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Spotted what looked like a nice entry to get long in the pre-market session at 10:17. Went long at 2404.5, I wasn't able to monitor the results due to work but on my way home I could see the market rallied up to 2413.50, however 2 minutes after the open I got stopped out at breakeven. I was looking for a continuation of yesterday's up move;

 

Vertical lines denote entry and exit;

Entryandexit-12.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

There were a couple of good signals on my indicators today but I wasn't watching the market the whole day, and missed them both, each were worth approx 6 points;

 

Sell signal on SPY at 16:25;

Screenshot2011-07-20at191422.png

 

Buy signal on NQ at 18:20;

ES1820.png

 

 

There was also a "Sam Seiden" style entry available to trade today;

Screenshot2011-07-20at205806.png

 

This type of entry is where there is a rally or sell-off, and price tries to retrace but is met with supply or demand, respectively. We see after the initial sell off from the open the price rallies back to 2396.5 (at 1) and fails to go higher before selling off further. Following this secondary sell-off an order to sell at 2396.50 would have been triggered once the price had rallied to point 2, where supply previously prevented the price going higher. This would have provided a nice entry for the sell-off down to 2381, seen later.

 

I had considered this earlier however I really shouldn't have been in front of the screens today at all, since I wasn't in the right mindset after a very poor night's sleep.

 

caffeine.jpg

Even this couldn't keep me awake

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Classic sell signal at 15:20 on E-Mini S&P;

Screenshot2011-07-21at152512.png

It's not clear from this chart but is when zoomed in.

 

I went short at 2403.75, stopped out shortly thereafter at 2407.25 for a 3.75 point loss. Usually once I get a signal I ensure the last bar on the chart is in the direction of the signal, in this case it was but only by 0.2 of a point. I may wait until the direction is more clear in the future.

 

Entry and exit;

Screenshot2011-07-22at055933.png

 

The market then rallied up to yesterday's high (not shown) and then sold off down to 2392.75, this was around a 50% retrace of the rally from the low, before meandering back up to 2401 by the closing bell.

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Sell signal at 19:20 on E-Mini NASDAQ;

Screenshot2011-07-25at191842.png

 

I was on the train home and lost internet connection, then I had a message on my laptop advising the battery was nearly out! After I managed to get back online I was waiting for a Heikin Ashi down candle before entering, then the battery on the laptop died!!! Eeeek!

 

I switched to my Iphone ThinkorSwim app, and saw what I was looking for, went short at 2431.75 with a stop at 2434. Once home and after a 10.5 point sell off I took account of previous support around the 2420 level and some higher volume coming in slowing the decent. Exited at 2421.25 for a 10.5 point gain.

 

Entry and exit;

Screenshot2011-07-25at212341.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

Interestingly the price stopped right at the point where a breakout occured, earlier on.

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Sell signal on E-Mini NASDAQ at 14:20;

Screenshot2011-07-27at185325.png

 

This signal came before the market open, I'd just got my systems ready by the open, and by the time I had cleared this as a valid signal 14:39, the market started selling off, moving away from the entry price of 2411.25, therefore I passed on it.

 

Potential entry point;

Screenshot2011-07-27at191246.png

 

The market sold off 38.75 points following this.

 

What a killer.

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Frustration2

 

Prior to the open today and up until about 30 minutes thereafter I was monitoring my indicator charts and saw nothing to warrant a trade. Later I see this;

 

A clear buy signal on E-Mini NASDAQ futures at 14:45;

BUYNQ1445.png

 

So the question is how on earth could I possibly miss such an obvious buy signal? Well the answer is, I didn't. Some time ago I noticed an issue with data whereby sometimes I would load and indicator chart, then reload it, and it would come out slightly different. It would occasionally change between two slightly different plots of the indicator chart. I've no idea why this happens and can only summise that there is a data quality issue at play.

 

I refresh the chart and what do I see, I see what I saw earlier on while I was monitoring my indicator charts;

Screenshot2011-07-28at185032.png

 

A different configuration with no buy signal.

