PositiveDev's trading journey

[drbubb]

Hi Positive Dev,

 

I don't know whether you are interested, but in case you are...

 

I have started a new thread where I will be taking a look at some small cap stocks traded in the UK.

 

Initially, I will be looking at some charts and capsule financial info, but once I home in on some high potential stocks, I plan to monitor them as part of a small Special Situations Portfolio.

 

Please have a look: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=14693

 

Perhaps you can offer some comments or suggestions.

[Perishabull]

Hi Positive Dev,

 

I don't know whether you are interested, but in case you are...

 

I have started a new thread where I will be taking a look at some small cap stocks traded in the UK.

 

Initially, I will be looking at some charts and capsule financial info, but once I home in on some high potential stocks, I plan to monitor them as part of a small Special Situations Portfolio.

 

Please have a look: http://www.greenener...showtopic=14693

 

Perhaps you can offer some comments or suggestions.

 

Thanks, however my main focus is on the US markets. I closed my UK broker account a while ago. If I can think of anything relevant to add, I will do.

[Perishabull]

I will now go back and check what results I would have gotten on all of my trades had I waited until the previous bar was in the same direction as the trade, before I entered the trade, to see if I should include this as a final check before I enter a trade...

 

 

Checking back over the charts of my trades I see I could have saved a few points here and there by being a little more patient on some of the entries eg by waiting for a small rally to play out before entering short, or a sell off to play out before entering long. I will properly consider the Heikin Ashi aspect of the chart (whether the market is rallying or selling off), before acting on the signals I get on my indicator.

 

I checked on my ThinkorSwim platform to see how many trades I've made since I started with them in February 2009, it comes out at 223. I didn't think I'd been that busy! About 25% of them have been futures trades, the rest mainly options with some stocks/ETFs.

[Perishabull]

I got intraday sell signals on SPY, DIA and QQQ all just before the close.

 

SPY sell signal 20:55

 

 

Also a classic sell signal given on the hourly time frame signal chart right on the close for QQQ;

 

I've only just found this, after the market close. If the markets sell off from here I'm already short via SLV and SLW anyway.

[Perishabull]

Not such a good day today, a couple of stopped out trades;

 

 

Sell signal on SPY at 16:50

 

Filled at 2392.75, stopped out at 2396.50 for a loss of 3.75 points.

 

Sell signal on SPY at 19:00

 

Filled at 2399.75, stopped out at 2403.50 for a loss of 3.75 points.

 

Trade entry and exit points;

 

 

Perhaps these FED rate decision days should be avoided in future...although I did think there was a chance of a sell off from around the 2400 level. Nevermind.

[Perishabull]

No signals today.

 

My girlfriend was telling me about how she had been to see a medium. In the past I have been ultra-sceptical about these sorts of things. But the first time my girlfriend saw this medium lady my girlfriend told me about so many things she said that actually had happened or did happen, I wasn't quite sure what to make of it at the time. So anyway my girlfriend was telling me about her latest visit to "Margaret", Margaret picked up on issues my girlfriend had at work and also said that her partner (ie me) was "very clever financially and very creative" and that "whatever he was doing would work out within 6 months".

 

Just thought I'd put this down, not really sure what to make of it...

 

It reminds me of that time I had a dream I was talking to George Soros, I'll never for forget that.

[Perishabull]

An update to trading on Friday 29th April;

 

 

Buy signal on SPY at 1435;

 

Filled at 2402.50, market rallied to 2409.25 before selling off to hit my stop, filled at 2401.00 for a 1.5 point loss.

 

I also had a sell signal on Friday at 15:20 although I'm not sure what happened to the signal chart, I can't find it.

 

Anyway, I was filled at 2403.75, the market rallied up to my stop at 2407.5, leaving me with a 3.5 point loss.

 

Entry and exit points;

[Perishabull]

A fantastic day today...

 

Sell signal on SPY at 15:40;

 

Filled at 2413.50, in hindsight I see I managed to catch very close to the high of the day, the market sold off down to 2393.50, the very last part of the sell off was a very sharp spike down then up, I've see that a number of times before at lows of the day so I closed the position based on that, filled at 2396.25 for a 17.25 point gain.

 

I switched to my indicator charts and saw a buy signal shaping up on DIA, it was confirmed at 17:35;

 

Went long, filled at 2397.25, market rallied up to 2403.75 and I opted to close the trade early, for a 6.5 point gain. I don't have a clear reason for closing it early, and the market is now at 2409, but that's what you get for not following the rules and closing early.

 

Fills;

 

Still a great gain today of 23.75 points.

 

Entry and exit points;

 

I want to see more beautiful charts like the one above.

