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If anyone is interested in a good, free, traders magazine which can be downloaded as a pdf, then go to www.tradersonline-mag.com and register. Apparently it is paid for by advertising and you do have to agree to receive some email offers, but I've found that you don't get that many. It is monthly and there is an archive of issues for the last year which can also be downloaded. As it is free it is well worth a read.

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Can we get a thread going on who has heard from T14 schools about scholarships and/or financial aid? I know Darrow invites have been sent out, but has anyone heard anything from any other T14 schools?

 

Well, that's a strange one. :lol:

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Perhaps the obvious answer as to the halt in decline, is a lack of liquidity pressure or improved liquidity however you want to view it. The site you link to has a bias negative slant to the downside and somewhat ignore's this. It is useful to remember, many of these were fundie's were forced market seller's. The events of two years back are well logged in my memory.

 

For instance RAB were selling off many core positions and depressed many small cap's, I followed their various fund holdings closely and the eventual benefit of their exit, often saw an uplift in share price as an overhang cleared eg MMT was one such stock. As a consequence, it is a useful lesson, particularly when looking at small cap's, to look who is behind the stock in terms of holdings, with one eye to liquidity events of the future.

That's a great point.

I have seen that effect many times also.

 

Occasionally, I have been offered the chance to be part of a group to "clean out a stale long position."

If an opportunity like that is genuine, it can be a good buying opportunity.

 

A TURN?

 

I am getting many signs of a possible Turn starting here, so it will be interesting to see what happens to sentiment on this site, and in the markets

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A TURN?

 

I am getting many signs of a possible Turn starting here, so it will be interesting to see what happens to sentiment on this site, and in the markets

 

Can't see any reasons for a big fall, a correction which takes out some of the complacency that can be seen on Vix maybe, but why would there be a big turn? Still far more reasons to be bull than bear.

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Lots of talk of a China bubble. Jim Rogers doesn't think so, perhaps because that is where he is invested.

 

Justin Rowlatt: Do you really believe the Chinese boom can continue, because lots of people are saying there are all sorts of asset price bubbles that are going to trip the Chinese up in the coming years?

 

Jim Rogers: Well, the only asset bubble I see potentially in China is in urban coastal real estate, but real estate is not nearly the entire Chinese economy as it was in America and the U.K. Sure, they will have setbacks.

 

Justin, in the 19th Century, America had a horrible civil war. We had 15 depressions with a 'D.' We had very few human rights. We had massacres in the streets regularly. We had very little rule of law. You could buy and sell - you can still buy and sell congressmen in America, but in those days they were cheap. America had horrible problems, but they came out of that and had a pretty good 20th Century.

 

Justin Rowlatt: So what does that imply about where people should put their money; where are the sensible investments in Asia?

 

Jim Rogers: Well, the best way to invest in Asia in my view is to buy commodities, because the Chinese have to buy cotton, they have to buy zinc, they have to buy oil, they have to buy natural resources because they don't have enough.

 

If you want to invest in China and you own cotton, they are going to be very nice to you Justin. They are going to pay the bills, they are going to take you to dinner, they are going to pay you on time. If you want to invest in stocks, you have to do a lot of homework and know what you are doing. Another way is to invest in the currency. I own the renminbi. I expect the renminbi to go up a great deal over the next decade.

 

Justin Rowlatt: But commodities are already at relatively high prices, aren't they? I mean hasn't that horse bolted already?

 

Jim Rogers: No, no, the only commodity I know which is making an all time high is gold. Some commodities are up, yes. Sugar is up a lot, but Justin, sugar is still 50% below its all time high. How can you say that's bolted? Silver is going up, but silver is 40% below its all time high. Yes, commodities have been going up recently, but they are still extremely depressed on a historic basis.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12235196

 

 

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Russians are coming again.

 

Russian miner Nord Gold joins a rush of Russians set to list in London.

 

Yet another Russian company has announced firm plans to list on the London Stock Exchange.