 

My remedy to this issue some time ago had been to make a point of refreshing the charts regularly so I can see instances where this occurs and not be blindsided by them when they occur. Over time I seem to have overlooked this issue, partly due to the fact that it doesn't occur that often. This is going to be plastered on to my workstation somewhere from now on, to remind me to keep refreshing the charts to check, so I don't overlook it again.

 

It would have made for an almost perfect entry today, with a 40 point rally following that signal today.

 

Potential entry point;

Potentialentry.png

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Sell on E-MIni S&P at 16:25 whilst I was otherwise engaged in the 9-5;

Screenshot2011-07-29at213831.png

 

This was right on target, with the market selling off 20 points thereafter, shame I wasn't available to trade it.

 

Potential entry;

Screenshot2011-07-29at202846.png

 

 

Also a sell signal on E-Mini NASDAQ at 18:55;

NQ1855.png

 

I went short at 2373, I was then stopped out at 2375.75 for a 2.75 point loss.

 

Entry and exit;

Screenshot2011-07-29at203509.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

 

Once home and having access to all my screens I see there was some very clear divergence between E-Mini NASDAQ and key currencies pairs just prior to the 40 point rally earlier on.

E-Mini NASDAQ, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD chart;

Divergence-3.png

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Buy signal on E-Mini NASDAQ at 17:25;

NQ1725.png

 

Went long at 2326.75, market rallied a few points, moved stop to break even since it was a big down day therefore a high risk trade, market sold off back down to entry price stopping me out at breakeven.

 

 

Entry and exit;

Entryandexit-13.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

 

Buy signal on E-Mini S&P at 19:25;

ES1925.png

 

This one occurred while I was having my evening meal. Market rallied from the signal point at 2326.75 up to 2348.5, then back down to 2339.75, and then up to as high as 2353.50. Had I been available for it the move back down towards 2339.75 would have triggered my trailing stop for a 13.75 point gain.

 

It's so ******* frustrating to leave the screen for a few minutes and come back to see I missed a signal.

 

The solution of course is to never leave the screen.

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No signals today.

 

I took one discretionary trade, went short at 16:03 looking for a continuation of the move down following the retrace however the market only sold off for a few points, before starting to rally again. Went short at 2280.50, exited at 2277 for a 3.5 point gain.

 

Entry and exit;

Entryandexit-14.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

There was an excellent opportunity to go short, just a couple of minutes after 15:00, the market had rallied up to the pre-market high and encountered resistance there. I addition to this there was clear divergence when looking at E-Mini NASDAQ against key currencies.

 

 

E-Mini NASDAQ, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD chart using same timeframe as previous chart - 13:30 to 17:15;

Divergences.png

 

I was on my way home during this, without internet connectivity on the train so wasn't available to take it.

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The markets were like a schizophrenic bipolar monster that forgot to take his medicine - crazy, volatility was off the scale.

 

The nonfarm payrolls number was released at 13:30 (BST), I was on the train on my way home from work, it came in at 117K, 26K higher than expected.

Nonfarmpayrolls4225.png

 

The NASDAQ futures moved in a 42.25 point range inside 1 minute, an excellent example of why trading in front of news is a bad idea. Anyone short into that would have got blown away almost instantly.

 

Today was a rollercoaster of a day for the markets, VIX spiked up to 39.25, last seen in 2008/09 during the credit crisis.

 

 

Anyone trading amid this volatility must be crazy.

 

 

I had three trades today;

 

The first was what I thought looked like an opportunity to get onboard a developing flash crash. The E-Mini NASDAQ had been as low as 2180 in pre-market trading. The nonfarm payrolls number catapulted the NASDAQ from 2197 to 2239.25 at 13:30, the market then sold off down to 2211 before rising back up to touch the 2239 level. There then followed a strong bout of selling that got progressively steeper and steeper and steeper, I didn't want to miss a ring-side seat to a flash crash so I went short at 2179.50, the market kept selling off down to 2172 and stopped dead, I moved my stop to 2177.25 so I would at least get something out of if, the market rallied sharply taking out my stop for a 2.25 point gain.

