GEI's own "turtle traders" - Is this a good idea?

[wolf]

I would certainly be interested in trying a mechnical trading system because it would provide me with the discipline I need to run my trades for longer.

[drbubb]

I would certainly be interested in trying a mechnical trading system because it would provide me with the discipline I need to run my trades for longer.

You can do that with becoming a Turtle.

Perhaps later, I will describe the system I have in mind. Right now, it is not fully tested.

In brief, it involves linking stops to MA's

 

[drbubb]

HAM has screwed up,

and he will be "on ignore" around here for a considerable time

 

He posted this on HPC:

QUOTE (hotairmail @ 19 July 2010 - 11:29 AM)

Okay - I'll do a bit of advertising for Dr Bubb.

Why not become a Bubb 'Turtle'. It's very hard to become one, so you'll have to try really hard so he can see how hard you are prepared to try.

He'll lend you $10,000 to start an account as 'seed' money. No strings.

Bubb only wants to bring peace and prosperity to the world and help everyone. His ambition was to be a beauty queen.

 

Oh hang on a minute, I didn't see this at the start.

 

My response was:

HAM,

I think that is rather nasty on your part, and your account "elsewhere" will be closed now.

Had i wanted that posted here, i would have done it myself.

 

Why don't you go back to whatever self-serving and cynical thing you do for a living and leave others alone. I never said that I was doing anything for charitable reasons, but I can tell you this, I would only offer an opportunity to others that I would have been willing to accept myself. I follow the golden rule: Do onto others as...

 

You clearly don't believe in such a rule, or you would have asked my permission, so you will be suspended for long enough that it might as well be permanent.

[drbubb]

HAM #2:

If as you say you make a very good living trading on your own account why do you insist on persisting with the 'shill' side?

If I'm banned, does that mean I can't be a turtle anymore?

You are suspended for an extended time there. Had you asked permission to post that, I would have told you that I will be testing the idea for some months before launching it. And I may decide not to proceed, if the system I want to use is not successful. But the thread has now taken on a life of its own, discussing the techniques used by the Turtles. In fact, one of the posters has posted a link to a Pdf file with the Rules they use.

[drbubb]

This isn't fair at all....

I demand to be included in this list of persone non gratae!....

Dear oh dear Bubb....

Steve Cook is a troll from HPC, who has been suspended after this post here (which I have deleted.)

He is a well-known trouble maker over there, and has nothing useful to add here

[ziknik]

HAM has screwed up,

and he will be "dead meat" around here for a considerable time

...

Did he start a thread with that post?

 

He’s a pretty reasonable guy and from what I remember he had no particular beef with you.

 

If you leave him some space he might realise he has upset you and apologise.

 

Then again, I could be completely wrong and he might actually hate you

 

Either way, it’s better for you to stop posting in the thread over at HPC.

 

[ecoface]

Did he start a thread with that post?

He’s a pretty reasonable guy and from what I remember he had no particular beef with you.

If you leave him some space he might realise he has upset you and apologise.

Then again, I could be completely wrong and he might actually hate you

Either way, it’s better for you to stop posting in the thread over at HPC.

 

He's upset still about Red Kharma leaving the forum so abruptly.

[ziknik]

He's upset still about Red Kharma leaving the forum so abruptly.

Oh,

 

I must have missed the action.

 

Cheers.

[drbubb]

Did he start a thread with that post?

He’s a pretty reasonable guy and from what I remember he had no particular beef with you.

 

If you leave him some space he might realise he has upset you and apologise.

Then again, I could be completely wrong and he might actually hate you

Either way, it’s better for you to stop posting in the thread over at HPC.

From his recent postings on that thread, I would hardly think of him as "a reasonable guy."

 

As for my own participation on HPC: I have already asked that the thread be banned, and at MY OWN REQUEST, the HPC mods have suspended my account for 20 days, so that I will not be tempted to visit and post there.

 

In pondering the design of a possible Turtles program, I had not intended it as charity. (You may know that I do not believe that it is intelligent to "give fish", and instead you want to "teach people to fish... with a commercial flavor to it." To me, that is the most effective way to help people. And that is the way that a sensible government acts too.)

