jerpy Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 I read something tonight about Tesco that surprised me, if only because you would not think of them as a big player in the market concerned. Apparently TescoMobile (telecommunications), now has 2.5million customers. That's amazing for a company that you would still mainly see as a food retailer. Tesco just seem to have massive brand pull. Tesco direct is such a conveniant way of shopping for anyone wanting basic household goods. Bought a printer half price myself this year, photo's developed 5p each and the added bonus of Tesco points (double if using a tesco credit card) which are converted to air miles in my case. All without leaving my home. No wonder they keep growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 Are we on the verge of Tech boom part 2? I posted an article a week or so ago that highlighted the likely tech upsurge to come and overnight we have impressive numbers from Intel to give some support to this. Today on the FTSE, ARM Holdings, which had attracted some bear comments on this forum, is going great guns up about 9%, now over 550 on the back of those Intel numbers. I think over the weekend I will draw up a list of Tech stocks to follow. I can feel that the market may be in need of a new bubble going forward and Tech part 2 might just be it. I am very positive on Tech for a number of reasons. Smartphones & Tablets. Corporates sitting on cash piles, with some oldish equipment. Web is taking off. If you look at what is needed to make smartgrid work in the home............ Also I find the history of Direct Line Insurance interesting. Launched in 1985 to flog cheap motor insurance over the phone as an RBS subsidiary. RBS maybe did not understand its potentia,l as they gave its boss a bonus of £1 per policy sold, a deal they had to buy him out of a few years later! At the time a good part of the cheap car insurance industry was handled by high street brokers (shops) with fairly poor levels of customer service placing with Lloyds of London syndicates who gave equally poor service. The traditional industry made several mistakes in handling (ignoring) the newcomer, but it took time for the new sales (telephone) method to take off and they were not flying until the early 1990's. Whats left of the high street broking industry is now more professional, has been rather decimated and offers much better service + better service from its insurance partners. But is maybe struggling on competing on price, some are dying the death of a thousand cuts as their business gets whittled away. What I find interesting about the Direct Line comparison is the fact it took so long for customers to adapt to tele purchases, despite the phone being around for ever (almost). During the dot.com booom I always had a feeling it would take longer to get customers to turn on to the net for purchases and had a feeling it would be the decade 2010-2020 that would see real action. I still think 2010-20 can be significant in this respect. Sorry slightly off topic I know. Good time to start an internet business maybe! Or time to find an interesting punt. Being positive on a sector does not automatically mean I know what to invest in!!! http://www.directline.com/about_us/history.htm PS. No I dont work there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 I read something tonight about Tesco that surprised me, if only because you would not think of them as a big player in the market concerned. Apparently TescoMobile (telecommunications), now has 2.5million customers. That's amazing for a company that you would still mainly see as a food retailer. I remember.... was it last year, tesco beat Vodafone to be able to flog the iphone when o2 lost their exclusivity. Vodafone are supposed to be big in the mobile world I believe! My local tesco was very bust today at 3pm! Seriously thinking of sticking their shares in my shopping basket. I just dislike investing in UK firms when (i) they may have run out of room to grow in the uk and are relying on (ii) international expansion to keep the growth machine running and (iii) well regarded boss is about to step down. Despite the 3 negatives it still appeals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted January 15, 2011 Report Share Posted January 15, 2011 I thought I would start up a debate on this thread about entry points and when to buy. I'm not suggesting that anyone here should give away their "secrets" re when you buy, but it would be interesting to know the process that we go through when making the decision to buy or not. What is it that you look for? Do you use a mechanical set-up, technical and/or fundamental analysis, or one that mixes intuition and to some degree comes down to a feeling when the set up is right? I find purely mechanical set-ups difficult, in part because I've yet to come across a trading/investment platform that gives me the alerts I need for the set-ups that I have. I therefore have to spend some time monitoring potential watchlists and even then I quite often miss an opportunity. Short of developing my own software for