 

I am working for the rest of the week, and will be home late so unlikely to be doing much trading, I will be trading all next week however.

[Perishabull]

Many years ago I was interested in trading, I started spread betting during the NASDAQ bubble. I was too immature to trade at that time and didn't do very well, I got bored after a few weeks. Not long after that I found an interest in writing music, mainly dance music. I think I wrote the following track about 12 years ago, but I have recently remixed it to include samples from "Trader: The documentary" to give it a trading theme...

 

 

In the future, when I have more time, I will make a proper video out of it with some more stills, maybe some video clips etc...

[Perishabull]

This is my 9-5 week (apart from yesterday which was a holiday), a real shame...

 

Sell signal on DIA at 16:50 [standard sell signal];

 

 

The sell signal was generated when the price was at 2395, the market then sold off down to 2378 at which point there was a buy signal at 19:10 on QQQ;

 

 

 

The market then rallied up to 2390 by the close. An opportunity loss of 17 points on the first signal. It questionable when I would have closed the second one however, but it would have been before the market close, probably an opportunity loss of 10 points on that one.....

 

The potential entry points - had I been at home to trade;

 

 

Great to see the indicator back firing on all cylinders again.

 

Still, my SLV puts are exploding in value - I sincerely hope this silver sell off continues.

[Perishabull]

Sell signal on DIA at 19:05

 

Filled at 2380, market rallied up to 2383.75 taking out my stop for a 3.75 point loss.

 

Entry and exit points;

[Perishabull]

That's it, I've exited all my SLV puts now. My secondary target was $33.60 in SLV and it has been as low as $33.75 on an intraday basis today.

 

Whew, what a ride! I was fortunate enough to get the puts right at the top, the chances of selling them at a low are, I would have thought, rather small. However the volume in SLV today is 292 million and counting, approximately 74 million higher than the highest day ever. Capitulation volume? Who knows.

 

My impression is that due to the recent CME hike announcements and the fact that stories abound of serious players like Soros are exiting, today is the day when most of the selling is going to take place. I was originally going to close tomorrow but actually I've been having trouble sleeping the last couple of days over this position. In fact, a slight irritation is that I had a sell signal for Crude oil on 2nd May using my proprietary indicator, however I didn't see it at the time as I was too busy looking at the silver situation.

 

Net result is a 1453% return.

 

I'm looking forward to a can of beer (or two) to relax and celebrate!

[Perishabull]

[Perishabull]

Classic double bottom buy signal on QQQ at 14:35 today;

 

Filled at 2400.75, market then sold off sharply, stopped out at 2397.25 for a 3.5 point loss.

 

 

Up to this point in time all of the Classic type signals on my indicator were all winners, it couldn't last forever of course and that amazing run came to an end today.

[Perishabull]

I posted a couple of charts on Bubb's diary suggesting a potential low for the dollar;

 

Dollar index futures

 

UUP

 

 

Here we are now;

 

Dollar Index futures;

 

The high volume (profile and standard) add further weight to the case for a dollar low, too early to say at this stage though.

 

 

 

 

From the "$50-ish Peak In silver Coming? thread";

 

PositiveDeviant, on 12 November 2009

 

If the CFTC CME increase margin requirements by a lot it could engineer a sudden and significant dollar rally and therefore a sharp correction in gold, silver, oil etc

PositiveDeviant, on 04 May 2011 - 11:15 PM

Looking back at what I wrote I think we would need large margin hikes in gold, oil and other commodities for this to be possible. Given what's happening to silver, I certainly wouldn't rule it out. It could be spun as a short term "solution" to commodity inflation/speculation. And we know Obama has his sights on oil...

 

 

and now from ZeroHedge we have this;

 

 

Crude Dropping On CL Margin Hike Rumor

"And so the margin hike rumor mill shifts from silver to crude. Pretty soon nobody will dare to invest any capital in commodities (or FX) for fear of an imminent 100% margin spike by the exchanges, causing the S&P to trade at 100x P/E, and letting China buy up every commodity at a 50% off. Another brilliant ploy to preserve the wealth effect while not accounting for any possible side effects of Printocchio's actions."

 

 

Just connecting the dots here, what is going to happen to the dollar, gold and oil if gold and oil are subjected to repeated margin hikes by the CME...???

 

I think it would create a dollar rally, dampen inflationary expectations at least temporarily, and cause a capital flight into bonds. A sell-off in commodities has a series of outcomes positively aligned with the FED/US Government.

[Perishabull]

I thought I'd better put this down here else I'll probably forget but last night (or I suppose it would be very early morning) I was dreaming I was in one of the pits at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading, I don't have a great recollection of it, just being in the pit with the other traders.

 

[Perishabull]

The real reason for Silver's decline;

 

[drbubb]

No signals today.

