Perishabull Posted December 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2011 No trades yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2011 No trades yesterday, currently considering whether to adapt the existing strategy or look at trading different types of set-ups. Between now and the start of January next year I will have limited time to trade so there may not be many trades, if any, taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted December 21, 2011 Report Share Posted December 21, 2011 Do you do anything other than intra-day scalps? It seems to me the hardest way to try to make it as a trader. I would have thought that divergences are more meaningful the longer the timeframe? And slippage is more of a factor if you are trading for such small moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2011 Do you do anything other than intra-day scalps? It seems to me the hardest way to try to make it as a trader. I would have thought that divergences are more meaningful the longer the timeframe? And slippage is more of a factor if you are trading for such small moves. Well I'm not intending to just scalp a just couple of points here and there, with my recent strategy I've been seeking 10 point moves in NASDAQ futures, but I haven't gained many of those. The backtest I did worked very well but it hasn't proved very profitable in actual trading. Intra-day trading probably is up there in terms of the challenge involved however I've compounded that somewhat by looking to trade turning points - probably the hardest type of trading. I've built up some tools in my time trading that work very well for me in terms of finding turning points on daily timeframe charts - however they seem to be less effective on an intraday basis. I find divergences between different markets often lead into moves in the equity markets, and IMO the magnitude of the divergence is the most important factor. Slippage is only an issue if you're trading very large numbers of contracts. My goal is to create a consistently profitable strategy, then gradually increase the number of contracts over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted December 21, 2011 Report Share Posted December 21, 2011 Well I'm not intending to just scalp a just couple of points here and there, with my recent strategy I've been seeking 10 point moves in NASDAQ futures, but I haven't gained many of those. My goal is to create a consistently profitable strategy, then gradually increase the number of contracts over time. Just throwing this out loud to you, but would you have made more profitable trades holdinglonger periods or is this not practical with your system? Was just thinking as an alternative to increasing the number of contracts. p.s your river shots are very nice, though bet it's just a wee bit cold up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 22, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2011 Just throwing this out loud to you, but would you have made more profitable trades holdinglonger periods or is this not practical with your system? Was just thinking as an alternative to increasing the number of contracts. p.s your river shots are very nice, though bet it's just a wee bit cold up there No, with the recent strategy the holding period was defined by whether the market went in a favourable direction or not. Last winter was unbelievable, a little taste of Siberia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 24, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2011 Merry Christmas folks! Good trading to you in 2012! MP3 : http://www.carlvasta.com/christmas_carols320.mp3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 31, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2011 HAPPY NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2012 I've been back to notes of my conversation with Jeff Quinto and decided for the first time in my life, to trade a simulated account. His advice was essentially you shouldn't be trading futures on a live account until you can consistently make money on a weekly basis. I've been trading on the sim the last few days, just taking trades on a discretionary basis, without using any indicators, and I'm down 34 points already. I really admire those guys who can trade that way and make a living, it seems like the hardest way to trade. I'll have to come up with a new strategy...and then try that on sim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2012 I woke this morning, checked the markets and felt there may be a good opportunity for a short, so went short E-Mini NASDAQ as of 6.40am, (although this year I've been trading on a sim account, this is a live trade on my account.) NASDAQ futures - 1 year; Looks over extended. This is from M3 Financial Sense blog; I put the trade on just after the Dollar Index bounced off the support level; I also have sell signal on my DBDT indicator that triggered on the close yesterday for the S&P 500; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2012 I opted to trail the stop by 10 points since I felt it could develop into a big down day. The market sold off down to as low as 2358 then rallied up through 2368 taking me out for a 16.5 point gain. Entry and exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 This is the ratio of Crude Oil to Natural Gas (Using Dow Jones sub-Indexes) - 2 year chart; I've only just found this and it looks like a parabola to me, my impression is that it's more likely to point to a forthcoming low in Natural Gas than a high in Crude Oil but whilst the equity markets are making new highs, Crude Oil is not. You have to go back to 2002 to find a point when Natural Gas was cheaper, it's almost closed at the low of the decade today. NAtural Gas - 2002 to present; The indicator in grey beneath the chart is the Disparity Index, spikes to the top of the range can point to highs, spikes to the bottom, lows. Sentiment for Natural Gas is extremely low; Chart fromwww.sentimentrader.com The price can only go so low, it would be interesting to know the average cost to extract it from the ground. Is Natural Gas going to hit a low very soon? It may be worth looking at Natural Gas futures here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Spotted a good opportunity for a short this evening; My indicator diverged from the market, and a sharp move up in the NASDAQ at 18:23 was not correlated with the currency markets, suggesting a fake out move. Went short at 2433.75; Market sold off down to 2426, moved stop to 2429.75. The market has been trading in a tight range today so I kept a reasonably close stop, enough to get something out of the trade if hit without being too close to the price, to allow the possiblity of it running further. The market rallied back up, taking me out for a 4 point gain. Hindsight is wonderful folks, clearly the point to exit was around 2426 since the market had sold off down to that level and rallied from there three times previously today. This was a live trade on my account. I have been taking quite a lot of trades on sim since the start of the year however I will not post any of those trades on my blog. (I'm using the sim to experiment with different types of trading, and if I see a good probability set up, I'll be trading it on my live account not the sim account). I was always very leery of trading on the sim however it's actually proving quite useful to practice on. I'm still mulling over a new approach to use, it may well transpire that I use a variety of different approaches together, depending on the situation - that's what I'm thinking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 There have been a couple of occasions recently where I've