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PositiveDev's trading journey


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Without going into details did Soros dream guidance lead you to anything useful?

 

Well yes in the sense that it was meaningful to have a dream of that sort when all the other dreams I ever have had tended to be meaningless (I don't often recall them, at least not having conversations ever). That appeared to be a message of some sort in itself (Perhaps from my subconscious to myself?). It hasn't led me to anything specific but it has encouraged me in my journey towards seeking a career as a trader, and I suppose led me to think that I am on the correct path but I need to work more on other aspects.

 

And how about you zoomraker? Clearly you have an interest in the financial markets and I suspect it is not as a voyeur?

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Well yes in the sense that it was meaningful to have a dream of that sort when all the other dreams I ever have had tended to be meaningless (I don't often recall them, at least not having conversations ever). That appeared to be a message of some sort in itself (Perhaps from my subconscious to myself?). It hasn't led me to anything specific but it has encouraged me in my journey towards seeking a career as a trader, and I suppose led me to think that I am on the correct path but I need to work more on other aspects.

 

And how about you zoomraker? Clearly you have an interest in the financial markets and I suspect it is not as a voyeur?

 

Lots of great scientists and inventors had some of their most important inspiration in dreams, think one of the DNA guys dreamed the shape of the double helix so good thing to pay attention to, you will be able to remember more dreams if you try and think about doing so as you fall asleep. Lucid dreaming could also be a good skill to learn as you could go off and consult with Mr Soros whenever you wanted!

 

 

Haven't really touched financials since I got burned shorting into QE last summer and I question the value of much analysis now we seem to have a centrally planned financial sector.

 

Am giving Timing the Trade a second reading at the moment and making notes and also have a book on options to read.

 

Focusing on specials betting at the moment and am posting bets to thread on here, will get back into financials when I feel I have a clear strategy, part of my problem is that I am a bit of a red setter, I have lots of ideas and have the coding skills to do some good analysis but never seem to get round to doing the actual work.

 

My ultimate ambition would be to make a living as a Specials Gambler/ Financial Trader with maybe a bit of poker and contract work thrown in.

 

Eurovision is a big night for me tommorow I think there is some real value on Betfair at the moment, Georgia for top ten at evens seems like buying money, they are last to perform, have a distinctive song and the singer hit every note in the Semi Final. Would even say top 5, at anything over 5 is value although that is obviously a more risky proposition.

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It's not good Karma to criticise others but I didn't find much meaning in this book and I am still waiting for someone to buy it from me on Amazon (Pesavento's was better but still really a lift from Douglas).

 

I like Timing the Trade, it's written in a really clear simple way and has really opened my eyes to volume.

 

 

Started Pesaventos "Trade What You See" but it just seemed to be a list of patterns and didn't mention volume.

 

What's the Douglas book?

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I like Timing the Trade, it's written in a really clear simple way and has really opened my eyes to volume.

 

 

Started Pesaventos "Trade What You See" but it just seemed to be a list of patterns and didn't mention volume.

 

What's the Douglas book?

 

Trading in the Zone - Mark Douglas

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I like Timing the Trade, it's written in a really clear simple way and has really opened my eyes to volume.

 

If you like that you would probably like Master the Markets by Tom Williams, you can download it free

 

http://www.tradeguid.../mtm_251058.pdf

 

Here's a great resource for traders (Articles and books on psychology/trading);

 

http://www.trading-n...nd_Reprints.htm

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Buy signal on SPY at 1820 today (on the train home from work);

 

SPY1820.png

 

 

I'd been expecting some downside for a while so this was somewhat against the grain of trade (but then, most of my trades are!).

 

Filled at 2244.75, market started rallying up to 2248, then I had to go out for a pre-arranged meal I so moved my stop just beneath breakeven (and recent support) at 2243.75. Came back home and see I have been stopped out for a 1 point loss.

 

Entry and exit on E-Mini NASDAQ futures

Screenshot2011-05-16at203944.png

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Sell signal on my indicator for SPY at 19:15;

 

SPY1915-1.png

 

Filled at 2364, market sold off down to 2358.75, before rallying back up to 2363.75, then started selling off very slightly, brought my stop down to breakeven as the close was approaching. It became apparent that the sell-off I was looking for wasn't going to come, so I watched it into the close, exiting 1 minute before the close at 2361 for a 3 point gain.

 

I shorted 1 point from the high; nice accuracy but since there was no real sell-off it wasn't very meaningful.

 

E-Mini NASDAQ entry and exit;

Screenshot2011-05-18at210738.png

 

 

I'm part of the way through "Phantom of the pits" by an anonymous floor trader, interesting reading.

 

It's here

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A frustrating day to be on the sidelines today (This is my day job week)

 

On the train home, I see there was a sell signal on my indicator working on DIA, at 15:05;

 

DIA1505.png

 

A nice clear sell signal, would have been filled at 2366 then...

 

A buy signal with my indicator working on SPY, at 16:20;

SPY1620.png

 

To anyone new to reading this these are charts of an indicator I developed, with charts showing it working on DIA, and also SPY. If I get a signal on any of SPY, DIA or QQQ I trade it using the E-Mini NASDAQ futures. All these markets are closely correlated therefore If I see a double bottom / double top using my indicator on any of the three, I use these as buy / sell signals respectively.

 

This is a chart showing where I would have shorted based on the first signal, then reversed to long based on the buy signal.

 

E-Mini NASDAQ intraday chart

Screenshot2011-05-19at183246.png

 

 

Had I been in a position to trade this today I would be up 24 points as I write this, with the trade still live. A day when the current net change on the NASDAQ is 10 points.