 

Gold rush

 

This time, it's the turn of gold miner Nord Gold, a division of Russian steel giant OAO Severstal.

 

On 17 January, Nord Gold -- which digs for gold in its home turf of Russia, plus Kazakhstan, Guinea and Burkina Faso -- announced its intention to proceed with an initial public offering (IPO) in London. Today, the firm published its prospectus and announced the price range of its IPO would be between 300p and 390p a share.

 

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/compa...fwflwlnk0000001

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Can't see any reasons for a big fall, a correction which takes out some of the complacency that can be seen on Vix maybe, but why would there be a big turn? Still far more reasons to be bull than bear.

Think you might be right, for a while.

 

Had a nice 150 tick win on the dow drop from 12000, took profits to then see it go another 50, but heh, not complaining.

 

Still looking at the inverse fib line (Dow ~12370, S&P ~1260) for the next short point.

 

Guess the obvious question is why not go long until then? The answer is I am still bearish overall (probably always will be :D ).

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Think you might be right, for a while.

 

Had a nice 150 tick win on the dow drop from 12000, took profits to then see it go another 50, but heh, not complaining.

 

Still looking at the inverse fib line (Dow ~12370, S&P ~1260) for the next short point.

 

Guess the obvious question is why not go long until then? The answer is I am still bearish overall (probably always will be :D ).

 

The markets probably need to sell off a little, just to remove some of the complacency that has set in, but there isn't enough bad news to make any fall back last too long, at least that is what I feel. It may only come if the threat of double dip looks real and that may take another 6-9 months to pan out. The UK may struggle more than the US, but even then the FTSE may well follow the US and as it is more international it could still go up anyway. There are a lot of commodity/oil/resource type companies in the FTSE 100 now, so they are not likely to fall just because of what is happening in the UK. More likely to follow what happens in China, India, etc, but not the Chinese or Indian stock market which have been falling for a while. Will the Chinese and Indian economies still need commodities and resources going forward? I can only see one answer - yes.

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That's a great point.

I have seen that effect many times also.

 

Occasionally, I have been offered the chance to be part of a group to "clean out a stale long position."

If an opportunity like that is genuine, it can be a good buying opportunity.

 

Well would have been a great point, though did rush my post. Sorry all :(

 

Moving on, only once have I had such an opportunity. Now I know I don't have your resources, but i'm not quite a pauper, so is it a case of being in a circle, through your broker, how does one become involved Dr Bubb?

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Same old pattern here it seems, market goes down a bit, then doesn't want to fall any further as there is no real reason to do so. Up it pops again.

 

That and the news today in the UK of manufacturing activity, popping records again. Service sector news to come on Thursday probably won't be so good.

 

Manufacturing activity expands at record rate

 

LONDON (SHARECAST) - The UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 62 in January, well ahead of expectations and the highest reading since the survey began in 1992.

 

The data will lift hopes of economic expansion in the first quarter of 2011 following the surprise contraction in the last quarter of 2010.

 

It will also add to the dilemma facing the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as they contemplate whether to raise interest rates. High inflation appeared to be pointing towards a rise in interest rates, and led to two MPC members voting for a rise in rates at the next meeting, but the surprise fall in overall economic activity in the fourth quarter reported last week suggested rates should stay at 0.5%.

 

The latest data will strengthen the arguments of those who favour a rise in rates.

 

“The hackles of the hawks on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will no doubt be raised,” said Rob Dawson, senior economist at survey compiler Markit.

 

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast...tory_id=4014910

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This is about the 4th time since July last year that the FTSE100 has bounced off the lower trendline in the chart below. Parabolic Sar indicator (green dots) is now indicating a new upward move, at least in the short term. This would need to continue for 3-4 days to give strength to a bigger move upwards and it is just possible that this one might reverse quickly because of the gains yesterday and today. I wouldn't be surprised if the FTSE hit the yop of the Bollinger Band envelope on this move before reversing. Not much for the bears here.