 

Entry and exit (First red/green vertical lines)

exits.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

I then had a sell signal on E-Mini Dow Jones futures at 19:00;

YM1900.png

 

There were also sell signals on SPY and DIA at the same time.

 

In additon to this there was clear divergence between the NASDAQ and key currencies;

E-Mini NASDAQ, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

1855.png

 

Went short at 2213, the market sold off down to 2195.75, before rallying up taking out my trailing stop, filled at 2204.25 for an 8.75 point gain. The stop ought to have been trailed to 2203.75 but for some reason it wasn't, my platform was slow today, I guess the servers at ThinkorSwim must have been overloaded or something.

 

Entry and exit (Second red/green vertical lines)

exits.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

 

I then had a further sell signal on SPY at 19:50;

1950.png

 

Went short at 2195.50, the market sold off to 2186.5 before rallying back up taking out my trailing stop, filled at 2193.25. For this trade I actually used a 5 point trailing stop, mainly since it was close to the close, clearly something was not quite right at ThinkorSwim HQ since my 5 point trailing stop (held on their servers) ought to have trailed the last price, therefore as the price had been to 2186.5, the trailed stop ought to have been at 2191.50, but was actually 2192.50 when the market order to exit was triggered, so I only got out at 2193.5 for a 2.25 point gain (due to slippage). I may look at changing my trailing stop loss orders since in volatile conditions the trail point is far too slow to update, it doesn't keep up with the market at all. It's a shame the CME doesn't allow trailed stops held exchange side.

 

Entry and exit (Third red/green vertical lines)

exits.pngScreenshot2011-06-09at214301.png

 

 

Of course in hindsight the very obvious trade was to short the rally up to the pre-market high created on the nonfarm payroll market reaction, I did consider it at the time however I use charts that update on a 1 minute timescale and the next print of price on my chart was 7 points away from the pre-market high so I thought it had moved too far to enter short, of course the market tanked 59 points following my decision not to short at that point. I have gradually been discovering tick charts.

 

What are tick charts? These are explained here. Tick charts are nothing to do with the $TICK indicator that tells you how many stocks are "ticking" up or down by the way. Tick charts give you a much better feel of what the market is doing. In fact at one point I felt like going short based on the charts, I didn't, but I should have as the market sold off 13 points thereafter. Of course I'm new to the discretionary trading game having only previously taken trades based on my indicators, but it's an interesting avenue to explore further.

 

Also I found this interesting blog, it's about this mad guy who is devoting his life to becoming a futures trader, he's completely mad. Sometimes it's quite boring to read, but other times it's quite interesting.

It can be found here

 

or

 

HERE

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My primary flaw at the moment is concentration. Sometimes I have missed signals to trade whilst reading/watching news, going away from the screens for a few minutes or whatever it may be. There are far too many times when I miss signals. Had I taken all of the signals available on my indicators since the start I would be up by several orders of magnitude. I've been following a brilliant blog by another daytrader - http://bankrobbertrades.blogspot.com.

It's a rich and varied resource detailing many aspects of what it takes to be a successful trader. Some time ago I wrote about the market being like a mirror.

 

The thoughts, emotions, and beliefs of all market participants are collected together and expressed in the form of price. A continuous stream of opportunity and risk. A perfect reflection of reality.

 

Many have hopes that x will continue higher, their collective thoughts are expressed in the form of price, their hopes may be overwhelmed by the fears of the sellers, wave after wave of sellers can overtake the hopes of the buyers, forcing the prices down, reinforcing the price, reflexively reinforcing the fears of the sellers.

 

The market is nothing but a mirror. And, if you look hard, you will see your reflection in it. A reflection of your beliefs, your emotions, your hopes, your fears, all reflected back at you. It reflects the collective mind but also the individual mind, and that is what makes it so fascinating.

 

But also the market is a teacher. James Dines stated an old Wall Street saying is that the market will find your weaknesses. It's very true, the market shows you your weaknesses, it throws down the gauntlet and challenges you to face them head on, and overcome them.