 

I am trying to come up with something that I would consider fair and reasonable IF I WAS A TRADER, so I came up with this:

 

...if the "seeding" of an account works out, I would be looking for an ongoing share of the trading profits from the same account (I am thinking of 20%), so this might be a way of multiplying my own efforts, if we are good at selecting traders, and in picking the ongoing stock ideas.

My partner and I spoke about this, and we came up with a number of ways turtles might "game the system", but in the end of the day, if the trading capital came from me/us, and we got our "loan" back, it seemed very reasonable that some share of future trading profits would go to us for seeding the scheme. (We talked about percentages ranging from 10-15% to 50%.)

 

By comparison, I managed money for a very wealthy guy, and he got all of his money back x5 times, and I was only getting 5-10% of the profit. Ultimately, we had a parting of the ways, partly because I wasn't happy with such small compensation after such huge results. But I let it run for years. Since he had taken his original capital back out several times over, in effect, I was getting no more than 10% of the profits, and he was getting 90%, even though he had his seed money back. He was providing nothing but an admin burden, and so I considered that unfair, but lived with it for some time. What do people here think is fair in a case where I develop the exit rules, and provide some ongoing trading ideas?

[rpitwood]

Hi Dr Bubb

 

This sounds like a brilliant opportunity. I've been visiting this site (and HPC) almost daily for months now, learning more every day, but I'm still in the foothills. That's why I don't post much.

 

I'm averagely paid by northern English standards, work a normal 9-5 and since I started reading this site I have moved my PPP to a SIPP, started to buy one gold sovereign a month and an ounce of silver a week.

 

I am reading the rules pdf at the moment, but yes, I am interested.

 

Thanks

Grim (up north)

 

 

[ziknik]

Back on topic:

 

Maybe you could use Bimbles website to facilitate a competition between the candidates

 

http://www.tipythia.com/

[cranberryDog46]

From his recent postings on that thread, I would hardly think of him as "a reasonable guy."

 

As for my own participation on HPC: I have already asked that the thread be banned, and at MY OWN REQUEST, the HPC mods have suspended my account for 20 days, so that I will not be tempted to visit and post there.

 

In pondering the design of a possible Turtles program, I had not intended it as charity. (You may know that I do not believe that it is intelligent to "give fish", and instead you want to "teach people to fish... with a commercial flavor to it." To me, that is the most effective way to help people. And that is the way that a sensible government acts too.)

 

I am trying to come up with something that I would consider fair and reasonable IF I WAS A TRADER, so I came up with this:

 

 

My partner and I spoke about this, and we came up with a number of ways turtles might "game the system", but in the end of the day, if the trading capital came from me/us, and we got our "loan" back, it seemed very reasonable that some share of future trading profits would go to us for seeding the scheme. (We talked about percentages ranging from 10-15% to 50%.)

 

By comparison, I managed money for a very wealthy guy, and he got all of his money back x5 times, and I was only getting 5-10% of the profit. Ultimately, we had a parting of the ways, partly because I wasn't happy with such small compensation after such huge results. But I let it run for years. Since he had taken his original capital back out several times over, in effect, I was getting no more than 10% of the profits, and he was getting 90%, even though he had his seed money back. He was providing nothing but an admin burden, and so I considered that unfair, but lived with it for some time. What do people here think is fair in a case where I develop the exit rules, and provide some ongoing trading ideas?

 

 

Being realistic if you're successful in teaching people to trade ultimately they will strike out on their own.

 

I would say the minimum that would be fair to you would be at least to take out double your initial stake over 2 or 3 years, assuming the system was that profitable.

[00timebandit00]

Being realistic if you're successful in teaching people to trade ultimately they will strike out on their own.

 

I would say the minimum that would be fair to you would be at least to take out double your initial stake over 2 or 3 years, assuming the system was that profitable.

 

I agree, minimum. Or what about a larger percentage over a shorter time period? It does seem to be a high risk type thing.

[drbubb]

I agree, minimum. Or what about a larger percentage over a shorter time period? It does seem to be a high risk type thing.

