romans holiday Posted February 28, 2012 Report Share Posted February 28, 2012 Of the many insights in this book, one of the points in it is that many two-choice decisions are often split between one being intellect based and one being emotion based. That really resonated with me, and I think is particularly true in trading. The really great traders capitalise on their own intellect, taking advantage of the emotions of other traders. Ha! Just read a biography on W B Yeats the romantic poet. Being a modern romantic he was very much split between the objective and subjective. This worked out in Irish nationalism on the one hand, and his dabbling in the occult on the other. Take Solomon's Seal above. In his later philosophical unity, he split it into two intersecting moving triangles, two gyres, one representing the objective and the other the subjective. Interesting this search for unity in the philosophic or poetic mind. Markets the teacher? Sounds like a dialectic between you and the market. I guess it comes down to whether you see wisdom in crowds or just dumb collective behaviour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2012 Took a short at 19:12, filled at 2639.25, market rallied taking out my stop for a 1.5 point loss; Since the Russell 2000 was selling off I thought it was looking quite bearish, I didn't have a signal per se but my indicator was headed lower. In hindsight I was just looking for an excuse to get short. It's a marathon, not a sprint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2012 Opportunity for a short at 15:09, went short, filled at 2640.75. Market sold off following positive Jan factory orders and postive ISM non manufacturing for February. A classic sell the news scenario. I had divergence on my currency divergence chart and also a divergence sell signal on my customer indicator; I closed it after a 4 point gain. This ladies and gentlemen is a classic example of how not to trade. It was a very well executed entry married to an incredibly badly executed exit. I didn't get a particularly great night's rest last night so I suppose I shouldn't kick myself too hard. I wasn't really in the mood for trading today and I wanted to just get some points and switch the screens off, the correct decision was of course just to move the stop much closer to the price and let the market decide whether the position continues or not. It's a beautiful sunny day outside, I'm off out for a nice walk and some fresh air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 5, 2012 Report Share Posted March 5, 2012 There was an opening GAP UP in Vix. They normally get filled, so the market may not fall apart completely... Perhaps not just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2012 The den of tranquility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 5, 2012 Report Share Posted March 5, 2012 Hey PD, Beautiful view! No wonder you are getting out of trades early to get outside! Once read about some traders who traded from the bunker, a blacked out air conditioned noise free room ! only trading screens Allowed in the room with a virtually blacked out low lit toilet next door to maintain the same ambience once in there they where trading WITH NO DISTRACTIONS! Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 5, 2012 Report Share Posted March 5, 2012 The den of tranquility Actually, I think I prefer yours to this set-up If you don't object, I am going to start a thread: What's your trading post look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 5, 2012 Report Share Posted March 5, 2012 Actually, I think I prefer yours to this set-up If you don't object, I am going to start a thread: What's your trading post look like. Is that yours DB? R. ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 5, 2012 Hey PD, Beautiful view! Actually it's a poster of a beautiful view taped to the window. Only kidding, yes the view definitely helps when trading. Proper sleep the night before also tends to help I am going to start a thread: What's your trading post look like. Yeah, it might be interesting to see some of the others' rooms. Apparently Goldfinger's set up is an altar, a cushion, some incense sticks and a giant cardboard cut out of Jim Sinclair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2012 from Zerohedge; "Stocks, Precious Metals Spike On Report Fed Considering "Sterilized" QE While we have yet to see the actual report, almost certainly emanating from Jon Hilsenrath, it appears that the QE3 rumormill has started, initially with speculation that the Fed's activity will be merely "sterilized" or more Twist-type purchases, unclear however if in TSYs or also in MBS. Via the WSJ: Fed Officials consider "sterilized" option for Future bond buying Operation Twist Reprise, QE Other Options For Fed Bond Still Unclear Whether Fed Will Launch Another Bond-Buy As a reminder, yesterday we said that according to the EURUSD, the implied market expectation is for a $750 billion QE out of the Fed. However, that is for unsterilized balance sheet expansion. If the Fed goes ahead and does not grow its balance sheet (hence "sterilized"), it may well be EURUSD, and thus risk, and gold, negative, as no new money will enter the market for actual speculation. Which perhaps is precisely