looking at it from an intermediate term perspective, the downside to me at least, easily outweighs the potential upside at this stage. Perhaps it might be wiser to keep an eye on the equities markets rather than the price of gold when it comes to trading silver atm? Seems to have been an even stronger correlation between the two than anywhere else of late. Anyway, as I said above, the best of success to you all. I love silver, she's been very kind to me and I hope she does the same for all those that take an interest in her...
  8. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Whoa there! I've been in and out of silver for a number of years now and one pattern I've learnt to recognise more than any other probably is the blow off phase in PMs. Don't forget, silver makes most of it's gains right at the end of a trend, once gold runs out of steam i.e. when it is deemed too expensive so they opt for silver instead... Could always be different this time, but I doubt it though. Still, good luck to all those that are brave enough to go long at this stage...
  9. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Wow, that's one hell of a call... Assuming that the price of both gold and silver will rise as the gsr drops, silver would be trading at $20/oz if gold only rose to $1,000/oz. Should gold break through the thousand mark and spike to $1,250/oz say, silver would have to be trading at $25/oz for a gsr of 50. Sorry to wee on anyone's parade here, but how likely is that? Would have to be one hell of an inflation scare for that to happen. Can't see it myself barring any black swans of course... If anything, the Japanese Yen is starting to look promising, only question is, what's a good entry point in terms of USD/JPY? Suggestions kindly received...
  10. whoops_apocalypse

    GOLD

    The ultimate goldbug phone? Never knew gold came in that colour...
  11. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Pourquoi? Please don't respond in French 'cos that's as far as my Franglaise extends to... Again, please don't let I or any other poster disuade you from acting in your own best interests. Having said that, I would summise that you'd probably be better off taking some more time in coming to a conclusion given your endeavours of late. Also, it's far better to get it right with the longer term trend in your case judging by what you've divulged rather than to speculate on short-term volatility. Yes, you could enjoy huge profits in a very short time, but the facts tend to suggest most get more than they bargained for playing that game and you've been around long enough to appreciate that more than most I suspect, so I'll stop teaching you how to suck eggs now... Just be careful that's all, I personally don't believe this to be the time for putting your nads on the line, that's all. What you invest in and how much is purely a decision for you alone. Well, may be you should consult with your better arf as well...
  12. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    An excellent observation DA... I would go further and add that coin investors needn't concern themselves too much with the spot price on the COMEX these days. However, bullion investors should always seek to take advantage of the Cartel's offerings whenever they're likely to present themselves especially in the manner prescribed above by RH...
  13. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Long-term investor, medium-term trader. I don't bother day-trading silver if that's what you're getting at... My investment strategy is broad and wide ranging. I always strife to avoid falling in love with any one particular investment and history proves that this has always been the best policy when it comes to PMs, silver especially given its volatility. Question: When has silver ever held on to it's significant price gains over the long run without correcting big time? Answer: Never. History suggests that buying and holding silver hardly ever works (in real terms) as a long-term investment strategy. Shame really, as life would be a lot less bothersome and stressful if it did. Still, it could be different this time even though we're all well aware how dangerous such sentiment can be when it comes to investing...
  14. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    1) The big manipulators have been caught short and will only default after trashing the price. Refer to the nickel default for further details. 2) Near term global economic circumstances (up to 1 year say) tend to indicate lower prices are more likely than higher ones going forward. 3) Despite all that's being reported by the silver pundits, there's a large overhang of commercial supply at present. Thorough objective due diligence will testify to this fact regardless of recent investment demand. Of course, I'm only human and could be wrong, but if I had to bet the ranch on it, I will always favour playing the percentages as it's generally more profitable that way in the long run. Needless to say, I could miss the boat entirely with my bleak outlook, a risk that I'm more than happy to take given the present set up however...
  15. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Deflation or no deflation, we'll still see sub $10 prices before we'll see +$20 again imho...
  16. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    ... or James Turk...
  17. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Fundamentals are all well and good. I say that as someone who likes the longer term fundamentals of silver. Nevertheless, it is worth bearing in mind that the fundamentals of silver did not prevent the price from falling >70% within eight months last year. You remember how it tanked all the way from $21.50/oz in March down to $8.60/oz by October? Don't recall any of the fundamentals suggesting that that would happen either at the time. Still, it's all idle speculation, whether you pay to hear it or visit forums such as this makes no differnece to the fact that no one can truly predict the future. All the same, I sense better opportunities ahead to wade in, though just like all the pundits mentioned previously, I could be wrong of course...
  18. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Um, the cuddly Mr Morgan, the same Mr Morgan that initially predicted silver bottoming out at $14.50/oz during the start of last year's correction, then only to revise his targets downwards once the correction accelerated and legions of hopefuls had been misled. More amusing was his sitting on the fence once the actual bottom had been reached. Still, a whole lot better than the likes of Jason Hommel with his infinite silver prices e.g. "$8,000/oz here we come" or Mr Turk's "+$30/oz by Q3 2008" or Ted Butler's usual mid-correction declarations of "there's never been a better time to buy!" or "this is the last chance you'll ever get before the concentrated silver shorts default." Of course he could be right on this occasion but so could a pinhead be when you blindly shove it into the silver chart. Due diligence as always especially given silver's propensity to disappoint both on the up and downsides... As they say, there's nothing more dangerous in the investment world than a silver bug. Ask Jim Sinclair if you don't believe me... EDIT: Nearly forgot the Jim Puplava one when he proceeded to rant on about how he was gonna buy a tonne of physical bullion silver for every dollar the spot price went down by starting at $12.50/oz. Geeze, no wonder the guy had to wait four months for delivery, he must have taken on half the world's annual production by the time the price had finally bottomed.
  19. whoops_apocalypse