Haha.

High risk for whom?

The higher the risk, the bigger the payout for the "seeder", I would have thought.

 

Let me ask you this: Is anyone else here willing to seed GEI Turtles on the same basis?

If someone is, then maybe my funds would not be needed

[00timebandit00]

Haha.

High risk for whom?

The higher the risk, the bigger the payout for the "seeder", I would have thought.

 

Let me ask you this: Is anyone else here willing to seed GEI Turtles on the same basis?

If someone is, then maybe my funds would not be needed

 

I meant higher risk for you, the seeder! => more return

 

[drbubb]

I meant higher risk for you, the seeder! => more return

Okay.

One of the possibilities would be to have maybe half the "seed" capital come from the average "Turtle" himself.

But I do rather like the idea of seeding someone (maybe just one of the Turtles), who might otherwise not be able to participate at all. And if all goes well, that Turtle Trader might be on the way to discovering a new livelihood.

 

[drbubb]

Linda Bradford Raschke – 50 Time Tested Classic Stock Trading Rules

by OLIVIER on DECEMBER 20, 2009

 

Excellent trading advice from Linda Bradford Raschke which makes for a great addition to my Trading Rules. Check them for more trading rules from great traders.

 

Shout-out to LeRoy Gardner. He posted those rules a while back on his blog: http://blog.leroygardner.com/

 

1. Plan your trades. Trade your plan.

2. Keep records of your trading results.

3. Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.

4. Don’t take the market home.

5. Continually set higher trading goals.

6. Successful traders buy into bad news and sell into good news.

7. Successful traders are not afraid to buy high and sell low.

8. Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.

9. Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.

10. Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.

11. Limit your losses – use stops!

12. Never cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it!

13. Place the stop at the time you make your trade.

14. Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.

15. Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.

16. Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.

17. The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.

18. Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.

19. Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.

20. Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.

 

/more Rules: http://www.tischendorf.com/2009/12/20/lind...-trading-rules/

[drbubb]

Is this what we are all aiming for ??

 

Bo Yoder And Vadym Graifer – 6 Stages Of A Trader

EXCERPTS

 

Stage Three: The Cynical Skepticism Stage

 

You’ve studied so hard and put so much effort into your trading and this universal failure in the patterns only when you take them causes you to feel betrayed by the market, the books and materials and gurus you tried to learn from. Everybody claims their ideas lead to profitability, but every time you take a trade, it’s a loser, even though the setups all worked perfectly before you played them. And since one of the most painful experiences is to fail when success looks easy, this embarrassment is transformed into anger: anger at the gurus, anger at the vendors, anger at the writers, the seminars, the courses, the brokers, the market makers, the specialists, the “manipulators”. What’s the point in trying to analyze and improve your own trading when there are so many dark forces out to get you?

 

This excuse-driven blame game is a dead-end viewpoint, and explains a lot of what you find on message boards. Those who can’t pull themselves out of it will quit.

. . .

 

Stage Six: Mastery (also from Vadym Graifer)

 

At this level, the trader achieves an almost Zen-like trading state. Planning, analysis, research are the focus of his time and his effort. When the trading day opens, he’s ready for it. He’s calm, he’s relaxed, he’s centered.

 

Trading becomes effortless. He is thoroughly familiar with his plan. He knows exactly what he will do in any given situation, even if the doing means exiting immediately upon a completely unexpected development. He understands the inevitability of loss and accepts it as a natural part of the business of trading. No one can hurt him because he’s protected by his rules and his discipline.

 

He is sensitive to and in tune with the ebb and flow of market behavior and the natural actions and reactions to it that his research has taught him will optimize his edge. He is “available”. He doesn’t have to know what the market will do next because he knows how he will react to anything the market does and is confident in his ability to react correctly.

 

He understands and practices “active inaction”, knowing exactly what it is he wants, exactly what it is he’s looking for, and waiting, patiently, for exactly the right opportunity. If and when that opportunity presents itself, he acts decisively and without hesitation, then waits, patiently, again, for the next opportunity.