 

ScreenShot108.gif

 

ScreenShot107.gif

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This is from the free weekly FibTimer email (they offer a paid service which I don't subscibe to, but I post this here as another view of the current state of the market).

 

S&P 500 Position - BULLISH

Nasdaq 100 Position - BULLISH

Gold Stocks Position - BEARISH

SmallCaps Position - BULLISH

U.S. Dollar Position - BEARISH

 

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Chart Analysis

 

Last week we wrote:

 

"In a generally down week for the market, there is a divergence beginning to show as the major indexes appear to be reacting to the selling differently. The Dow Industrials finished this week with a gain, up + 0.7%. The S&P 500 Index lost ground but only fractionally, closing the week with a - 0.8% decline. The Nasdaq composite lost - 2.4% while the Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX, followed in this strategy, lost - 2.4% and the Russell 2000 Index lost a whopping - 4.2%."

 

This week:

 

What started as a bullish week ended with a substantial reversal on Friday. The reversal dragged the S&P 500 Index into negative territory but the Nasdaq 100 Index and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index both finished with a gain.

 

For the SPX it was a bearish outside reversal week, with higher intra-week highs than the week before, lower intra-week lows and a lower close.

 

Such weeks are usually followed by lower lows. However Friday's selloff, which was entirely responsible for the reversal, was caused by a news event. News events are typically temporary and extremely unreliable a predictors of the future.

 

Friday started with buyers again pushing prices higher, but as the day progressed and the unsettling news of a possible government collapse in Egypt became more likely, the stock market reversed and by the close had sold off.

 

Egypt's troubles, if they continue, could adversely affect the price of oil. The Suez Canal could be closed if the country collapses and most of the oil from the surrounding countries flows through this critical passage.

 

===================

 

Conclusion:

 

The SPX is above its 50-day moving average and its 200-day average which is bullish. The 50-day average is now above the 200-day average which is technically bullish.

 

There is a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily and weekly charts. This is a strong indication that we have a long term bottom now in place. This pattern is marked in both below charts with (SHS).

 

The target for this advance is at SPX 1305.32, the August 11, 2008 rally high. It was reached this week but not surpassed. A close decisively above these 2008 highs would be hugely bullish and point to a resumption of the entire 2009 rally and considerably higher highs. The potential for an entirely new bullish wave pattern would be quite real.

 

The potential for profit taking at this level is also very real and even a new down wave is possible. We will be watching as events unfold. This week's selling, though based on a news event, could be the start of a normal correction. It could also quickly end if the crisis is resolved.

 

There is a great deal of talk about the January Effect. How the first week of January goes often predicts the direction of the stock market for the rest of the year. The first week is now history and it was a bullish one.

 

Another indicator that should be considered is the third year of the president's term in office. Typically the third year is very bullish and of course the third year is just ahead.

 

The SPX portion of this strategy is BULLISH and in the Rydex Nova S&P 500 Fund - RYNVX (or other bullish S&P index fund). The SPDR Trust - SPY can also be used.

 

SPX_110130_daily.gif

 

SPX_110130_weekly.gif

 

fibtimer.com

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This is from the free weekly FibTimer email (they offer a paid service which I don't subscibe to, but I post this here as another view of the current state of the market).

 

Bullish on nasdaq, that was a bit surprising for me.

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Bullish on nasdaq, that was a bit surprising for me.

 

Below is their nasdaq analysis.

 

Looking at all their charts there is room for a pullback and the trend will still remain bullish. I would suggest that the separation between the 50 and 200 day ma looks a little too wide now, the former getting a little ahead of itself.

 

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) Chart Analysis

 

"Last week we wrote that the Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX was rallying at an unsustainable rate. This week the index pulled back some 2.4% and has taken the edge off the parabolic rise we were worried about."

 

This week:

 

The bullish extremes we were concerned about for the Nasdaq 100 Index - NDX have been somewhat resolved after this week's advance and new intra-week highs were reversed hard on Friday in a news related selloff.

 

The NDX actually closed the week fractionally higher. There was no technical reversal or other bearish indicator. Just a news inspired selloff on Friday.

