drbubb Posted March 12, 2012 Report Share Posted March 12, 2012 I don't know. Bubb is far better placed to answer that, he used to head up a derivatives division for JP Morgan. Chase, actually I think there may be a mild impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 12, 2012 Report Share Posted March 12, 2012 I don't know. Bubb is far better placed to answer that, he used to head up a derivatives division for JP Morgan. Sorry to hound you here, but is that answer based on your lack of market understanding of how Greek debt restructuring will effect the various currency markets ? Or is it as a disciplined market analyst / technical analyst you want to have no preconceived view of cause and effect on markets movements and just wish to base market entry/exits solely from movements on the charts and your predefined indicators? Regards ML PS I wonder if DB got the position due to his exemplary man management skills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2012 Well I made a post I think in September last year advising the lofty heights the Euro enjoyed would not last. Using larger macro type events to decide how to initiate short term trades is probably not a good idea since its not always obvious how the market will react. I trade based on correlations between markets, mainly equity markets and currency markets but I'm also looking at bonds more these days. A mix of analysis and intuition seems to work well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 14, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2012 My GF owns Apple and is loving it, but for how much longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 VIX hit its low for the year recently; VXN OVX (Crude oil volatility) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 VIX hit its low for the year recently; A reverse Right shoulder on VIX might be what is needed to make and important Top in stocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 15, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Mabon mentioned he thought that Copper looked ready for a slide here... Copper futures; 1 year with volume profile 1 year with Linear Regression; 3 years with Linear Regression; DBDT indicator working on Copper; Copper - dollar Looks negative with DBDT moving lower while Copper moved higher on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hi PD, How do you find multicharts, do you write your own Algos or do you manually trade your indicators? I believe the language is derived from tradestation easy language have you ever programmed in this or used tradestation? Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 16, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2012 Hi PD, How do you find multicharts, do you write your own Algos or do you manually trade your indicators? I believe the language is derived from tradestation easy language have you ever programmed in this or used tradestation? Regards ML Multicharts is ideal for what I need, it's flexible, stable and it seems quite powerful too. It won quite a few awards and was recommended to me by a former programmer who is now a trader who advised that it's a very well written piece of software and the regular updates show they are engaged in the process of continually improving the product. It's used by CTAs and guys who manage accounts so it's not just some Fisher-Price retail platform. I trade partially based on indicators I wrote, I've programmed the main one I use into Multicharts using easy language. I don't have a programming background but I managed to figure it out after a while. Algos are way beyond me though. There's a free version available on their website, I think they do a 30 day trial still, although you'd need to get a trial with a data provider too to test it out. I was originally planning on just leasing a license for it on a monthly/quarterly basis but I was so impressed with it I bought a lifetime license. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 17, 2012 Report Share Posted March 17, 2012 Multicharts is ideal for what I need, it's flexible, stable and it seems quite powerful too. It won quite a few awards and was recommended to me by a former programmer who is now a trader who advised that it's a very well written piece of software and the regular updates show they are engaged in the process of continually improving the product. It's used by CTAs and guys who manage accounts so it's not just some Fisher-Price retail platform. I trade partially based on indicators I wrote, I've programmed the main one I use into Multicharts using easy language. I don't have a programming background but I managed to figure it out after a while. Algos are way beyond me though. There's a free version available on their website, I think they do a 30 day trial still, although you'd need to get a trial with a data provider too to test it out. I was originally planning on just leasing a license for it on a monthly/quarterly basis but I was so impressed with it I bought a lifetime license. Cheers PD, I have decided to give trading a go but wont have the time until probably October this year. I have looked at tradestation and can get a free trial if I open an account and deposit a few dollars with them, I need to clarify this in greater detail. Then intention is to set this up and then try .....try to learn easylanguage over the coming months!!! Should be interesting to say the least! Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 17, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2012 Cheers PD, I have decided to give trading a go but wont have the time until probably October this year. I have looked at tradestation and can get a free trial if I open an account and deposit a few dollars with them, I need to clarify this in greater detail. Then intention is to set this up and then try .....try to learn easylanguage over the coming months!!! Should be interesting to say the least! Regards ML Good on you. I would advise you to start trading on a sim account at least to begin with for a few months. I also post on another forum that is specifically for traders www.bigmiketrading.com. It's a very good site dealing with many different aspects of the business, I suggest you check it out. The majority lose at futures trading I think because they approach what is a business environment with a gambler's mindset (Think working man going into a bookmakers = fatal outcome). The amateurs provide the profits for the professionals. Think about who you are aiming to take money from in the market. For me it's these people with the gambling mindset, that are unlikely to consider such things as correlations with other markets. These are the people that are the last into a trend you know, that sort of thing, the people that get caught long just as the market turns. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ The following is "borrowed" from a thread on the aforementioned website, interesting reading...; "Top 50 Reasons Why Futures Traders Lose Money A list of the fifty most common reasons why most futures traders lose money. We surveyed more than a thousand experienced futures brokers and asked what, in their experience, caused most futures traders to lose money. These account executives represent the trading experience of more than 20,000 futures traders. In addition, most of these Account Executives (AEs) have also traded or are currently trading for themselves. Their answers are not summarized because different traders make (and lose) money for different reasons. Perhaps you may recognize some of your strengths and weaknesses. Yet, many of the reasons given are very similar from broker to broker and client to client. The repetitions stand to demonstrate that, alas, many futures traders lose money for many of the same reasons. Perhaps these statements from experienced brokers can make a contribution to you, who make this sometimes fickle, often intricate, always interesting marketplace of futures trading possible. Here is what they said: Many futures traders trade without a plan. They do not define specific risk and profit objectives before trading. Even if they establish a plan, they "second guess" it and don't stick to it, particularly if the trade is a loss. Consequently, they overtrade and use their equity to the limit (are undercapitalized), which puts them in a squeeze and forces them to liquidate positions. Usually they liquidate the good trades and keep the bad ones. Many traders don't realize the news they hear and read has, in many cases, already been discounted by the market. After several profitable trades, many speculators become wild and unconservative. They base their trades on hunches and long shots, rather than sound fundamental and technical reasoning, or put their money into one deal that "can't fail." Traders often try to carry too big a position with too little capital, and trade too frequently for the size of the account. Some traders try to "beat the market" by day-trading, nervous scalping, and getting greedy. They fail to pre-define risk, add to a losing position, and fail to use stops. They frequently have a directional bias; for example, always wanting to be long. Lack of experience in the market causes many traders to become emotionally and/or financially committed to one trade, and unwilling or unable to take a loss. They may be unable to admit they have made a mistake, or they look at the market in too short a timeframe. They overtrade. Many traders can't (or don't) take the small losses. They often stick with a loser until it really hurts, then take the loss. This is an undisciplined approach...a trader needs to develop and stick with a system. Many traders get a fundamental case and hang onto it, even after the market technically turns. Only believe fundamentals as long as the technical signals follow. Both must agree. Many traders break a cardinal rule: "Cut losses short. Let profits run." Many people trade with their hearts instead of their heads. For some traders, adversity (or success) distorts judgment. That’s why they should have a plan first, and stick to it. Often traders have bad timing, and not enough capital to survive the shake out. Too many traders perceive futures markets as an intuitive arena. The inability to distinguish between price fluctuations which reflect a fundamental change and those which represent an interim change often causes losses. Not following a disciplined trading program leads to accepting large losses and small profits. Many traders do not define offensive and defensive plans when an initial position is taken. Emotion makes many traders hold a loser too long. Many traders don't discipline themselves to take small losses and big gains. Too many traders are underfinanced, and get washed out at the extremes. Greed causes some traders to allow profits to dwindle into losses while hoping for larger profits. This is really lack of discipline. Also, having too many trades on at one time and overtrading for the amount of capital involved can stem from greed. Trying to trade inactive markets is dangerous. Taking too big a risk with too little profit potential is a sure way to losses. Many traders lose by not taking losses in proportion to the size of their accounts. Often, traders do not recognize the difference between trading markets and trending markets. Lack of