 

He does not convince himself that he is right. He watches price movement and draws his conclusions. When market behavior changes, so do his tactics. He acknowledges that market movement is the ultimate truth. He doesn’t try to outsmart or outguess it.

 

He is, in a sense, outside himself, acting as his own coach, asking himself questions and explaining to himself without rationalization what he’s waiting for, what he’s doing,

 

/more: http://www.tischendorf.com/2010/01/16/bo-y...es-of-a-trader/

[drbubb]

TRADE ENTRIES are more important than "managing exits", I reckon

 

(I have had a PM from someone asking me about setting up a trading model, to test trading strategies. My point here, is that the methodology that he is thinking about may be only half the task, and there's a much bigger task then testing exit strategies.):

 

I am not trading FTSE now (maybe I should) - but it looks like we are seeing..,

 

A Nice Potential TRIPLE TOP here near 5250/5300 : FTSEchart

 

FTSE chart ... update

 

From Jan.1, FTSE compared with BDEV ... update

== ==

 

The profits aren't in the MA's, they lie in choosing the right ENTRY POINTS of a good trade, and then managing the position to maximise profits while minimising losses, and that is where the MA's come in.

 

But without the "secret sauce", selecting good trade entries, I don't think the MA's themselves will make money on randomly selected trade entries.

[deeper]

So when is this starting? I'm ready to kick some turtle ass

[drbubb]

Not soon. Probably not before September.

 

But I may launch a one-off before then.

 

I have left the thread up, to discuss the Turtles Trading ideas.

[drbubb]

The Original Turtles advert:

 

Richard J. Dennis of C&D Commodities

is accepting applications for the position of Commodities Futures Trader

to expand his established group of traders.

 

Mr Dennis and his associates will train a small group of applicants in his proprietary trading concepts. Successful candidates will trade solely for Mr Dennis: they will not be allowed to trade futures for themselves or others. Traders will be paid a percentage of their trading profits, and will be allowed a small draw. Prior experience in trading will be considered, but is not necessary. Applicants should send a brief resume with one sentence giving their reasons for applying to:

 

C&D commodities

141 W. Jackson, Suite 60604

attn: Dale Dellutri

 

Applications must be received by October 1, 1984

== ==

 

"There were certain things that Dennis was looking for. He wanted students who showed a willingness to take calculated risks. those who stood out from the herd in some unconventional way had a leg up.... He was searching for people who enjoyed playing games of chance. He was looking for people who could think in terms of "odds." Think like a Vegas "handicapper"? You were more likely to get an interview.

 

Dennis and Eckhardt taught their students everything they needed in only two weeks to trade bonds, currencies, corn, oil, stocks, and all other markets... in a quiet office with no televisions, computers and only a few phones.

 

Dennis was honest about taking the majority of profits when he said in November 1983, right before launching the experiment, that there would be no charity involved. He viewed the experiment as a way to diversify his portfolio."

[Bakez]

Actually saw 3 books in Waterstones today similar to this, probably just flogging a dead horse, but 1 was concerned with the 'original' turtles and the other discussed the 'Million Dollar Traders' program on BBC2 a few years ago.

[drbubb]

Actually saw 3 books in Waterstones today similar to this, probably just flogging a dead horse, but 1 was concerned with the 'original' turtles and the other discussed the 'Million Dollar Traders' program on BBC2 a few years ago.

I am reading one of the Turtle Trading books now, and I have seen a Turtle Trading video, which greatly simplifies their system.

 

Can you say more about: 'Million Dollar Traders' program on BBC2 a few years ago

[Bakez]

It was a 3 part series where an apparantly successful hedge fund manager took I think 8 random people with just 2 attributes: 1) Good at mental arithmetic and 2) Able to work under pressure... put them on a crash course and then gave them £1million to trade with

 

It didnt go into trading strategy, but it seemed to be more focused on reacting to the news than any mechanical system. The program seemed to emphasise how important the ability to prevent pressure or bad trade losses cloud future judgement rather than being some sort of economics genius with 3 Phds which I think a lot of normal people reckon you need to be to trade.

 

First episode is here:

 

http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseacti...ideoid=56317671