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Perishabull

PositiveDev's trading journey

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This is working very well today with the Dow selling off. The Austalian $ has also rallied. The two appear to be beginning to converge and this trade is very nicely in profit so far.

 

The vertical line on the right is where I went short Dow futures and long Australian $ futures (on Friday at 6pm);

GF_zpsa5135208.png[/url]

 

This particular trade was closed at breakeven. After identifying the opportunity and getting a great entry the position went my way in a big way, but I held too long and an economic report caused a sharp rally in the Dow alongside a sharp fall in the Australian $ - I got out with no profit. The lower part of the chart below shows the gains in the position got up to $1350 at one point before reversing;

 

Trade_zpsf96665ba.png

 

If you see a decent gain quickly - it's best to take it, but that's what this is about, seeing what is and isn't realistic from these types of trades.

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The position after this week's trade

Position_zps09a8d341.png

 

Nice work

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I've been researching trading other futures markets using the same strategy I use on the Dow, since if the underlying theory behind my trading strategy is correct it follows that it ought to work on some other markets.

 

I looked at the Australian dollar over a reasonable series of trades - so looking at points where my strategy would result in a buy or sell and how trades and profits (or losses) would result;

 

6AZ3_zpsf3ebf86f.png

 

The results show Australian dollar futures are not a market to trade.

 

 

I also looked at Euro futures and was surprised with the results;

 

6EZ3test_zpse48fbb2f.png

 

These are backtesting results, not actual trades taken. Since the results are impressive I'm going to trade Euro futures on a SIM account for perhaps 2 or 3 months to see if I can replicate these results in real-time trading. I can do this alongside the Dow trades that I make on my live account.

 

I started yesterday;

 

3 SIM trades yesterday

EUroyest_zps811e345a.png

 

2 wins and 1 loss

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1 Dow futures trade today

16thYM_zps9a88ceea.png

 

 

1 winner


5 SIM trades on Euro futures
16th6E_zps6c747373.png

 

 

 

3 wins, 1 loss and 1 break even

Some nice Euro trades today

Charts to follow when I'm back home at the end of the week (I'm trading remotely using Teamviewer and an IPad)

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Dow futures

18thYM_zpseeb21386.png

 

 

2 wins and 2 losses (1 of the losses was an error entry made whilst trading on a train - far from ideal)

 

There ought to have been a further winning trade but my Internet connection went off-line for a period. There was also a further signal that would have led to a winning trade but that came after my trading cut off time rule by 37 seconds, and I need to be disciplined with plan rules.

 

Euro futures

18th6E_zps0d7f2b9d.png

 

 

2 SIM trades, 1 win and 1 loss

 

 

The big news today was the Fed is due to taper QE3 and my goodness the market loved it. A very interesting day as the news brought a massive influx of volume and liquidity into Dow futures that enabled my strategy to work very well indeed and this appears to have given me new insight into why the strategy appears to work so well on Euro futures. The volume and liquidity on Euro futures seems a lot more stable and constant and this I think is key when using order flow to trade. Although it does move in waves it is smoother and less prone to erratic behaviour often seen on stock index futures.

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I'm in a drawdown phase right now, the trading has been going really well, and at the point that I thought a drawdown would likely be due, it starts to happen. People who have followed me over the years have probably seen that sometimes I get calls on the tops and bottoms of markets right.

 

It is therefore somewhat ironic that I also that a top in my equity curve occurred at the time that I felt that a drawdown would be due at some point.

 

Let's see what today brings.

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From Marketwatch;

 

"Apple strikes deal with China Mobile: WSJ

(This story was published by The Wall Street Journal Digital Network's AllThingsD site at http://allthingsd.com/)

After years of talks, Apple confirmed on Sunday that it has at long last reached a deal with China Mobile to officially carry the iPhone.

China Mobile will start selling the iPhone 5s and 5c starting on Jan. 17, with pre-orders starting this Wednesday.

"Apple's iPhone is very much loved by millions of customers around the world," China Mobile Chairman Xi Guohua said in a statement. "We know there are many China Mobile customers and potential new customers who are anxiously awaiting the incredible combination of iPhone on China Mobile's leading network. We are delighted that iPhone on China Mobile will support our 4G/TD-LTE and 3G/TD-SCDMA networks, providing customers with high-speed mobile service."

Apple Tim Cook said he is excited to begin working with China Mobile.

"China is an extremely important market for Apple and our partnership with China Mobile presents us the opportunity to bring iPhone to the customers of the world's largest network," Cook said. "iPhone customers in China are an enthusiastic and rapidly growing group, and we can't think of a better way to welcome in the Chinese New Year than getting an iPhone into the hands of every China Mobile customer who wants one."

Even before the China Mobile deal, Apple has been making some inroads in the giant market. According to Counterpoint Research, the iPhone 5s, 5 and 5c were October's number 1, 2 and 4 top-selling smartphones, with Apple grabbing 12 percent of that month's market share."

Seems this is a very big deal for Apple.

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Hi, PD

 

I don't know if you will find the same thing - perhaps not (?)

 

I did find to my amusement, that I could "chart" my trading results.

If it happens with you, then you may find a retracement like THIS is about to happen:

 

3jcu.png

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I just found this proverb which I adore;

Tension is who you think you should be. Relaxation is who you are.
Chinese Proverb

There is some form of bizarre contractual dispute broken out between my data provider and their trade execution software provider that means my platform provider has to develop a new API in order to enable me to trade. The platform guys have told me this should take days rather than weeks. A bit on the vague indefinite side for my liking but there's nothing I can realistically do, I could try and take my business to another broker but that would inevitably involve weeks rather than days with all the paperwork involved.

So it seems I will be taking an enforced short break from trading. I was expecting to start again on Monday, that seems unlikely now.

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Due to an issue with the Zen-Fire data provider I formerly used I am unable to trade and my broker has no ETA for when the issues will be resolved therefore I'm considering changing broker.

 

I'm looking at different factors, I found that the CFTC publish financial data on FCMs, so you can consider factors such as adjusted net capital, customer segregated funds etc for each FCM relative to each other.

See link below to PDF from the CFTC website with the latest data published;

http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@financialdataforfcms/documents/file/fcmdata1013.pdf


Another worthwhile link is the NFA where you can search for regulatory actions taken against any futures broker https://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/

 

 

There's an article on Bloomberg from January last year looking at the ratio of excess capital relative to net adjusted capital for FCMs. May also be of interest.

"Adjusted net capital is the amount of regulatory capital available to meet the minimum net capital requirement as set by the CFTC. Excess net capital is the amount by which adjusted net capital exceeds the net capital requirement. The higher the ratio, the more capital the firm has available beyond what is required."



CFTC-Registered Firms? Excess to Net Capital Ratios - Bloomberg

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Excess Capital?

 

In "excess" of requirements.

But are those set sensibly?

 

They must assume some level of volatility. If actual volatility exceeds that (on core markets), there may be a problem

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I'm looking into getting set up with either Dorman Trading or Advantage Futures at the moment, both appear to be reputable firms, I'm waiting on details of platforms, data feeds offered, costs involved etc.

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