Perishabull Posted July 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2013 It's been some time since I've worked on my trading but I had the opportunity over the last few days. I've been travelling a lot with work but that's finished until early September. I've become interested in order flow, specifically looking for signatures in the order flow that enhance understanding about what the 95% are doing. 95% of futures traders lose money but clearly they don't all at the same time, there is some form of distribution of losses involved. I would intuitively expect an apex of losses at specific points for those 95% at significant turns relative to the timescale examined.Using a similar methodology I thought the markets had topped on 22nd May; I reckon yesterday might have been the top, based on some unusual data, will post more later. And in fact they had topped, although it's clear this was only an intermediate top;DJIA futures (1 year);DJIA (same chart in closeup showing 22nd May)So at the weekend I finished an analysis of trading signals over a 3 month period, using data from two different providers. The technique shows a positive expectancy that looks worth pursuing. What I intend to do is test it using a SIM account in order to check if the results from the backtest are replicated in live testing.Interestingly the best results come by having a profit target that is only 67% greater than the amount risked per trade.The ideal scenario is that this is done over a clean consistent period of months however we are off on holiday to the Côte d'Azur for 18 days in August so it may well be that I need to extend the testing period to be sure to arrive at a statistically valid result.So I started with the live testing yesterday;I will be trading the strategy using DJIA futures.I will be annotating 1 chart per day traded, with all trades.Trade 29th July 3 trades yesterday, 2 wins and one loss for a gain of 140 per contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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