 

The blog linked about includes a link to a book by Theron Q Dumont - The Power of Concentration. Looking very useful so far.

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Sell signal on E-Mini S&P futures at 14:45 today;

SellsignalES1445.png

 

Also clear divergence between E-Mini NASDAQ and key currency pairs;

 

 

E-Mini NASDAQ, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD

Divergence-4.png

 

Issues with connectivity meant I didn't go short until 14:47, filled at 2147.75, the market continued selling off before spiking up to 2150.75, taking out my 8 point trailing stop for a 1 point loss. Very unlucky, I was kicked off the sell-off due to the volatility. The sell signal came at the perfect spot but the volatility took me out. If I get another short signal in the coming days I'll just use a fixed stop rather than a trailing stop, in order to counter this type of event.

 

Entry and exit;

Entryandexit-15.png

 

It was a near 50 point sell off following the entry...

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PD,

Have you noticed the correlation between the Global stock market falls, and solar flares? -

there were three big ones in the last few days

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PD,

Have you noticed the correlation between the Global stock market falls, and solar flares? -

there were three big ones in the last few days

 

(from DrB's diary)

 

There were warnings of a solar storm back on August 3rd:

 

As Sun Storms Ramp Up, Electric Grid Braces for Impact

 

When the cloud reaches our magnetosphere, its charged particles become electromagnetically coupled to Earth's magnetic field, generating large electrical currents millions of amperes strong, Pulkkinen said. The sprawling electrical grid on Earth's surface then acts like an antenna, allowing these currents to flow into transmission lines.

 

"These storms are by their basic nature global," Pulkkinen added. But the risks to electrical grids are greatest at higher latitudes, since the largest electric currents are funneled toward Earth around the Poles.

 

For instance, in 1989 the transmission system for Canada's Hydro Quebec electricity provider collapsed during a solar storm, leaving millions of people without power for nine hours or more. And the "Halloween storms" of 2003 triggered blackouts in the city of Malmö, Sweden, and likely caused transformer failures in South Africa.

 

"Because they are located closer to the magnetic North Pole, Canadian utilities are deeply involved in monitoring geomagnetically induced currents, modeling impacts for vulnerability, and refining their operational protocols," EPRI's Lordan said.

/see: http://news.national...city-grid-risk/

 

More recently,

There have been news reports of three large storms...

 

large.jpg

 

Latest Global Crisis: Solar Storms Are Set to Hit the Earth

 

UJALA SEHGAL AUG 06, 2011

 

It certainly seems like the world has been under attack lately. Now that "Debtaggedon" is over, Reuters is reporting that there have been three large explosions from the Sun over the past few days, and that "sun storms" are set to hit the Earth. The U.S. government, which is pretty pressed for time as it is right now, is warning "users of satellite, telecommunications and electric equipment to prepare for possible disruptions over the next few days." Or, as National Geographic informs us: "Storms are brewing about 93 million miles (150 million kilometers) away, and if one of them reaches Earth, it could knock out communications, scramble GPS, and leave thousands without power for weeks to months."

/more: http://www.theatlant...it-earth/40922/

 

 

ADD WE are certainly seeing a fire storm in global stock markets.

 

Sadly, I was prepared and "loaded to the gills" with puts last year,

and the event hardly came - and instead came this year, it seems.

 

Fortunately, I retained some long dated puts

 

Could there be a connection?

 

Interesting that these London riots/fires are breaking out at the same time too.

 

LASCO20011001.gif

 

It would be interesting to see if any studies had been done regards Coronal Mass Ejections and stocks. I know sun spots have been looked at before.

 

On missing the correction, I was very close to buying very cheap way out of the money 2200 strike puts on NASDAQ futures towards the end of July. It would have worked out even better than my silver trade earlier this year. I'd been looking at the relationship between the NASDAQ, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD and AUD/USD. The currency pairs were suggesting lower equity prices although AUD/USD wasn't acting quite as I expected. I was too focussed on AUD/USD, whereas if I'd simply taken the time to look at the NASDAQ against DJIA, Russell 2000 and S&P 500 the picture was far clearer, everything was diverging lower and away from the NASDAQ. I'll post the charts later.

