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Perishabull

PositiveDev's trading journey

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S&P 500

1096CF80-4D94-41B8-98B0-283AA044DC1C-325-0000002A357EC4DA_zpsb607a7ee.jpg

 

This just looks wrong , it's just going higher at too steep an angle. Nothing that a vicious correction won't sort out though.

 

And the 1 year chart;

3947B7B5-81CE-4A3E-ABC5-F9121D54DAD2-341-0000002C5277CB63_zps16f2701a.jpg

 

Big drop from high to low today. Is that the top?

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I look foward to seeing it - but The Top in what ? Stocks?

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Mrs Positive Deviant and I are away for a driving holiday around the highlands of Scotland, we hired one these babies;

 

Mini_zpsa8b180b5.png

 

Great fun to drive!

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MW-BD551_hinden_MG_20130603131233.jpg

Marketwatch.com

 

Hindenburg Omen: Explosive market indicator or just hot air?

June 3, 2013, 1:52 PM

 

 

 

Oh the humanity, Damien! No, the “Hindenburg Omen” isn’t a mid-1970s movie mashup where a pint-sized Antichrist causes a Zeppelin to explode, rather it’s a mashup of technical indicators that’s meant to signal a high probability that the stock market will crash and burn.

 

And the reason it’s been getting so much chatter lately is that the stars have already aligned just as they did in October 2007.

 

But exactly what are the signs of the Hindenburg Omen? Well, a series of market breadth indicators need to occur twice within 36 trading days of each other to portend a serious market decline within the next 40 days.

Both the daily number of 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange are equal or greater than 2.2% of NYSE stocks that day.

The 10-week (or 50-day) moving average is rising.

The McClellan Oscillator, a measure of market breadth based on exponential moving averages of advancing and declining stocks, must be negative, or bearish.

New 52-week highs are not more than twice the number of 52-week lows.

 

All four of those conditions were met on April 15 and May 29, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak & Co. On April 15, there were 70 new 52-week highs and 77 new 52-week lows, exceeding 2.2% of issues, while on May 29th there were 58 new 52-week highs and 104 new 52-week lows.

 

“According to Bloomberg, the last ‘confirmed’ omen was in October 2007,” Krinsky wrote in a recent note. “It makes some sense given the dispersion between new 52 week highs and lows. Therefore, it is always good to be aware of it, even if it proves to be nothing more than a silly topic to bring up at your next cocktail party.”

 

The Hindenburg Omen (HO), however, has garnered a fair amount of savage criticism. While the HO preceded market downturns in 2008 and 1987, critics point out that stock market declines occurred only 25% of the time after conditions of the HO were met.

 

Chief Investment Officer Adam Grimes at Waverly Advisors called the HO “an example of the worst kind of ‘technical analysis’—a market signal essentially designed for media soundbites,” in emailed comment Monday.

 

“This signal was created in a different market environment, and we might reasonably ask if the NYSE, which represents roughly 10% of the total U.S. market, is actually the best representation today,” Grimes said.

 

Still, the creator of the HO, Jim Miekka, told WSJ’s MoneyBeat blog he’s preparing to bail out of the market. Then again, Miekka also said much the same thing in mid-August 2010, when the S&P 500 Index SPX

+0.29% was around 1,079. By the end of

the month, the S&P 500 had slipped nearly 4% to 1,040. Then again, it followed that up by rising 30% to 1,347 over the next 11 months.

 

Either way, the HO this past week showed how much attention you can garner with an ominous sounding name in times of market skittishness, and generated its share of Tweets."

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All four of those conditions were met on April 15 and May 29, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak & Co. On April 15, there were 70 new 52-week highs and 77 new 52-week lows, exceeding 2.2% of issues, while on May 29th there were 58 new 52-week highs and 104 new 52-week lows.

. . .

...stock market declines occurred only 25% of the time after conditions of the HO were met.

... the creator of the HO, Jim Miekka, told WSJ’s MoneyBeat blog he’s preparing to bail out of the market.

