G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 DrB, is the red circle your stance on the gold market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Why? I am long gold. What's you position? I'l let you know when I go short, but I am continuing to lighten up as we go The stupidly complacent bullishness goes with the seasonal top, I suppose. Today (Oct.7th) is the ideal day for a seasonal top, as I have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 (Now Goldfinger is attacking me for "doubting" gold) Teasing you a little, not attacking. It's a trader/investor thing, I suppose. I am long gold. What's your position? Pretty long too. The stupidly complacent bullishness goes with the seasonal top, I suppose. Bullishness in gold is neither stupid nor complacent IMHO. Today (Oct.7th) is the ideal day for a seasonal top, as I have mentioned. Could become a great call for traders. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cranberryDog46 Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 What's amazing is that we have had the biggest ever monthly fall with interest rates at 0.5% Imagine what could happen if rates start rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Imagine what could happen if rates start rising. Won't happen. That's why Bubb's deflation scenario of rising rates does not work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eiji Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Typical that we get the biggest MoM fall in house prices and DrBubb is banned from HPC :/ Oh well, haters gonna hate, sucks to be them (like LP)! BTW, I don't think base interest rates will rise. We could see 0.5% base rate for another 3 or so years because the spending cuts pain has not even started yet. That and I foresee more money printing by the BoE in the form of "QE part deux - gilty as charged". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 must of been me buying last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cranberryDog46 Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Won't happen. That's why Bubb's deflation scenario of rising rates does not work. good job I've got half my savings in Gold and Silver then, but i've just realised I could get hammered for capital gains tax... is there any way around this, how long would you have to leave the country for to avoid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurtz Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 good job I've got half my savings in Gold and Silver then, but i've just realised I could get hammered for capital gains tax... is there any way around this, how long would you have to leave the country for to avoid I believe gold sovereigns don't attract CGT, but need to confirm this. You'd need to leave for 7 years at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Watson Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Won't happen. That's why Bubb's deflation scenario of rising rates does not work. I couldn't agree more. Falling prices + public sector redundancies = 2nd banking bailout If interest rates increased a surprisingly high % of UK borrowers would default The bankers are in charge, so there will be negative real interest rates Therefore it makes sense to hold foreign currency and, erh, GOLD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurtz Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Dental work's far to good for any of those people to be British. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crashman begins Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 One day my fellow bears... one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
libspero Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Dental work's far to good for any of those people to be British. One day my fellow bears... one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 The minutes of today's BOE meeting should be interesting, there's talk of a 3 way spilt. Wasn't the last round of QE unanimous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eiji Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 http://www.demotination.com/wp-content/upl...atient-bear.jpg Patient bear has now had enough and is taking action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crashman begins Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Patient bear has now had enough and is taking action! Lol Bears can issue a smackdown too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 One day my fellow bears... one day The photo made me laugh. Great looking place, black and white contrast, and a truly pathetic and unconvincing fear suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Has anyone considered the possibility that there might be some sot of aberration here? It's such a big number, perhaps we'll see rises from this next month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2010 Report Share Posted October 7, 2010 Has anyone considered the possibility that there might be some sot of aberration here? It's such a big number, perhaps we'll see rises from this next month? Sure, a small bounce is likely. But if this price report has broken the bullish psychology, then the old "crash cruise mentality" may take over, where people will insist on a "discount to market" as a reason to buy. Remember how we discussed this a few years ago: UK House Prices to fall up to 50% / CWR pt.3 "People are reading about price falls... the only real reason that people will buy is if they think they are getting a bit of bargain. Today's bargain is tomorrow's market price... And the first round of price cuts, induces another... (and so forth.)" The only thing that broke that downwards biased psychology was the huge cut in rates, to near zero. But that option is now "off the table" since interbank rates, and rates paid to savers are already near zero. If the BofE tries to go any lower, people will just take their money out of the banks, and stuff it into a mattress, or buy gold - and that makes capital totally unproductive. And the economy less efficient, and