 

My girlfriend was telling me about how she had been to see a medium. In the past I have been ultra-sceptical about these sorts of things. But the first time my girlfriend saw this medium lady my girlfriend told me about so many things she said that actually had happened or did happen, I wasn't quite sure what to make of it at the time. So anyway my girlfriend was telling me about her latest visit to "Margaret", Margaret picked up on issues my girlfriend had at work and also said that her partner (ie me) was "very clever financially and very creative" and that "whatever he was doing would work out within 6 months".

 

Just thought I'd put this down, not really sure what to make of it...

 

It reminds me of that time I had a dream I was talking to George Soros, I'll never for forget that.

Be careful.

 

Soros likes to give misleading tips

[Perishabull]

A couple of stopped out trades today;

 

Sell signal on DIA at 18:10;

 

Filled at 2392.25, after going up 2 points, market sold off slightly, but was really going sideways so I lowered my stop to 2395, then it got taken out for a 2.75 point loss.

 

Sell signal on QQQ at 19:25;

 

Similar to previous trade, filled at 2392.75, market rallied thereafter hitting my stop at 2396.50 for a 3.75 point loss.

 

Entry and exit points;

 

 

The market was initially very quiet today but then rallied up 20 points, no interest in lower prices from there though. Commodities today have come back quite a bit today, the talking heads on CNBC are talking about them now being in a bubble (after last weeks sharp sell-offs in Crude and Silver). They also had a piece today discussing whether further margin hikes will be seen in other commodities. I've been thinking that may happen for some time. We will see, that could lead to some nice moves in index futures.

[Perishabull]

Buy signal on XAU today (hourly time-frame chart);

[Perishabull]

No signals or trades on the indices yesterday or today. Disappointing not to get a sell signal before the large drop in the NASDAQ today but I can't expect them every time. I went back in and bought some puts again on SLW, the dollar looks as though it may pop and rally from here. We'll see.

[Perishabull]

Sell signal at 1610 today;

 

Filled at 2382.50, stopped out 3 minutes later for a 3.75 point loss. Apparently the correct direction was up and not down.

 

[cranberryDog46]

No signals today.

 

My girlfriend was telling me about how she had been to see a medium. In the past I have been ultra-sceptical about these sorts of things. But the first time my girlfriend saw this medium lady my girlfriend told me about so many things she said that actually had happened or did happen, I wasn't quite sure what to make of it at the time. So anyway my girlfriend was telling me about her latest visit to "Margaret", Margaret picked up on issues my girlfriend had at work and also said that her partner (ie me) was "very clever financially and very creative" and that "whatever he was doing would work out within 6 months".

 

Just thought I'd put this down, not really sure what to make of it...

 

It reminds me of that time I had a dream I was talking to George Soros, I'll never for forget that.

 

What did Soros say PD?

[Perishabull]

It's posted earlier on in this journal, I don't recall what page. You could search under "Soros" or just skim back through it.

[Perishabull]

Sell signal today at 15:40 on SPY;

 

 

Filled at 2402, a great spot to get short, market sold off down to 2381.75, and rallied back up to 2386.25, at this point I had a buy signal on my indicator at 1635, I used that to get out of the trade, and was filled at 2386.25 for a 15.75 point gain.

 

Buy signal on SPY at 1635;

 

 

 

I then had a buy signal on DIA at 16:40;

 

I got long, filled at 2288 with a 2.75 point stop, market sold off and took out my stop for a 2.75 point loss.

 

Overall a gain of 13 points today but really it was a poor piece of trading.

 

Dollar index futures intraday;

 

I wasn't paying enough attention to the above, today was not a day to be exiting shorts on buy signals or worse, getting long. It's all the more galling since I believe the dollar is rallying and that downside is more likely than upside on the NASDAQ. I'm not going to kick myself too much though. It's just highlighted another area than I need to focus on and that is when my indicator signals and my opinions on the market diverge - what takes precedence? A difficult problem with the answer more blindingly obvious following 2020 vision of the above. There needs to be an element of following the rules but also knowing when to break them.

Overall this week I am down 3 NASDAQ points. My goal is to gain 25 points per week on average - I know it's achievable. This system I developed; in the first two months scored around 100 each month.

 

The key factor of course is: - Can I achieve this consistently?

 

NASDAQ entry and exit points;

 

I'm going to go back to Niederhoffer's book and take another look at where I'm at, what I'm doing and whether I need to adjust my approach. I do need to get a better handle on identifying trend days and consolidation days, that is a clear weakness at the moment. What are the key factors in terms of volume, range, breadth etc that are common to trend days?

 

I'm also reading the brilliant James Dines;

 

Very interesting so far...