Then again, Miekka also said much the same thing in mid-August 2010, when the S&P 500 Index SPX

+0.29% was around 1,079. By the end of

the month, the S&P 500 had slipped nearly 4% to 1,040. Then again, it followed that up by rising 30% to 1,347 over the next 11 months.

 

Either way, the HO this past week showed how much attention you can garner with an ominous sounding name in times of market skittishness, and generated its share of Tweets."

 

Sounds like a brief but sharp drop may occur

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Apologies I haven't been posting frequently lately, it's unfortunate as it really does help the creative process and I really value the interactions and members here. I have a lot on at the moment that means some of the hours I previously spent here need to be diverted elsewhere.

 

I reckon yesterday might have been the top, based on some unusual data, will post more later.

 

Markets_zpseffc4e87.png

 

Whether you class the last three weeks as short or intermediate term, this is an accurate analysis insofar as it is a top not yet exceeded. I'm particularly pleased about that since I'm going through a process of assessing a new approach and based on what I was seeing at the time I was pretty certain I was looking at fingerprints (in the data) of a turning point in US equity markets. I prefer not to post the details since;

 

a ) The approach I refer to could be flat out wrong

 

b ) The approach could be valid making it unwise to simply give away

 

I would think that it is highly improbable that the work I'm doing is original, it's perhaps unlikely that I am the first person to be looking at data a certain way and analysing it in the way that I'm doing. Whilst it is certainly unorthodox it does mesh very well with some long term beliefs I have about futures markets and that's quite interesting for me so things are traveling in the right direction.

 

A lot of the work I'm doing is quite tedious but necessary in order to carry out the right checks and assessments so I can get a better handle on whether this approach I'm working on is valid.

 

I'm being sustained by Winston Churchill at the moment;

 

 

 

"Continuous effort - not strength or intelligence - is the key to unlocking our potential"

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So far, so good. Are you using cycles, sentiment, or something else?

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Momentum and Volume?

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Nice chart - Shows the Leaders and Laggards - I wonder if it can be used to spot the Turn quickly ? ... ... k9p.png

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Looks like an interesting juncture in the markets;

 

NASDAQ 100 futures

91EF8862-73BC-48E3-B319-952D8956BFB0-950-000000E442CFE11C_zpsae34caf8.jpg

 

S&P 500 futures;

798BEDD5-B040-4A9D-AE39-7AA7BE21C1C5-950-000000E43E403590_zps83334ace.jpg

 

Dow 30 futures;

7FC4406D-FC36-4E60-858C-A692521C099A-950-000000E4393DA969_zpse1fc4c3a.jpg

 

 

These markets looked to be about to form a lower high right at the start of July and it looks huge numbers went short only for an a short squeeze to create a very sharp uptrend from that point. Has the gas run out now though? If so can we invoke Wile e coyote style cliff imagery at this point?

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Is that a Running Target?

 

First: Congratulations!

 

... and

 

If so, what do you listen yo (if anything) while you are running.

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Is that a Running Target?

 

First: Congratulations!

 

... and

 

If so, what do you listen yo (if anything) while you are running.

 

Yes, I just hit the 5000k mark today thanks.

 

I usually listen to dance music, something with a fast beat. Ritchie Hawtin's a favourite at the moment.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sui24hHDZDI

 

 

How's the trading been going? I've only been popping my head into GEI on the odd occasion lately, mainly due to travel and work commitments.

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How's the trading been going? I've only been popping my head into GEI on the odd occasion lately, mainly due to travel and work commitments.

That's fine. I hope you will find more time when ready for your trading.

 

We seem to have caught a Low in Gold.

Which triggered some buying near those lows.

(The drop was painful, but I am still in the game, expecting some upside from here.)

 

But I still think there's a 30-40% chance of a retest - and I put those odds over 50% when Gold was below $1300.

 

Awaiting a shorting opportunity (this week?) for stocks

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