less able to grow. Some level of rates need to be paid to savers, or the economy will go ex-growth, like Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 8, 2010 Report Share Posted October 8, 2010 GEI traffic has crept up to above a sliding SP website /source: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/greenenergyinvestors.com The BTL brigade on SP must be under some serious stress ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 8, 2010 Report Share Posted October 8, 2010 FROM SOMEPLACE in a parallel universe, far far away: London Leads U.K. Home Prices to Two-Year High as Market Peaks, Groups Say By Scott Hamilton - Oct 8, 2010 U.K. house prices rose to a two-year high in September as demand picked up in London and the property market showed signs of peaking, research company Acadametrics Ltd. and LSL Property Services Plc said. The average price of a home in England and Wales rose 0.2 percent from August to 223,965 pounds ($357,000), the highest since July 2008, the companies said in an e-mailed statement in London today. Values were up 7 percent from a year earlier. The International Monetary Fund said this week that U.K. house prices look “high” and may face a “correction,” and Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax unit said yesterday that home values dropped the most since at least 1983 last month. Analysts in today’s report predicted that their index will show annual declines in most of England and Wales by December. “People know that imminent public-spending cuts will hit their household finances,” David Brown, commercial director of LSL Property Services, said in the statement. “While we won’t see a ‘double-dip’ in the housing market, we don’t expect market activity or house prices to continue their upwards march in the short term.” The increase in house prices last month came as the number of transactions rose 3.4 percent from August to about 66,000, according to the report. That’s an increase of 11 percent from a year earlier, Acadametrics and LSL said. “Historically, transactions slow in September, but there has been a welcome increase in activity this year compared to last,” Brown said. “The London market has been particularly active, with sustained investment from foreign investors and cash-rich buyers fuelling an increase in transactions.” Halifax, IMF Recent reports have indicated that the British housing market may face renewed weakness as the government prepares the biggest budget squeeze since World War II. Halifax said yesterday that house prices plunged 3.6 percent in September, and the IMF said on Oct. 6 that policy measures might not be enough to support the market. There is “little evidence” of an expected seasonal upturn in transactions before the end of the year as concerns over tax increases, job cuts and credit availability curtails demand from potential buyers, Acadametrics Chairman Peter Williams said in the statement. A reluctance to accept lower selling prices is also deterring sellers from putting their properties on the market, he said. “There is little to suggest an upturn in activity or prices while all of this works through,” Williams said. Acadametrics uses methodology employed by the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller price index, combining initial housing transaction data from the Land Registry and results from other price measures to produce an estimate for the most recent month. That number is then revised in following months. /see: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-07/l...trics-says.html *therefore, I believe the use a 3 months moving average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosco Posted October 8, 2010 Report Share Posted October 8, 2010 Here is an extract on the Real Estate Sector from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World_Economic_Outlook___Real_Estate_Report.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 8, 2010 Report Share Posted October 8, 2010 Here is an extract on the Real Estate Sector from the IMF World Economic Outlook. World_Economic_Outlook___Real_Estate_Report.pdf EXCERPT Double Dip in U.K. and U.S. Real Estate Markets? Comparing current and past housing cycles in the United States reinforces these observations (fifth figure). Residential investment remains severely depressed compared with past cycles, which can at least partially be explained by the pattern in house prices and household outstanding debt. The bleak outlook for house prices slows deleveraging for the household sector as mortgages remain underwater (that is, with debt exceeding the market value of the property). The problem is compounded because, in this recession, U.S. states where the house price bust was more pronounced are also where unemployment has increased the most. This relationship likely reflects the importance of the construction sector in these states’ economies as well as lower labor mobility resulting from problems in the housing sector. In both the United Kingdom and the United States, tax measures temporarily increased activity, but housing demand fell and prices receded after the recent expiration of these incentives (sixth figure).5 Although this was anticipated, the drop was larger than expected. Especially in the United States, given the limited success of mortgage modification programs and the shadow inventory from foreclosures and delinquencies, this has renewed fears of a double dip in real estate markets.6 A lot will depend on the path of economic recovery: if employment creation remains low, risks of a double dip in housing naturally increase. There are other threats to the fragile stabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinny Posted October 8, 2010 Report Share Posted October 8, 2010 " if employment creation remains low, risks of a double dip in housing naturally increase." I'd stand this on it's head - If we get a double dip in housing, employment creation remains low, or risks going lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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