Perishabull Posted July 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2013 It's been some time since I've worked on my trading but I had the opportunity over the last few days. I've been travelling a lot with work but that's finished until early September. I've become interested in order flow, specifically looking for signatures in the order flow that enhance understanding about what the 95% are doing. 95% of futures traders lose money but clearly they don't all at the same time, there is some form of distribution of losses involved. I would intuitively expect an apex of losses at specific points for those 95% at significant turns relative to the timescale examined.Using a similar methodology I thought the markets had topped on 22nd May; I reckon yesterday might have been the top, based on some unusual data, will post more later. And in fact they had topped, although it's clear this was only an intermediate top;DJIA futures (1 year);DJIA (same chart in closeup showing 22nd May)So at the weekend I finished an analysis of trading signals over a 3 month period, using data from two different providers. The technique shows a positive expectancy that looks worth pursuing. What I intend to do is test it using a SIM account in order to check if the results from the backtest are replicated in live testing.Interestingly the best results come by having a profit target that is only 67% greater than the amount risked per trade.The ideal scenario is that this is done over a clean consistent period of months however we are off on holiday to the Côte d'Azur for 18 days in August so it may well be that I need to extend the testing period to be sure to arrive at a statistically valid result.So I started with the live testing yesterday;I will be trading the strategy using DJIA futures.I will be annotating 1 chart per day traded, with all trades.Trade 29th July 3 trades yesterday, 2 wins and one loss for a gain of 140 per contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted July 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2013 Mrs Positive Deviant and I are away for a driving holiday around the highlands of Scotland, we hired one these babies; Great fun to drive! Talking of babies, Mrs PositiveDeviant is pregnant so when it comes to the trading I better step on the accelerator pedal now in terms of developing something that works, since time will be at even more of a premium in the future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 30, 2013 Report Share Posted July 30, 2013 Congrats, PD ! Btw, I am getting some good reports on the Weinstein system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted July 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2013 DJIA futuresTrade 30th July 4 trades today, 2 wins, 2 losses for a gain of 80 per contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted July 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2013 ....we are off on holiday to the Côte d'Azur for 18 days in August .... First stop, Monaco for 2 nights.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 31, 2013 Report Share Posted July 31, 2013 Looks nice - another Hong Kong, it seems, but with more casinos Very high property prices too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2013 Trade 31st JulyTwo trades yesterday, 1 win, 1 loss for a gain of 40 per contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2013 Trade 1st August Three trades today, two losses and one win for a loss of 20 per contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 2, 2013 Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Can you explain the last chart ? Will EUR lead stocks maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Can you explain the last chart ? Will EUR lead stocks maybe? You read my mind. Just briefly - my take is that if the markets are approaching a top then I would be looking for the EUR to continue lower then a break lower in equity markets to follow that would confirm the recent equity market highs as unvalidated divergence and therefore some form of short term or intermediate top having been formed. I'd also be keen to see divergence between the equity markets, eg for the Russell to be lower than the recent high in mid to late July with the others still above, and I don't see any divergence at this point; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2013 Trade 2nd August 3 trades today, one loser and two winners for a gain of 140 per contract.Weekly totals15 trades8 wins7 lossesGain of 380 per contract for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 3, 2013 Report Share Posted August 3, 2013 Have you studied Tony Caldaro's charts and comments? LINK: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/ SPX comment: "Short term support remains at the 1699 and 1680 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1717 and 1734. Short term momentum dipped to neutral during the pullback then ended the day overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1694. Best to your weekend!" I have been impressed by his track record over time This SPX chart and the weak volume does look toppy to me: If I was paying no notice to his remarks, I probably would have stuck with my TZA Calls, rather than turning them into a more neutral spread position. Yet, his E-Wave count suggests the upside move is not yet done: /source: http://stockcharts.c...c/1269446/tenpp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 4, 2013 Have you studied Tony Caldaro's charts and comments? /source: http://stockcharts.c...c/1269446/tenpp From his comments under LONG TERM; "When Int. v concludes, probably this month, this will end Major wave 3. A Major wave 4 correction of about 10% should follow. Then an uptrending Major wave 5 will end Primary wave III. A Primary wave IV correction should follow that. Finally, an uptrending Primary wave V should end the bull market in late-winter to early-spring of 2014. Until then the market continues to move higher." So thinks a 10% correction may be starting this month, that's a big call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 4, 2013 I've been looking at other methods of capturing what I'm doing in terms of live trading and may post some recordings when I'm in trades / concluding trades and so on, I recorded the video below just as a test, it doesn't really show anything. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZY7RAoUb0Q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 4, 2013 Report Share Posted August 4, 2013 Hmm. That moves very fast - how much did you speed it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 4, 2013 It's not sped up, it's me drawing trendlines outside market hours then scrolling along, rinse and repeat, it's just to check the quality of the recording, how it works etc It's actually pretty straightforward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 5, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2013 Trade 5th August 1 trade today, a win for a gain of 100 per contract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZR-3QoikTQ&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2013 Trade 6th August There was one final trade today, a long, I closed it just before the close at breakeven.5 trades today, 3 wins, 1 loss and 1 breakeven. A gain of 240 per contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2013 The CME group has a trade similation game on their website; It's quite disingenuous since it implies trading is all about reacting to news reports - it's also easy to make money so it's a bit upside down all in! Here's the link if you have 2 minutes to kill - http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/trading_simulation_game/start.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 7, 2013 Trade 7th August Two trades today, both losses for a loss of 120 per contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2013 I'm looking for all these markets to head lower now, to confirm a turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted August 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 8, 2013 On tarmac at Heathrow just waiting for flight to Nice to take off, just had a successful short complete that I placed remotely using my mobile. Isn't technology wonderful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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