been sounding out potential trades however despite doing the analysis the trades weren't taken. Both of these were excellent opportunities, there is little point in giving specific details, suffice to say it has been something that's occured occasionally before. I've been thinking about the reasons behind this and decided to create a more disciplined approach that clearly separates - the Analysis - the Signal - and the Trade (The AST process). It makes sense to define the process to enable clearer more structured thinking, a more professional approach. All the value in my trading is really created when the Analysis is done and a Signal is defined, the Trade being the final step to complete the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted January 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2012 the Perception of your Psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 4, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2012 I've not had much time to post or trade recently due to some personal health and legal issues, but they are mostly resolved now, nothing serious. the Perception of my Psychology Over time writing a journal I have noticed that quite often I tend to pose questions at turning points, that point to the truth. e.g. [At the 2011 top in silver] Is this the type of over-emotional response you might see near some form of top? from post http://www.greenener...ndpost&p=213020 [On the top in silver marking a top in equity markets] 3rd May 2011 since Silver's rise could be said to be correlated to excess liquidity in the market, (and it may be finished for now) could this be a general marker for commodities and the equity markets? from post http://www.greenener...ndpost&p=214123 This was one day after the top in the S&P500; S&P500 futures - weekly chart [On the sharp dive in Natural Gas] Is Natural Gas going to hit a low very soon? from post http://www.greenener...56 It hit a low within two days, although it's not yet clear whether this is a major low. [On the situation with Silver] The emotions of silver bulls and North Koreans are correlating 1 to 1 right now. [/YouTube] Surely this must be the low. post from http://www.greenener...85 And that was the day of the low, although I bought GDXJ instead of silver. This last example was personally very interesting for me since the post was originally intended as a post to mock those holding silver, by suggesting that they were all devastated, since silver had nearly halfed since the top, and many will have held on all the way along. However I realised that since I was correlating silver bulls with North Koreans 1 to 1 , and that since the North Koreans had hit rock bottom with the death of their leader, this was likely to also mean a low for silver. Particularly so as I realised I was becoming engaged in the process of creating a situation with a potentially ironic outcome. If I'd have simply posted the joke, then clearly, paradoxically, the joke would have been on me since by engaging in the process of mocking others, ironically, it would have been done at the expense of exploiting the opportunity. (There was a lot of abuse hurled at Romans Holiday by those holding silver, and sometimes this was done by people who should have been selling their silver, rather than holding onto it as it declined, whilst trying to make a joke of another. - A similar situation containing paradox and irony.) It would seem that truth can be found by asking a big question, or by being perceptive to situations that could lead to an ironic outcome. In some ways it could be viewed that I reversed the paradox (by buying GDJX) to create the opposite of the ironic outcome (making gains as opposed to trying make satircal comedy, and missing an opportunity). I hope this makes sense to those reading this, it's difficult to explain well. (There is another element to this that I may write about later and that is the divergence between short and long term outcomes and how these can diverge into complete opposites on a long enough timeline - another paradox) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2012 Three trades so far this month; 3rd Feb Breakeven 7th Feb 0.25 point loss 8th Feb 0.75 point loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2012 Spotted what looked like a good opportunity to go short at 6.35am, went short; Closed at 13:30 for a gain of 12 points. Will post more on this trade later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2012 Big move down in Copper today -3% Pop up in the Dollar Index Also noticed large blocks of NASDAQ futures changing hands today, running into hundreds at a time, more than I typically see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2012 Will post more on this trade later. The Dollar Index was making a sustained move higher that looked on target to eclipse the recent high at 78.85, the main reason to short the NASDAQ. I have a couple of extra screens these days, I usually keep the Dollar Index on one and the following on another; AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NQ; Quite often you can get a lead into how things are going to develop by watching how they interact. I also watch these futures; NQ (Emini NASDAQ), ES (E-Mini S&P500), YM (E-Mini Dow) and TF (E-Mini Russell); Again, it can be interesting watching for divergences. I find it very interesting, you can see in this chart above that NQ is correlated 1 to 1 with YM at the start of the chart, and this correlation gradually breaks down as the correlation between NQ and ES gradually increases. Then at 3pm this process reverses, the NQ YM correlation seems to near 1-1 again, right around the high of the day session, before it then breaks down, along with the market in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2012 I'm starting to put some of my observations into a new trading plan where I use different types of set up depending on the situation. Currency market divergence setup This is a good example showing how the currency markets can lead into turns in the equity markets. At point A EUR/USD and AUD/USD are diverging downward contrary to the trend in NQ, then at point B the EUR/USD and AUD/USD divergence becomes more marked, then 2 minutes later the turn is signalled by AUD/JPY diverging sharply lower and away from NQ. This is the point where the new downtrend in equity markets began this day. And here with a chart of the NASDAQ over the same timeframe; Currency market convergence setup; Look at the small rectangle, that's the high of the day. I've seen this a number of times now where 3 of the 4 converge together very tightly to form an upside down "V" at a top or a V at a bottom, I drew this as it happened that day, and went short not long thereafter, 1 point from the high of the day, using this (although that day it didn't work particularly well since there wasn't much of a sell off thereafter). It's almost as if at key points the correlations between the markets themselves make a high or low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 NQ (Emini NASDAQ), ES (E-Mini S&P500), YM (E-Mini Dow) and TF (E-Mini Russell); This is from 30/12 /11 to present; You can see that the Russell has clearly stalled, peaking on 3rd Feb, although there is no break of trend yet. The Dow has outperformed the S&P500 for the majority of the rally since the start of the year however this changed on 3rd Feb and it has started underperforming the S&P500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted February 13, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2012 Further divergence set up; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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