Jump to content
Perishabull

PositiveDev's trading journey

Recommended Posts

It's been some time since I've worked on my trading but I had the opportunity over the last few days. I've been travelling a lot with work but that's finished until early September. I've become interested in order flow, specifically looking for signatures in the order flow that enhance understanding about what the 95% are doing. 95% of futures traders lose money but clearly they don't all at the same time, there is some form of distribution of losses involved. I would intuitively expect an apex of losses at specific points for those 95% at significant turns relative to the timescale examined.

Using a similar methodology I thought the markets had topped on 22nd May;

 


I reckon yesterday might have been the top, based on some unusual data, will post more later.

And in fact they had topped, although it's clear this was only an intermediate top;

DJIA futures (1 year);

9B9B2E93-17FD-495C-B787-3200279DC023-312

DJIA (same chart in closeup showing 22nd May)
3904070C-20BB-436B-ACB6-E3844D750A5D-312



So at the weekend I finished an analysis of trading signals over a 3 month period, using data from two different providers. The technique shows a positive expectancy that looks worth pursuing. What I intend to do is test it using a SIM account in order to check if the results from the backtest are replicated in live testing.

Interestingly the best results come by having a profit target that is only 67% greater than the amount risked per trade.

The ideal scenario is that this is done over a clean consistent period of months however we are off on holiday to the Côte d'Azur for 18 days in August so it may well be that I need to extend the testing period to be sure to arrive at a statistically valid result.

So I started with the live testing yesterday;

I will be trading the strategy using DJIA futures.

I will be annotating 1 chart per day traded, with all trades.

Trade 29th July

3 trades yesterday, 2 wins and one loss for a gain of 140 per contract.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mrs Positive Deviant and I are away for a driving holiday around the highlands of Scotland, we hired one these babies;

 

Mini_zpsa8b180b5.png

 

Great fun to drive!

 

 

Talking of babies, Mrs PositiveDeviant is pregnant so when it comes to the trading I better step on the accelerator pedal now in terms of developing something that works, since time will be at even more of a premium in the future!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Congrats, PD !

 

Btw, I am getting some good reports on the Weinstein system

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks nice - another Hong Kong, it seems, but with more casinos

 

Very high property prices too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can you explain the last chart ?

 

Will EUR lead stocks maybe?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can you explain the last chart ?

 

Will EUR lead stocks maybe?

 

 

You read my mind.

 

Just briefly - my take is that if the markets are approaching a top then I would be looking for the EUR to continue lower then a break lower in equity markets to follow that would confirm the recent equity market highs as unvalidated divergence and therefore some form of short term or intermediate top having been formed.

 

 

 

I'd also be keen to see divergence between the equity markets, eg for the Russell to be lower than the recent high in mid to late July with the others still above, and I don't see any divergence at this point;

Divergence_zpsff5b7ca0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trade 2nd August

 

3 trades today, one loser and two winners for a gain of 140 per contract.


Weekly totals

15 trades
8 wins
7 losses

Gain of 380 per contract for the week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have you studied Tony Caldaro's charts and comments?

 

LINK: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

 

SPX comment:

"Short term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1717 and 1734. Short term momentum dipped to neutral during the pullback then ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1694. Best to your weekend!"

 

I have been impressed by his track record over time

 

This SPX chart and the weak volume does look toppy to me:

 

8gf.png

 

If I was paying no notice to his remarks, I probably would have stuck with my TZA Calls, rather than turning them into a more neutral spread position.

 

Yet, his E-Wave count suggests the upside move is not yet done:

 

bg0z.png

 

/source: http://stockcharts.c...c/1269446/tenpp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have you studied Tony Caldaro's charts and comments?

 

 

bg0z.png

 

/source: http://stockcharts.c...c/1269446/tenpp

 

 

 

From his comments under LONG TERM;

 

spxweekly.png

 

"When Int. v concludes, probably this month, this will end Major wave 3. A Major wave 4 correction of about 10% should follow. Then an uptrending Major wave 5 will end Primary wave III. A Primary wave IV correction should follow that. Finally, an uptrending Primary wave V should end the bull market in late-winter to early-spring of 2014. Until then the market continues to move higher."

 

So thinks a 10% correction may be starting this month, that's a big call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm.

That moves very fast - how much did you speed it up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not sped up, it's me drawing trendlines outside market hours then scrolling along, rinse and repeat, it's just to check the quality of the recording, how it works etc

 

It's actually pretty straightforward.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trade 6th August

There was one final trade today, a long, I closed it just before the close at breakeven.

5 trades today, 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 breakeven. A gain of 240 per contract.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The CME group has a trade similation game on their website;

 

Speculator_zpse81bd45e.png

 

It's quite disingenuous since it implies trading is all about reacting to news reports - it's also easy to make money so it's a bit upside down all in!

 

Here's the link if you have 2 minutes to kill - http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/trading_simulation_game/start.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On tarmac at Heathrow just waiting for flight to Nice to take off, just had a successful short complete that I placed remotely using my mobile. Isn't technology wonderful!


6044A44E-4605-4933-BC1F-40A5FA29F0ED-166

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×