 

Could it take the NDX lower? Of course it could. It all depends on the crisis in Egypt. If the country is able to hold together, the declines could quickly be reversed. If the country continues to deteriorate, and especially if the Suez Canal is threatened, we could see further selling.

 

The NDX is still above its October 31, 2007 rally high even after two weeks of volatility and selling.

 

As with the SPX, the NDX is following a five wave pattern and it looks like we are nearing the end of a wave 5 advance. There is no obvious resistance level here as we have with the SPX, but still the NDX is without doubt struggling. The next real resistance is the 50% retracement for the entire 2000-2002 bear market decline. That is at NDX 2730.05. It was originally reached back on January 23, 2001.

 

What are the odds that we will reach this level without a substantial correction first? We won't say zero, but it must be close to zero. This is 19.9% higher than this week's close. We will correct somewhere in here, and likely it will be sooner rather than later.

 

Last week we wrote; "Could we soon see a wave 5 high and subsequent reversal? Certainly it is possible, but until we actually correct there is no way to be sure. This week's decline could be the beginning of a normal correction but as yet it is too early to say this with certainty."

 

Note that this week the NDX erased all the declines we discussed in the above paragraph, reached a new daily high, and then reversed lower in the news related selloff.

 

Support is now at NDX 2238.98, the prior resistance level. Below this the next support at NDX 2228 where the quickly rising 50-day moving average is.

 

Conclusion:

 

The NDX is above its 50-day moving average. The NDX is above its 200-day moving average. The averages have crossed and are confirming the advance.

 

The target for this rally, at NDX 2281.52, has been surpassed. We have little resistance ahead but somewhere in here we will see a correction. The correction may have begun this week with a news related decline. But one day does not make a new trend. If the news changes we could reverse again.

 

The NDX portion of this strategy is BULLISH and in the Rydex NDX 100 Fund - RYOCX (or other bullish NDX 100 index fund). The Powershares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) can also be used.

 

NDX_110130_daily.gif

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Weekly Dow still looks like a pretty strong uptrend to me, especially as the round number 12000 has now been breached.

 

ScreenShot109.gif

Personally, I place little importance in round numbers.

 

As Larry P. mentioned in his podcast, the rally on Tuesday (Feb. 1st - another good rally in the first trading day) failed to push the High-to-Low ratio and other indicators to extremes.

 

A downturn could start at any time. Neowaver Glenn Neely is talking about a 20% drop in the next three months

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Personally, I place little importance in round numbers.

 

The round number is only important in the sense that it has been breached, just as a fail to get over it can lead to a reverse. This often happens with individual shares on or around the round number. I think it is part of our nature to look at number targets like this, as there is a shared comfort from getting over a target, or a shared despair when it fails.

 

The more important point here, if you look at the weekly chart is that two previous highs have been breached on the latest move up and that has potentially set a new support level below.

 

As Larry P. mentioned in his podcast, the rally on Tuesday (Feb. 1st - another good rally in the first trading day) failed to push the High-to-Low ratio and other indicators to extremes.

 

A downturn could start at any time. Neowaver Glenn Neely is talking about a 20% drop in the next three months

 

I do wonder were some of these people are coming from. I suspect a lot of their predictions have more to do with wanting to make a name for themselves or be the "guru" that called the fall. Do some of these "guru's" let their own political and economic learnings cloud their view? I suspect so (I'd suspect out and out bulls of the same, bull or bear, I don't trust any of them and their "predictions"). A 20% drop, what is going to cause that? I can see a correction at some time to the new support levels, but buyers have consistantly come in on the sell offs and I just don't see the fear in place for a big move down. It would take something like an extreme islamic Government taking over in Egypt to do that, and I can't see that happening (even if it did it wouldn't last long, another Iran is not going to happen or allowed to happen). There is complacency as measured by Vix, but I think a small sell off could soon reverse this. I find it a little sad that the bears need constant bad news to keep their hopes alive, what lives they must live!