discipline is a major shortcoming. Lack of discipline includes several lesser items; i.e., impatience, need for action, etc. Also, many traders are unable to take a loss and do it quickly. Trading against the trend, especially without reasonable stops, and insufficient capital to trade with and/or improper money management are major causes of large losses in the futures markets; however, a large capital base alone does not guarantee success. Overtrading is dangerous, and often stems from lack of planning. Trading very speculative commodities is a frequent mistake. There is a striking inability to stay with winners. Most traders are too willing to take small profits and, therefore, miss out on big profits. Another problem is undercapitalization; small accounts can't diversify, and can't use valid stops. Some traders are on an ego trip and won't take advice from another person; any trade must be their idea. Many traders have the habit of not cutting losses fast, and getting out of winners too soon. It sounds simple, but it takes discipline to trade correctly. This is hard whether you're losing or winning. Many traders overtrade their accounts. Futures traders tend to have no discipline, no plan, and no patience. They overtrade and can't wait for the right opportunity. Instead, they seem compelled to trade every rumor. Staying with a losing position, because a trader's information (or worse yet, intuition) indicates the deteriorating market is only a temporary situation, can lead to large losses. Lack of risk capital in the market means inadequate capital for diversification and staying power in the market. Some speculators don't have the temperament to accept small losses in a trade, or the patience to let winners ride. Greed, as evidenced by trying to pick tops or bottoms, is a frequent error. Not having a trading plan results in a lack of money management. Then, when too much ego gets involved, the result is emotional trading. Frequently, traders judge markets on the local situation only, rather than taking the worldwide situation into account. Speculators allow emotions to overcome intelligence when markets are going for them or against them. They do not have a plan and follow it. A good plan must include defense points (stops). Some traders are not willing to believe price action, and thus trade contrary to the trend. Many speculators trade only one commodity. Getting out of a rallying commodity too quickly, or holding losers too long results in losses. Trading against the trend is a common mistake. This may result from overtrading, too many day-trades, and undercapitalization, accentuated by failure to use a money management approach to trading futures. Often, traders jump into a market based on a story in the morning paper; the market many times has already discounted the information. Lack of self-discipline on the part of the trader and/or broker creates losses. Futures traders tend to do inadequate research. Traders don't clearly identify and then adhere to risk parameters; i.e., stops. Most traders overtrade without doing enough research. They take too many positions with too little information. They do a lot of day-trading for which they are undermargined; thus, they are unable to accept small losses. Many speculators use "conventional wisdom" which is either "local," or "old news" to the market. They take small profits, not riding gains as they should, and tend to stay with losing positions. Most traders do not spend enough time and effort analyzing the market, and/or analyzing their own emotional make-up. Too many traders do not apply money management techniques. They have no discipline, no plan. Many also overstay when the market goes against them, and won't limit their losses. Many traders are undercapitalized. They trade positions too large, relative to their available capital. They are not flexible enough to change their minds or opinions when the trend is clearly against them. They don't have a good battle plan and the courage to stick to it. Don't make trading decisions based on inside information. It's illegal, and besides, it's usually wrong. There you have them, fifty rules from more than a thousand brokers who have handled more than 20,000 accounts. They’ve seen what worked, what didn’t, and why. Following these rules will not necessarily lead to success. Breaking them could increase your chances of failure. Futures trading is not for everyone. Futures trading involves the risk of loss." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 19, 2012 Report Share Posted March 19, 2012 Fantastic! Thanks for thehelp Pd! Regards Ml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2012 Short at 17:18, filled at 2722 following some divergence on my custom indicator, market sold off slightly, moved stop close to breakeven, market rallied up taking out my stop for a 1 point loss; Today's score Running 1 Trading Nil I wasn't able to trade last week, too busy, however there was a nice set-up last Wednesday; Clear upside fakeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manual labourer Posted March 22, 2012 Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 Short at 17:18, filled at 2722 following some divergence on my custom indicator, market sold off slightly, moved stop close to breakeven, market rallied up taking out my stop for a 1 point loss; Today's score Running 1 Trading Nil I wasn't able to trade last week, too busy, however there was a nice set-up last Wednesday; Clear upside fakeout. You can't win them all. Good trade management though by making sure your stop was in place ! Reading the rules above this seems to be a Key factor. Cheers for posting it PD. Do you