this, and I currently don't have the knowledge or skills to do it, I suspect I will have to carry on as before. For myself it wont suprise anyone to hear I am not a chartist. Although GEI has taught me a lot about charts! When I first started dipping my toe in the water for myself about 6 years back, I (groan) mainly followed tips in the investment press. Still didnt do too badly (until the crash). These days its a real mix of trying to spot a long term trend, finding a reasonably valued play with potential and gut feeling. Am considering looking at playing investment trusts / ETF's for a less bumpy ride. If I can find it a stock with cash or cash equivilents that come to circa 70% ish + of its stock market value, no debt, with an underlying profitable business (a real business ie not investment trust) in a good sector is a fairly good bet. Definately ignoring Biotech's/exploration companies etc that eat cash.. Might sound like a tall order but Avocet were a recent example and I think that is the reason I bought NCipher a while back, benefited from them giving a buy back above market price and finally being taken over at a decent premium at the start of the crash. I have also realised one has to be able to adapt to market conditions. Read somewhere a few months ago that Darwin taught us its NOT survival of the fittest, its survival of the most adaptable. Watching stock market gyrations over the last few years together with a piece on how Guru's were able to get it right for a few years (or less) and then fall away, possibly on Huffington Post(?) a good while back. What I am trying to say is must remember to recognise the path of least resistance and act accordingly. http://ezinearticles.com/?Its-Not-The-Stro...&id=3316788 But Charles Darwin did not teach that. In fact, what he said was that survival of the fittest isn't about how the strongest survive, and it isn't about how the most intelligent survive. The ones that survive and thrive are the ones that are adaptable. That wasnt where I originally read it but I think there is a good lesson in there somewhere. Sorry, rambling agaIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted January 16, 2011 Report Share Posted January 16, 2011 Are we on the verge of Tech boom part 2? I posted an article a week or so ago that highlighted the likely tech upsurge to come and overnight we have impressive numbers from Intel to give some support to this. Today on the FTSE, ARM Holdings, which had attracted some bear comments on this forum, is going great guns up about 9%, now over 550 on the back of those Intel numbers. I think over the weekend I will draw up a list of Tech stocks to follow. I can feel that the market may be in need of a new bubble going forward and Tech part 2 might just be it. Hope so, Something I've noticed about the alternative energy stocks is that they haven't shot up with the oil price as they did in 2008 and are still well down, black rocks new energy fund is still 50% down on its 2000 launch price. Edited to add just noticed Robbie Burn's update and the filtronic share price move Friday, that was one on my watch list, I've a friend who works there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2011 Edited to add just noticed Robbie Burn's update and the filtronic share price move Friday, that was one on my watch list, I've a friend who works there. This is now at around 59p, so you do wonder if this is the "NT effect" as I can't see any news pushing up the price so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2011 I set up a thread a while back called The Hedge Fund Implode-O-Meter. It basically follows the number of HF's going bust since the crisis began. It stood at 115 back in June 2009 and today it is 117. Only 2 Hedge Funds gone bust in 18 months? Quite surprising. We are still only at 117! Should we be asking, WHAT'S GONE RIGHT ? http://hf-implode.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, this could get the BoE thinking. Probably not. 18 January 2011 Last updated at 12:56 UK CPI inflation rate rises to 3.7% in December UK inflation jumped in December with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rising to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in November. Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation - which includes mortgage interest payments - rose to 4.8% from 4.7%. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12214546 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is ocado overpriced? Recent IPO to the UK market has, like everything else, been going great guns recently. Bear raider Evil Knievil thinks that this is due quite a fall, although he bought at 184, currently 204. This is from the UKAnalyst free email. The Ocado (OCDO) float was extraordinary in that it was universally panned in advance of the stock being placed. I suppose the Americans took it. However, although the stock duly drifted lower from Day One, I stayed clear since I reckoned that everybody knew it was a dud and that therefore there would be no margin for the short seller. But the stock went down and down, bottoming at around 130p. Since there were no more short sellers, the price duly rose and rose and rose. I said to myself "There, but for the grace of God, go I." The price touched 205p and I therefore thought it was a dead certainty that an amazing sales improvement would be declared in yesterday's trading update. But nothing of the sort has happened and Ocado looks as bad today as it always has. I sold short at 184p and think that a profit on this position is at least ten times as likely as a loss. John Lewis has got about 100 million pounds of stock to go as of 1st February when the handcuffs come off. It would have to be mad not to sell. At 180p? I think not. It will be lucky to achieve 120p on average. Incidentally, Numis has come out with a buy note for Ocado. It uses a DCF model. This is always suspicious since it is only adopted where a PE argument is absurd. If it had used a PE approach it would have to recognise that at 180p or so 2011's PE is 145 and that it drops to 95 for 2012. Less attractive, don't you think? The fact is that if this business ever gets a sniff of success, Tesco will kill it. I call that execution risk. t1ps.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecoface Posted January 18, 2011 Report Share Posted January 18, 2011 Is ocado overpriced? We're seeing alot of majorly over-valued share prices from IPOs, and in immature companies (less than 10 years old). It's feeling a little like the dot.com nonsense again. Lots of money sloshing around trying to find a place to get a high return. IPOs offer massive return for a small initial investment - useful to offset poor performance in portfolios that have suffered or gone sideways. All bloody hype. Check out the hype surrounding BetFair's listing for example. I can see a very large correction in Ocado too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 19, 2011 Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 I set up a thread a while back called The Hedge Fund Implode-O-Meter. It basically follows the number of HF's going bust since the crisis began. It stood at 115 back in June 2009 and today it is 117. Only 2 Hedge Funds gone bust in 18 months? Perhaps the obvious answer as to the halt in decline, is a lack of liquidity pressure or improved liquidity however you want to view it. The site you link to has a bias negative slant to the downside and somewhat ignore's this. It is useful to remember, many of these were fundie's were forced market seller's. The events of two years back are well logged in my memory. For instance RAB were selling off many core positions and depressed many small cap's, I followed their various fund holdings closely and the eventual benefit of their exit, often saw an uplift in share price as an overhang cleared eg MMT was one such stock. As a consequence, it is a useful lesson, particularly when looking at small cap's, to look who is behind the stock in terms of holdings, with one eye to liquidity events of the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 19, 2011 Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is now at around 59p, so you do wonder if this is the "NT effect" as I can't see any news pushing up the price so quickly. Would not be the first time would it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 19, 2011 Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 We're seeing alot of majorly over-valued share prices from IPOs, and in immature companies (less than 10 years old). It's feeling a little like the dot.com nonsense again. Lots of money sloshing around trying to find a place to get a high return. Absolutely agree. Calling them down is hard work though, as it seems easier to hype them up, than shoot them down in the current mood. Never seen so many pumped stocks rise on hot air, particularly in the penny stock's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 Would not be the first time would it Yes, you do have to wonder, especially with the smaller company shares. The market makers must mark them up once they know that there is slightly more interest around a share than normal. It is uncanny the number of times NT buys one of these and suddenly it is off to the races. To be fair, NT does tend to hold for longer periods, but it wouldn't surprise me if he also has a short term strategy to take advatage of these moves and take the profit off the table. He does say that not all his trades are listed on the website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 Absolutely agree. Calling them down is hard work though, as it seems easier to hype them up, than shoot them down in the current mood. Never seen so many pumped stocks rise on hot air, particularly in the penny stock's I suspect they will simply fall faster once a correction comes. There is a correction due, but I don't think the bears should get too excited about it. I feel it will be more a pause for breath than the start of a big down move. There is more than enough good news around to offset the bad right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 I've mentioned the traditional UK bookmakers before on this thread and today William Hill