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Clonk!

 

Shares fall on lower profits. Time to buy some more?

 

more bad news and it still doesn't go below 530p. Looks like a decent bottom.

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more bad news and it still doesn't go below 530p. Looks like a decent bottom.

I suppose if you are buying long term, now could be as good a time as any to buy, even though BP does seem to have a lot of bad news around it at the moment. I do wonder what might happen to it if there was a general sell off in the market? If the oil price holds up or gets back near $70 then BP would probably outperform the market, but if oil fell back, then it might be cheaper come the summer. Any chance 500 or below?

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added to my BP July calls yesterday, paying $1.91 this time.

 

they traded even lower afterwards

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BP now 517, getting ever closer to 500.

There needs to be some finality with the business in Russia.

I've been looking to buy for a while, but haven't because of this issue.

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There needs to be some finality with the business in Russia.

I've been looking to buy for a while, but haven't because of this issue.

 

Same here, we could be a long time waiting though.

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Financial Times article for Friday 2nd March.

 

Gazprom yesterday said it was discussing forming an international joint venture with BP to sell liquified natural gas that the Russian energy company said could presage further co-operation with the British oil group. Lord Brown, BP chief executive held talks in Moscow yesterday with Alexei Miller, his counterpart at gazprom, as the two companies sought ways to settle a stand-off that has dogged BPs Russia venture TNK-BP. A Gazprom offical siad the discussions could mark the beginning of "wider cooperation between the two companies in oil and gas".

 

The article goes on further - but nothing else new.

 

Light at the end of the tunnel??

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Financial Times article for Friday 2nd March.

 

Gazprom yesterday said it was discussing forming an international joint venture with BP to sell liquified natural gas that the Russian energy company said could presage further co-operation with the British oil group. Lord Brown, BP chief executive held talks in Moscow yesterday with Alexei Miller, his counterpart at gazprom, as the two companies sought ways to settle a stand-off that has dogged BPs Russia venture TNK-BP. A Gazprom offical siad the discussions could mark the beginning of "wider cooperation between the two companies in oil and gas".

 

The article goes on further - but nothing else new.

 

Light at the end of the tunnel??

 

Hope so, i bought in yesterday.. :P

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Hope so, i bought in yesterday.. :P

 

 

I think im gonna wait for indications of BPs 1st quarter results released at the end of April, - although rising oil prices should give a good outlook. A rise in out put would also really help share price considering their recent bad press.

 

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/09/bloomberg/bxbp.php

 

I think its a good bet that after the recent bad news, that BP will want to put a shine on things - improve their media profile. I reckon the upcoming statement in April will be upbeat. Indeed I reckon there will be a continual flow of upbeat news releases (we need to keep posting any news reports here) from now until end of April, that Article above will be the first of many controlled release news bulletins.

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"Russia's environmental agency said on Saturday that environmental violations at Orenburgneft, a subsidiary of Anglo-Russian oil firm TNK-BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research), had caused an oil pipeline leak on February 28 which threatened water supplies."

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews...373048520070303

 

And some good news.

 

"BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile , Research), operator of Vietnam's Nam Con Son gas project, said on Friday it planned to raise natural gas deliveries to power plants in the country's south by nearly 14 percent to 15 million cubic metres per day."

 

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articl...TNAM-GAS-BP.XML

 

"Russia's OAO Gazprom has discussed forming a joint venture with BP PLC that could work with liquefied natural gas, the state gas monopoly said in a statement Thursday."

 

http://kiplingerforecasts.com/apnews/XmlSt...?storyid=316806

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A 2006 article that gives us an idea about future good news releases.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/08/08/oilfield....down/index.html

 

When BP officially announce that it is back to full capacity at that site it WILL help BP share price.

 

"The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the field, the largest in North America, would fully recover from the shutdown by January 2007, Reuters reported."

 

This next url is a very useful article - mixed bag of good and bad info.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/06/news/inter....reut/index.htm

 

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_...18/ai_n16847490

 

This one above could certainly be a source of good news.