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[From "Are we about to see a "Silver style" correction in gold?" thread]

 

On checking gold futures this morning, they spiked to $1774.80, and are now slightly lower at $1761.

 

Gold futures - 1 year chart non log;

Screenshot2011-08-09at060400.png

 

What this chart shows is volume, both in standard format at the bottom of the chart, along with volume plotted in profile across price in blue. The further the blue is to the right of the chart for a given price level, the higher the volume has been at that price level.

 

 

There are similarities between the chart above, and a chart I posted of Silver futures on 21st April this year on the "$50-ish Peak in Silver Coming? Hunting the Top" thread.

 

Silver futures - 1 year non log (21st April 2011);

Screenshot2011-04-22at083252.png

 

 

 

On the log chart the move is quite striking.

 

Gold futures - 1 year log;

Screenshot2011-08-09at062502.png

 

Similarities to the parabola we saw in silver?

 

 

 

CBOE gold volatility;

Screenshot2011-08-09at063847.png

 

This volatility chart is up to date as of yesterday's close. on 3rd November 2010 Gold volatility spiked to it's high of the year, this preceeded a 5.6% move higher in gold over the following 4 days before a $95 correction.

 

 

The GLD/GDX ratio is at the same level as it was during the bottom in stocks on 6th March 2009;

Screenshot2011-08-09at065632.png

 

 

Realistically a $100 correction in gold would not be a surprise given the nature of the rise.

 

 

Also;

 

This is the ratio of (30 year treasury bond futures / E-Mini Gold futures) - 2 year;

Screenshot2011-08-09at070317.png

 

 

Since the correction in stocks started Gold is massively outperforming 30 year treasuries. Surprise CME margin hikes on gold could temporarily resolve that "problem" for the US Govt.

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Well I was having a fine day until earlier on. I tried to place some trades and a this message advising - "REJECTED - You cannot open new positions with this account". I thought it was some tech problem with ThinkorSwim. Then they sent me this message;

 

We Are Discontinuing Brokerage Operations, We want you to know that after careful consideration, we have made the difficult business decision that we will no longer be able to conduct brokerage operations in the United Kingdom, effective August 8, 2011. Unfortunately, that means you will have to transfer your brokerage business to another firm prior to August 22, 2011; otherwise, we will need to liquidate and close your account ending in ******* on that date. Please accept our sincere regrets for any inconvenience this may cause you. What you need to know: Effective on August 8, 2011, your account will be restricted to closing transactions only. You will not be able to open any new positions or provide additional funding to your account (unless you must meet a margin call).On August 22, 2011, if you have not yet arranged to transfer your holdings to another brokerage firm, we reserve the right to begin liquidation and close your account.We know that this decision may be causing an inconvenience for you thus where applicable thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade will assist you by paying for account closure fees or assisting with the cost of your wire transfer fee. Please let us know if we can assist you with this process. For more information, or if you have any questions, please contact us at support@thinkorswim.com. We are available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Please know that we fully appreciate your past business and regret any inconvenience this may be causing you.Sincerely, thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade thinkorswim, Division of TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC/NFA. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and the Toronto-Dominion Bank. Copyright 2011 TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Use with permission. www.thinkorswim.com This e-mail is sent by a financial firm and contains information that may be privileged and confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete the e-mail and notify us immediately. The risk of loss in trading securities, options, futures and forex can be substantial. Clients must consider all relevant risk factors, including their own personal financial situation, before trading. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the Options Disclosure Document: http://www.optionscl...cter-risks.jsp. A copy can be requested via email at support@thinkorswim.com or via mail to 600 W. Chicago Ave., #100, Chicago, IL 60654-2597. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, as well as its own unique risk factors. Forex investments are subject to counter-party risk, as there is no central clearing organization for these transactions. Please read the Forex Risk Disclosure (http://www.nfa.futur...brary/forex.pdf) before considering the trading of this product. A forex dealer can be compensated via commission and/or spread on forex trades. TD Ameritrade is subsequently compensated by the forex dealer. Futures and forex accounts are not protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, recommendations, statistics, or other technical data, will be supplied upon request. thinkorswim, Division of TD Ameritrade, Inc. Member SIPC FINRA NFA 2011 © TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc.