 

Here is something that Neely said in 2008.

 

It was NEoWave that allowed me to turn adamantly bearish on the U.S. stock market near the highs of 2000 and then, two years later, turn bullish again just six months after the 2002 low. Finally, in January of 2008 - once again, despite strong opposition - I turn adamantly bearish on the U.S. stock market. It was NEoWave that gave me the courage to announce to the world, in mid January 2008, that a new bear market began and that there was virtually nothing that could be done to stop the downward spiral of the U.S. stock market for the next 4-6 years!

http://www.bhcinvestment.com/2008/07/boon-...lenn-neely.html

 

100% wrong, although I suppose he would say he's still got a couple of years for things to reverse!

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I'm always fascinated by the market when it overreacts to events and a good example today (maybe) is Eaga which I mentioned above. The Governments decision to cutback and phase out the Warm Front scheme has resulted in its share price being slaughted, down around 24% on the day. Now, this is a company on a p/e of 7.3 before today and which has fallen a lot over the last 6 months on fears over the Warm Front scheme, but here's an interesting stat that I found from one report. It looks like this scheme provides only around 20% of the profits for the company, so does that justify a 50%+ fall in the share price over the last 6 months, especially when the P/E is hardly demanding and it is not dependant on that one scheme? The scheme itself continues for 2 more years and then you have the Green Deal and I suspect Eaga will pick up business there. I could understand the share price fall if it wiped out profits or put them at a loss or in a position like Connaught, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Be interesting to see how this develops going forward.

 

Seems like ages ago that I mentioned this company. Well, today the shares are on a rocket as apparently the company has received an approach from an unnamed company from ouside the sector. Wonder who that could be? Someone from outside the sector looking to buy into a green energy company. Could it be one of the big oil or gas companies?* I suspect that it would need to be one of the bigger companies. I thought at the time it looked cheap.

 

*Edit - the company has said that it is from outside the energy sector. Makes it even more intriguing.

 

Eaga said the company that made the approach is supportive of its plans to install solar photovoltaic panels on social housing buildings “in principle”. The company comes from outside the energy industry, Eaga added.

 

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast...tory_id=4023724

 

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - British energy-saving scheme operator Eaga Plc (EAGA.L) said on Thursday it had received an offer proposal from an unnamed company outside of the industry, pushing its shares up 19 percent.

 

Eaga, which has been hit by government spending cuts and which posted first-half results below market expectations in January, said the proposal from an "independent strategic party" may or may not lead to an offer being made for the company.

 

Eaga, which runs the Warm Front programme being phased out in government austerity measures, said the approaching party had confirmed in principle its support of Eaga's project to install solar PV throughout the social housing sector.

 

The company said it was at an advanced stage of the funding structure for this project.

 

Shares in Eaga were up 19 percent to 95 pence at 1336 GMT.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/03/...E7121MZ20110203

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UK Services Sector results better than expected.

 

UK services bounce back: reaction

 

Britain's services sector expanded at its fastest pace in eight months last month as business bounced back from the snow, despite a record jump in input cost inflation. This is what economists make of the January Markit/CIPS services PMI survey.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...k-reaction.html

 

ADVFN Market Report

 

Pressure is mounting on the Bank of England to raise interest rates to tackle rising inflation after data signalled that the economy has avoided a double-dip recession. Analysts said that stronger-than-expected results from the services sector pointed to an economic rebound this year in the wake of a 0.5% slide in GDP in the final three months of last year. The new data, they said, would allow the Bank of England to tackle rising inflation by increasing interest rates, which have been at a record low of 0.5% since March 2009, the Times reports.

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There is a interview below with John Bollinger, he of Bollinger Bands (it's a free interview from a paid service, so not sure how long it will be up).

 

Tim: All right. So, of course, everybody's talking about Dow 12000. You turn on CNBC and it seems to be on there, the footer of their screen all day today and yesterday. We're getting close here. What do Bollinger Bands tell us about Dow 12000 where we're at right now?