what the Fed is planning, as every incremental dollar now goes into Crude first, and everything else later. In other words: this is a very big risk off indicator as no new money will be available to pump up stocks, and all this will do is try to make longer-dated yields even lower, an approach that has proven to be an abysmal failure to date. This also means that while the ECB is borrowing ever more and more tricks from the FRBNY Goldman team, such as massive Discount Window usage, the Fed is now using the ECB playbook when it comes to selective easing without generating inflation - the US goes German. Of course, there is no such thing as truly sterilized intervention, as ultimately the Fed will merely fund the banks indirectly in some other way, to give them the dry powder needed to sterilize and generate the required ROEs without which their stocks would plunge." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 Short entry at 16:48, filled at 2631.75. Had some divergence showing on my custom indicator, suggesting a high; Stopped out for a loss of 1.25 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 I am adding to my puts again, after profit taking on the day of the Big Gap down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 RANsquawk reckons UBS algos are on a buy program right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 RANsquawk reckons UBS algos are on a buy program right now... How much does the service cost you PD? How reliable do you find it? When you say Ubs are buying which market were you referring to ? What time were you informed of the buying info? Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 How much does the service cost you PD? How reliable do you find it? When you say Ubs are buying which market were you referring to ? What time were you informed of the buying info? Regards ML Yeah it's good for example there was a news story earlier that they picked up from Sky in Greece advising that the participation in the Greek PSI deal had reached over 90%, this is likely to have been leaked to Sky in Greece before the market had it as markets rallied sharply afterwards, and the source to Sky was unconfirmed. I get the audio stream and text headlines from the pro service, you'd need to negotiate with them on price, I'm not willing to say how much I pay apart from it's less than you think. It didn't specify the market, just equity futures, was about 17:30. from Zerohedge; Excerpt; "Greek "Fresh Start" Bonds Face Immediate 80% Loss, 98% Probability Of Redefault As 'news' breaks of over 80% participation in the Greek PSI deal and the apparent optimism that this is somehow a good thing, we note that our analysis of what would happen from two months ago was exactly spot on. As the FT reports, "financial markets were already betting Greece would default again in the future. Grey market “when issued” pricing for the 20 new bonds were ranging from 17 to 28 cents on the euro, a highly distressed level, according to indicative quotes", which just happens to almost perfectly coincide with our view: "since the Greek Debt/GDP will still be over 120% according to another set of rumors (after all, only a small portion of the country's debt is really getting impaired), it is 100% safe to say that in 30 years Greece will still go bankrupt. So let's say it deserves a comparable yield to its current 30 year bonds, which are priced to yield about 23%. We are being a little generous and estimate the fresh start bonds will yield 20% post break. Which means that according to a generic bond yield calc, the price on the fresh start bonds post reorg will be... 17.9 cents of par, or immediate losses of over 80% the second these bonds break for trading from par." Simply put, as soon as these 'new' bonds hit the secondary market they will reprice from 'par' down to around 20 cents as expectations of default sooner rather than later (and with 98% inevitability given grey market CDS and bond pricing) leave Greek bondholders with more losses to come and the Greek people inevitably facing tougher austerity to get the next PSI deal through in perhaps six months to a year... Furthermore, for those looking at the trend of participation news today and expecting it to rise any further, just as we have noted before many times, the FT confirms: In addition, the status of the 14 per cent of Greek debt not issued as Greek-law bonds, most of which are bonds governed by English law, remained unclear. According to a confidential analysis prepared for eurozone finance minsters last month, 95 per cent of all bondholders must be included in the debt restructuring for Greece debt to reach 120 per cent of economic output by 2020, the target of its new €130bn bailout. Greece cannot reach that target with Greek-law bonds alone, and Athens may need to wait until a meeting of foreign-law bondholders at the end of the month to know how many will join the restructuring." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 How much does the service cost you PD? How reliable do you find it? When you say Ubs are buying which market were you referring to ? What time were you informed of the buying info? Regards ML Talking Forex do a good squawk, so i am told, i don't use a squawk. Although Forex specific so depending what you need it for maybe try their trial for £1 first month then cancel with 1 month notice. They charge £20 a month. http://talking-forex.com/ Ransquawk do a free 1 week trial i think, they used to anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 8, 2012 Report Share Posted March 8, 2012 [/indent] Simply put, as soon as these 'new' bonds hit the secondary market they will reprice from 'par' down to around 20 cents as expectations of default sooner rather than later (and with 98% inevitability given grey market CDS and bond pricing) leave Greek bondholders with more losses to come and the Greek people inevitably facing tougher austerity to get the next PSI deal through in perhaps six months to a year... Whoops! That's a huge additional haircut! No wonder some HF's will be trying to trigger the CDS insurance so they can recover more. If the numbers don't get to 90%, there are bound to be some "interesting" negotiations and lawsuits. If they get to 88%, someone is going to be able to sell a 2% holding at a fat premium to market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 9, 2012 Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 Talking Forex do a good squawk, so i am told, i don't use a squawk. Although Forex specific so depending what you need it for maybe try their trial for £1 first month then cancel with 1 month notice. They charge £20 a month. http://talking-forex.com/ Ransquawk do a free 1 week trial i think, they used to anyway. Cheers PD and N1234, I will have a look at them both early next week. Thanks for the info and the great thread! Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 Had a long at 20:34, filled at 2640.75. Bit late in the day however there have been many late day rallies previously and I had a signal to buy. I held on until 21:12, 3 minutes before the CME futures markets close, for a gain of 2 points. Entry and exit There was a story on RANsquawk that ISDA had effectively declared that Greece had indeed been through a credit event and therefore CDS would pay out and the market did nothing whatsoever, this was a situation where RAN seemed to get the news way ahead of the market. I don't typically chase news stories but I did have a sell signal forming just prior to the sell off however I couldn't fully confirm it as a sell signal (there had also been several false alarms earlier in the day), by the time it was apparent as a sell signal it was too late. The market only sold off a few points anyway, surprisingly. Technical analysis of the NASDAQ today; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 9, 2012 Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 Hi PD, When you enter these trades how confident do you feel? Does the confidence vary from trade to trade. Ie do some feel like real bangers and do you apply more risk capital to these? Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 Hi PD, When you enter these trades how confident do you feel? Does the confidence vary from trade to trade. Ie do some feel like real bangers and do you apply more risk capital to these? Regards ML It does vary, typically if you enter and feel blase then that often results in a loss whereas others you enter and immediately think it's wrong and it works out. Emotions are typically 180 degrees wrong in other words, no doubt why so many lose, but then you shouldn't be trading based on emotion anyway. I have a set plan to both up the number of contracts and I'm working on ideas to increase during a trade, when it's working out. If you are interested in futures trading you should check out "Phantom of the Pits", a short book written by a pit trader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2012 I love this image; Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images I got it printed and hung it on the door to my trading room, I got it printed by one of those companies that do these types of things. Anyway, it wasn't the best quality (since I got the image from an internet search) and I wanted it larger so I ordered a large print from the owner of the image, it came through and I took it to my local art shop to be framed today. The lady owner of the shop pointed to the picture and said; "Ahhhhhhh, so you're in here somewhere aren't you?" "You got it in one", I said. Not strictly correct (but I am very much in that picture). A great moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 10, 2012 Report Share Posted March 10, 2012 Hi PD, Cheers for the trading book link will have a good read of it! Loved the picture,I will be the uy just out of shot looking over the pit watching which way the heard is running! However I do get the gist of the chaos of markets and looking for direction! Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 11, 2012 Report Share Posted March 11, 2012 Hi PD, how do you think the situation of insurance triggers will affect the markets this week? Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2012 Hi PD, how do you think the situation of insurance triggers will affect the markets this week? Regards ML I don't know. Bubb is far better placed to answer that, he used to head up a derivatives division for JP Morgan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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