 

It's not such a big deal having to switch broker, I'm sure I can find one with better commissions and a faster data-feed (ThinkorSwim is quite slow sometimes). What is a massive blow is the loss of ProphetCharts. ProphetCharts is program within the ThinkorSwim platform that allows you to create an indicator based on a formula or a ratio. All my indicators that I created about a year ago are calculated and displayed using Prophetcharts. They were developed on Prophetcharts. I had thought Prophetcharts was owned by a separate company and that ThinkorSwim built their program into the ThinkorSwim platform but TD Ameritrade (**** them) now also own Prophetcharts and I've been told I will not be able to use this any longer. From 22nd August I will no longer have access to my indicators - I can't believe it. I'm not sure what I'm going to do yet. I have grave doubts that I will find another platform that will be capable of plotting my indicators. I am a member of another forum www.bigmiketrading.com, it's full of traders with programming experience so maybe they can help me find something that will be able to do what I need.

 

Devastated.

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Contact Prophetcharts direct and ask whether it is possible to purchase a single end user licence or similar.

 

They may possibly still offer the technology (butter them up a bit with praise first) to people like yourself who already use their software

 

After all, money is money and you never let it walk out the door....well you shouldn't

 

Good Luck

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Contact Prophetcharts direct and ask whether it is possible to purchase a single end user licence or similar.

 

They may possibly still offer the technology (butter them up a bit with praise first) to people like yourself who already use their software

 

After all, money is money and you never let it walk out the door....well you shouldn't

 

Good Luck

 

Thanks

 

I contacted them last night, they advised I would be able to take Prophet charts separate from the platform (contrary to what ThinkorSwim told me) as part of their Investools package. They want $700 up front then $59 per month and unbelievably they told me they couldn't guarantee the data-feed quality. I didn't even ask about data-feed quality, they just threw that in at the end of their sales pitch. I've heard many complaints from people about the ThinkorSwim data quality and speed and experienced it myself using Prophet charts so I take all of this as a sign to move my business elsewhere. Over at www.bigmiketrading.com (BMT) Mike and another poster has advised I should be able to do what I need using a platform called NinjaTrader so I've applied for an account today with Mirus Futures. The data feed is Zen-Fire. These three came out top in a survey BMT held looking at the best futures broker, platform and data-feed for 2010, so although it doesn't feel like it right now it looks like I'll end up with a more professional set-up specifically geared to futures trading.

 

I'll need to learn how to program my indicators on the platform and it's PC only so I'll need to look at PC emulation software for my Mac. I'm anticipating a few caffeine induced late night hair pulling sessions before I'm geared up to trade again. I'm also on holiday in Nice with Miss PositiveDeviant for 2 weeks from the 19th August so it's likely to be a little while before I'm trading again.

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After some searching online today I found out that ThinkorSwim license an abridged version of their platform to the CBOE for papertrading, and it's free to use after registering your email address;

 

http://www.cboe.com/...papermoney.aspx

 

The data is delayed but at least this means I can still use their chart tools for end of day analysis. It also comes with ProphetCharts and I've already saved some of my indicators into it, I won't be able to use them to trade intra-day though, due to the delay.

 

It's quite a relief to have found this. It's not possible to save the chart settings on the main chart function so I'll just have to keep it open all the time so I'd don't have to change the darn settings every time I want to use it.

 

This is from the CBOE's web based "Paper Money" platform:

 

Gold futures;

Screenshot2011-08-11at223035.png

 

Why couldn't the guys at ThinkorSwim tell me about this?

 

I asked them the specific question -

 

"Is there any way I can access a demo account from the UK?"

 

"No sir, there is not."

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