 

John Bollinger: Well, first of all, these big round numbers, milestones as some people call them are pretty important psychologically for the market. People often put a significance because it's not like a traditional trend line or some area that has an obvious visual meaning, but it's more a psychological and esoteric meaning. If you want to get a handle on how strong these things can be from 1966 to 1973 and into 1982, a 16-year span, the Dow repeatedly knocked on Dow 1000 and was unable to clear until finally in the fall of 1982, it broke through. So these round numbers have outsized importance and if we can get above this number in the next couple of days or so and stay there, that's the key. Get above and stay there then I think we'll probably be setting up another leg up in the market and certainly Bollinger Band analysis confirms that in several different ways.

 

Tim: Well, let's talk about that because everybody has their own take on using Bollinger Bands and I've read several kind of interpretations about how to use them. You mentioned several ways that this would be confirmed if it stays about 12000. What is it right now on the way you look at them that's telling you that?

 

John Bollinger: Well, if you look at a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Bollinger Bands, we are in the middle of what is known as a walk up the upper band. That's where the market is strong enough to get prices up to the upper Bollinger Band. In this case, we're talking the daily chart and we're talking 20-period Bollinger Bands with the upper and lower band spread by two standard deviations. So we're doing a walk up the upper band which is the strongest type of behavior the market ever shows. Typically, what you'll get in this environment and we've seen it already once in here is that you'll get a pullback for a couple of days that takes you back to the middle band and then if you are indeed in a walk and the market really is strong then you go right back and tag the upper within a couple of days. And that's exactly what we saw earlier this month, coming up on a big round number like 12000 in a very strong configuration are used that will be able to break through 12000 in a few days as, say, above 12000 will be a key psychological fact for investors.

 

Tim: Now, do you like to see this then close a couple of candles or a couple of bars and stay above that, not even deep down into 12000? How many days do you want to really see it stay above their close, above their full bars above 12000?

 

John Bollinger: I don't actually mind if we cross above one of these milestones and then pull back beneath it and then try again. That's a very common pattern. As long as you hold the basic positive Bollinger Band configuration I have no problem with that whatsoever. And of course, the longer you stay above that psychological level, the better the chances are that what you're really doing is setting up a situation for another higher. This is especially true now because there's so much money on the sidelines. We had a very rough market for the past couple of years and a lot of people have pulled all of their money out of the market. Some people pulled some of their money out. But there are huge, huge, huge amounts of money sitting on the sidelines. So when you cross one of these psychological barriers, it's a sort of thing that investors pay attention to and if it gets mentioned on the news, it gets talked up a lot, as you mentioned earlier, it's been chatted up quite a bit on CNBC but not only on CNBC. It actually gets mentioned in the mainstream media. I was out for lunch a little bit earlier and I heard it on the regular news on the radio as I was coming back from lunch. So getting above these key levels gets investors' intention. They realize that they are missing out on the market that they are -- that good things are happening to stock prices and that their alternatives bombs in money market funds and things like that are yielding so very little in comparison that it's really going to be a powerful factor in getting some, not very much, I will say, but some of that money off of the sidelines and back into the market.

 

http://www.traderinterviews.com/free/2011-...gerOnDow12K.php

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A few articles from this week.

 

Why The FTSE Isn't British

 

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/...fwflwlnk0000001

 

A 100% Accurate Stock Market Indicator... Since 1940

 

http://www.dailywealth.com/1619/A-100-Accu...ator-Since-1940

 

Country X

 

http://www.dailywealth.com/1621/Curtis-Fre...his-You-Can-Too

 

The real scandal over bankers' bonuses is how banks can afford to pay them

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/blog/bankers-bonu...n=Money+Morning

 

 

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Dogs share watch 2011 update:

 

HMV - 25.50p now 24.75

Dixons Retail - 23.71p now 21.01

Cable & Wireless Communictions - 49.61p now 48.28

Debenhams - 73.80p now 65.05

Punch Taverns - 76.05p now 66.20

 

Added

 

Yell Group - 10.00p

 

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