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Perishabull

PositiveDev's trading journey

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Many brokers offer SIM / paper trade accounts so you can assess a strategy or practice execution and order entry types. I would avoid getting a Forex account since most are foxes offering absolutely ludicrous leverage (eg 400-1) to the many lambs out there.

 

I trade futures through Mirus Futures but they are a futures only broker, their data provider Zen-Fire provide the SIM account feature.

 

I wouldnt use a UK broker either, they are way overpriced compared to US brokers. I also have an old ThinkorSwim account but they no longer accept new UK customers, their platform is excellent and there is paper trade feature on that that I've used to test OCO brackets and trailing stop orders. I'm sure I posted something a while ago, something that allow access to their platform. I'll see if I can find it later.

 

 

CBOE offer a free papertrading platform called paperTRADE - http://www.cboe.com/...rtrademain.aspx - You'll need to register first.

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I've been on a bit of a mission lately upgrading my system to make it run at it's best. I started upgrading the 4GB memory to 8GB and that did speed things up a bit however the machine was running in 32 bit, rather than 64-bit and I only had Windows Home Premium 32-bit (however my processor is 64-bit). So I got Windows Ultimate 64-bit and a 160GB solid state drive, backed up all my important data, installed the Solid State Drive, set about re-installing Windows, then upgraded to the latest 64-bit version of Multicharts.

 

What a fantastic difference it made upgrading to 64-bit and getting the Solid State Drive. It now runs as a computer should, silently, no hard drive access sounds. It's very quick, you start an application it starts up very quickly. For example in iTunes if you double click a song it plays immediately. It's essentially like I have a completely new machine, and I only spent a few hundred pounds.

 

Multicharts, (trading system) starts up quicker and allows me to interrogate data/charts so much quicker.

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Yeah, it is well worthwhile to do the upgrade, if you use charts frequently.

 

I did it a year or so ago, and never looked back

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I finished an assessment of my futures pairs trading strategy, not only does it just show a minimal edge but there was also a flaw in the construction in the indicator, (this probably explains the minimal edge). When the indicator was reconfigured with the correct formula, the amount of trade signals given was very low, so I've put that strategy on the shelf for now, I may come back to it at some point.

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Yesterday I started looking at a different type of analysis work that gives structure and context to a market, its called median line and involves using Andrews pitchforks and looks very interesting indeed. Indeed I noted what looked like a good position to short, 6 am yesterday then had other plans for the day and later saw it was an excellent point to have shorted equity markets.

 

 

NASDAQ futures

MultiCharts1_zps93dc81e3.png

 

Interestingly it meshes well with another type of analysis I do that compares equity markets to currency markets.

 

Highly intriguing for the positively deviant.

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Sentiment has stalled on Platinum;

 

Platinum

Platsent_zpsd53fc030.png

 

 

Palladium COT

Large specs in Palladium look very over extended;

PallCOT_zps75f2e7e2.png

 

 

Ratio of Palladium to Platinum;

PallPlat_zps9cb1fcb8.png

 

The Palladium / Platinum ratio has continually stalled above 0.46 level

 

If the ratio switches lower at the same level then short Palladium / long Platinum looks like a good trade.

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I've just signed up for a introductory course on statistics offered by UC Berkeley via www.edx.org, from the website;

 

 

"ABOUT edX

 

EdX is a not-for-profit enterprise of its founding partners Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology that features learning designed specifically for interactive study via the web. Based on a long history of collaboration and their shared educational missions, the founders are creating a new online-learning experience with online courses that reflect their disciplinary breadth. Along with offering online courses, the institutions will use edX to research how students learn and how technology can transform learning–both on-campus and worldwide. Anant Agarwal, former Director of MIT's Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, serves as the first president of edX. EdX's goals combine the desire to reach out to students of all ages, means, and nations, and to deliver these teachings from a faculty who reflect the diversity of its audience. EdX is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts and is governed by MIT and Harvard."

 

It's the first part of a 3 part course that initially goes into regression, standard deviation, scatter diagrams, and my goal here is to be able to pick up some techniques to be able to assess data (ie trading signals) in a scientific way that will lead to meaningful conclusions (ie Is there an edge present?)

 

There are quite an eclectic mix of courses offered - you can check them out athttps://www.edx.org/courses.

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More on Median Line analysis;

 

Dow Jones futures big picture, large structure going back to July last year;

M1_zpsf1cd55da.png

 

And closer, showing recent bounce off median line;

M2_zps52df9b47.png

 

 

Meanwhile Peter Campbell of M3 financial sense thinks today's action has set a trap;

2013-02-27_1612_ES_300min-01.png

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Im sure you highlighted these PD...

 

Cotton and DBA looking interesting in GBP now. Sorry cant post graphs from work.

 

Both looking a touch overbought here so would like to see a pullback to purchase, however will step in if they breakout .

 

 

Anyone know of the 'best' cotton ETF?

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Thankfully I am blessed with a creative mind (and health)........

 

Thats gone over my head. :wacko:

 

Bought WEAT LN ETF y'day.

 

Cotton on a tear.

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Nice one chazza, I've edited my post and your quote. I hope you don't mind, I was tired yesterday and little bit stressed out...it was a long day yesterday.

 

Cheers

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Our perceptive friend, Peter Campbell over at M3 Financial Blog, posted this;

 

 

"Everything is MORE Wronger…here is another time this happened...

VIX UP

Bonds Up

Dollar Up

Market Flat or Up and near highs

2013-03-27_1647_VIXup_MarketUpOrFlat_BondsUp_DollarUp.png

 

 

 

Are we going way back to 2008?

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Very nice chart, PD !

 

I shall add some trendlines later

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Very nice chart, PD !

 

I shall add some trendlines later

 

Peter has now pulled that chart from his blog entry of 27th March and replaced it with this;

 

 

 

"Today we had a condition that has only occured three times since 2007…VIX Up, Dollar Up, Bonds Up with markets making recent new highs…see chart below for these occurences:

2013-03-27_1647_BlogVIXup_MarketUpOrFlat_BondsUp_DollarUp-01.png

 

 

VIX UP = Market Rally

Bonds Up = Market Rally

Dollar Up = Market Rally

Total European Banking System Failure = Market Up and near highs

Currency Controls = party time for Ben BURNanke

ECB Officials dazed and confused = Risk On

Margin Debt increases for Feb = Margin Debt increase in March

Central Bank = Over leveraged hedge fund"

 

 

AFAIK he makes big money for his clients.

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45994038.png

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Very many longs;

 

COmmtraders_zps93041ac1.png

 

www.sentimentrader.com

 

 

 

 

Dr Copper does not correlate too well with equity markets right now, looks very weak;

 

Copper-2_zps3a333b66.png

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This is from Albertarocks TA discussion blog;

 

SPX / VIX - an interesting way of looking at things

SPX-VIX+Wide+Angle.png

 

So he points out that SPX / VIX is at an all time high but also compared to the previous peak this is really an outlier;

 

SPX-VIX+Monthly+Closer-up.png

 

The current level is way above the bollinger bands right now, compared to the previous peak.

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