post all your trades? Regards ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 I post all my futures trades, I don't post all of my stock trades, but then I dont trade them that often. Doing it this way makes me publically accountable, so I can reflect on what goes well and what doesn't, how I need to modify my behaviour etc. What I have nailed down is defence, I'm very good at protecting my capital. I need to work on new set-ups that allow me to take advantage of more opportunities in the direction of the trend, I have some decent tools, I need to create more. I heard a great quote the other day, in trading you want to poop like a bird and eat like an elephant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 22, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2012 Took a long at 18:05, filled at 2729. Stopped out almost immediately for a loss of 2 points. Had divergence on both my custom indicator and between E-Mini NASDAQ and various currencies, both suggesting some upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2012 From Philstockworld.com; "Fall-Back Thursday – Time To Get Real? By Phil Posted: March 22, 2012 - 8:34am Do you REALLY think this will go on forever? On the right is the AAPL quarterly chart but it could also be the quarterly chart of SHLD, NFLX, FOSL, STX or PCLN (Bespoke Chart), all of whom are up more than AAPL (which is up 50%) in 2012. We've discussed PCLN as one of my favorite shorts and we had a good discussion in Member chat last night comparing PCLN to EXPE, who drop the same amount of cash to the bottom line (before buybacks and dividends) but have just 1/8th of the market cap of PCLN. Sure you can say that PCLN is twice as good as EXPE (it isn't, but you can say it) but can you say it's 4 times as good? How about 8 times? EXPE nets $500M a year – 8 times that is $4Bn – more money than the entire travel sector makes! How, exactly, will PCLN grow into that valuation? Eliminate all competition and then grow the sector by 50%? Well, that's pretty much what AAPL did but how many AAPLs can you have in one market? THAT is the problem my friends. Aside from the macro concerns we discussed in yesterday's post, we have a sort of value mania that is driven by the very real success of one company, much the way we had a dot com boom in the late 90s driven by the very real success of just a few companies. Back then, everyone was the next QCOM, YHOO, MSFT, CSCO – whichever category you were supposed to be the best. Qualcomm, in fact, was the best performing tech stock of 1999, gaining 2,619% that year and finishing right about $100. By the end of July, 2002, they were trading at $10 but hey, what a ride! In fact, here's the CNet story from Dec 29th, 1999 titled "Qualcomm Jumps on $1,000 Price Target" and coming on the heels of "Qualcomm to offer Net2Phone services in Eudora" it's no wonder people were super-excited! AMZN was "only" up 25% that year to $100 but Jeff Bezos was Time's Man of the Year and yes, their business has been growing at an amazing rate for the past 12 years and they have crushed their competition and dominated the sector – and gained less than 6% a year for their troubles. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 26, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2012 Short at 15:33 based on custom indicator divergence, filled at 2751.25, stopped out a few minutes later for a 1.25 point loss; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 26, 2012 Report Share Posted March 26, 2012 A nice liftoff in GLD/Gold. I reckon we will see some retracement soon, and maybe an entry opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 26, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2012 A nice liftoff in GLD/Gold. I reckon we will see some retracement soon, and maybe an entry opportunity Looks like a good trade so far. The moon, venus and jupiter taken tonight with a Nikon D200 and Celestron; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 27, 2012 Report Share Posted March 27, 2012 The moon, venus and jupiter taken tonight with a Nikon D200 and Celestron; Very nice. Can you label them? (It is interesting to note that BF is talking about a huge number of arrests while that happens in the sky) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2012 Very nice. Can you label them? (It is interesting to note that BF is talking about a huge number of arrests while that happens in the sky) Venus is next to the moon, Jupiter below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 27, 2012 Report Share Posted March 27, 2012 Venus is next to the moon, Jupiter below. Far below, to the right? Venus is brighter since it is closer to the Earth, closer to the Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted March 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2012 Couple of trades today, both based on divergence and both stopped out, loss of 3.25 points; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 28, 2012 Report Share Posted March 28, 2012 How about the A$ - Do you think it looks like a good short against the USD ? Dollar Bull - the WSJ says: "Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management... is calling for a stronger dollar, particularly against the yen, after wagering against the greenback for much of his 30-year Wall Street career." Other Dollar Bulls include: + PIMCO, the biggest bond fund manager + Franklin Templeton Investments "They are expecting other Central banks to be more aggressive than the Fed in flooding economies with chgeap money to spur growth." PIMCO sees the USD strengthening against commodity currencies like the A$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.