    GOLD

    What if other governments followed India's lead? Wouldn't expect anything less from Obama and Brown should they fail in suppressing the price by other means, would you? Could also impose punitive taxes on any profits achieved no doubt...
  20. whoops_apocalypse

    GOLD

    Great sage or feeling the squeeze? Meanwhile, silver in backwardization (1 month)?
  21. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    I can confirm tomorrow will be Thursday - 100% guaranteed...
  22. whoops_apocalypse

    GOLD

    Um, given all the rumours of an imminent smack down, the contrarian in me expects a sharp price spike and time to take massive profits (in paper PMs) come Friday afternoon (UK)... Whatever you do, do not be tempted into chasing this market, not in this environment. Remember what happened to the oil price a few weeks ago when the price spiked from $100 to $130pb within half an hour only to tank subsequently to below $50...
  23. whoops_apocalypse

    SILVER

    Funny, I thought his first name was Wan...
  24. whoops_apocalypse

    GOLD

    Or alternatively, we could be witnessing the collapse of the COMEX itself; though, at this stage, I very much doubt it, especially when you consider the identity of the bulls' adversaries which includes the major CBs of the developed nations right now. However, I think it fair to say, that the manipulators are having their work cut out in attempting to keep the prices as low as possible without inducing a deluge of delivery requests which could easily lead to a default and potentially the break up of the COMEX itself; thus, the likelihood of criminal charges being laid upon them in the aftermath. They're treading a fine line one could say. Which way it goes is anyone's guess as far as us mere mortals are concerned, as only the insiders will have a good grasp of the latest score as it were. Should the Cartel fail to hold current resistance levels, around $825/oz for gold and $10.40 to $10.80 for silver on a closing basis, then that could well mean that we've seen the bottom with the recent lows. On the flip side, should they succeed in defending the above resistance levels, then Ker could well be right (except for his timing) in that the bottom has not been reached and we could well see the longer term support levels being re-tested at some future date. These lows would lie in the vicinity of $480-540/oz for gold and $6.80-7.50/oz for silver including even more horrific intra day lows should you happen to be long at the time. That's what my research leads me to conclude anyway, and of course. I could be way off the mark. Nevertheless, I hope what I've written helps others to appreciate the current state of play more fully and to be aware that there's no one in this world who could honestly make the correct call at this point, either way. No matter how hard they try to convince you otherwise, and that applies to the long and shorts in equal measure. Of course, we can all take an informed guess and have a punt; though, that's all it'll be whether you're right or wrong in the end, just a stab in the dark at this stage...
  25. whoops_apocalypse

    GOLD

    In theory, those long on the COMEX are more likely to request delivery if the price is too low rather than the opposite. The old adage is, "there's only one cure for low prices and that's more low prices." Therefore, should the price rise from these lows, the less likely that they'll be a default on the COMEX or at least that's what I've been told. To be honest, these big daily rises make me somewaht nervous as it could be a prelude to further manipulation once the heat is off the Cartel for a while i.e. until March 2009.
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