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A frustrating end to the week.

 

There was a sell signal on QQQ at 18:45;

Screenshot2011-05-20at205839.png

 

I missed this due to connectivity issues on the train on the way home.

 

E-Mini NASDAQ showing time sell signal was generated;

 

Screenshot2011-05-20at210010.png

 

An opportunity loss of 15 points.

 

Overall a loss of 4.75 points on the week. A shame the last opportunity of the week escaped me.

 

 

 

I'm looking forward to next week, I'm able to trade full time.

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Buy signal on SPY at 15:15 (I was on my lunchbreak for this one);

SPY1515.png

 

Filled at 2356, however this was not a low, market sold off over following 20 mins and stopped me out at 2352.25 for a 3.75 point loss.

 

E-mini NASDAQ entry and exit;

NASDAQentryandexit-1.png

That Double Bottom misses the previous "obvious" bottom.

Why are you ignoring it, please?

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That Double Bottom misses the previous "obvious" bottom.

Why are you ignoring it, please?

 

The intraday data I need to generate my indicator signal charts only goes up to 60 days;

 

60 day signal chart on SPY;

 

Screenshot2011-05-21at073136.png

 

There is no other bottom to match it with to the left. Looking at a daily timeframe signal chart there is a low, but at a different level.

 

Screenshot2011-05-21at073924.png

 

The indicator value of the February low was markedly different to the low yesterday, and I look for times where double tops or bottoms are exactly level, to trade them. Since there was no reference point of another bottom at the level of that bottom yesterday it's only clear that it's a low in my indicator with hindsight. I look for my indicator to "test" the level of a peak or bottom and turn around, that's when I put a trade on. The left side of the double bottom I traded yesterday was formed between the close on Tuesday and the open on Wednesday and I take that to be significant, even though it's not the lowest point the indicator reached. I have seen set-ups like that that work before.

 

If you look at the price chart yesterday, around where I got stopped out there were large volume spikes, I'm not sure whether that could be end of week squaring off or related to options expiry but it seemed an unusually sudden move.

 

As the low you refer to is now a significant low, if the signal line moves down to there and turns back up at that level next week or in the future, I'll use that as a buy signal.

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Based on the winning trades I have had so far, the average stop required, to withstand initial market moves prior to going a favourable direction, is 1.32 points. The vast majority are less than 3, most much less than that. The floor trader from the "Phantom of the pits" book explains that rather than wait for the market to prove you wrong, the approach to take is you wait for the market to prove you correct, and get out if it doesn't. So I'm reducing my stop to 3.25 points from now, rather than 3.75. This should cut out some of the loss from the losing trades whilst not adversely impacting on the performance of the system. It will also reduce the impact felt from a drawdown period in the future.

 

I have been actively managing the stops on my trades more recently, and this has already saved me some points from the losing trades. I will still manage stops when circumstances are appropriate, adding flexibility seems to be the way to go.

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A couple of stopped out trades today;

 

 

Buy signal on QQQ at 16:20

QQQ1620.png

 

Filled at 2310.25, market spiked down within 15 minutes, taking out my stop for a 3.25 point loss.

 

Entry and exit;

Entryandexit.png

 

Sell signal on QQQ at 1715;

QQQ1715.png

 

Filled at 2307.50, market rallied within 15 minutes taking out my stop for a 3.25 point loss.

 

Entry and exit;

Entryandexit.png

 

 

Today was a difficult choppy sideways market for most of the day...

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Sell signal on QQQ at 20:10;

QQQ2010.png

 

Filled at 2309.00, opted to use a tight 2 point stop on this one. It was a good spot to get in on the short side, and I'd know quite quickly whether it would work or not. I didn't want to leave much breathing space either since there was less than an hour left until the close. Market chopped for a bit before selling off into the close, manually trailed the stop 2.5 points behind before exiting 1 minute before 21:00 at 2302 for a 7 point gain.

 

Entry and exit;

Screenshot2011-05-24at210543.png

 

 

There was actually a buy signal at 18:40, one point from the low of the day (at that time), however as the market looked choppy like yesterday I'd gone out for a run around 18:10, and just got back a couple of minutes too late. An opportunity loss of 7 points on the way up, would have reversed it into the trade I actually took.

 

I am also keeping TD sequential on my charts now, of all the indicators there are, it most suits my counter-trend trading style, and although I am not going to be acting on the signals from it, I will monitor it to see if there are signals on that at the same time as my own indicator. It may prove useful at a later date.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

Edit - I see I posted the wrong price chart for the second trade yesterday, it's too late for me to edit the post now, here is the actual chart anyway;

 

Yesterday's 2nd trade

Screenshot2011-05-23at173140.png

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Just checked my daily time-frame indicator charts and see a buy signal for SPY triggered today on the close;

Screenshot2011-05-24at231212.png

 

 

Also....a buy signal triggered on the daily time-frame indicator chart for USO (Proxy for Crude oil);

Screenshot2011-05-24at231212.png

 

 

It's be interesting to see if the NASDAQ and Crude oil form a low tomorrow. In fact it looks as though Crude oil has already formed a low.

 

We'll see.

 

Crude oil futures;

Screenshot2011-05-24at232201.png

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It'll be interesting to see if the NASDAQ and Crude oil form a low tomorrow. In fact it looks as though Crude oil has already formed a low.

 

We'll see.

 

Well, certainly the NASDAQ has made some form of low today, frustratingly I didn't get any intraday buy signals to match up with the daily time-frame one so no trades today. If I'd have just gone long from the open it would have worked well today. It's quite irritating to make a good call and not make any money out of it...

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