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The suggestion i have seen on multiple websites is that BP will merge with another major Oil company to deal with its supply issues.

 

Question is what are the likely candidates?

 

and ......

 

Likely effect on BP share price?

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The suggestion i have seen on multiple websites is that BP will merge with another major Oil company to deal with its supply issues.

 

Question is what are the likely candidates?

 

and ......

 

Likely effect on BP share price?

 

Shell.

 

24 oct 2006

 

A Shell-BP merger would make a lot of sense and would allow [the BP chief executive Lord] John Browne to leave his company on a high note," Fadel Gheit, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co in New York, said yesterday. Mr Gheit put out a note last week saying that Shell and BP could make annual savings of more than $5bn and significantly improve the new company's operating efficiency. This would help it compete with ExxonMobil.

 

BP's share price has risen by less than 6% and Shell's less than 8% this year while ExxonMobil's has soared by 24% and Mr Gheit, unlike many of his fellow analysts, thinks regulatory clearance could be achieved without too many divestitures being demanded.

 

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1929784,00.html

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BP merging with Shell? I fancy that one would end up on the desk of the Competition Commission.

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BP merging with Shell? I fancy that one would end up on the desk of the Competition Commission.

 

Yea it would be a bit of a beast :)

 

edited.. or would it..

 

Outdated info but a quick look shows that combined they would produce 1822M barrels which is still no where near saudi arabian oil co by itself, china venezuela and mexico would still give them a run for thier money... assuming production ratio's stayed about the same since 1998 which maybe very far fetched, ill try and find some more up to date figures for comparrison when i get time.

 

 

 

 

COMPANY

 

WORLDWIDE OIL PRODUCTION

Million barrels per year, 1998

Saudi Arabian Oil Co.*

 

3028

Petroleos Mexicanos*

 

1278

Petroleos de Venezuela*

 

1258

China National Petroleum*

 

1168

BP Amoco + Arco

 

963

ExxonMobil

 

894

Royal Dutch/Shell

 

859

Nigerian National Oil Co.*

 

772

Iraq National Oil Co.*

 

770

Kuwait Petroleum*

 

757

Chevron + Texaco

 

756

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I finally got around to buying BP in the past weeks correction. Also bought more British Energy and a little speculative punt on a JREIT (JRIC).

To pay for the above some profits were taken on the uranium shares and injected a bit more cash. In hindsight the way the uranium bounced back id be better if i kept the lot.

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Two very bad news articles in mainstream press on BP this weekend, one in the Main section of the FT on Sat regarding the unlikely alliance between BP and Gazprom and how the Russian government has set impossible targets in production (as BP implies) that seems to be to force the default and reallocation of contracts (implying that BPs role with Gazprom is doomed), and a scathing attack from the US administration with regards to safety, - in the Investors Chronicle.

 

If anything BP will fall this week to a new low - another buying opportunity perhaps? Dont forget annual results at the end of April.

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BP has been disappointing, and i am glad that i own calls (with limited risk),

rather than outright longs.

 

I had another look at the chart ... update-weekly-w/533wk

bigec3.gif

 

i see that it broke the 200wk.ma. where's the next support likely to kick in?

i use fibonacci numbers. the next one is: 330wk- which has broken, then the 533wk.ma.

That one comes in about 517p- and BP has traded a touch below that. Closed yesterday at 515.5p.

In NY there, was a nice bounce: $60.10 + Change +$0.53

 

i will take another look at the BP story.

i am considering "resetting my options" which would mean:

selling the July calls that i own, and buying a lower strike with more time

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The US$ chart tells a somewhat different story ... update-all data : last 26 weeks

00adc6.gif

 

support is here, right near the $60 level.

203wk.ma is at $59

 

btw, if you are going to go long BP, the ideal way is through the US$ Call options (!!!)

not straight longs, and not through the Gbp calls

 

i think reading thru some of the previous posts may make that clear.

but if you want to know more, please ask!

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