produced a particularly good trading statement. It was very good considering that an enormous number of race meetings were cancelled over the winter and WH made up for it with its online activities. In one of the usual market getting it wrong phases, the traditional bookies have been seen as something on the High Street, perhaps now they will look at them as something more. Could this be the start of the sector being re-rated upwards? They have been in the doldrums for some time, but only time will tell. * Note - up 12% today as of writing. William Hill PLC Trading statement 19 January 2011 William Hill PLC (LSE: WMH) (William Hill or the Group) announces a trading update for the 13 weeks from 29 September to 28 December 2010 (Q4) and the 52 weeks to 28 December 2010 (full year). Fourth quarter The fourth quarter of 2010 saw a continuation of the positive Group net revenue trend seen in previous quarters in the year, driven primarily by strong growth from William Hill Online and from gaming machines in the shops. Retail turnover grew by c4% in December and by c8% in Q4, in spite of the impact of adverse weather on fixtures and trading, with 47% of scheduled UK horseracing meetings cancelled in December and with one weekend of minimal football. Retail over-the-counter (OTC) gross win margins in the quarter at 19.0% were above the Group's normalised range as favourable football results continued. Full year(1) The Group has delivered a strong performance at the top end of market expectations for Operating profit(2) for the full year, benefitting from this performance in Q4. The Board currently expects that the Group will have grown net revenue by c7% for the year as a whole, delivering pre-exceptional earnings before interest, tax and amortisation of around £275m (2009: £258.6m). Online William Hill Online performed strongly, with total online net revenue year-on-year growth of c24%. This was underpinned by a strong Sportsbook performance, with turnover up c57%, including c114% growth in in-play turnover with increased awareness prompted through advertising of William Hill Online's improved in-play offering. Sportsbook gross win margin was at the top end of the Group's expected range at 8.0%, resulting in net revenue growth of 95% versus 2009. Online gaming net revenues grew c5%, with a good performance in Bingo helping to offset the adverse impact of the French closure, which resulted in a flat Casino performance. This resulted in an Operating profit for William Hill Online c22% higher than the prior year and a non-controlling interest for Playtech of £5.9m for the quarter and £26.3m for the year as a whole. Online innovation continued during Q4 with the successful launch of the Day Trader financial betting product and the Match Predictor and Shake-a-Bet apps, which are available in Apple's App Store. Retail Retail turnover grew c8% year-on-year, driven by a strong machines performance following the roll-out of the 'Storm' cabinets. OTC gross win margin was at the top end of the normal trading range at 17.9%. Retail net revenue grew by c3% year-on-year, with machines gross win growth of c13% more than offsetting a c1% decline in OTC net revenue. On a net revenue basis, machines grew by 11%, reflecting the impact of the VAT increase in January 2010. Overall, this resulted in flat Operating profit year-on-year. Telephone Telephone delivered an Operating profit in the second half which means that the channel is likely to make a small Operating profit in 2010 as a whole. The Group previously announced that it expected to close the UK Telephone business and to open a new business within William Hill Online in Q4. This has been slightly delayed and is now expected to be completed by February 2011. Final results announcement The Group will announce its final results for the 52 weeks ended 28 December 2010 on 25 February 2011. Ralph Topping, Chief Executive of William Hill, commented: "This is a strong performance and I am delighted that, in particular, our Online business and the gaming machines in our shops continued to see encouraging revenue growth during Q4. Our continuing technological developments in what is a fast changing industry have underpinned growth and the doubling of our turnover from in-play this year demonstrates that customers are welcoming these innovations." http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/398189..._Statement_html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 19, 2011 Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nas down 1% S&P down 0.65% DOW flat. Hmm, I think it needs to catch up with the others Small short opened at 11836. (Tight stops as always). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nas down 1% S&P down 0.65% DOW flat. Hmm, I think it needs to catch up with the others Small short opened at 11836. (Tight stops as always). Could be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 Further to the William Hill post above, Betfair was up almost 6% today on the back of WH's result. Betfair, P/E 69, William Hill P/E 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 19, 2011 Report Share Posted January 19, 2011 Could be a good one. Hasn't gone as quick as I hoped, so stops moved down for a free bet. Lets see how it rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littledavesab Posted January 20, 2011 Report Share Posted January 20, 2011 re hedge funds implode - is that a count of hedge funds that went under - rather than those just closed down? + talking of hedge funds I like this weekly podcast from Loz N Belly (GLC Lawrence Staden and Steven Bell) - is less bearish than most of the financial podcasts (Motley Fool being the obvious other). They seem fairly accurate and I find it a good guide as to how the big money is thinking. Dont do individual shares but is helpful for the macro economic currency and big market picture. Presently seem more positive on the Euro than many out there. Also found on Itunes http://loznbelly.blogspot.com/ ------------------------------ re tech http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/art...82&pgid=rss Exchange-traded fund investors surveying the landscape by sector should find information technology more affordable than it has been in a long time. As such, investors who are interested in growth but at a reasonable price can consider several technology-themed ETFs. In this article, we take a look at what is going on in the technology space--particularly from a historic valuation standpoint--and discuss our favorite technology ETFs. For example, the largest and most liquid tech ETF, the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK ..... ... XLK), trades at a P/E ratio of about 15.1. That P/E ratio is down more than any other sector since the market peak in October 2007, despite the fact that the Census Bureau data show that new orders for durable goods in tech are down just 8%--much less than the 18% drop in new orders for all durable goods. So, while new orders are down less in tech, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2011 Big FTSE sell off today. Wonder if this is profit taking and the pause for breath? Wall Street is currently expected to open only slightly down, so I can only think that it is China's better growth figures, IR's may rise worry back on the table that is spooking the UK market. Still, I'm happy to see the miners having a sell off, Fresnillo, Hoch, African Barrick Gold, are falling into the watch territory. Will post some charts later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted January 20, 2011 Report Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hasn't gone as quick as I hoped, so stops moved down for a free bet. Lets see how it rolls. Well it was a nice ride while it lasted, but I got greedy looking for 100 ticks. Got near, but rose again and took me out for a flat trade. Can't win-em-all, but still, it's better than a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2011 Is ocado overpriced? Recent IPO to the UK market has, like everything else, been going great guns recently. Bear raider Evil Knievil thinks that this is due quite a fall, although he bought at 184, currently 204. Well, it's now 226p, so either there is a big shorting opportunity coming, or the market has found a new lovely. Ocado sees sales rise 27pc despite Christmas snow Ocado, the online supermarket, defied the snow to deliver a 27pc increase in sales in the run-up to Christmas. Despite the disruption caused to deliveries, Ocado claimed to have fulfilled 98pc of orders in the run-up to Christmas – thanks partly to the decision to fit "snow tyres" to its fleet of delivery vehicles. "They cost £300 to £400 per vehicle but paid for themselves many times over," said Tim Steiner, Ocado chief executive. Ocado was forced to reduce the price of its July flotation by almost a quarter, yet despite the price cut the shares almost halved in value in the weeks following the listing. The stock has since bounced back and closed 1p above its 180p flotation price at 181p on Monday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, which helped float the retailer, reiterated their buy recommendation on the back of the better-than-expected trading update: "The December trading indicates that Ocado had a solid start to FY2011 despite the challenging weather conditions," they wrote. However, Jonathan Pritchard, retail analyst at Oriel, warned that competition would increase in 2011. " It is impossible not to be impressed with what management has achieved but it gets tougher from here," he wrote. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...stmas-snow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No6 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think what I may add to this thread is a weekly article roundup (if I remember). Links to articles that might be worth a read. Here are a few good ones from the Motley Fool to start. A FTSE 250 Value Trawl http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/compa...fwflwlnk0000001 10 British Titans http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/...fwflwlnk0000001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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